Blind Projections for 2014

I usually like a good prediction thread, but the new rules means everything is so up in the air this year, I wouldn't like to make any guesses before at least the first test.

Yay fun.

1. Mercedes

2. Ferrari

3. Red Bull

4. Mclaren

5. Force India

6. Williams

7. Lotus

8. Sauber

9. Caterham

10. Toro Rosso

11. Marussia

1. Mr ugly

2. Mr not quite as Ugly

3. Mr Uglyish

4. and on...

Seriously, I like the cars, yup - all of them!

So.... given all the changes this year, it's clearly obvious the pecking order will remain........ EXACTLY...... as 2013 (save perhaps McLaren swapping with Lotus). Inevitable Mr Anderson.

Just be prepared for at least one driver in every team to be heard saying "... but I can't go any slower, man".

There are lots of uncertainties with all the changes, but I will start with 2013 results and try to predict if they go up or down based on what the teams have done until now in terms of development and drivers. So, here it's the 2013 result with my prediction next:

1. RedBull -1 - because their strike has to end (and Ricciardo will suffer)
2. Mercedes +1 - strong drivers, strong team, strong engine
3. Ferrari - Alonso will fight, but Kimi will struggle
4. Lotus -3 - because of Maldonado
5. McLaren - don't see any big change for them
6. Force India +2 - because of Hulk
7. Sauber +1 - I like them
8. Toro Rosso -1 - don't see them doing anything special
9. Williams +1 - will improve on the terrible year they had
10. Marussia - same as last year
11. Caterham - same as last year

So the result on 2014 should be:

1. Mercedes
2. RedBull
3. Ferrari
4. Force India
5. McLaren
6. Sauber
7. Lotus
8. Williams
9. Toro Rosso
10. Marussia
11. Caterham

The great thing is how I genuinely have no idea what to expect. I remember how badly wrong I got my 2009 predictions (I had a bet with my friends and we were all pretty far off) and that was after testing. So here goes.

1. Ferrari

2. Mercedes

3. McLaren

4. Red Bull

5. Lotus

6. Williams

7. Sauber

8. Force India

9. Toro Rosso

10. Caterham

11. Marussia

Right, I have taken this seriously and randomly drawn bits of paper out of a bag, so this is the order for this year:

1 Mercedes

2 Ferrari

3 McLaren

4 Red Bull

5 Williams

6 Force India

7 Sauber

8 Lotus

9 Marussia

10 Toro Rosso

11 Caterham

I think the Mercedes engines will be superior, Renault engines disappointing, Ferrari engines fast but a tad unreliable.

I think Ferrari and Red Bull have built the fastest car, but the Red Bull will be unreliable, as such is the Newey trademark.

I think all we are learning here is that there are desperate to see Red Bull take a fall. I suspect they will be dissapointed.

I think all we are learning here is that there are desperate to see Red Bull take a fall. I suspect they will be dissapointed.

With a big shift in rules, it is more likely than ever Red Bull will be toppled.

Also a lot of experts are predicting that the likes of Ferrari and even more so Mercedes my have the ability to take it to Red Bull this year.

So I think its more than hopes and wishes as you are making out.

If the Renault engine is any good, I can't see past Red Bull. If it's not, I think McLaren are in for a strong year. And I have a sneaking suspicion the Ferrari engine is not going to go very well. Ferrari (and FIAT) just don't have the resource of Renault and Mercedes in terms of developing the engine. 

Consider that the Lotus campaign will be hamstrung by the other issues they are having. Consider that Merc and Ferrari were fighting each other tooth and nail for second, and thus I predict they will both be slightly behind the development curve on these new cars. 

Williams might have a decent year but won't place above 5th, and probably not above 6th; the competition is now too good and even if they beat strong squads in Sauber, Toro Rosso, Force India, they will really struggle to overtake Lotus - I think - and won't be strong enough over a season to take on the other big boys. 

