4041 replies to this topic

[zack1994]

I think the point of contention is whether we're talking about the difference between them or just lewis beating jenson. The actual difference between them doesn't tell us anything (e.g. 10 races with Lewis beating jense by 3/10s and 10 races the other way round would mean they were equal, as it would if the figure was 1/10th).

Well it definitely isn't an exact science, it would be good to compare the same races but its not possible to do because a qualifying session would be normal in 2010 and then in 2011 it would be all over the place or wouldn't be on the calender and in the end impossible to compare.

[robefc]

Well it definitely isn't an exact science, it would be good to compare the same races but its not possible to do because a qualifying session would be normal in 2010 and then in 2011 it would be all over the place or wouldn't be on the calender and in the end impossible to compare.

But I believe your point is basically that the number of times the gap in quali was more significant - say 3 or 4 tenths rather than 1 or 2 - reduced from 2010 to 2011, correct? And a couple of other posters are saying this doesn't necessarily point to lewis having an advantage or subsequently that advantage having reduced as it might have been jenson beating Lewis by a few tenths back in 2010.

At least that's the way I've read the exchanges, I think you've assumed that as Lewis generally has the upper hand in quali a reduction in the gap between the two equates to jenson closing that gap. Obviously you may well be right but I don't think the posters you've been conversing with are making the same assumption.

If I'm completely misrepresenting anyone's views I apologise!

[tommyhjortasen]

Remember it´s about this year now. Jenson is trying, Lewis is crusing. About their abilities, well.

For now.

[hammibal]

The gap being 1 tenth between them increased in 2011 and the gap being 3 to 4 tenths decreased in 2011.

I think the point of contention is whether we're talking about the difference between them or just lewis beating jenson. The actual difference between them doesn't tell us anything (e.g. 10 races with Lewis beating jense by 3/10s and 10 races the other way round would mean they were equal, as it would if the figure was 1/10th).

Exactly

Well it definitely isn't an exact science, it would be good to compare the same races but its not possible to do because a qualifying session would be normal in 2010 and then in 2011 it would be all over the place or wouldn't be on the calender and in the end impossible to compare.

Now i'm confused again

[zack1994]

But I believe your point is basically that the number of times the gap in quali was more significant - say 3 or 4 tenths rather than 1 or 2 - reduced from 2010 to 2011, correct? And a couple of other posters are saying this doesn't necessarily point to lewis having an advantage or subsequently that advantage having reduced as it might have been jenson beating Lewis by a few tenths back in 2010.

At least that's the way I've read the exchanges, I think you've assumed that as Lewis generally has the upper hand in quali a reduction in the gap between the two equates to jenson closing that gap. Obviously you may well be right but I don't think the posters you've been conversing with are making the same assumption.

If I'm completely misrepresenting anyone's views I apologise!

To be fair doing the way i've done it probably isn't the best way to understand the quali difference from 2010 to 2011 I'll try another way.
I'll compare races/qualfying sessions that are possible so for instance belgium can't be compared neither can bahrain or any other lap for either driver that is disrupted in any way.
Brazil 2010 gap 3 tenths to lewis - 2011 gap 2 tenths to jenson
Abu dhabi 2010 gap 4 tenths to lewis - 2011 gap half a tenth to lewis
Korea 2010 gap 6 tenths to lewis - 2011 gap 3 tenths to lewis
Japan 2010 gap 2 tenths to lewis - 2011 gap 1 tenth to lewis (even though jenson outqualified lewis by a tenth its fairer to go by there 1st run as lewis didn't get a second run.)
Singapore 2010 3 tenths to lewis - 2011 gap 1 tenth to lewis (same situation as japan)
Italy 2010 gap 5 tenths to jenson - 2011 gap half a tenth to lewis
Hungary 2010 gap 4 tenths to lewis - 2011 gap Half a tenth to lewis
Europe 2010 gap 2 tenths to lewis - 2011 gap 2 tenths to lewis
Canada 2010 gap 4 tenths to lewis - 2011 gap 3 tenths to lewis
Spain 2010 gap 1 tenth to lewis - 2011 gap half a tenth to lewis
Turkey 2010 gap 3 tenths to lewis - 2011 gap 4 tenths to lewis
China 2010 gap 1 tenth to jenson - 2011 gap half a tenth to jenson

I hope people get the point.

