307 replies to this topic

[Madras]

There's nothing strange about the two Toyotas being fueled the same. Their drivers are very close in ability, fueling them the same gives the faster driver in the race the best strategy, whoever that might be.

[Madras]

Originally posted by The Big Guns
it doesn't take into account driver weight. their weight difference probably makes up for a one lap difference.

Driver weight is included in the 605kg car weight. It is not relevant. You've been here since 2002 and dont know that??

[slideways]

Originally posted by giltkid


I think Jense may secretly be very pleased to have Jarno next to him on the grid. Keeps the pressure from the others off.

Only if he wins the first corner. don't forget Jarno was less than a tenth slower than him!!

[yr]

What the F@CK is the reason for multiply posters here to post their own guessing of fuel loads as a fact? I mean, Jesus, could you guys just get a grip and wait for revealing of actual real numbers from FIA rather than make up some figures and hope you got it right?

Is it too much to ask that if you post your guessed figures, you could at least add in your post that it was your wild guess? Please don´t just give us a list like:

Vettel 1 kg
Button 10001 kg
Räikkönen 7 kg
Kubica 209994 kg
etc

Thanks in advance.

[BiH]

if it doesn't rain right away then button will run away with the victory....but hopefully it rains from the beginning otherwise button will build a gap good enough that even rain wont help others unless it rains hard enough so they run under sc.

[Jambo]

1 6 Nick Heidfeld 17:32:31 304.9
2 7 Fernando Alonso 17:20:31 304.0
3 8 Nelsinho Piquet 17:16:03 303.8
4 20 Adrian Sutil 17:03:22 302.6
5 21 Giancarlo Fisichella 17:21:15 302.5
6 11 Sebastien Bourdais 17:11:17 302.2
7 2 Heikki Kovalainen 17:39:17 301.6
8 15 Sebastian Vettel 17:33:05 301.4
9 1 Lewis Hamilton 17:33:51 301.1
10 5 Robert Kubica 17:30:30 301.0
11 12 Sebastien Buemi 17:12:04 300.8
12 22 Jenson Button 17:32:34 300.5
13 23 Rubens Barrichello 17:19:33 299.7
14 14 Mark Webber 17:33:55 299.5
15 4 Kimi Räikkönen 17:30:25 299.4
16 10 Timo Glock 17:19:29 298.4
17 9 Jarno Trulli 17:31:18 298.2
18 3 Felipe Massa 17:07:34 298.0
19 17 Kazuki Nakajima 17:31:42 298.0
20 16 Nico Rosberg 17:33:12 297.5

The gaps aren't as big as I thought they would be concerning top speed.

[Madras]

Originally posted by yr
What the F@CK is the reason for multiply posters here to post their own guessing of fuel loads as a fact?

I agree.

[F.M.]

My predictions:

Grid pos ..... Driver ........... Weight ..... Nr. of laps ..... Pitstop lap
1 .............. Button ............ 660 .......... 22,0 ............... 20
2 .............. Trulli .............. 656,5 ........ 20,6 ............... 19
3 .............. Glock ............. 656,5 ........ 20,6 ............... 19
4 .............. Rosberg .......... 656 ........... 20,4 ............... 18
5 .............. Webber .......... 656 ........... 20,4 ............... 18
6 .............. Kubica ............ 663 ........... 23,2 ............... 21
7 .............. Raikkonen ....... 662,5 ......... 23,0 ............... 21
8 .............. Barichello ........ 664,5 ........ 23,8 ............... 22
9 .............. Alonso ........... 680,5 ......... 30,2 ............... 28
10 ............ Heidfeld .......... 692 ........... 34,8 ............... 33
11 ............ Nakajima ......... 683,4 ........ 31,4 ............... 29
12 ............ Hamilton ......... 688 ........... 33,2 ............... 31
13 ............ Vettel ............. 647 .......... 16,8 ............... 15
14 ............ Kovalainen ...... 688,9 ......... 33,6 ............... 32
15 ............ Bourdais ......... 670,5 ......... 26,2 ............... 24
16 ............ Massa ............ 689,5 ......... 33,8 ............... 32
17 ............ Piquet ............ 681,9 ......... 30,8 ............... 29
18 ............ Fisichella ........ 680,5 ......... 30,2 ............... 28
19 ............ Sutil .............. 655,5 ......... 20,2 ............... 18
20 ............ Buemi ............ 686,5 ......... 32,6 ............... 31

[Chezrome]

Originally posted by Madras


Driver weight is included in the 605kg car weight. It is not relevant. You've been here since 2002 and dont know that??