So I genuinely think (engine performance excluded) it will be a showdown between McLaren and Red Bull. This is what my heart says: 

1 McLaren

2 Red Bull

3 Ferrari

4 Mercedes

5 Williams

6 Lotus

7 Force India

8 Sauber

9 Toro Rosso

10 Caterham

11 Marussia

This is what my head says: 

2 McLaren

3 Mercedes

4 Ferrari

5 Williams

6 Lotus

7 Force India

8 Sauber

9 Toro Rosso

10 Caterham

11 Marussia

This is what predictions are all about.

1. Mercedes

2. Force India

3. Ferrari

4. Mclaren

5. Williams

6. Red Bull

7. Sauber

8. Lotus

9. Toro Rosso

10. Marussia

11. Caterham

Edited by Iranie, 27 January 2014 - 15:58.

There has been too much of a shake up this year when compared to previous years. Everyone has a fresh start. Red Bull are no longer guaranteed to be ahead of the curve evolving their brilliant car from 2009. McLaren's design looks to be quite advanced. Ferrari looks very slim. The Lotus nose could be a very clever thing indeed in not being compromised by 2014's new regulations. Mercedes should be just as strong as the original 'big two' too. Not to mention a fresh start for Williams with lots of new people.

So with all that in mind, I think that come Australia it will be a Vettel pole and cruise to victory. It just will.

Yay, time for wild, groundless speculation and silliness!

I have no idea how this stuff will play out, but I think fuel economy and rear tire preservation will be key themes through the year.  In terms of competitiveness, testing hasn't started yet, and the new Red Bull and Mercedes entries have not yet broken cover.  As such, I have no idea what is going to happen.

1.  Ferrari

2.  Red Bull

3.  McLaren

4.  Mercedes

5.  Williams

6.  Force India

7.  Sauber

8.  Lotus

9.  Caterham

10. Toro Rosso

11. Marussia

1. Mercedes

2. Mclaren

3. Force India

4. Williams

5. Ferrari

6. Sauber

7. Marussia

8. Red Bull

9. Lotus

10. Toro Rosso

11. Caterham

Look closely and you might notice a pattern 

I am going to go with the following because a random number generator told me to.

1. Caterham
2. Toro Rosso
3. Lotus
4. Ferrari
5. Mercedes
6. Red Bull
7. Sauber
8. Williams
9. McLaren
10. Force India
11. Marussia

Edited by UPRC, 27 January 2014 - 16:17.

Mclaren is my surprise package for 2014, the car just seems right (reminiscent of the 27) and the team's been quietly confident. Expect a 2012 like showdown again only without all the comic shenanigans. So here goes my top 5 order....

1. Mclaren (Button should mount a serious challenge, not so sure about their rookie)

2. Red Bull (They'll closely lag behind Mac in the initial stages, Newey to come to Seb's rescue later on)

3. Mercedes (Very strong driver pairing that should make the difference fighting for poles and podiums. WDC and WCC.? not yet I believe.

4. Lotus (Objectively had the second most competitive car last year, Red Bull's closest rivals in terms of pure speed. A few questionable pit wall decisions and an average driver line-up obscured the true potential of the E20 and E21).

5. Ferrari ( Seeing that the F14 T is an evolution of the horribly flawed 2012 machine that proved with the F138 to be completely non upgradable, they'll do no better than flounder in the mid field relying on the weaknesses of drivers in better cars and potential reliability issues to pick up the odd podium here and there.)

Edited by Timothy, 27 January 2014 - 16:20.

At this point it seems like Mercedes is really chuffed about their engine... and the Lotus low drag configuration makes me think Renault might be worried about power.   Ferrari's approach seems maybe a little more risky than the McLaren design, but if it works it should give Alonso/Kimi the edge.

At this juncture:

1) Ferrari

2) Mercedes

3) Redbull

4) Caterham (because, Kamui)

5) ?

1) Button (unless the Ferrari does have a ton of front downforce like it appears it may have)

2) Kimi

3) Alonso

4) Rosberg

5) Lewis

6) Vettel

7) .... Kamui, just because

 The thing that is troubling to me about my own list, is that I place Kimi and Rosberg above their team mates, who I think are actually faster in outright speed - but are probably not of a temperament that suits the way things will go this year.  I hate that F1 is like that today.

By the same token, I think Sutil could do well, based on his apparent intelligence.