Edited by zack1994, 20 April 2012 - 22:46.

[Lights]

This discussion about qualifying differences confused me as well.

Keeping it on this year though, in Melbourne the gap was about 1,5 tenths, although for Lewis it was foreseen while Jenson only managed his best run in the end. Same happens practically every qualifying session. Button took the lead at the start and the qualifying result became a non-issue. In Sepang it looked even easier for Lewis to outqualify Jenson, the gap in pace was arguably a little larger. The race was wet, Hamilton looked stronger in those conditions, yet Jenson was right up there with him when he drove into a HRT. In China qualifying the gap seemed similar as in Sepang, but Jenson's run on a colder track made it look bigger than it was. In the race they had similar pace yet again. Overall, Hamilton definitely has an edge of a few tenths in qualifying. In the race it disappears.

For Lewis the key is to get people between them on the grid and to keep that track position for the first half of the race. Then nothing can really go wrong for him anymore.
For Jenson the key is to either qualify very closely behind him or make up for that with a good start or overtaking in the first stint. If he's in front of Lewis and avoids HRT's, nothing really has gone wrong for him so far.

[PretentiousBread]

To be fair doing the way i've done it probably isn't the best way to understand the quali difference from 2010 to 2011 I'll try another way.
I'll compare races/qualfying sessions that are possible so for instance belgium can't be compared neither can bahrain or any other lap for either driver that is disrupted in any way.
Brazil 2010 gap 3 tenths to lewis - 2011 gap 2 tenths to jenson
Abu dhabi 2010 gap 4 tenths to lewis - 2011 gap half a tenth to lewis
Korea 2010 gap 6 tenths to lewis - 2011 gap 3 tenths to lewis
Japan 2010 gap 2 tenths to lewis - 2011 gap 1 tenth to lewis (even though jenson outqualified lewis by a tenth its fairer to go by there 1st run as lewis didn't get a second run.)
Singapore 2010 3 tenths to lewis - 2011 gap 1 tenth to lewis (same situation as japan)
Italy 2010 gap 5 tenths to jenson - 2011 gap half a tenth to lewis
Hungary 2010 gap 4 tenths to lewis - 2011 gap Half a tenth to lewis
Europe 2010 gap 2 tenths to lewis - 2011 gap 2 tenths to lewis
Canada 2010 gap 4 tenths to lewis - 2011 gap 3 tenths to lewis
Spain 2010 gap 1 tenth to lewis - 2011 gap half a tenth to lewis
Turkey 2010 gap 3 tenths to lewis - 2011 gap 4 tenths to lewis
China 2010 gap 1 tenth to jenson - 2011 gap half a tenth to jenson

I hope people get the point.

Yes, JB was definitely closer to Hamilton in qualifying in 2011, is that not the common consensus though? The stats are hard to argue against. The point you've been making about JB not fitting in the car I think bears more relevance to this than what we were discussing before, and also the EBD was a large factor too. I know Lights has already said he expects the gap to get smaller (I think I picked him up right on that anyway), but I'm feeling it will be bigger, just not as big as 2010. The loss of downforce under braking that Hamilton alluded to at the weekend of the Malaysian GP (with a cheeky smile as he said it I shouldn't fail to mention) is more Hamilton's territory than Button's. Time will tell but in the 3 qualifying sessions we've seen:

Australia - close gap, both did great laps, JB has always been strong at Albert Park (pole 2006, 2009, outqualified Hamilton there 2010).
Malaysia - close gap again, but once again JB needed two runs to get close and Hamilton had more time in the bag with quite a large error at the end of the lap.
China - similar to Malaysia, quarter second advantage or so.

Thus it's still close, but Hamilton seems to have a consistent edge. Last year, particularly in the second half it was closer between them.

Edited by PretentiousBread, 20 April 2012 - 23:03.

[robefc]

To be fair doing the way i've done it probably isn't the best way to understand the quali difference from 2010 to 2011 I'll try another way.
I'll compare races/qualfying sessions that are possible so for instance belgium can't be compared neither can bahrain or any other lap for either driver that is disrupted in any way.


