End of Season Prediction Graphs

Still can't help feeling like your graph is a bit off regarding Kimi and Fernando so far this season. After Spain RAI seems to be closer to ALO than to VET, even though the actual gaps were 15 points and 4 points, respectively. Furthermore, RAI and ALO seem to almost equal after Monaco, even though they really had between them a gap bigger than what they had after the season opener (but the graph certainly does not convey that).

Neat stuff. I guess that explains why so many people think Vettel's got it in the bag this year, even though I think it's far from over.

It's far from over for sure. And thinking about it: Is there really something that prevents Ferrari, Mercedes or even Lotus from realizing a similar 2nd half of the season spurt that saw Vettel/RBR rise to take the championship starting from Singapore 2012?

Edited by rasul, 22 July 2013 - 18:55.

Nothing. Bad I guess people have a lot of faith in Vettel/RBR. Even those people who hate them.

Updating the graphs after a 30-day break.



Comparing to last year Torsion & co style Sebastians superiority is pretty clear!

If you look at 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and so far 2013, Vettel is making less and less mistakes too.

That means you need more DNFs (like Silverstone) from the car to off-set Vettel's lack of any notable mistakes.

True, Vettel makes very few mistakes with every year, but there are many races left. Bad luck might hit anyone, as it was proved in Silverstone. The championship is far from over.

The big question is if someone can finally start beating Vettel in the likes of Korea, Abu Dhabi and India. If the form goes as in the past years, others must hope for incredible unluck for Vettel to catch up, because otherwise he would be winning all.

Suzuka for Vettel
2009 – P1, 2010 – P1, 2011 – P3 (drove conservatively to secure WDC), 2012 – P1

Korea
2010 – DNF from P1, 2011 – P1, 2012 – P1

India
2011 – P1, 2012 – P1

Abu Dhabi
2009 – P1, 2010 – P1, 2011 – DNF from P1, 2012 – P3 (after DQ in Q)

Four circuits. 9 wins out of 13 races. Two thirds (one in a heavily compromised race) and two DNFs from the lead.

Is it going to be a DNF/win story for Vettel yet again? Or can someone finally beat Red Bull in car development in Asia?
I left out Singapore, because it is a bit unique street circuit and Alonso beat Vettel there in 2010, Hamilton would have beaten in 2012 without car failure.

Don't you think a bayesian model would be better ?

Just a suggestion - I'd make Fernando red and Seb blue. Scrolling through this thread I kept thinking "How, no matter what has happened, does he have Fernando on top?!" Oh the power of Ferrari red on one's subconscious.

I don't think it's possible to predict the future of an F1 season, so better is a difficult concept. I'm just doing this for fun and conversation. How would a Bayesian model be? It's from economics, right?

Edited by turssi, 14 August 2013 - 23:38.

Edited by turssi, 14 August 2013 - 23:39.

Hm, could there be a mistake in the plot for the pilots? Currently for the WDC battle based on the last 3 races I get:

Vettel: 172+((0+25+15)/3)*9 = 292
Kimi: 134+((10+18+18)/3)*9 = 272
Hamilton: 124+((12+10+25)/3)*9 = 265
Alonso: 133+((15+12+10)/3)*9 = 244

Also technically, the peak for Vettel at >550 points should not be possible. Even with 20 races, 500 points is the maximum.

I guess this is somehow related to the pre-season things you included, but those shouldn't play a role anymore after the first 3 races.

There was indeed! I was always multiplying by 19 remaining races!!! My Excel-mistake was that I had locked both column and line for the remaining races... What a shame!

Thanks for reporting what your eyes picked up! I updated the latest graphs, the older ones I left without correction. Thanks again.

Did you correct all points in the graph? It still looks wrong that Vettel goes that high up initially and is now in a rapid decline.

Edited by turssi, 14 August 2013 - 23:43.

Looking at the Torsion graphs Alonso is now the clear nr.2 as predicted for the WDC. Kimi took himself out and should drop behind Lewis soon if the Englishman can avoid all those non-finishes that plagued his end of 2012!

