If there was no Red Bull... Stats game

Disclaimer: This thread is not meant to discredit Red Bull, Vettel or Webber. They were exceptionally great and deserve their championships and trophies. It's just for fun.

I made some calculations as of what would 2010-2013 period looked like if there was no Red Bull and we would be back to Ferrari vs. McLaren years. I know Vettel, Webber and Newey would drive and build some other cars and spoil my whole statistics, but whatever, it's not ultimately valid prediction from the start anyway.

2010 Championship

1. Alonso 296 points

2. Hamilton 284 points

3. Button 255 points

4. Massa 181 points

1. McLaren 539 points

2. Ferrari 477 points

2011 Championship

1. Button 348 points

2. Alonso 329 points

3. Hamilton 294 points

4. Massa 183 points

1. McLaren 642 points

2. Ferrari 512 points

2012 Championship

1. Alonso 335 points

2. Raikkonen 254 points

3. Hamilton 219 points

4. Button 210 points

Didn't calculate points for Massa, but Ferrari would win WCC

2013 Championship

1. Alonso 184 points

2. Hamilton 171 points

3. Raikkonen 161 points

Driver's stats:
What would add to their tally
 

Fernando Alonso 2 WDC, 13 wins, 9 podiums, 8 poles

Lewis Hamilton 0 WDC, 7 wins, 15 podiums, 24 poles

Jenson Button 1 WDC, 6 wins, 10 podiums, 6 poles

Felipe Massa 0 WDC, 1 win, 18 podiums, 2 poles

Kimi Raikkonen 0 WDC, 3 wins, 2 podiums, 0 poles

-------
Alonso would be 4 time world champion matching Prost
Hamilton would be 3rd most successful qualifier 10 poles short of Senna
Button would join Hill, Clark and Steward in the elite club of British drivers with more than one WDC
Massa would be 11th best podium scoring driver in history, not 22th

Edited by Zoetrope, 01 September 2013 - 17:14.

I remember doing this with McLaren in 1988 and it would have been one of the most interesting and varied seasons ever if they hadn't been there at the front. I think I also did it at the height of Schumacher-Ferrari domination. It does show that sometimes the battle for 2nd can be very interesting.

That Button, 2 WDC.

If a top team like Red Bull is not there, the very way the other teams would approach the championship with them being the top-most teams would be very different. For example, Ferrari may have given early on the 2011 season. But if McLaren was their main opposition they could have developed their car differently. I believe the teams always weigh risk vs reward both in the season-long development and the weekend preparation starting from FP1 to qualy. That's why some teams sandbag sometimes, to mislead the chance others would take. It would be very difficult to predict how the championships would have panned out in the absence of Red Bull. It is not as simple as taking the 2nd and 3rd most competitive teams as they are.

Interesting, I didn't realise Hamilton would have quite so many more poles.

It's important to take psychology into account too, though. For example, would Hamilton have approached 2011 in the way he did after Barcelona if Vettel hadn't been running away in the championship?

I'm glad Red Bull exists though. It will then be even more impressive when someone else wins (unless of course we are condemned to decade after decade of Red Bull domination from now on).

Is this what Alonso fans dream at night about?

Interesting reply to those who say McLaren have lost the plot, in fact they have just been beaten by an exceptional Red Bull team and Mr Newey.

The most surprising thing about this is that I had a vague impression, without ever really thinking about it, that Vettel and Red Bull had usurped Hamilton and were the reason he had not gone on to rack up the multiple WDCs expected of him. I realise the limitations of this kind of counterfactual exercise, but it is odd to think that Button has lost out more. 

For me the most surprising thing is how without Red Bull, Massa still wouldn't have won a single race. Why the hell is Ferrari even considering that they want to keep him even longer...

For me the most surprising thing is how without Red Bull, Massa still wouldn't have won a single race. Why the hell is Ferrari even considering that they want to keep him even longer...

The most surprising thing about this is that I had a vague impression, without ever really thinking about it, that Vettel and Red Bull had usurped Hamilton and were the reason he had not gone on to rack up the multiple WDCs expected of him. I realise the limitations of this kind of counterfactual exercise, but it is odd to think that Button has lost out more.

Actually Massa would have won two races in Red Bull's absence. Germany 2009 (I know the OP didn't include that year but I did) and Japan 2012.

Then the stats are messed up, Massa was 2nd to Vettel in suzuka last year.

Actually Massa would have won two races in Red Bull's absence. Germany 2009 (I know the OP didn't include that year but I did) and Japan 2012.

Good point, I forgot about Suzuka. Stats aren't 100% then.

