Blind Projections for 2014

Good list in general, but this one made me scratch my head. Lewis was stunning at Austin in 2012, and pretty good in 2013. I would say in equal machinery, he holds an edge over Nico at that track.

The fact that someone is very good around one circuit doesn't have to mean he will win that race against his team-mate. There are many variables in and outside the control of each driver which may change the actual outcome.

My blind prediction is this.

 

For the WDC my head is firmly in 3 minds. I see a decent argument for Lewis and Nico, but I also find it hard to totally discount Vettel/RB. My heart is firmly hoping Lewis pulls it together and secures his long awaited 2nd WDC.

 

I will go with my heart, and say Lewis win be WDC, as there is no fun is sitting on the fence all the time.

 

WCC? I will go with Mercedes, as 2 of their drivers make up the 3 drivers I think have the best chance of becoming WDC.

As at this moment there is no reason to think SV has a shot at retaining his title.... 

 

I'll cheat and modify my list:

 

March 16: Australia - Hamilton
March 30: Malaysia - Bottas
April 6: Bahrain - Hamilton
April 20: China - Rosberg
May 11: Spain - Alonso
May 25: Monaco - Rosberg
June 8: Canada - Hamilton
June 22: Austria - Rosberg
July 6: Great Britain - Alonso
July 20: Germany - Hamilton
July 27: Hungary - Hamilton
August 24: Belgium - Raikkonen
September 7: Italy - Button
September 21: Singapore - Alonso
October 5: Japan - Button
October 12: Russia - Alonso
November 2: USA - Rosberg
November 9: Brazil - Magnussen
November 23: Abu Dhabi - Hamilton

 

1. Hamilton - 6 wins

2. Alonso - 4 wins

3. Rosberg - 4 wins

4. Button - 2 wins

5. Raikkonen - 1 win

6. Magnussen - 1 win

7. Hulkenberg

8. Bottas - 1 win

9. Massa

10. Vettel

 

IMHO if things stay like this for the whole season, LH will do at least 8 wins ... and being LH, you cant predict where they will come. 

The fact that someone is very good around one circuit doesn't have to mean he will win that race against his team-mate. There are many variables in and outside the control of each driver which may change the actual outcome.

 

Yes, but these are "blind projections"

Given past form, I cannot see a reason why anyone would project Nico to beat Lewis at Austin this year.

Yes, but these are "blind projections"

 

Given past form, I cannot see a reason why anyone would project Nico to beat Lewis at Austin this year.

Someone can project Lewis will have a car failure in that race and here we go...

I also remember last year. The track on which Rosberg was outperformed by the biggest margin of all races by Lewis was considered his best circuit until that point (Shanghai), and then he outperformed Lewis by the biggest margin on Barcelona, which seemed to be a below average track for him.

Someone can project Lewis will have a car failure in that race and here we go...

 

I also remember last year. The track on which Rosberg was outperformed by the biggest margin of all races by Lewis was considered his best circuit until that point (Shanghai), and then he outperformed Lewis by the biggest margin on Barcelona, which seemed to be a below average track for him.

I find it a bit odd people would try and predict when car failures will happen, it is a random event at this stage in my opinion. Fair play, if people want to try and predict them, but it just seems like predicting Saturday's Lottery Numbers.

Edited by sennafan24, 04 March 2014 - 09:28.

but it just seems like predicting Saturday's Lottery Numbers.

Trying to predict who would win a certain race is not much different from that. Things we don't know yet, like what circuits will match the strengths of what cars, and what random events will hapen during those races, will definetely outweight the previous record of each driver on particular track.

Bottas will win more that one race

Trying to predict who would win a certain race is not much different from that. 

Yes, but at least then you can take into consideration past form and what we have seen in testing. They are not always accurate measurements, but they are informed by valid information and not complete randomness.

Predicting that one driver will get a DNF at one track, and another will not is purely random.

Predicting that one driver will get a DNF at one track, and another will not is purely random.

Not really. You can take into the account things like reliability of given car during testing etc. etc.

If there's no dominant car over a season, I'm fairly sure nobody will guess accurately more than around 1/3 of winners in races. And the probability says you would guess some winners even putting driver randomly, excluding obvious drivers who don't stand a chance, like Caterham and Marussia drivers. So there is not that much diffference, really.

Not really. You can take into the account things like reliability of given car during testing etc. etc.

 

Sorry, I should have clarified

I meant predicting one teammate will suffer a mechanical failure at one track, whilst his teammate will not.

The great thing is how I genuinely have no idea what to expect. I remember how badly wrong I got my 2009 predictions (I had a bet with my friends and we were all pretty far off) and that was after testing. So here goes.

 

1. Ferrari

2. Mercedes

3. McLaren

4. Red Bull

5. Lotus

6. Williams

7. Sauber

8. Force India

9. Toro Rosso

10. Caterham

11. Marussia

I feel like I've already got it seriously wrong. Haha!