You know what? I would find it fantastic if we didn't try to look who is saying something (By judging his 'member since') but what someone is saying.

[BiH]

the good thing for alonso heidfeld is going to hold the rest of the field up considering his fuel load.

[niallmckiernan]

Originally posted by BiH
the good thing for alonso heidfeld is going to hold the rest of the field up considering his fuel load.

while he goes longer than anyone in front

[metz]

Originally posted by Madras
There's nothing strange about the two Toyotas being fueled the same. Their drivers are very close in ability, fueling them the same gives the faster driver in the race the best strategy, whoever that might be.

Nevertheless, it's rarely done.
My guess, they are counting on a SC.

[Ricardo F1]

Originally posted by F.M.
My predictions:

Damn that's good.

[wdh]

Originally posted by Madras
There's nothing strange about the two Toyotas being fueled the same. Their drivers are very close in ability, fueling them the same gives the faster driver in the race the best strategy, whoever that might be.

Well, it actually positively disadvantages the other driver.
He has to stop early, so has been carrying a few kilos of unproductive freight for the first stint.
Unless he has already stopped early, for example to change the nose.


But that sort of thinking would maybe make some kind of sense if your aim was to maximise the chance of a win, and you were prepared to sacrifice the second driver 'on the day'. And make that decision of who was to go for the win before the first scheduled pitstop.

[tormave]

Originally posted by BiH
the good thing for alonso heidfeld is going to hold the rest of the field up considering his fuel load.

If it's dry I don't think there is any chance he will be able to hold Vettel given the weight difference, especially if Vettel runs the 1st stint with option tyres.

[niallmckiernan]

Originally posted by yr
What the F@CK is the reason for multiply posters here to post their own guessing of fuel loads as a fact? I mean, Jesus, could you guys just get a grip and wait for revealing of actual real numbers from FIA rather than make up some figures and hope you got it right?

Is it too much to ask that if you post your guessed figures, you could at least add in your post that it was your wild guess? Please don´t just give us a list like:

Vettel 1 kg
Button 10001 kg
Räikkönen 7 kg
Kubica 209994 kg
etc

Thanks in advance.

Well it is a forum. Peoples views tend to pop up now and then.

Also, in my case there was no guessing involved with car weights from here and the approx. fuel weight of one lap divided into the total weight minus the norm car weight.

[RodrigoL]

Originally posted by yr
What the F@CK is the reason for multiply posters here to post their own guessing of fuel loads as a fact?

Some of us actually got the majority correct

[bobqzzi]

Are the KERS cars actually able to get down to minimum weight?

[Andy35]

Lets have a quick summary of the two top corporate teams in F1 for this year.

Ferrari good off the track, bad on the track.
McLaren bad off the track, bad on the track.

It does seem that the rule changes have caught these two behemoths out.

I think it is very good for the sport when everything is mixed up.

Regards

Andy

[Madras]

Originally posted by Chezrome


You know what? I would find it fantastic if we didn't try to look who is saying something (By judging his 'member since') but what someone is saying.

I did both, simply because I'm tired of how often people get it wrong, and someone who's been posting here for 7 years should know.

[metz]

Originally posted by bobqzzi
Are the KERS cars actually able to get down to minimum weight?

For sure. KERS is only 30 Kg.
It was considered an issue for Williams, who's mechanical KERS is reported as 50 Kg.
(they are of course not running it)

[Madras]

Originally posted by wdh


Well, it actually positively disadvantages the other driver.

It does but only by one lap. It's not a big deal.

[yr]

Originally posted by niallmckiernan


Well it is a forum. Peoples views tend to pop up now and then.

But when you are just stating your own opinion (instead of fact) you should mention it, don´t you agree?

You can´t just go and do a list according your wishes, like this:

Button xxx kg
Trulli xxx kg
Vettel xxx kg
etc

Without telling it´s just your fantasy, not actual fact. That should be obvious.

[tkulla]

Originally posted by Chezrome


You know what? I would find it fantastic if we didn't try to look who is saying something (By judging his 'member since') but what someone is saying.

I can understand why you'd want that (as a new member), but there is some validity to this kind of "profiling". The fact is that there are people that open a new account and immediately come out and troll. It's a minority of new posters, but significant enough that I look at the member info when I see an inflammatory post. But it does work both ways, as in this case when someone is surprised that a long-time fan is off base (hey, it happens to all of us from time to time).

