A fun thread to while away the time.
Once upon a time, I used to believe my gut feel about motorsport was pretty ok. Until I did a bit of an experiment. In order to test my gut feel, I waited for the next F1 season to begin and rated every newly launced car on a scale of 1 to 10. Based purely on gut feel. And not explicitly taking past performance of the team into account (I still believe one does this implicitly - in a back-of-the-mind kind of way). Importantly, I made the judgements before the car had turned a wheel.
Boy, was I surprised. I was actually pretty far off in most cases. And thinking back through the years, there's been times I've been pretty spot on and other times I've been far off.
Examples of true predictions (from recent memory):
McLaren MP4-20 being fast
BMW F1-08 being fast
Kimi WDC 2007
E20 being pretty quick
Examples of false predictions
MP-23 being slow
W02 being fast
Alonso WDC 2010 (I was close though)
Kimi WDC 2006 (stupid in retrospect)
Thinking hard, I'd actually give myself a pretty tepid 5/10.
Be honest, think hard and rate yourself!
Prophets step forth! How accurate is your motorsport sixth sense?
Started by
KiloWatt
, Jun 14 2012 09:26
32 replies to this topic
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#2
KiloWatt
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Posted 14 June 2012 - 09:30
Hey come on now. How about the person giving himself/herself a 9.99 share his/her stories?
Edited by KiloWatt, 14 June 2012 - 09:30.
#3
H0R
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Posted 14 June 2012 - 09:39
Voted <= 1. I suck.
Only time I was right was in the Schumacher heighdays. But you didn't have to be a prophet to foresee a Ferrari domination throughout 2001 and 2005. Otherwise I am usually so far off it is nearly ridiculous.
Only time I was right was in the Schumacher heighdays. But you didn't have to be a prophet to foresee a Ferrari domination throughout 2001 and 2005. Otherwise I am usually so far off it is nearly ridiculous.
#4
slideways
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Posted 14 June 2012 - 09:40
I hold the secrets to improving every aspect of F1 does that count?
Missed result prediction 101 at prophecy school though.
Missed result prediction 101 at prophecy school though.
#5
GSiebert
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Posted 14 June 2012 - 09:45
Brazil 2008, penultimate lap, I knew Hamilton would overtake Glock and be champion.
#6
Peat
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Posted 14 June 2012 - 09:47
I have very good short-term prophecy. I can usually see something (overtake/incident) coming a mile off.
I also tend to pre-empt the commentators ALOT. Really bugs my mates.
I also tend to pre-empt the commentators ALOT. Really bugs my mates.
#7
Disgrace
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Posted 14 June 2012 - 10:22
Fun thread. I'm a mixed bag. Got right:
Got miserably wrong:
Currently have my neck on the line for:
[Referring to their early season advantage] I predict McLaren will throw it away.
[About Mercedes in 2011] I predict they'll be less competitive
[2011 prediction thread]
5. World Champion Driver - Vettel.
6. World Champion Constructor - Red Bull.
7. Vintage season or disappointment - disappointment as Red Bull will walk to the title.
Got miserably wrong:
Williams will become genuine backmarkers.
Kimi is not returning to F1.
Currently have my neck on the line for:
I believe Grosjean will be faster than Kimi.
di Resta will be off to Mercedes.
Edited by Disgrace, 14 June 2012 - 10:25.
#8
TheWilliamzer
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Posted 14 June 2012 - 10:26
Whatever I say, the contrary happens... except for Maldonado crashing a lot this season! 
#9
velgajski1
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Posted 14 June 2012 - 10:33
I'm extremely bad in predicting WDC titles. My recent wrong predictions:
1. Kimi WDC 2005
2. Hamilton WDC 2007
3. Kimi WDC 2008. This is something I was completely convinced in
4. Hamilton or Alonso WDC 2010
Basically, I got right only seasons that were fairly easy to get, like Alonso winning 2006., Button 2009. or Vettel 2011.
However, I'm solid at predicting race events. I knew Hamilton 2007. China and staying on worn tyres was a huge mistake, I knew that on last lap 2008. he would overtake Glock (my biggest fear was that he doesn't crash with Vettel in end of the race).
Now I'm predicting Alonso to win the 2012. title
1. Kimi WDC 2005
2. Hamilton WDC 2007
3. Kimi WDC 2008. This is something I was completely convinced in
4. Hamilton or Alonso WDC 2010
Basically, I got right only seasons that were fairly easy to get, like Alonso winning 2006., Button 2009. or Vettel 2011.