People seriously underestimate Redbull. That’s a huge mistake. They might start at the back but as soon as Renault will sort out their problems  they will be up there. 

Let's see how well we did as a group. Averaging our predicted positions for each team, I proudly present, the Wisdom of the Autosport Crowds.

Pre-Testing:

1 - Mercedes

2 - Ferrari

3 - Red Bull

4 - McLaren

5 - Force India

6 - Williams

7 - Lotus

8 - Sauber

9 - Toro Rosso

10- Caterham

11- Marussia

Since testing started:

1 - Mercedes

2 - Ferrari

3 - McLaren

4 - Red Bull

5 - Williams

6 - Force India

7 - Sauber

8 - Lotus

9 - Toro Rosso

10- Marussia

11- Caterham

Australia:

1.Wiliams

2.Ferrari

3.Mercedes

4.Red Bull

5. Force India

6. McLaren

7.Toro Rosso

8. Sauber

9. Lotus

10. Marussia

11. Caterham

People seriously underestimate Redbull. That’s a huge mistake. They might start at the back but as soon as Renault will sort out their problems  they will be up there.

At the minute it seems as though both Red Bull and Renault have some serious problems. I have no doubt that by the time the European circuit comes around these will be ironed out somewhat, but by then I think they will be a long way behind.
I think that there is a fair chance that before Spain they could be a hundred points behind three teams, and that's quite a lot to make up, if the season is as unpredictable as people think it will be.

Serious for the moment - yes. But remember that journalists and even Button were surprised by RB’s traction in high speed corners.  It may as well take 4-5 races to fix the engine (or even more), but after that they might be on top again. I’m not saying that will happen but people predicting RB 0 wins and being one of the worst teams in 2014 imho is a huge underestimation.

Australia:

1.Mercedes

2.Wiliams

3.McLaren

4.Ferrari

5.Force India

6.Toro Rosso

7.Lotus

8.Red Bull

9.Sauber

10.Marussia

11.Caterham

I doubt Williams is really that good. I would still put my money on McLaren and Ferrari to be ahead of them. It's been a bit too long since Williams produced a top car and not much have changed within factory and engineering side of the team. And I also don't believe they can keep up with the development throughout the year. 

Australia:
1. Merc
2. McLaren
3. Ferrari (results might be flattered by two great drivers)
4. Williams
= Red Bull (expecting them to run into problems later in the race and forced to retire or back off)
6. Force India
= Lotus
8. Sauber
= Caterham
10. Torro Rosso
11. Marussia

Just about time to dig this one up I suppose. It looks like none of us were spot on for the first five positions, and to be honest the positions behind that can be a lot harder to predict. Did anybody apart from Slarti have Williams beat Ferrari AND McLaren ? Nobody had Marussa beat Sauber, I'm sure. Can anybody be bothered to work out who was most accurate / lucky ? 

Not off by much...Ricciardo surprised most, Lotus was much worse than expected, Williams much better than expected

 

There are lots of uncertainties with all the changes, but I will start with 2013 results and try to predict if they go up or down based on what the teams have done until now in terms of development and drivers. So, here it's the 2013 result with my prediction next:

1. RedBull -1 - because their strike has to end (and Ricciardo will suffer)
2. Mercedes +1 - strong drivers, strong team, strong engine
3. Ferrari - Alonso will fight, but Kimi will struggle
4. Lotus -3 - because of Maldonado
5. McLaren - don't see any big change for them
6. Force India +2 - because of Hulk
7. Sauber +1 - I like them
8. Toro Rosso -1 - don't see them doing anything special
9. Williams +1 - will improve on the terrible year they had
10. Marussia - same as last year
11. Caterham - same as last year

So the result on 2014 should be:

1. Mercedes
2. RedBull
3. Ferrari
4. Force India
5. McLaren
6. Sauber
7. Lotus
8. Williams
9. Toro Rosso
10. Marussia
11. Caterham

 

Honda engine worse than Renault's.

Merc - WCC material if Pirelli puts out tires that can handle their monster engine.

Williams - Fights for 3rd in the WCC.

Marussia - 8th in WCC.

Toro Rosso - Same as Red Bull, but lacks resources to put out the fire. Inherits the Burn sponsorship from Lotus.

Caterham - Loses the Airbus sponsorship, the corporation stating 'not enough air, too much bus', DJ Malloy pulls out of the circus, goes kingfishing.

Honda engine worse than Renault's.

It always looked highly suspicious to me that people completely wrote off Red Bull after initial winter testing struggles and didn't project them even into top 3. I mean even if Red Bull and Renault are not in exactly great form, they are not really that bad that they shouldn't make it into top 3! And so it proved, comfortably second in the end.

Even though I didn't exactly predict anything here, I think the team I personally misjudged most was Williams. I have been pretty suspicious about them for years and had big doubts about their ability to turn their fortunes around. Even though they had the best power unit, they were very impressive. Easily the second fastest car at the end of the season, well above McLaren and Force India, the other Mercedes customers.