Current generation of F1 hopefuls - who'll make it and who'll make it big?

Time for one of those threads where we try to predict the future, then we'll dig this up in 4 or 5 years and look very stupid. I remember a thread many years ago about Nico Rosberg, Nelson Piquet Jr and Heikki Kovalainen who were the 3 big hotshots in the junior ranks at the time. It gets bumped up every year or so and it's fun to see how wrong we were (particularly the guys who bet on Piquet Jr ). Time for a 2012 version of it.

I tried to cram as many big names drivers as possible from F3 level onwards, to avoid people complaining their driver isn't on the list. There's a limit of 20 poll options and while frankly that should be enough it still means drivers out. Examples being surprise early WSR front-runners Nick Yellolly and Arthur Pic, previous GP3 stars Nico Muller and Nigel Melker, or the highly talented but unfortunately out of a seat Robert Wickens and Alberto Costa. I don't think any of them are going to make it at this point but who knows.

Remember this is just for fun. I know it's a bit early to make full judgement calls on some of these guys, for example Sainz Jr just graduated to F3. Be the first to predict he'll be the next champ and make yourself look good. Or daft.

Btw, might as well start with my bets.

F1 drivers - Bottas, Gutierrez, Calado, Nasr, Frijns, Bianchi, Korjus, Rossi, Vainio, Evans, Sainz Jr, Razia.

race winners - Bottas, Nasr, Frijns, Korjus

world champs - Nasr and Frijns

I know Bottas is flavour of the day after that complimentary article by Jonathan Noble interviewing him today, but don't think he'll go all the way. Already feel a little optimistic to name him as a future race winner. On other news, I'm sadly betting against António Felix da Costa making it to F1 at all, albeit it's a coin flip at this moment. There just isn't space for all of them in F1, I'm already picking too many future drivers on the grid. Obviously they won't enter it all at once, I expect 3 or 4 to arrive in 2013, then the rest to be spread over the next following years, but yeah...

I don't really follow lower classes right now, but I'm interested, why you don't see Davide Valsecchi, for example, making it into F1 although he's leading the GP2 series right now? And what's so special about Nasr by comparison? His fellow Brazilian Luis Razia is doing better in GP2 right now, granted he's 4 years older. Valsecchi of course is even older than that, but I wonder if you're suggesting that being in your mid-twenties and driving in GP2 or whatever is already somehow too old to make it into F1.

E: All I'm gonna say is that I think Bottas has it in him to be the next flying Finn.

Edited by Wander, 12 May 2012 - 11:27.

Looks promising

Interesting to see that some drivers have more votes to be World Champion than they do to be race winners!

Just heard that Beitske Visser just won her first single-seater race with a broken back.

Just 17 future world champions named so far...

I checked every single option before I clicked Vote. It took a long time, but it was worth it.

Interesting to see that some drivers have more votes to be World Champion than they do to be race winners!

I think we are on our way to get out first driver ever to win a championship with no race wins, but consistent podiums!

I don't really follow lower classes right now, but I'm interested, why you don't see Davide Valsecchi, for example, making it into F1 although he's leading the GP2 series right now? And what's so special about Nasr by comparison? His fellow Brazilian Luis Razia is doing better in GP2 right now, granted he's 4 years older. Valsecchi of course is even older than that, but I wonder if you're suggesting that being in your mid-twenties and driving in GP2 or whatever is already somehow too old to make it into F1.

E: All I'm gonna say is that I think Bottas has it in him to be the next flying Finn.

It's not as much a matter of age albeit that's a factor, it's about impressing throughout the years and I've never rated Valsecchi, he's been comfortably beaten by drivers who've not gone on to even register in the F1 radar, and has been at this level for ages so has a huge experience advantage. Admittedly it's risky to name him as not even driving a F1 race as every GP2 champ has raced on F1 and he's had enough backing to buy a F1 test plus good GP2 seats, but I really don't think the F1 teams rate him (I'm astonished people are voting on him as a future F1 champ ). Please realize the current GP2 grid is being named by everyone as a poor one, and behind WSR on talent at the moment.

On Razia vs Nasr, Razia's only coming good and has not shown anything before this stage (4th GP2 season, 1 single race win in his previous 3 years...), Nasr is not only a younger kid, he has completely blitzed the lower series and is already firmly at the front of the GP2 grid being a rookie. Pretty obvious rising star. Razia I'm only voting on him making it to F1 because he's obviously loaded with cash.