However, I'm solid at predicting race events. I knew Hamilton 2007. China and staying on worn tyres was a huge mistake, I knew that on last lap 2008. he would overtake Glock (my biggest fear was that he doesn't crash with Vettel in end of the race).
Now I'm predicting Alonso to win the 2012. title
Edited by velgajski1, 14 June 2012 - 10:37.
#10
Henri Greuter
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Posted 14 June 2012 - 10:42
My most memorable experiences:
1971: Le Mans: I told my mother (being a 10 year old boy) on saturday evening (After the Dutch Radio had told some two hours before that Le Mans was being run and that the Dutch driver Gijs van Lennep was among the leading pack) that I believed that Gijs van Lennep was leading. I am not sure he was at the time I told my mother this but he did win the race. Childish wishful thinking being fulfilled?
1982: GP Austria. All weekend long I had to think about De Angelis and Lotus, despite them not having turbo-engines on a track suited for turbos.
1984: now that weekend could have made me rich: The weekend of Le Mans and GP Detroit. Strong feelings about the winning car being co-driven by Henri Pescarolo, no matter who his teammate was and what he drove. And about Piquet for the GP.
1998: I read in Autosport that Luyendijk had signed up for the Daytona 24 hours with Momo in a a 333SP. Somehow I felt it was gonna be a great race for Arie but that he won it still came as a surprise..
2011: Bump day at Indy. I sat in Turn One the last two hours to follow qualifications. In between there was some practice too and Dan Wheldon was one of the drivers who went out for practice. No other driver entered Turn One so smooth and gently and went throught the turn so snmooth and near effortless. Other drivers threw their car in th corner but not Dan. When I saw that I pointed it out to my mates and told them that if he could do such on Race day too that he would be a very strong candidate for victory. Dan became my first choice behind the Penskes and Target cars since that were the powerhouse teams. They were my first options based on tradition and facts but dan became my darkest of horses.
But I refuse to rate myself !!!!
Henri
1971: Le Mans: I told my mother (being a 10 year old boy) on saturday evening (After the Dutch Radio had told some two hours before that Le Mans was being run and that the Dutch driver Gijs van Lennep was among the leading pack) that I believed that Gijs van Lennep was leading. I am not sure he was at the time I told my mother this but he did win the race. Childish wishful thinking being fulfilled?
1982: GP Austria. All weekend long I had to think about De Angelis and Lotus, despite them not having turbo-engines on a track suited for turbos.
1984: now that weekend could have made me rich: The weekend of Le Mans and GP Detroit. Strong feelings about the winning car being co-driven by Henri Pescarolo, no matter who his teammate was and what he drove. And about Piquet for the GP.
1998: I read in Autosport that Luyendijk had signed up for the Daytona 24 hours with Momo in a a 333SP. Somehow I felt it was gonna be a great race for Arie but that he won it still came as a surprise..
2011: Bump day at Indy. I sat in Turn One the last two hours to follow qualifications. In between there was some practice too and Dan Wheldon was one of the drivers who went out for practice. No other driver entered Turn One so smooth and gently and went throught the turn so snmooth and near effortless. Other drivers threw their car in th corner but not Dan. When I saw that I pointed it out to my mates and told them that if he could do such on Race day too that he would be a very strong candidate for victory. Dan became my first choice behind the Penskes and Target cars since that were the powerhouse teams. They were my first options based on tradition and facts but dan became my darkest of horses.
But I refuse to rate myself !!!!
Henri
Edited by Henri Greuter, 14 June 2012 - 10:44.
#11
UPRC
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Posted 14 June 2012 - 10:43
I'd give myself an 8. If I'm going to go with how I thought this year would shape up...
The teams I feel I was very much in the ball park with:
I thought that Red Bull would still be strong, but I wished that they wouldn't be as dominant.
McLaren's car looked fast and sleek at launch, so I assumed they would be in the fight.
Ferrari didn't wow me and I expected them to have an average/good year (in Ferrari terms).
I thought that the Sauber looked decent enough and that they'd have some good drives.
Wrote Toro Rosso off (mostly due to bitterness for sacking Jaime) because I never expect much from them.
Caterham. I didn't feel that they would make a huge leap forward, but they would definitely be ahead of HRT and Marussia.
Marussia, right where I expected. I suspected that they would slowly be caught by the HRTs just like last season.
I expected HRT to be slowest overall at the start of the year (as usual), but would make huge gains on Marussia (as usual).
Mercedes. I'm a huge fan of them and I've been playing up their chances once they started hiring lots of former technical directors. I knew they'd improve.
