Just watch the onboard lap posted on this thread and you will see the car is driving like it is on rails, responding accurately to steering and braking inputs, there are no wild steering corrections, there are no lockups and there is excellent traction in S3. The engine also sounds much better than it has so far and the drivability appears to be good however the overall power deficit is still very big. Ricciardo who is as talented as they come but was lost in S3 while Verstappen was only 0.5 seconds from pole. Does that mean that Verstappen is flattering the car while Ricciardo's performance is Red Bull's actual benchmark? This whole cherry picking business trying to forward one's agenda is actually getting tiring.
One thing I thought was interesting is that Fernando's laps were very consistent. It looks like there was a surprising amount of track evolution and for every single lap and every single sector, he went faster than his previous hot lap - with one exception, S2 in Q3 where he lost 0.009s compared to his best. I don't think anyone else was quite so consistent and he dealt with the conditions better.
All the 4 circuits before Barcelona had very high power sensitivity. Barcelona has relatively lower power sensitivity and Mclaren's upgrades have shown results. Honda's drivability has improved and performance has also improved albeit marginally. As Mika Hakkinen has said today in Ted's Notebook that this a massive fillip to the team because you simply cannot put in a good time in Barcelona without having a very well balanced car which is good in all types of corners. I rest my case.
Barcelona is definitely on the low end of power sensitivity. Maybe 4 lowest? Fernando was 0.3s from Q3 in Shanghai and given the different track characteristics I would have expected us to be closer to Q3 based on the track layout.
This means that the chassis/aero makes a bigger difference. It also means that the driver makes a bigger difference. It looks like we might have brought a better upgrade package than the teams we were up against. On the PU side, there were a bunch of separate upgrades but I suspect the biggest was solving/reducing the vibrations problem which in turn helped improve driveability. Improving the driveability would have also improved the tyre warm-up as well. However, we have struggled a bit in the past at Barcelona with balance and tyre warm-up issues so I wasn't that confident we would get to Q3 - I would have been happy with P11.
So to summarise: I think we have gained on the competition but not as much as the raw numbers indicate.
However, there's some things about the results here that I feel a bit confused about. I'm pretty sure we haven't gained that much in pure hp but the power gap feels smaller than I had expected, particularly when you consider the time gap in S3. Perhaps the team optimised the setup for S2 rather than S3? Even so, the pattern of relative performance wasn't what I was expecting.