According to these graphs, Sebastian needs to score 0 points three times in order to give the others a chance.

For the constructors we can see RBR back at maximum performance now that the British catastrophe is more than 03 races back. Mercedes is now a predicted second for the WCC even if their pilots take turns in good performances... Ferrari and Lotus are tied for third. If Kimi is a little bit behind Fernando, then Romain is that much in front of Felipe :-)

On the lower tier we have a happy surprise! Someone has managed to turn their season around! And that someone is McLaren! Congratulations!

Looking at the pilots Sebastian is at the top of the world (for the same reason as mentioned for RBR in the previous post). Lewis is doing a-ok. Kimi couldn't keep it up, while Mark and NicoR make somewhat decent back-up pilots.

At the low-end Jenson looks to finish the season in front of Felipe and maybe soon even in front of Romain!

Looking at the Torsion graphs Alonso is now the clear nr.2 as predicted for the WDC. Kimi took himself out and should drop behind Lewis soon if the Englishman can avoid all those non-finishes that plagued his end of 2012!

 

 

 

According to these graphs, Sebastian needs to score 0 points three times in order to give the others a chance.

Thanks for the updates 

Starting to feel like the "correction factor" is working (with more realistic projection for Seb...   ) 

Now after Italy it's clear that Seb takes the WDC and Fernando takes 2nd. 3rd is still being disputed between Lewis and Kimi.

Constructor prediction after Italy:

Pilot prediction after Italy:

True, Vettel makes very few mistakes with every year, but there are many races left. Bad luck might hit anyone, as it was proved in Silverstone. The championship is far from over.

As a Tifosi, it's what I'm hoping for, or for at least the Alison effect to continue.

Spa and Monza have a sense of his involvement... I hope...

I wouldn't rule Webber out of taking 3rd. He's only a few points behind Hamilton

So the final leg of the 2013 season has started and below we take a look at the different predicted final season points (calculated after Singapore):

After Korea my prediction graphs have the following to say:

RBR has been dominating for a long time now. Expect them to win the constructors at about 500-600 final points. FI should beware of Sauber taking away their 6th, not think about McLaren taking 5th!

Lot's of movers and shakers in the pilot's prediction. Now is not the time to shift focus if some teams keep attacking the 2013 season still!

In the 'torsion' graph Fernando has secured 2nd place.

Same goes for the same graph with a coefficient applied!

Here are the torsion graphs after Japan:

With the traditional style prediction graphs after Japan:

It's going to be tight between Ferrari, Mercedes and Lotus! Sauber is on the rise as well.

About the pilots let's just say that Sebastian is in a class of its own.

After India the set of graphs looks like this:

Could Merc take 2nd in WCC?

Fernando and Kimi are suffering a down turn, NicoR is challenging Mark, while Felipe and Romain are in a sprint against each other!

Torsion's graphs say it's all over already :-)

Update after Abu Dhabi:

Looks like an interesting fight for 3rd in the WDC.

After USA the prediction states that the WCC is pretty much over:

Sauber could not reach FI that could not reach McLaren. Ferrari was not able to defend against Mercedes, but against Lotus yes.

WDC is alive for 3rd (Lewis vs Mark) and 10th (NicoH vs Paul vs Sergio). Also Valtteri is dreaming about reaching Esteban for 16th in WDC!

Torsion graphs show that Kimi dropping out really made it easier for Lewis (and took Lotus out of the WCC race):

hey turssi, 

planning on doing the same great job this year?

Top 6 teams only

hey turssi, 

 

planning on doing the same great job this year?

Let us keep the tradition going.

I guess the pilots from Merc, RBR, Ferrari, Williams and Lotus would be a good selection for this year?

I have used McLaren instead of Lotus in the above list.

Should I keep the graph format or go back to a simple table? What about the average point system used for the funny prediction, just last race or last three or five or an average from all the finished races so far?

I have used the average of last 3 races in the graphs above.

Post Monaco 2014