The teams that I was very wrong about:
Lotus. I expected them to be fighting for positions 8 through 12 or 13 each race. Didn't expect several podiums at all.
Williams. I thought that they were only going to continue their decline, but they've made a sharp leap forward this year. Good for them!
The teams I feel I was very much in the ball park with:
I thought that Red Bull would still be strong, but I wished that they wouldn't be as dominant.
McLaren's car looked fast and sleek at launch, so I assumed they would be in the fight.
Ferrari didn't wow me and I expected them to have an average/good year (in Ferrari terms).
I thought that the Sauber looked decent enough and that they'd have some good drives.
Wrote Toro Rosso off (mostly due to bitterness for sacking Jaime) because I never expect much from them.
Caterham. I didn't feel that they would make a huge leap forward, but they would definitely be ahead of HRT and Marussia.
Marussia, right where I expected. I suspected that they would slowly be caught by the HRTs just like last season.
I expected HRT to be slowest overall at the start of the year (as usual), but would make huge gains on Marussia (as usual).
Mercedes. I'm a huge fan of them and I've been playing up their chances once they started hiring lots of former technical directors. I knew they'd improve.
The teams that I was very wrong about:
Lotus. I expected them to be fighting for positions 8 through 12 or 13 each race. Didn't expect several podiums at all.
Williams. I thought that they were only going to continue their decline, but they've made a sharp leap forward this year. Good for them!
Edited by UPRC, 14 June 2012 - 10:45.
#12
gm914
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Posted 14 June 2012 - 11:30
I bet a friend $50 Brawn would beat Ferrari in the 2009 standings after pre-season testing.
#13
dog-y
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 02:04
I bet 100 bucks with a friend that Button would beat Lewis last year. and I bet on Lewis the year before.
#14
LB
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 03:16
I'm £30 up on one of my mates at £10 a season over the last three seasons!
#15
AlexS
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 04:56
I also tend to pre-empt the commentators ALOT.
I do that too.
#16
lbennie
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 05:17
made a killing on brawn after their first test outing. i suspect im not the only one though.
#17
Zava
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 05:32
the night before the brazilian gp of '07, I had a dream: Kimi leads Massa and Alonso, Hamilton off to the mid-pack, and Sato went off the track to demolish trees from the forest next to the track ( 
) and Trulli followed him. got the podium and Hamilton right, and iirc Sato had an off in t1, and Trulli as well, a bit later? 
) and Trulli followed him. got the podium and Hamilton right, and iirc Sato had an off in t1, and Trulli as well, a bit later?
#18
Rob
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 08:21
made a killing on brawn after their first test outing. i suspect im not the only one though.
I thought they were running ridiculously light cars in the test to try and get some sponsorship, as teams have been known to do from time to time. That was not one of my better predictions.
#19
Theturkeyprize
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 08:52
Had a gut feeling that:
Kimi would become WDC in 2007. Correct.
Spy gate would disqualify both Lewis and Alonso out of the WDC. Wrong.
Lewis would become WDC in 2008. Correct
Massa would be WDC in 2009. Wrong.
Jenson would be out of F1 after Honda leaving. Wrong.
Vettel would be WDC in 2010. Correct.
Rosberg would beat Schumacher. Correct.
Lewis to win Spa. Correct and made £70
Jenson would win Monza 2010. Wrong, but close.
After Korea 2010, Alonso would now win WDC. Wrong.
Vettel would be WDC in 2011. Correct.
Title would be decided at Japan. Correct.
Jenson would beat Lewis in 2011. Correct
The MP4-27 would be the best car at the start of the season.
Vettel would be WDC in 2012. ????
Lewis would bounce back heavily against Jenson. So far Correct.
Rosberg winning a race this season. Correct.
Perez is the next big thing. Correct.
Schumacher to retire after 2012. ????
Vettel will drive for Ferrari. (Been saying since 08)
Kimi would become WDC in 2007. Correct.
Spy gate would disqualify both Lewis and Alonso out of the WDC. Wrong.
Lewis would become WDC in 2008. Correct
Massa would be WDC in 2009. Wrong.
Jenson would be out of F1 after Honda leaving. Wrong.
Vettel would be WDC in 2010. Correct.
Rosberg would beat Schumacher. Correct.
Lewis to win Spa. Correct and made £70
Jenson would win Monza 2010. Wrong, but close.
After Korea 2010, Alonso would now win WDC. Wrong.
Vettel would be WDC in 2011. Correct.
