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Could 2010 be another 2002 or 2004 season?

Started by D.M.N. , Feb 03 2010 15:50

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57 replies to this topic

#1 D.M.N.

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 15:50

Looking at testing from Monday, yesterday and today, Ferrari look head and shoulders above the rest. I know you can argue that they could be running extremely light, but I don't think they are myself. If their car is really lightning fast, could this really be another 2002 or 2004 season where Ferrari could just run off into the distance?

#2 stevvy1986

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:06

After 3 days of testing, with not everyone running their definitive 2010 packages (Mercedes apparently not running their definitive 2010 front wing or diffuser at the moment), and not all the cars having tested yet (who knows what the Red Bull will be like for example), and the fact it's only on the 1 circuit, with potentially wildly varying fuel loads, I think personally that it's far too early to say anything for certain, let alone that it'll be like 2002 or 2004. Give it another couple of tests perhaps, or more likely, practice in Bahrain, then we'll get a better idea. Definitely too early to tell.

Edited by stevvy1986, 03 February 2010 - 16:07.

#3 UPRC

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:07

Too early to tell. I'll wait until the last day of testing before I even venture a guess.

#4 craftverk

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:09

Puhhhlease. If this was the final test at Barcelona then I could see why you would make this thread. Valencia is too tight and twisty for it to be a real indicator of pace, and it's the first test.

No one predicted Ferrari dominance in 2004 this early on.

Edited by craftverk, 03 February 2010 - 16:12.

#5 Tenmantaylor

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:10

If you look down the years of pre season testing speed at initial testing is usually a good indicator of season start performance. Its rarely an indication of season dominance, the development race is so important now. Brawn with there 6 tenths in testing last year looked liked they would dominate last year but had arguably been overtaken by mid season. The same could easily happen again.

#6 Crazy Ninja

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:11

Waaayyyy to early to tell. I aint predicting anything till Red Bull launch their car and even then, we wont really know the true pace of each team till Bahrain. A pit pointless to get too excited/downbeat over your team's performance so far.

#7 Alfisti

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:11

We need to see the Red Bull first.

#8 Brawn BGP 001

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:11

I'm waiting 'till Barcelona before making any predictions.

We haven't even seen the Red Bull yet.

#9 Raincoat

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:13

Ferrari is half a second faster the Sauber. Not something to make other teams worried. Lets see what McLaren, RBR and Merc say. Ferrari are okay but nothing extraordinary

#10 kar

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:14

We need to see the Red Bull first.

Agreed. They will be a little bit :eek:

I reckon.

#11 stevvy1986

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:15

It really is impossible to say it will be like 2002/2004. Like I said, Mercedes aren't running their 2010 front wig or diffuser yet, Renault plan to have a big aero upgrade before the start of the season, some cars havent tested yet, practically every team will bring upgrades to the first race, we don't know the fuel loads, etc. We're as well waiting until after practice in Bahrain before making any definite predictions.

#12 kismet

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:17

Yes, it certainly could.

#13 moorsey

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:18

Ask me again in November.

#14 min12

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:24

Looks like some are ready to give the titles to Ferrari already. And that only after the 1st testing session, there were even comments in another thread that it would be nice to have Ferrari win every race. All of this without the slightest knowledge about car weights, a bit premature for some tifosi like kar but hey, I can understand after the pain and suffering in 2009.

#15 Demo.

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:40

reality check time
2009
16th Feb
Unofficial Monday times from Bahrain:
1. Christian Klien, BMW Sauber, 1:32.544
2. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari, 1:32.804
3. Jarno Trulli, Toyota, 1:33.064
17th Feb
Unofficial Tuesday times from Bahrain:
1. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari, 1:32.102
2. Jarno Trulli, Toyota, 1:32.230
3. Nick Heidfeld, BMW Sauber, 1:32.585
18th Feb
Unofficial Wednesday times from Bahrain:
1. Timo Glock, Toyota, 1:32.492
2. Felipe Massa, Ferrari, 1:32.917
3. Nick Heidfeld, BMW Sauber, 1:32.993
19th Feb
Unofficial Thursday times from Bahrain:
1. Felipe Massa, Ferrari, 1:32.162
2. Nick Heidfeld, BMW Sauber, 1:32.225
3. Timo Glock, Toyota, 1:32.445
yet remember how they performed last year?
Early tests mean nothing as most know.
But then we also know that never stops the fanboys from any team claiming all sorts of things.