I do realize drivers develop differently along the years and some are late bloomers, some do not deliver anything on early successes. Yet I'll still rather back consistent performers from the beginning, over people suspiciously only coming good after many years of training... even if those who are better trained may be better equipped at the moment to move up to F1, but what happens when those consistent performers then accumulate that same level of training later on?

Edited by noikeee, 12 May 2012 - 11:57.

Just 17 future world champions named so far...

Some guy decided to vote on everyone.

Just heard that Beitske Visser just won her first single-seater race with a broken back.

She's the next generation though, only drivers already at F3/GP3 level are eligible for this thread.

Jazeman Jaafar in British F3 look promising as future F1 driver from Asia.

Sergey Sirotkin

Edited by jals99, 12 May 2012 - 15:45.

This thread probably wasn't a good idea to start in the mid of a F1 weekend, maybe it'll get a little more attention now. No love for the feeder series? No fiery my driver is better than your driver handbags fights?

I remember Alonso saying that he thought that Carlos Sainz Jr was going to be the next spanish "big thing".

If he's going to be winning races and WDC's I don't know, but he has potential

Time to review this thread after 5 months, to see how this generation of drivers is progressing. Must say I have not been able to watch any races this season so I can be a little misled, but have been keeping up with results.

My original picks for future champions

Robin Frijns - I continue convinced here, he seems to be set for a WSR title on his rookie year, at a time WSR is at its most competitive peak ever. That is very very impressive. It all seems a bit rushed, but once you've done this at this level a move for F1 should be imminent, although nobody has picked him up yet and there's no obvious route. 9/10

Felipe Nasr - I have a lot more doubts now, being a rookie in GP2 is always difficult but with a relatively weak field he should be doing better (he's 10th), particularly in light of his team-mate leading the table. Has not looked like a future F1 champion at all. 5/10

My original picks for future race winners

Valtteri Bottas - F1 friday times mean little but he's been consistently quick there, and all the right noises are coming from the team and everyone in the paddock, looks set for a Williams seat next year which is brilliant. 8/10

Kevin Korjus - No progress as he's not been able to develop on last year's progress, and gone very wide off the mark of predictions he could make a big dent on team-mate Bianchi's career. Disappointing and no longer hot propriety. 4/10

My original picks for future F1 drivers

Esteban Gutierrez - Near the title fight in GP2, which means he's now been a front runner in 3 major categories (GP2, GP3 and F3), but still ultimately a little disappointing because rookie Calado is matching him as a team-mate. 6/10

James Calado - GP2's best rookie by a mile in 2012, matching a hot Gutierrez who is 1 season ahead in experience, unfortunately set to run out of funding. 7/10

Jules Bianchi - Restoring a reputation that had been slightly dented in GP2, by making a very strong title challenge in WSR this season. Handled team-mate Korjus comfortably too and in this series has only been eclipsed by the excellent Frijns on a rookie year. 7/10

Alexander Rossi - Several steps backwards after the promise of last season with a mediocre campaign, beaten by Felix da Costa despite the Portuguese driver having missed the first 3 race weekends. Pretty bad. 4/10

Aaro Vainio - Very good start to the season in GP3 but then worryingly dropped further and further back as the year went on, which cost him a potential title. 5/10

Mitch Evans - Excellent progress to win the GP3 title on his 2nd season even if it was close. Looking very good and he's very young too (just 18). 8/10

Carlos Sainz Jr - Close to Carlin team-mates Jafaar and Harvey who have more experience at this level. Would be positive in a more competitive series, it's more ambivalent here given the lack of depth in Brit F3. Also decent but far from great in the Euroseries. Early days though. 6/10

Luis Razia - Freakishly outperformed all expectations by remaining at the top all season long after 3 bad seasons in GP2. No doubt a good season but questions mark over what took him so long - lack of depth on the field doesn't help the perception. 6/10

My original picks for not making it at all

Kevin Magnussen - Awfully inconsistent with many DNFs, but given it's his debut season in WSR his peak results are very impressive and consistency can be learned easier than speed. Promising and has a McLaren link which is huge value. 7/10

Richie Stanaway - Couple of early DNFs then an awful accident left him away from action for the remainder of the season. A promising career is now in serious danger more due to unfortunate circumstances than fault of his own. 3/10