Back OT, I'm surprised that none of the top runners has gone light. With threat of rain a three-stop race is certainly not out of the question. And Ross and Co. nailed it as to getting Button the pole and more fuel than his nearest rivals. If he gets a good start and beats Trulli to the first corner it will be smooth sailing (unless a monsoon hits).

[yr]

Originally posted by RodrigoL


Some of us actually got the majority correct

That doesn´t remove the fact you should always mention if it is your guess or fact what you post, eh?

What if I post here that Alonso will win tomorrow and Button will be DQ´d? it could happen, but it doesn´t mean its a fact yet, even if I say so.

[ville]

Here are my pitstop estimates for Malaysian GP. These may be quite a bit off because I had to guess many of the variables. Let's hope we get normal start to the GP so we can compare real pitstops with these estimates.

Australian GP estimates

Assumptions:
Fuel consumption: 2.64 kg/lap, 2.38 kg/5 km (Williams preview) (I had this wrong in my Australia estimates, didn't notice it was normalized to 5 km)
Slow lap (pit to the grid + warm up) fuel consumption: 40 % of normal lap
Car + driver weight without fuel in the beginning of the Q2: 607 kg
Car + driver weight without fuel in the beginning of the race: 612.5 kg (too much?)
Average time penalty estimated Q2-Q3 time differences: 0.073 s per lap of fuel and 0.028 per kg of fuel (without Alonso who did just one run)

Pit stops.

Driver		Team		  Calc pit lap  Pit lap guess Remaining laps
Vettel		Red Bull	  12.276		12			44
Sutil		 Force India   15.497		15			41
Rosberg	   Williams	  15.687		15			41
Webber		Red Bull	  15.687		15			41
Glock		 Toyota		15.876		15			41
Trulli		Toyota		15.876		15			41
Button		Brawn GP	  17.203		17			39
Räikkönen	 Ferrari	   18.150		18			38
Kubica		BMW		   18.340		18			38
Barrichello   Brawn GP	  18.908		18			38
Bourdais	  Toro Rosso	21.182		21			35
Alonso		Renault	   24.973		24			32
Fisichella	Force India   24.973		24			32
Piquet		Renault	   25.503		25			31
Nakajima	  Williams	  26.072		26			30
Buemi		 Toro Rosso	27.247		27			29
Hamilton	  McLaren	   27.815		27			29
Kovalainen	McLaren	   28.156		28			28
Massa		 Ferrari	   28.384		28			28
Heidfeld	  BMW		   29.331		29			27

Fuel corrected qualifying performance.

FC Pos		Pos		   Driver		Team		  Q3-FC		 Q3			Q2			Q1			Gap
1			 1			 Button		Brawn GP	  93.715		95.181		93.784		95.058		
2			 2			 Trulli		Toyota		93.903		95.273		93.990		94.745		0.189
3			 4			 Barrichello   Brawn GP	  94.060		95.651		94.387		94.681		0.345
4			 5			 Glock		 Toyota		94.320		95.690		94.258		94.907		0.606
5			 6			 Rosberg	   Williams	  94.394		95.750		94.547		95.083		0.680
6			 3			 Vettel		Red Bull	  94.411		95.518		94.276		94.935		0.697
7			 7			 Webber		Red Bull	  94.441		95.797		94.222		95.027		0.727
8			 8			 Kubica		BMW		   94.557		96.106		94.562		95.166		0.842
9			 9			 Räikkönen	 Ferrari	   94.634		96.170		94.456		95.476		0.920
10			10			Alonso		Renault	   95.625		97.659		94.706		95.260		1.911
11			11			Heidfeld	  BMW									   94.769		95.110		0.063
12			12			Nakajima	  Williams								  94.788		95.341		0.082
13			13			Hamilton	  McLaren								   94.905		95.280		0.199
14			14			Kovalainen	McLaren								   94.924		95.023		0.218
15			15			Bourdais	  Toro Rosso								95.431		95.507		0.725
16			16			Massa		 Ferrari												 95.642		0.135
17			17			Piquet		Renault												 95.708		0.201
18			18			Fisichella	Force India											 95.908		0.401
19			19			Sutil		 Force India											 95.951		0.444
20			20			Buemi		 Toro Rosso											  96.107		0.600

Driver performance in Q3 compared to team performance in Q2. (Fuel corrected Q3 time minus best time of the team in Q2.)