Edited by Demo., 03 February 2010 - 16:43.

#16 D.M.N.

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:43

reality check time
2009
16th Feb
Unofficial Monday times from Bahrain:
1. Christian Klien, BMW Sauber, 1:32.544
2. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari, 1:32.804
3. Jarno Trulli, Toyota, 1:33.064
17th Feb
Unofficial Tuesday times from Bahrain:
1. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari, 1:32.102
2. Jarno Trulli, Toyota, 1:32.230
3. Nick Heidfeld, BMW Sauber, 1:32.585
18th Feb
Unofficial Wednesday times from Bahrain:
1. Timo Glock, Toyota, 1:32.492
2. Felipe Massa, Ferrari, 1:32.917
3. Nick Heidfeld, BMW Sauber, 1:32.993
19th Feb
Unofficial Thursday times from Bahrain:
1. Felipe Massa, Ferrari, 1:32.162
2. Nick Heidfeld, BMW Sauber, 1:32.225
3. Timo Glock, Toyota, 1:32.445

Yet as many people have pointed out early tests mean nothing as we all know what happened with Ferrari last year.

There were only 3 teams testing then. When you have 7 teams testing, and the same one comes out top on all 3 days, surely it says something? :confused:

#17 Raziel

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:44

reality check time
2009
16th Feb
Unofficial Monday times from Bahrain:
1. Christian Klien, BMW Sauber, 1:32.544
2. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari, 1:32.804
3. Jarno Trulli, Toyota, 1:33.064
17th Feb
Unofficial Tuesday times from Bahrain:
1. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari, 1:32.102
2. Jarno Trulli, Toyota, 1:32.230
3. Nick Heidfeld, BMW Sauber, 1:32.585
18th Feb
Unofficial Wednesday times from Bahrain:
1. Timo Glock, Toyota, 1:32.492
2. Felipe Massa, Ferrari, 1:32.917
3. Nick Heidfeld, BMW Sauber, 1:32.993
19th Feb
Unofficial Thursday times from Bahrain:
1. Felipe Massa, Ferrari, 1:32.162
2. Nick Heidfeld, BMW Sauber, 1:32.225
3. Timo Glock, Toyota, 1:32.445
yet remember how they performed last year?
Early tests mean nothing as most know.
But then we also know that never stops the fanboys from any team claiming all sorts of things.

yet some people will never learn. Oh well...I don´t care :cool:

#18 mkay

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:46

D.M.N., you're a very good poster here, but it's either too early to tell and "no, it's not going to be like 2002/2004."

First, the rules will help tightening the grid and also you haven't seen the other team's jokers. Mercedes has half-a-car at the moment, McLaren is still going through their checks/flow-viz, Red Bull has not even shown their cars. Then, add the fact that the fuel loads are probably as different as they can be... and you get a big mess..

#19 Demo.

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:47

There were only 3 teams testing then. When you have 7 teams testing, and the same one comes out top on all 3 days, surely it says something?

NO IT DOES NOT!!!

Listen to the teams who should know and they all say the same thing.
Its too early, we dont know what others are doing.

Thats been said on the board hundreds of times in the last 3 days and untold times at the track by the teams too.

Ferrari were the quickest on the track over the 3 days but that is all you can say about relative perfomances of the teams
Anything more is just wishfull thinking.

Edited by Demo., 03 February 2010 - 16:53.

#20 D.M.N.

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:54

D.M.N., you're a very good poster here, but it's either too early to tell and "no, it's not going to be like 2002/2004."

First, the rules will help tightening the grid and also you haven't seen the other team's jokers. Mercedes has half-a-car at the moment, McLaren is still going through their checks/flow-viz, Red Bull has not even shown their cars. Then, add the fact that the fuel loads are probably as different as they can be... and you get a big mess..

Some good points you make there... I didn't realise that Mercedes weren't running a full 2010 car as such. It's just an observation that is being made about Ferrari.

NO IT DOES NOT!!!

Listen to the teams who should know and they all say the same thing.
Its too early, we dont know what others are doing.

Woah, calm down.