António Felix da Costa - Did well to put a title fight in GP3, equally to show impressively in WSR coming in mid-season (embarrassing Rossi in the process), but even better than the results was being signed by Red Bull at a time there's no obvious talent to move up to Toro Rosso when inevitably they get fed up of their current drivers. His chances of F1 are now looking much much better. 7/10

Conor Daly - Just outside the title fight in GP3 which is pretty decent, not so much being outscored by two team-mates in Abt and Vainio, altho he's been better than Vainio lately. 5/10

Tio Ellinas - Consistently on the points all season then a top weekend to finish it, makes for a positive rookie season in GP3. 7/10

Daniel Juncadella - Set for a F3 title which is obviously positive, but the Euroseries are very far from what they used to be with no obvious good drivers around. It's his 3rd season there too and he's hardly dominating. 6/10

Davide Valsecchi - Set for a GP2 title which is brilliant but Davide has been at this level for a lifetime. Between WSR and GP2 it's his 7th(!) season on near-F1 cars, and bar 1 Asia title he's always been pretty bad. Hard to erase that despite the positive year. Should get into F1 however even if he has to buy a HRT seat. 6/10

Sam Bird - I can't forget he was bad in F3 but since then he's been a shadow to Bianchi emulating his every step. That continues this year with a title challenge in a very strong WSR. 7/10

Conclusions

Only 5 months gone and I already have changed my mind on a lot of drivers, which shows how fickle judging youngsters is. That being said my call on Frijns becoming a F1 champ, despite few people voting on him, looks more sensible now! Best driver of the season in the whole pre-F1 ladder in my opinion, I'm only a little afraid the time isn't right for him as there's no obvious seats in F1, and GP2 is no longer the right place to be.

i AM very impressed by Nasr in this season of GP2....i hope to see him in F1 someday surely...

Edited by aray, 20 September 2012 - 12:06.

None of those. With all that hired brainpower by Merc, I could easily see name like Michael Schumacher, career No. 3, at the top.

Yeah, 18 year old kids like Evans won't make it because Schumacher will win every single race for the next 20 years and retire at 62.

Yeah, 18 year old kids like Evans won't make it because Schumacher will win every single race for the next 20 years and retire at 62.

also he will occupy at least 10-12 seats on the grid all by himself, so none of the listed drivers will have anywhere to go.

Thanks Noik. Robin Frijns has certainly been the stand-out performer -- maybe the only stand-out performer, although James Calado's driven nicely -- in the junior series this year. I realise your poll is a little crowded but what's your opinion of the Brit F3 crowd this season?

In Indycar the only driver who's the right age (I reckon it's essential to enter F1 by your mid-twenties) and ability to consider making the jump to F1 is Josef Newgarden (21). Given his total lack of results this year despite some incredible instances of speed, I don't think he's on target to make a Montoya or Da Matta switch. He needs to be legit battling for race victories and not just front-row starts next season, and preferably a ride with Ganassi or Penske as soon as possible. It's got to be pointed out that Indycar is unique among possible "feeder series" to F1, in that it's actually stocked with six or seven F1-grade drivers. Anyone who's succeeded there has known much tougher competition than your average GP2 or WSR grad. To say nothing of experience in car development and media commitments.

Marshall Pruett's been making noise about the new Star Mazda champion Jack Hawksworth, who's from Bradford. Northerners tend to struggle to make it up the F1 ladder, but by all accounts he's worth keeping an eye on. He's also got a name that makes him sound like an RAF ace in a '50s comic book, which should keep him ahead of the competition.

Edited by Risil, 20 September 2012 - 12:59.

Thanks Noik. Robin Frijns has certainly been the stand-out performer -- maybe the only stand-out performer, although James Calado's driven nicely -- in the junior series this year. I realise your poll is a little crowded but what's your opinion of the Brit F3 crowd this season?

In Indycar the only driver who's the right age (I reckon it's essential to enter F1 by your mid-twenties) and ability to consider making the jump to F1 is Josef Newgarden (21). Given his total lack of results this year despite some incredible instances of speed, I don't think he's on target to make a Montoya or Da Matta switch. He needs to be legit battling for race victories and not just front-row starts next season, and preferably a ride with Ganassi or Penske as soon as possible. It's got to be pointed out that Indycar is unique among possible "feeder series" to F1, in that it's actually stocked with six or seven F1-grade drivers. Anyone who's succeeded there has known much tougher competition than your average GP2 or WSR grad. To say nothing of experience in car development and media commitments.