Driver		Team		  Q3-FC BTQ2
Rosberg	   Toyota		-0.153
Trulli		Toyota		-0.087
Button		Brawn GP	  -0.069
Kubica		Toyota		-0.005
Räikkönen	 Ferrari	   0.178
Vettel		Red Bull	  0.189
Webber		Red Bull	  0.219
Barrichello   Brawn GP	  0.276
Glock		 Toyota		0.330
Alonso		Renault	   0.919

Teammate battle. Fuel corrected time difference to teammate in the latest comparable of the three qualifying sessions.

Driver		Team		  Team Battle   TB Decider
Bourdais	  Toro Rosso	-0.600		Q1
Alonso		Renault	   -0.448		Q1
Trulli		Toyota		-0.417		Q3
Button		Brawn GP	  -0.345		Q3
Rosberg	   Williams	  -0.241		Q2
Kubica		BMW		   -0.207		Q2
Räikkönen	 Ferrari	   -0.166		Q1
Fisichella	Force India   -0.043		Q1
Vettel		Red Bull	  -0.030		Q3
Hamilton	  McLaren	   -0.019		Q2
Kovalainen	McLaren	   0.019		 Q2
Webber		Red Bull	  0.030		 Q3
Sutil		 Force India   0.043		 Q1
Massa		 Ferrari	   0.166		 Q1
Heidfeld	  BMW		   0.207		 Q2
Nakajima	  Williams	  0.241		 Q2
Barrichello   Brawn GP	  0.345		 Q3
Glock		 Toyota		0.417		 Q3
Piquet		Renault	   0.448		 Q1
Buemi		 Toro Rosso	0.600		 Q1

Time penalties per lap in the first stint compared to the lightest car.

Driver		Fuel Penalty
Vettel		0.000
Sutil		 0.235
Rosberg	   0.249
Webber		0.249
Glock		 0.263
Trulli		0.263
Button		0.360
Räikkönen	 0.429
Kubica		0.443
Barrichello   0.484
Bourdais	  0.650
Alonso		0.927
Fisichella	0.927
Piquet		0.966
Nakajima	  1.007
Buemi		 1.093
Hamilton	  1.134
Kovalainen	1.159
Massa		 1.176
Heidfeld	  1.245

Edit: Adjusted formatting for the new BB.

Edited by ville, 30 April 2009 - 14:25.

[Barramut]

One thing I noted this year is that drivers were not making mistakes in the last corner, before the main straight.
I don't know if its the slick tires or if bcs only Buemi is a novice.

[Kelateboy]

Originally posted by BiH
the good thing for alonso heidfeld is going to hold the rest of the field up considering his fuel load.

Assuming of course Alonso could get off the starting block faster than Heidfeld. If Heidfeld beats him to the first corner, he could be stucked behind Heidfeld for a long time.

-KB

[wdh]

Originally posted by Madras
It does but only by one lap. It's not a big deal.

Its not so much the stopping earlier.
Its the being 2.5kg heavier than needed if you were going to stop that 1 lap earlier.
And being that much heavier all the way.
And, according to another post (No 7, this thread), thats about 1/10 th sec slower per lap at Sepang.
Which WOULD add up to a big deal, a couple of seconds on an approx 20 lap (50kg) stint ...

[Madras]

Originally posted by tkulla


I can understand why you'd want that (as a new member), but there is some validity to this kind of "profiling". The fact is that there are people that open a new account and immediately come out and troll. It's a minority of new posters, but significant enough that I look at the member info when I see an inflammatory post. But it does work both ways, as in this case when someone is surprised that a long-time fan is off base (hey, it happens to all of us from time to time).

I've seen idiotic posts here from veteran members, the whole crying "troll" thing on this board gets pretty tiring. I've been accused of being a troll and it's really annoying when you're not trying to troll at all but others see things differently from you and so call you a troll.

[Driver]

Originally posted by Madras


It does but only by one lap. It's not a big deal.

The disadvantaged driver is carrying one extra lap of fuel...on EVERY lap. If the info above is right, that's about 0.1 seconds per lap of about 20 laps for a total of about 2 seconds penalty. I don't know many drivers who view 2 seconds as "not a big deal."

[tkulla]

Originally posted by Madras


I've seen idiotic posts here from veteran members, the whole crying "troll" thing on this board gets pretty tiring. I've been accused of being a troll and it's really annoying when you're not trying to troll at all but others see things differently from you and so call you a troll.

Agreed. Some people play the troll card whenever they read something they don't like. And yes, veteran members aren't immune from controversy, but it's rare that they are intentionally rude and obtuse.