OK, it probably is too early... but at the same point are they really going to admit it if they think that Ferrari is out in front?

Guess we'll wait until Jerez for PSR2 (Pre-Season Round 2)....;)

#21 Odvan

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:57

Domi need to show how F10 very very quick for sure sure. In other way he could start looking for job on the factory. :wave:

#22 mkay

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:58

Some good points you make there... I didn't realise that Mercedes weren't running a full 2010 car as such. It's just an observation that is being made about Ferrari.

Ferrari looks good. Looks better than Mercedes at the moment, that's for sure, as both teams have tried short stints and Ferrari always came on top. The thing with Mercedes is that they still have their 2009 diffuser and apparently are still hiding their big joker.

With regards to McLaren, you can't really compare short stints. However, both have done medium-length stints (20-30 laps) and, according to numerous sources, lap at around the same speed (1:12 - 1:13 for both Alonso/Hamilton).

Sauber, too many unknowns to really tell.

Red Bull, we'll see in a week.

But.... Ferrari looks pretty good so far. That's the only thing we can take out of those 3 sessions at Valencia.

#23 Raincoat

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 16:59

D.M.N what would you saying if Ferrari have the best car and still get beaten just like 2008? :wave:

#24 stevvy1986

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 17:00

All the tracks will be important in different ways, which is another thing to take into account (eg Barcelona is usually a good indicator of your aero performance, whereas other tracks are less so), as well as not all the cars running full 2010 spec.

#25 J2NH

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 17:04

Puhhhlease. If this was the final test at Barcelona then I could see why you would make this thread. Valencia is too tight and twisty for it to be a real indicator of pace, and it's the first test.

No one predicted Ferrari dominance in 2004 this early on.

If memory serves me correctly it only became apparent at the very last test before the start of the season that Ferrari had found something.

This year is even going to be more fuzzy. Ferrari looks fast but these are going to be long races starting on FULL tanks. For all we know Ferrari will be a dog on full tanks, eat tyres, or still have a fuel economy issues. How about we wait a while before jumping to conclusions?

Nice to see the teams came prepared and nobody was struggling with reliability.

#26 FonzCam

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 17:05

Until Red Bull break cover it's far to early to call. This has got to be the first time so many new cars have launched at the same test in previous years it wasn't until later (if at all) that we'd get Ferrari and McLaren on the same track at the same time. Without knowledge of what is being tested and why testing times mean very little at this stage.

#27 Zeroninety

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 17:08

Even if Ferrari runs away with the season, Alonso vs Massa should be more of a fight than Schumi vs Rubens.

#28 Atreiu

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 17:08

No.
Alonso is no Schumacher and Massa is much much better than Barrichello.
Not to mention Red Bull not bothering to show up this week, the lot of improvement to come at Mercedes and Hamilton's pace from yesterday.
Heck, it's way too earlly to tell.

#29 Bishy

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 17:16

The words "chicken" "hatch" "too soon" all spring to mind and I voted as such...

#30 PNSD

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 17:16

We need a real track to judge because who else remembers the MP4-19 setting blistering times here in 2004?

Also I think regarding development, last year with the introduction of the new regs it was not as clear cut the correct direction of development, so once it was found bigger gains were made. Now with a full year's experience I think development will be more about optimisation again, as like prior 2009. The big gains have been made last year by most the teams, it was one of the reason I felt the grid was so up and down much of the time.

#31 Andy865

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 17:25

D.M.N what would you saying if Ferrari have the best car and still get beaten just like 2008?

Hi all, first post

unless im completely wrong, didnt ferrari win the 2008 constructors championship?

as regards the topic, i think its far too early to tell. there hasnt really been any great anaylsis of the long run times made by the teams, just their fastest laps, when even they can be skewed by fuel weights. I wouldnt be surpised if renault and williams havent bothered to attempt fast laps.

Then with all the doubt about various technical packages(mercs still running 09 aero, even the front wing on the ferrari looks like a very small evolution from the final f60 one), and the fact that red bull havent shown up yet, makes drawing a firm conclusion impossible in my view.

The signs for ferrari seem positiv, not negative, thats all i reckon can be said at this point. apologies for the massive ramble, in short i havent a clue if theyre going to dominate. :confused:

#32 FlashMaster

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 17:26

No!