I hope people get the point.

Much clearer I think

I dearly hope Lewis consistently out qualifies jenson and it's not so much the gap in time but what that means in terms of grid placings - Lewis was unlucky he didn't get that advantage in china, I can see it being very close with several cars this weekend too.

[zack1994]

Much clearer I think

I dearly hope Lewis consistently out qualifies jenson and it's not so much the gap in time but what that means in terms of grid placings - Lewis was unlucky he didn't get that advantage in china, I can see it being very close with several cars this weekend too.

[AMG FAN]

We saw that Lewis appeared to struggle with traction out of a few corners, even before tyre wear was an issue. Could it be that he's having the car set-up too stiffly at the rear? A stiff rear will allow the car to be more direct and responsive I think, but may hamper traction and thus tyre management.

it's been like that for a couple of years for him in turn 13...he is just not as strong in that particular spot.

[as65p]

Malaysia - close gap again, but once again JB needed two runs to get close and Hamilton had more time in the bag with quite a large error at the end of the lap.
China - similar to Malaysia, quarter second advantage or so.

Once you start counting that way (factoring in hypothetical gains if not for this or that), it all becomes rather useless. Better to stick with the actual numbers, which show that the China and Malaysia gaps were not similar by any means.

If anything, instead of counting the If's, more useful would be a formula which factors in track length. I find it puzzling how it's generally overlooked that one tenth at a 4.5 km track is not the same as 1 tenth at a 5.5 km track. Not that it matters much for the first races incl. Bahrain this season, just checked and the track lengths aren't that different.

[robefc]

Once you start counting that way (factoring in hypothetical gains if not for this or that), it all becomes rather useless. Better to stick with the actual numbers, which show that the China and Malaysia gaps were not similar by any means.

If anything, instead of counting the If's, more useful would be a formula which factors in track length. I find it puzzling how it's generally overlooked that one tenth at a 4.5 km track is not the same as 1 tenth at a 5.5 km track. Not that it matters much for the first races incl. Bahrain this season, just checked and the track lengths aren't that different.

I suppose a mistake can hide true pace and consequently create a misleading picture for what's likely to happen in the future...but as you say pretty much impossible to do accurately/fairly so becomes useless.

Good point about track length, never really thought about that before!

[fieraku]

Lewis P3-Jenson P6

[Lights]

Button doesn't look like a happy bunny. I'm not surprised if he misses Q3 like Vettel did last week.

[Lokt]

Button doesn't look like a happy bunny. I'm not surprised if he misses Q3 like Vettel did last week.

Don´t think that will happen, but I do believe that HAM and BUT all line up P5/P6. Merc and RB look to have found a better balance imo.

[MortenF1]

I'll be shocked to pieces if Button isn't in Q3!
I'm sure top six is on offer and realistic for both.

[trogggy]

Button doesn't look like a happy bunny. I'm not surprised if he misses Q3 like Vettel did last week.

He'll be okay after that.

[Lights]

Why would they tell Button that they need another lap, while Hamilton is in the pits already?

[robefc]

Why would they tell Button that they need another lap, while Hamilton is in the pits already?

lewis missed one of his laps i think, as it turns out jb's engineers were rightly worried his time might not be enough and didn't want to burn another set of tyres presumably, merc saved us from utter cock up

[Lights]

lewis missed one of his laps i think, as it turns out jb's engineers were rightly worried his time might not be enough and didn't want to burn another set of tyres presumably, merc saved us from utter cock up

They were indeed rightly worried, although at that stage it didn't look like that.

Still 1 run left on new soft tyres.

[slmk]

As usual, Lewis takes this one.

4-0 in Qualifying now.

[fieraku]

4-0

[The Ragged Edge]

As usual, Lewis takes this one.

4-0 in Qualifying now.

Qualifying is one thing, tyre management racing on Jelly-Marshmallow tyres is another. I get the impression even when Button is on form and Hamilton is not, Hamilton can still beat Button in qualifying.