[Madras]

Originally posted by Driver


The disadvantaged driver is carrying one extra lap of fuel...on EVERY lap. If the info above is right, that's about 0.1 seconds per lap of about 20 laps for a total of about 2 seconds penalty. I don't know many drivers who view 2 seconds as "not a big deal."

Two seconds in an entire race isnt that big a deal. Andit allows the fastest driver to get the optiml pit strategy. Notice how many cars have the same fuel load as the Toyotas.

[Driver]

Originally posted by Madras


Two seconds in an entire race isnt that big a deal. Andit allows the fastest driver to get the optiml pit strategy. Notice how many cars have the same fuel load as the Toyotas.

Um...none (a number are close...but without knowing exact fuel efficiency numbers for every car/driver combo, we really don't know).

A few are close...but if we're going to choose our strategy based on what is popular, look now many teams have their drivers identically fueled. Also none.

Edit: 2 seconds often changes the outcome of a race...how much do you think most teams would be willing to pay for 2 seconds? I bet you could get a pretty good amount of money if you could reliably gain a team 2 seconds per race.

[Matt Somers]

It is entirely possible however dependant on fuel management from the driver that one can make that fuel last a little lnoger anyways ;) Also the team could do back to back stops if the 2 drivers get split sufficiently in the pack?

[Madras]

Originally posted by Driver


Um...none (a number are close...but without knowing exact fuel efficiency numbers for every car/driver combo, we really don't know).

A few are close...but if we're going to choose our strategy based on what is popular, look now many teams have their drivers identically fueled. Also none.

You have to look in the 2.5kg range.

I'm pretty sure Toyota have given each driver the optimal pit strategy according to their calculations and told them to race for it.

Another possibility, and I'm not sure if it happened or not, is one of them did an extra lap in Q3 to get a better time and they both ended up with the same fuel loads.

[Alfisti]

Originally posted by SchuOz
Let’s look at the fuel weights, just published by the FIA: what strikes me straight away is that Rosberg, Trulli, Glock and Webber are all carrying identical fuel loads. They will pit on lap 15 tomorrow. Looking at their qualifying performances then, we can make a direct comparison on pace. Trulli was half a second faster than Rosberg and Webber, whereas Glock was only a tenth ahead of them. This means that the Toyota, Williams and Red Bull are almost perfectly matched, but that Trulli did an exceptional job in qualifying.

Eh??? Either that or Glock muffed it, jesus Allen had a complete brain fade there.

[Driver]

Originally posted by Matt Somers
It is entirely possible however dependant on fuel management from the driver that one can make that fuel last a little lnoger anyways ;) Also the team could do back to back stops if the 2 drivers get split sufficiently in the pack?

Yeah, I agree...that's why I mentioned the car/driver combo thing. The Toyota drivers were fueled 10kg differently in Australia however...maybe they've learned something in the meantime...

I guess by this time tomorrow we'll know how well the strategy works for them.

[Driver]

Originally posted by Madras


You have to look in the 2.5kg range.

I'm pretty sure Toyota have given each driver the optimal pit strategy according to their calculations and told them to race for it.

Another possibility, and I'm not sure if it happened or not, is one of them did an extra lap in Q3 to get a better time and they both ended up with the same fuel loads.

According to http://www.paddockta...icle&sid=105966 they both ran 7 laps in Q3, although as has been pointed out, that may not be the whole story if one driver used fuel at a different rate than the other.

[Madras]

They're not going to use fuel at different rates going at racing pace. When they're putting in such close lap times there's just no way.

[MortenF1]

Originally posted by Barramut
One thing I noted this year is that drivers were not making mistakes in the last corner, before the main straight.
I don't know if its the slick tires or if bcs only Buemi is a novice.

Do you mean the corner before the start/finish straight? I saw mistakes there a handful of times.

......

I wonder if we'll see Button pushing like mad tomorrow, to build a big gap for when the rain comes...

Originally posted by Alfisti


Eh??? Either that or Glock muffed it, jesus Allen had a complete brain fade there.

That was the first thing that struck me too. What a simplistic take on things!

[eoin]

Originally posted by race addicted


Do you mean the corner before the start/finish straight? I saw mistakes there a handful of times.

......

I wonder if we'll see Button pushing like mad tomorrow, to build a big gap for when the rain comes...

From the looks of it he will have to push pretty hard to get any gap let alone a big one. Also if it rains malaysian style it will likely be under a safety car or a red flag.