Because I expect the Macs to be fast and we still did not see the RBR (WDC car 2010) :cool:

#33 batsnumbereleven

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 17:37

The first real indication of how the season is likely to go will be qualifying for Bahrain. Until then everything is smoke and mirrors.

#34 Sakae

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 17:39

Looking at testing from Monday, yesterday and today, Ferrari look head and shoulders above the rest. I know you can argue that they could be running extremely light, but I don't think they are myself. If their car is really lightning fast, could this really be another 2002 or 2004 season where Ferrari could just run off into the distance?

I think too that it is too early to say. My heart is with Seb and Michael, and I am concerned about Ferrari's consistent, and fast pace. I also do not think they were running on fumes.
The only bright spot in this bleak outlook are some basic unanswered key factors, such as if Ferrari is ready to keep such pace on one tank for duration of the race, is Ferrari good to tires, because historically their characteristics used to be hard on shoes, and lastly, how much space other teams have to improve from today to get to P1. If Mercedes has fundamentally flawed design concept, than season is over, but that is not what drivers say, so there is hope. Problem all teams will have is not to allow front runners to win all six first races. Improvements have to come quickly, and I think people like Ross, AN and rest of them know that. Barcelona will be a better indicator. Ross run upront there, and we know what followed in 2009.

Edited by MiPe, 03 February 2010 - 17:40.

#35 Les

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 22:30

Jumping to conclusions after 1 test is a bit daft but I have a feeling it will be mostly McLaren and Ferrari this year. I can't say for sure though. For Sure.

#36 Xaus

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 23:15

Jumping to conclusions after 1 test is a bit daft but I have a feeling it will be mostly McLaren and Ferrari this year. I can't say for sure though. For Sure.

For sure, however, for sure you can't really say McLaren and Ferrari for sure because for sure Red Bull, one of the two fastest teams for sure in 2009, are for sure absent from the Valencia test. For sure, we need to wait until the next test where Red Bull will for sure take part in for sure to see how well they do and only if Ferrari and McLaren are also there for sure.

Of course, all of that is a moot point because, for sure, TESTING TIMES MEAN VERY LITTLE. :drunk:

My theory is that people are just so time-starved and they want to push their own personal agendas for teams/drivers so badly that they'll take whatever little crumbs they can and use it to hold themselves until Q1 in Bahrain when the reality of the cars come out. And even then we won't have the DEFINITIVE truth until the end of the race. :cat:

#37 Les

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 23:27

And even then we won't have the DEFINITIVE truth until the end of the race.

Ouch!

There's a good chance we won't know a definite answer then either!

#38 Xaus

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 23:30

Ouch!

There's a good chance we won't know a definite answer then either!

We'll at least know the base line of performance for the cars. The second the flag drops in Bahrain all the testing times becomes irrelevent anyway. Then it becomes much more of a "Who can develop the best parts the fastest" sort of deal as opposed to testing which is all "Working out the kinks and optimizing the systems."

I sincerely doubt anyone is going to sandbag during a RACE... otherwise, why else are you in F1 to begin with?

#39 Kristian

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 23:40

Its far too early to tell in my opinion - Ferrari have been doing mostly short runs, so their headline times are a bit misleading. We have no idea what other teams are doing. Also we have yet to see Red Bull, who I expect to continue on from their pace last year. The other point to consider is the fuel consumption - Ferrari are still reportedly having problems in that department, which could hinder them too.

#40 Captain Tightpants

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 23:40

Waaaay too early to tell. We haven't even seen half the grid yet.

#41 Les

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 23:42

We'll at least know the base line of performance for the cars. The second the flag drops in Bahrain all the testing times becomes irrelevent anyway. Then it becomes much more of a "Who can develop the best parts the fastest" sort of deal as opposed to testing which is all "Working out the kinks and optimizing the systems."

I sincerely doubt anyone is going to sandbag during a RACE... otherwise, why else are you in F1 to begin with?

Absolutely, no-one would.

Anyway. I agree it will be the 1st race before we have a real picture of how things look, otherwise its just a bunch of daft predictions like the one I made above. :rotfl:

I may be totally wrong but If I was a betting man I would place my money on them.