Title would be decided at Japan. Correct.
Jenson would beat Lewis in 2011. Correct
The MP4-27 would be the best car at the start of the season.
Vettel would be WDC in 2012. ????
Lewis would bounce back heavily against Jenson. So far Correct.
Rosberg winning a race this season. Correct.
Perez is the next big thing. Correct.
Schumacher to retire after 2012. ????
Vettel will drive for Ferrari. (Been saying since 08)
#21
korzeniow
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 09:41
Perez is the next big thing. Correct.
It's wrong. Or at least too early to say
#22
ryan86
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 09:41
On some online betting game on a forum I put a large amount of money on Kubica winning Canada 08, and led most of the championship. I decided to put everything on the winner of the penultimate GP however since there was no prize and blew it all, so a mixed bag.
#23
Tsarwash
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 09:49
After just a few races last season, I predicted that Vettel woud win his second WDC. Good eh ?
#24
THE "driverider"
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 09:53
Raikkonen winning 2005 Spanish GP
Kubica winning 2008 Canadian GP
Rosberg winning 2012 Chinese GP
I remember not watching the 2006 Hungarian GP live and had a gut feeling there would be a new winner.
Kubica winning 2008 Canadian GP
Rosberg winning 2012 Chinese GP
I remember not watching the 2006 Hungarian GP live and had a gut feeling there would be a new winner.
#25
KirilVarbanov
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 10:00
Voted 7 for myself.
Historically I have had some good matches and predictions here and there, but this season in F1 I scored low number of points in the predictor castrol game. Perhaps we need a thread for sharing our scores (I'll start one shortly).
Historically I have had some good matches and predictions here and there, but this season in F1 I scored low number of points in the predictor castrol game. Perhaps we need a thread for sharing our scores (I'll start one shortly).
#26
Theturkeyprize
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 10:02
It's wrong. Or at least too early to say
Tell that to Mexico lol.
#27
SpartanChas
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 14:10
Buttone leading into the first corner and winning in Melbourne 2012. Wish I had told someone before the race though.
Also predicted that Hamilton and Grosjean would be the front row at Monaco, and I wasn't miles off, they were the second row.
Also predicted that Hamilton and Grosjean would be the front row at Monaco, and I wasn't miles off, they were the second row.
#28
goingthedistance
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 14:26
I predicted Button would go to McLaren about 4-5 months before it happened, does that count? I remember just randomly thinking it one day, and then it happened a while later. It was a premonition I tell you.
I'm pretty rubbish at picking results, especially in the Pirelli era where there seems to be less logic and general trends in car performance. I did expect Mark to bounce back this year v Vettel, and for Grosjean to outperform Kimi. Schumacher's decline was pretty obvious too, bad luck notwithstanding.
I'm pretty rubbish at picking results, especially in the Pirelli era where there seems to be less logic and general trends in car performance. I did expect Mark to bounce back this year v Vettel, and for Grosjean to outperform Kimi. Schumacher's decline was pretty obvious too, bad luck notwithstanding.
Edited by goingthedistance, 19 June 2012 - 14:27.
#29
Reinmuster
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 15:14
I predict Grosjean to be the 8th winner at Valencia. How's that?
#30
gm914
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 15:15
I'd be more impressed if that was your prediction at the start of the yearI predict Grosjean to be the 8th winner at Valencia. How's that?
#31
midgrid
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 16:52
I predicted that Hakkinen would crash immediately before he actually did in the 1999 San Marino Grand Prix. I also predicted the Hamilton would crash during free practice at Suzuka last year just before it happened (it was in the Live Chat if anyone remembers). Apart from that, not so good.
#32
Nonesuch
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 16:56
Most recently, I predicted McLaren would cause a delay in Hamilton's second pit-stop in Canada, but that was hardly a complete surprise.
I'm usually quite rubbish at it, though - especially at the start of a season. These 'predictions' seem to be little more than a mix of past results, some hopes, and some fears.
I'm usually quite rubbish at it, though - especially at the start of a season. These 'predictions' seem to be little more than a mix of past results, some hopes, and some fears.
Edited by Nonesuch, 19 June 2012 - 16:57.
#33
KavB
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Posted 19 June 2012 - 17:01
I thought Raikkonen would win the 07 WDC despite being 17+ points off near the end. I also thought Vettel would dominate one day after the 07 Japanese and Chinese GPs.
After that it went downhill I thought Massa would win the 08 title, and 2009 was way off!
After that it went downhill
I thought Massa would win the 08 title, and 2009 was way off!