[Lights]

Gap of 0,191 seconds between Lewis on new tyres and Jenson on used tyres. Obviously not a large performance difference between new and used tyres. Also not a large performance difference between Lewis and Jenson.

Theoretically there could've been 8 cars between those 0,191 seconds, apologies to the Lewis fans that are disappointed by the fact that only Webber managed to do so.

[trogggy]

Qualifying is one thing, tyre management racing on Jelly-Marshmallow tyres is another. I get the impression even when Button is on form and Hamilton is not, Hamilton can still beat Button in qualifying.

I'm only going to enter this thread for the 1st race, then every 5th race to give my opinions.

[robefc]

Gap of 0,191 seconds between Lewis on new tyres and Jenson on used tyres. Obviously not a large performance difference between new and used tyres. Also not a large performance difference between Lewis and Jenson.

Theoretically there could've been 8 cars between those 0,191 seconds, apologies to the Lewis fans that are disappointed by the fact that only Webber managed to do so.

I was disappointed when Msc went out because I thought it likely that it might be him and a red bull or two between them...but given where rosberg ended up perhaps not! Relieved button wasn't 3rd to be honest, worried about dirty side of the grid.

Are we sure that they weren't on new tyres in the first runs of Q3? I know Ted said they weren't but they had 2 fresh sets available and were talking about trying to preserve the prime tyre on the pitwall.

Edited by robefc, 21 April 2012 - 12:12.

[PARAZAR]

Gap of 0,191 seconds between Lewis on new tyres and Jenson on used tyres. Obviously not a large performance difference between new and used tyres. Also not a large performance difference between Lewis and Jenson.

Theoretically there could've been 8 cars between those 0,191 seconds, apologies to the Lewis fans that are disappointed by the fact that only Webber managed to do so.

Does anyone know why Jenson didn't finish his second run? Did he make a mistake, or is it strategic?

[trogggy]

Does anyone know why Jenson didn't finish his second run? Did he make a mistake, or is it strategic?

Scruffy first and second sectors according to Brundle.

[robefc]

Does anyone know why Jenson didn't finish his second run? Did he make a mistake, or is it strategic?

mistake, went off track

[PARAZAR]

Scruffy first and second sectors according to Brundle.

Ok, well fourth not bad considering he was on used tyres. Great lap from Lewis. I can't say I'm very excited about seeing the finger again but it's turning out to be a greatly competitive season.

[robefc]

JA's take on soft tyres in Q3

James Allen‏@Jamesallenonf1Reply

HAM fasest on 1:32.6. 0.03 faster than BUT. Both are on a new set of options, but VET is on a scrubbed set and only 0.3 slower

[jrg19]

Lewis 4-0 Jenson

[The Ragged Edge]

mistake, went off track

Going over his limit? Anyway, tomorrow is when Jenson will shine. The tyres will make sure of that.

[PARAZAR]

mistake, went off track

Was that him? When they showed the replay I thought someone else had gone off in front of him. Wrong time to go off the track. Oh well, tomorrow is another day.

[slmk]

Gap of 0,191 seconds between Lewis on new tyres and Jenson on used tyres. Obviously not a large performance difference between new and used tyres. Also not a large performance difference between Lewis and Jenson.

Theoretically there could've been 8 cars between those 0,191 seconds, apologies to the Lewis fans that are disappointed by the fact that only Webber managed to do so.

If the team thought the tyres were still performing well enough for a good baseline lap in Q3, then your point is moot.

Button blew it in his second lap with fresh rubber. Just admit it.

[TeamMacca]

To be fair with the cold conditions Jenson struggles to get heat into his tyres

[PARAZAR]

Going over his limit? Anyway, tomorrow is when Jenson will shine. The tyres will make sure of that.;)

Well he does have better race pace than one lap pace so we'll see. They all have to work with the same tyres so...

Edited by PARAZAR, 21 April 2012 - 12:23.

[revlec]

Fellow Lewis's fans, please be nice... no need to do what you are doing now..

[Kvothe]

Does anyone know why Jenson didn't finish his second run? Did he make a mistake, or is it strategic?

He just said on Sky he that the balance of the car was a lot worse during his second run in Q3 which meant he had to bale out.