Vettel IMO is the odd man out.  His consistency points to being potentially good, but I would suggest that his penchant for losing his temper and wanting to push for fast lap records -while advised not to - could indicate it could be very bad for him.   Not to mention if it turns out stepping on the gas with the blown diffuser was his specialty.

YMMV.

With a big shift in rules, it is more likely than ever Red Bull will be toppled.
 
Also a lot of experts are predicting that the likes of Ferrari and even more so Mercedes my have the ability to take it to Red Bull this year.
 
So I think its more than hopes and wishes as you are making out.

Edited by Seanspeed, 27 January 2014 - 16:26.

1. Audi

2. Porsche

3. Toyota

4. Rebellion

5. Oak

6. Kodewa

No way to predict the cars, so let's pretend the drivers matter.

1) Ferrari (by a mile)

2) Merc vs. RBR

3) McLaren

4) Lotus (if they enter the grid)

5) Williams

So based on predictions Mercedes is officially the season favourite and Red Bull the big underdog, not even in top 3 in some predictions? 

I think the Mercedes engines will be superior, Renault engines disappointing, Ferrari engines fast but a tad unreliable.

 

I think Ferrari and Red Bull have built the fastest car, but the Red Bull will be unreliable, as such is the Newey trademark.

This. 

I expect Ferrari, RBR and Mercedes at the top. Perhaps even McLaren, although it's difficult to predict something for them. Reliability-wise, and looking at all sort of new regulation years from the past, Newey's RB10 could suffer a bit. But then again, who knows? Maybe everyone will suffer. 

Mercedes (It's Hamilton's year, I can sense it...And Merc engine is likely to be the most reliable)

Red Bull (Vettel in superb form, Newey unlikely to mess up regs, will just lose out to Merc engine)

Ferrari (Kimi & Alonso fireworks will cost them but they'll be in the fight to the end.)

Mclaren (I sense Mclaren is a mess behind the scenes & I have no confidence in their race ops, weakest driver combo of top 4 teams)

Torro Rosso
Force India
Sauber
Williams

Lotus
Caterham
Marussia
 

People say that the Mercedes engine could be (far) superior, but last we heard that rumour was some time ago already, some time last year. What about now? And how about other things. For example fuel efficiency. Mercedes may have more BHP, but if their fuel efficiency is worse than the one of other engines, they may actually suffer instead of gaining.

At this point it seems like Mercedes is really chuffed about their engine... and the Lotus low drag configuration makes me think Renault might be worried about power.   Ferrari's approach seems maybe a little more risky than the McLaren design, but if it works it should give Alonso/Kimi the edge.

 

At this juncture:

 

1) Ferrari

2) Mercedes

3) Redbull

4) Caterham (because, Kamui)

5) ?

 

1) Button (unless the Ferrari does have a ton of front downforce like it appears it may have)

2) Kimi

3) Alonso

4) Rosberg

5) Lewis

6) Vettel

7) .... Kamui, just because

 

 

 The thing that is troubling to me about my own list, is that I place Kimi and Rosberg above their team mates, who I think are actually faster in outright speed - but are probably not of a temperament that suits the way things will go this year.  I hate that F1 is like that today.

 

By the same token, I think Sutil could do well, based on his apparent intelligence.

 

Vettel IMO is the odd man out.  His consistency points to being potentially good, but I would suggest that his penchant for losing his temper and wanting to push for fast lap records -while advised not to - could indicate it could be very bad for him.   Not to mention if it turns out stepping on the gas with the blown diffuser was his specialty.

 

YMMV.

Yeah that's really hurt Vettel over the last 4 years... 

Ferrari and Mercedes will fight for the championship. 

Edited by Jape65, 27 January 2014 - 19:31.

before first testing, will change after - maybe

Ferrari (more of a hope and hope it is good enough to challenge for the WCC and WDC, they have Alonso and Kimi)

Red Bull (they are Red Bull after all and might have another good car or even the best car and they have Vettel, but Ricciardo is a questionmark)

Mercedes (should be strong)

expecting these 3 to be close

McLaren

Force India

Williams

Lotus

Sauber

Toro Rosso

Caterham

Marussia

Blind projections are asked exactly at the right time - just a day before winter tests, where we will finally get an idea whether Mercedes engine really has 100 bhp more than others and just breezes past on the straights.