[MortenF1]

In Melbourne he pushed hard in the opening stint, certainly, and immediately after the SC went in - going after a four-five sec gap.
If rain is expected into the race, a big cushion wouldn't be a bad thing. Maybe we'll see - unless the rain arrives before race-start - what the BGP 001 is really made of tomorrow.

[leomax]

If its wet,fuel consumption pattern will change very much.

[Kelateboy]

Originally posted by Madras
They're not going to use fuel at different rates going at racing pace. When they're putting in such close lap times there's just no way.

They are not on racing speed on all 7 laps. On the in and out laps, there are chances that those drivers turned on economical mode to save fuel. BTW, how many pit stops did each driver make during Q3?

I don't quite believe that the two cars were fueled the same at the start of Q3. I think they must have used the fuel consumption differently for the in and out laps and the identical weight of the cars is just coincidence.

-KB

[Kelateboy]

Originally posted by race addicted
In Melbourne he pushed hard in the opening stint, certainly, and immediately after the SC went in - going after a four-five sec gap.
If rain is expected into the race, a big cushion wouldn't be a bad thing. Maybe we'll see - unless the rain arrives before race-start - what the BGP 001 is really made of tomorrow.

If it rains Malaysian style tomorrow, it will be run under a safety car or worst, red-flagged. So any lead that one may have over the rest of the field is immaterial.

I am hoping for a dry race cause rain would turn the race into a lottery. And Lewis would have a good chance of getting on the podium yet again.

-KB

[travbrad]

Originally posted by metz

No. It'll be Rubins and Nakajima at the first corner.;)

Hey don't forget Piquet

[imaginesix]

Originally posted by niallmckiernan
Same info but in order of starting position
<image removed>

My numbers are similar but the problem I have with these results is that it leaves a bunch of guys to pit after the half way mark (28 of 56 laps). That makes no sense to me, I see no strategic advantage to pitting after the 1/2 way mark, the driver is only penalized by the extra weight he has to carry for his first stint.

I know we have to factor in some fuel consumption for the gridding lap and the formation lap, plus maybe 1 lap margin of error and maybe the average consumption is more than 2.5kg/lap, but it's still a lot more than 28 laps. We'll find out tomorrow I guess.

Edited by imaginesix, 15 January 2010 - 05:09.

[anthony says]

Originally posted by ville
[B]Here are my pitstop estimates for Malaysian GP. These may be quite a bit off because I had to guess many of the variables. Let's hope we get normal start to the GP so we can compare real pitstops with these estimates.
Pit stops.

[b]Driver		Team		  Calc pit lap  Pit lap guess Remaining laps[/b]

Vettel		Red Bull	  12.276		12			44

Sutil		 Force India   15.497		15			41

Rosberg	   Williams	  15.687		15			41

Webber		Red Bull	  15.687		15			41

Glock		 Toyota		15.876		15			41

Trulli		Toyota		15.876		15			41

Button		Brawn GP	  17.203		17			39

Räikkönen	 Ferrari	   18.150		18			38

Kubica		BMW		   18.340		18			38

Barrichello   Brawn GP	  18.908		18			38

Bourdais	  Toro Rosso	21.182		21			35

Alonso		Renault	   24.973		24			32

Fisichella	Force India   24.973		24			32

Piquet		Renault	   25.503		25			31

Nakajima	  Williams	  26.072		26			30

Buemi		 Toro Rosso	27.247		27			29

Hamilton	  McLaren	   27.815		27			29

Kovalainen	McLaren	   28.156		28			28

Massa		 Ferrari	   28.384		28			28

Heidfeld	  BMW		   29.331		29			27

see post 227 for Ville's full analysis (which is excellent BTW)

Last year the earliest stoppers stopped on lap 16, the latest stoppers stopped on lap 24, a difference of 8 laps. But last year everybody did two stops.

The implication of the scheduled stops from c26 onwards is that these drivers could do a one-stopper, but that means they would do half a race on the soft tyres - is that possible? It certainly wasn't in Melbourne! I know the soft tyres are better for this race, but even so I thought the difference of two grades between the tyres this season would make one-stopping very difficult.

One of the things that makes me slightly suspicious of the figures is that the four heaviest cars are all KERS cars. Is that a coincidence? Or does it suggest that the KERS cars don't get down to the weight limit, so all that extra weight may not be fuel?

[Alfisti]

Maybe gambling on rain and leaving options as wide open as possible?