Good point, I forgot about Suzuka. Stats aren't 100% then.

Yes, sorry, I did not even count Massa's points for 2012 as he was nowhere. I just counted his podiums and pole positions and must have missed that he would have won Suzuka. The rest should be accurate thou.

Let's play the same game without Seb Vettel! Would Webber have won a championship or just Alonso and Button?

Let's play the same game without Seb Vettel! Would Webber have won a championship or just Alonso and Button?

No, he was never 2nd to Vettel in a championship. He'd have a few more poles and wins though- especially in 2009/10 where there were a few RB front rows or RB 1-2s

Then the stats are messed up, Massa was 2nd to Vettel in suzuka last year.

Kimi's 'totals' are messed up on first notice.  3 wins and 2 podiums?  Even assuming we're discounting wins as podiums, that would give Kimi 2 wins and 7 podiums in 2012 alone.

I'm not surprised to hear there's other errors.

Sorry Zoetrope, I know these things aren't simple to figure out, but the numbers aren't right.

Edited by Seanspeed, 02 September 2013 - 16:42.

Eliminate Red Bull, Alonso, Button and Raikkonen and Hamilton would be a 5xWDC in the last four seasons

Edited by fabr68, 02 September 2013 - 17:50.

Kimi's 'totals' are messed up on first notice.  3 wins and 2 podiums?  Even assuming we're discounting wins as podiums, that would give Kimi 2 wins and 7 podiums in 2012 alone.

I have listed what would add to their tally, not how many would they achieve total. He would have 2 podiums more than he really achieved. In Korea and Silverstone he finished 5th, behind Webber and Vettel. If we magically crop out Red Bull ( sorry, I know the whole concept is poor  ) he would finish on the podium on those occasions, this is what I meant with my OP.

Edited by tmzxaar, 02 September 2013 - 19:04.

Eliminate Red Bull, Alonso, Button and Raikkonen and Hamilton would be a 5xWDC in the last four seasons

 

Runs off to work out how many people need to be eliminated for Karthikeyan to be WDC...

No, he was never 2nd to Vettel in a championship.

That's not the question here ;)

No, he was never 2nd to Vettel in a championship. He'd have a few more poles and wins though- especially in 2009/10 where there were a few RB front rows or RB 1-2s

Just because he never finished 2nd doesn't mean he wouldn't have won without Vettel. The points aren't distributed evenly - removing someone can have strange and mysterious effects

Hamilton would have won the 2007 WDC if there was no RB, due to collecting 2 points at Nurburgring.

Very well spotted. 

That Button has lost a WDC to Red Bull but Hamilton didn't (unless you count 07) gave me a good chuckle. Don't get me wrong, I like both and I hope Lewis will win another title, but still funny. The 2 points at Nürburgring are quite amusing too though.

Hamilton would have won the 2007 WDC if there was no RB, due to collecting 2 points at Nurburgring.

And Massa would have been WC in 2008 from the point gained in Monaco. (Mistake-o)

Editted: Meant Canada where it was Coultard 3rd, and Massa 5th.

Edited by Tron, 05 September 2013 - 15:58.

 

And Massa would have been WC in 2008 from the point gained in Monaco.

But Monaco was Hamilton - Kubica - Massa.

OK, I just decided to do 2008 properly If we threw out Red Bull:

Massa: Canada 5 -> 4

Hamilton: France 10 -> 8

+1 points each, result stays. If we threw out Toro Rosso too given they were also Newey designs:

Massa: Monza 6 -> 5, Japan 7->6

Hamilton: Monza 7 -> 6, Brazil 5->4

+2 points each, result still stays. Close though

Eliminate Red Bull, Alonso, Button and Raikkonen and Hamilton would be a 5xWDC in the last four seasons

 

That is why he is the GOAT

I have listed what would add to their tally, not how many would they achieve total. He would have 2 podiums more than he really achieved. In Korea and Silverstone he finished 5th, behind Webber and Vettel. If we magically crop out Red Bull ( sorry, I know the whole concept is poor  ) he would finish on the podium on those occasions, this is what I meant with my OP.

Gotcha.  My bad!

Lol what an interesting thread 

But Monaco was Hamilton - Kubica - Massa.

True, ture. Meant Canada where it was Coultard 3rd, and Massa 5th.

There are definitely a few errors in the OP. I know for a fact that Alonso would have been a 24 time gp winner without Red Bull, not 13.

9 wins in 2010
4 wins in 2011
6 wins in 2012
4 wins so far in 2013

from the OP: "What would add to their tally"