1. Red Bull
2. Ferrari
3. Mercedes
4. McLaren

5. Force India

6. Lotus

7. Williams

8. Torro Rosso

9. Sauber
10. Marussia

11. Caterham
 

First few races to be chaos with no clear leader. Red Bull to develop their car quicker and better than anyone else to take the lead mid season and never look back.

Lotus to drop becuase they have no money to develop.

Ferrari/Merc to be tight, but Red getting more regular good points finishes than silver because ALO/RAI > HAM/ROS.

Williams to have a good year becuase I want them to (very scientific)

Mercedes

Ferrari

Red Bull

McLaren

Force India

Lotus

Williams

Sauber

Toro Rosso

Caterham

Marussia

1 Red Bull
2 Ferrari
3 Mercedes
4 McLaren
5 Force India
6 Lotus
7 Williams
8 Sauber
9 Torro Rosso
10 Caterham
11 Marussia

1. Red Bull

2. Mercedes

3. Ferrari

The rest.

1. Mercedes

2. Red Bull

3. Ferrari.

4. McLaren

5. Williams

6.Force India

7. Sauber

8. Lotus

9.Torro Rosso

10 Caterham

11 Marussia

WDC: Fernando Alonso has a season that's better than his 2012's....

1.  Red Bull

2.  Ferrari

3.  Mercedes

4.  McLaren

5.  STRF

6.  Force India

7.  Williams

8.  Sauber

9.  Lotus

10.  Caterham

11.  Marussia

Red Bull Ferrari Merc and the rest

The teams that developed their own engines are so far ahead its not even fair

Vaguely realistic heart:

1. Mercedes

2. Ferrari

3. McLaren

4. Red Bull

5. Williams

6. Force India

7. Sauber

8. Lotus

9. Toro Rosso

10. Marussia

11. Caterham

Head:

1. Red Bull

2. Mercedes

3. Ferrari

4. McLaren

5. Force India

6. Lotus

7. Toro Rosso

8. Williams

9. Sauber

10. Caterham

11. Marussia

I really want to see Mercedes with the best or equal best car, but honestly I will take anything as long as there isn't too much fizzy drink on the top step.

I'm going with the idea that's just popped into my head that engines and reliability will be the dominating factor and that will cost the Renault engined teams most - total guess (which I beleive is the spirit of this thread so don't ask me to prove/back up anything)! 

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. McLaren
4. Red Bull
5. Williams
6. Force India
7. Lotus
8. Sauber
9. Toro Rosso
10. Marussia
11. Caterham

Edited by Rinehart, 28 January 2014 - 09:27.

No idea. I think McLaren will be back on top. I don't want to say Button isn't a top driver, but he might not extract everything from the car, which I think will be very competitive. Too much hype about Mercedes for them to be slow as well. Lotus recent problems might have hurt them, but if they started designing the car back in 2012, they might have a solid foundation and be still competitive at the start, but lose out in development.

I really hope one of the midfield cars found some clever solution to close the gap to the front runners.

To my mind two things make the outcome clearer, its going to be a year dictated by engines blowing up and drivers being able to nurse cars home. So driver wise you are going to see Jenson, Fred and Kimi doing very well but with Fred and Kimi taking points off one another - however, I see one of the Mercedes drivers taking the WDC with Ferrari getting the WCC due to the combined points hovers in the drivers seats. Red Bull will have a shocker season with the first few races being dominated by heating and engine issues.

Ferrari, 

Mercedes,

McLaren,

Red Bull,

Williams.

Hamliton,

Alonso,

Raikkonen,

Button,

Rosberg,

Vettel.

I also don't see Lotus seeing the year out.

1. Ferrari

2. Mercedes

3. Red Bull

4. McLaren

5. Lotus

6. Force India

7. Williams

8. Sauber

9. Toro Rosso

10. Marussia

11. Caterham

Well, I'm putting £10 on Button for the championship...