[fieraku]

Does anyone know why Jenson didn't finish his second run? Did he make a mistake, or is it strategic?

Lock up on that same turn.

[zack1994]

Well he does have better race pace than one lap pace so we'll see. They all have to work with the same tyres so...;)

Yep button has a good chance of a win, the only worry is button and hamilton are both on the dirty side

[Kvothe]

Gap of 0,191 seconds between Lewis on new tyres and Jenson on used tyres. Obviously not a large performance difference between new and used tyres. Also not a large performance difference between Lewis and Jenson.

Theoretically there could've been 8 cars between those 0,191 seconds, apologies to the Lewis fans that are disappointed by the fact that only Webber managed to do so.

Was Jenson on used tires?

McLaren pitwall

Only four cars - including Lewis and Jenson - have two sets of new options available during Q3.

Pit » BUT: "We have the tyres available. We want to do one run early on and the other as late as possible. I'll count you down to the flag on that one."

41 minutes ago

Button: "Are we sure we want to do two runs in Q3?"

Edited by Kvothe, 21 April 2012 - 12:28.

[Lights]

I was disappointed when Msc went out because I thought it likely that it might be him and a red bull or two between them...but given where rosberg ended up perhaps not! Relieved button wasn't 3rd to be honest, worried about dirty side of the grid.

Are we sure that they weren't on new tyres in the first runs of Q3? I know Ted said they weren't but they had 2 fresh sets available and were talking about trying to preserve the prime tyre on the pitwall.

Interesting view on qualifying. I've never gone into qualifying being disappointed because possible drivers go out early that might've harmed my favorite drivers' teammate while not knowing what pace the respective teams truly have. Is this the only way now how Lewis can beat Jenson in the race?

[Lazy]

If the team thought the tyres were still performing well enough for a good baseline lap in Q3, then your point is moot.

Button blew it in his second lap with fresh rubber. Just admit it.

Your post has no relation to Lights post you quoted.

[fieraku]

If the team thought the tyres were still performing well enough for a good baseline lap in Q3, then your point is moot.

Button blew it in his second lap with fresh rubber. Just admit it.

He was last one out and best position on track,2011Vettel like.

[Lights]

Was Jenson on used tires?

McLaren pitwall

To be fair my HD wasn't that HD, couldn't see the tyre wear.

When they were about to start the first hotlaps Ted mentioned that all the cars that were out on track were on used options. That's all I know.

[Kvothe]

Interesting view on qualifying. I've never gone into qualifying being disappointed because possible drivers go out early that might've harmed my favorite drivers' teammate while not knowing what pace the respective teams truly have. Is this the only way now how Lewis can beat Jenson in the race?

Honestly I felt the same as Robefc, take it as a complement! Didn't you yourself lay out that the goal for Lewis is to try and stay ahead for the first half of the race. The more cars between Lewis and Jenson the more chance he has of fufilling that. Unless Rosberg jumps Button, then Button pretty much has Webber dusted at the start putting him in a good position for the race.

[revlec]

Interesting view on qualifying. I've never gone into qualifying being disappointed because possible drivers go out early that might've harmed my favorite drivers' teammate while not knowing what pace the respective teams truly have. Is this the only way now how Lewis can beat Jenson in the race?

Can you suggest a different way for Lewis to beat Jenson? It's not his fault if he has been faster until now.

[PretentiousBread]

To be fair my HD wasn't that HD, couldn't see the tyre wear.

When they were about to start the first hotlaps Ted mentioned that all the cars that were out on track were on used options. That's all I know.

So Button is on tyres with 2 hot-laps on them, Hamilton only one, is that right? Means JB might get first dibs on the pit-stop, but that might not be such a bad thing for Hamilton so long as he's ahead of him. I wonder how McLaren will play this one.

[The Ragged Edge]

Fellow Lewis's fans, please be nice... no need to do what you are doing now..

I'm genuinely not ultra confident in the race. Obviously I'm trolling and winding up a few Button fans and lets be honest, a few of them deserve it ;) But on a serious note, with these tyres and their is no secret about them, it is 50/50 between Hamilton and Button tomorrow. TBH I'm gutted their is no Schumacher, Alonso and Raikkonen in the mix.