Marshall Pruett's been making noise about the new Star Mazda champion Jack Hawksworth, who's from Bradford. Northerners tend to struggle to make it up the F1 ladder, but by all accounts he's worth keeping an eye on. He's also got a name that makes him sound like an RAF ace in a '50s comic book, which should keep him ahead of the competition.

Montoya was British F3 champion and hence was on the radar even before his indy switch...
i don't think anybody from indy/nascar can make it to F1 nowadays without having experience in european formulas...

Daniel Abt should be added to the list of hot prospects too.

Evans had a good season, the next stage of his development is crucial. Frijns and Felix da Costa are also very talented, but I fear they will be held back by their nationalities. We've had no Dutch driver for a long time and there's never really been a top Portuguese driver plus the financial situation is pretty dire.

Frijns is the only person I'd say to look for as a coming F1 star.

Calado, Bottas, Bianchi, maybe Nasr and Gutierrez have all looked reasonably impressive, but nothing screams 'next big thing' with any of them to me. Could be solid in F1 still, who knows?

What about Max Chilton?

A Felix Da Costa is surely top of the list of future F1 drivers now, whenever Helmut Marko gets bored with Ricciardo or Vergne.

Edited by SpartanChas, 20 September 2012 - 13:36.

i will also include Macca junior driver Oliver Rowland....he was included in the program at the end of 2007 and now won BRDC award....

What about Max Chilton?

he is a sure shot...once his dad buys maraussia shares...

Could of sworn I voted on this the first time round!

Anyway, Bottas is looking very likely to get a Williams seat so he's the safest bet, as is any young driver currently on Marko's fun scheme. Max Chilton is bound to be driving a Marrusia next year, his dad has apparently brought into the team and today he's been appointed a test driver. After that, Gutierrez is likely if someone leaves Sauber, perhaps Valsecchi and Razia if they get some money for a HRT ride.

I would think Calado and Nasr could be rather successful, but who knows if they can acquire the money.

Been following Frijns very closely and hoping he can keep it up (as in not fizzle out or something) and make it to F1,rt f

I dont know whether its just me but apart from Frijns and possibly Bottas, the others dont seem standoutish to me, even Nasr.

I'm not impressed by the current young guard at all.

I doubt anyone of them will be champions until the event that the late 80's generation retires (Hamilton, Vettel, Rosberg). Of the current crop I think Bottas is the sharpest driver. Bianchi is the biggest talent but is not intelligent enough on track to achieve big things.

With Ferrari support perhaps Marciello can become something. Too early to say but he has very little experience from car racing compared to his F3 Euro Series rivals, will have funding from Ferrari due to his nationality and is still not even 18 years old. He might just become something.

But sometimes drivers surprise me, had someone told me in 2008 that Kobayashi and Pérez would look better in F1 than Bruno Senna and probably at the same level as Hülkenberg - I'd scratched my head at the person.

But in GP2 at the moment we have no wonderkids, it's in F3 and WSR you can find some good prospects. GP2 is so expensive that only rich kids and government-sponsored guys from Venezuela can afford it. It's turned into a joke of a series.

There's an option missing from each poll (especially the WDC one) - that being "None of the above".

These guys are either too young/raw to have shown whether they have F1 WDC qualities, or have the experience but haven't lit up the world consistently the way that recent F1 WDC's did in their pre-F1 careers.

What's with this hype around Bottas?

What's with this hype around Bottas?

Good Friday test performance, plus a reasonable likelihood of getting a race seat with a team that's been a winner in 2012. That ought to do it.

Nyck de Vries - this kid is the real deal

/end thread

Good Friday test performance, plus a reasonable likelihood of getting a race seat with a team that's been a winner in 2012. That ought to do it.

Had to read that again, as my initial thought was what testing did Williams do during Easter?

F1 drivers: Bottas, Gutierrez, Calado, Nasr, Frijns, Bianchi, Korjus, Rossi, Evans, Sainz Jr, Razia.

F1 race winners: Bottas, Gutierrez (Oil money drive), Bianchi (Ferrari connection), Nasr, Frijns, Calado

F1 World Champions: Bottas, Frijns, and Nasr

Edited by Jimisgod, 22 September 2012 - 05:36.

I haven't the faintest idea - these names come and go at such a pace that it's hard to keep track of who's actually headed for F1 with any reasonable chance of success.