#42 h_nair47

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Posted 04 February 2010 - 00:12

No.
Alonso is no Schumacher and Massa is much much better than Barrichello.
Not to mention Red Bull not bothering to show up this week, the lot of improvement to come at Mercedes and Hamilton's pace from yesterday.
Heck, it's way too earlly to tell.

Well said...anyway Merc don't have their front wing or a new diffusor. Red Bull have not even showed up and Macca is still working on their own car. So I would say no.

#43 Messi10

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Posted 04 February 2010 - 02:20

No really since in 2002 despite Ferrari's superiority Rubens had to give up a win for Shumacher.

This year if ferrari has a very dominant just like in 02 and 04, I expect a tight battle for the WDC between Massa and Alonso..

#44 gerry nassar

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Posted 04 February 2010 - 02:36

Too early to tell.

Wait till Barcelona - thats a proper track that gives you an idea how good the cars are.

#45 Henrytheeigth

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Posted 04 February 2010 - 04:33

I really hope Ferrari kicks ass! I mean MS returning to F1, not in a Ferrari and getting beatin by Ferrari, would feel so fabulous as a Ferrari fan!

Well I can hope lol...

#46 Xaus

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Posted 04 February 2010 - 08:05

Absolutely, no-one would.

Anyway. I agree it will be the 1st race before we have a real picture of how things look, otherwise its just a bunch of daft predictions like the one I made above. I may be totally wrong but If I was a betting man I would place my money on them.

Well, if F1 Racing magazine sources are to be believed then BMW Sauber was allegedly trying to sandbag some races in telling Kubica to "not to try to win the race" in order to keep BMW Board expectations artificially low.

#47 Galko877

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Posted 04 February 2010 - 08:31

Too early. And it will be even too early after the first few races. Last year Jenson won about 6 races out of the first 7 and everybody said it's another 2004. At the end it wasn't and in the second half of the season he hardly even won races. Or 2006 started like Renault/Alonso domination, yet by the end it became very close. Similarly 1998 started with McLaren domination and at the end it was very close.

#48 teejay

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Posted 04 February 2010 - 08:41

Well, if F1 Racing magazine sources are to be believed then BMW Sauber was allegedly trying to sandbag some races in telling Kubica to "not to try to win the race" in order to keep BMW Board expectations artificially low.

So low they left the sport?

#49 BRK

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Posted 04 February 2010 - 08:43

No.
Alonso is no Schumacher and Massa is much much better than Barrichello.
Not to mention Red Bull not bothering to show up this week, the lot of improvement to come at Mercedes and Hamilton's pace from yesterday.
Heck, it's way too earlly to tell.

Spot****ing-on.

#50 Augurk

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Posted 04 February 2010 - 08:46

Well, if F1 Racing magazine sources are to be believed then BMW Sauber was allegedly trying to sandbag some races in telling Kubica to "not to try to win the race" in order to keep BMW Board expectations artificially low.

I have so much trouble believing that, I can hardly read what you're trying to say.

I am however interested in who those sources were, as F1 Racing must've found them to be semi-credible.

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Could 2010 be another 2002 or 2004 season?

Poll: Could 2010 be another 2002 or 2004 season? (134 member(s) have cast votes)

Could 2010 be another 2002 or 2004 season?

#1 D.M.N.

#2 stevvy1986

#3 UPRC

#4 craftverk

#5 Tenmantaylor

#6 Crazy Ninja

#7 Alfisti

#8 Brawn BGP 001

#9 Raincoat

#10 kar

#11 stevvy1986

#12 kismet

#13 moorsey

#14 min12

#15 Demo.

#16 D.M.N.

#17 Raziel

#18 mkay

#19 Demo.

#20 D.M.N.

#21 Odvan

#22 mkay

#23 Raincoat

#24 stevvy1986

#25 J2NH

#26 FonzCam

#27 Zeroninety

#28 Atreiu

#29 Bishy

#30 PNSD

#31 Andy865

#32 FlashMaster

#33 batsnumbereleven

#34 Sakae

#35 Les

#36 Xaus

#37 Les

#38 Xaus

#39 Kristian

#40 Captain Tightpants

#41 Les

#42 h_nair47

#43 Messi10

#44 gerry nassar

#45 Henrytheeigth

#46 Xaus

#47 Galko877

#48 teejay

#49 BRK

#50 Augurk

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