For purely superficial reasons, and perhaps to broaden the appeal of the sport in such a populous part of this world, I think it'd be great if we could get some Asians at the front-end of the grid. Kobayashi isn't doing too bad with Sauber, but we haven't seen him on the podium all too often.

whoever is in the horizon has to deal against vettel and hamilton throughout this decade(and alonso until 2016 perhaps)...that's BIIIIIG deal....along with the trio,there are perez,grosjean,hulk.....
so seeing any of the aforementioned guys as a WDC is LOOOOOOOOGGGG shot in foreseen-able future,if ever......i can go on with race wins though...

Had to read that again, as my initial thought was what testing did Williams do during Easter?

Well, I checked and Williams didn't run any cars at all on the Easter Weekend. However, they did run one week later in Shanghai. St Paul in 1 Corinthians 9 says "Know ye not that they which run in a race run all, but one receiveth the prize?" Assuming that by "the prize" he means a competitive F1 seat, he seems to be suggesting that Valterri Bottas would've been better off doing a season of GP2 or WSR. Given that on the morning of Good Friday+1, Bottas posted a quicker time than Pastor Maldonado, it seems reasonable to assume that even a driver who does not run in a race, receiveth the prize, provided he runs on a day favoured by our Lord's passion. St Paul presumably believed (like Luca di Montezemolo) that third drivers should be allowed to race, at least in selected events. But given the conditions of modern Grand Prix racing, I think this is a fair interpretation of Scripture.

It's also worth considering that Bottas always replaces Senna on Friday mornings, which brings him into partnership on the timesheets with the Pastor, i.e. Jesus Christ.

Edited by Risil, 20 September 2012 - 17:14.

Yes, but it looks like he is going to make it to F1 :sadface

At least at the back of the field there won't be anybody to overtake him so it doesn't matter that he can't put up a fight to save his life.

Edited by SpartanChas, 20 September 2012 - 20:20.

Actually I better delete this in case anyone from the sim sees and I'm banned!

What's with this hype around Bottas?

GP3Champion, drives friday practise for Williams often with similar fuel load and program and have had the same or better pace than him. he hasn't done many mistakes (crash at hockenheim is the only one).also he did youngdrivers test at silverstone right after the gp weekend in similar conditions and inside information from williams team says he did time that would have taken him to pole position.williams team also praises how good his feedback is.

Anyway, Bottas is looking very likely to get a Williams seat so he's the safest bet

Yes, but you never know.

Williams invested a lot in Hulkenberg . . . who arguably had the best CV of any driver through the ranks after Hamilton . . . but he was thrown away. Then the year lay-off didn't help his momentum at all.

It's a cruel world.

Montoya was British F3 champion and hence was on the radar even before his indy switch...
i don't think anybody from indy/nascar can make it to F1 nowadays without having experience in european formulas...

Montoya wasn't Brit F3 Champion. He drove for a rubbish team in Brit f3. He only really made his name in F3000 with David Sear's Super Nova outfit.

I think Bottas is the only Finnish driver who can make it big in the near future.

He's been closer to Maldonado than Senna in Friday practices. I think if Williams are serious about putting him in the car next year, they should give him a couple of races at the end of this season. He couldn't possibly be slower than Senna or make more mistakes than Maldonado.

Frijns looking for sure the most impressive so far. Hope he can keep it up !!

I'm not impressed by the current young guard at all.

But in GP2 at the moment we have no wonderkids, it's in F3 and WSR you can find some good prospects. GP2 is so expensive that only rich kids and government-sponsored guys from Venezuela can afford it. It's turned into a joke of a series.

Disagree on the overall level of talent. I think their's plenty of exciting young prospects coming though. Agree that they're more in WSR than GP2 (probably because of the expense, as you say), but think GP3 is stronger than F3 at the moment. Brit F3 in particular is in a weak year.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...rmula1/19661882

a name not mentioned in here, but Chilton is now reserve driver for Marussia and their has been speculation about him getting a drive for them next season, shame really that Marussia, Caterham and HRT are all so far from the pace or they could be a good place for young talent to develop (ala Minardi and co in the past)

but anyway looks like he has a shot at a F1 drive potentially in future, I think he's done okay in GP2 this year, he's outperformed his teammate pretty easily all season and such.

I always look at performances in Junior categories as school grades that earn a chance in the big time.
But as soon as that driver has some F1 machinery experience, it is their performance then that matters, the junior category stats become meaningless.
On that basis, Bianchi and Bottas, both of whom have looked very good in F1 cars are my bets at this stage.