23 replies to this topic

[D.M.N.]

I thought I'd create this thread, as there is a very good possibility that both titles could be wrapped up next weekend. Barrichello (or Vettel) must be 19 points or less behind to keep the title alive - if he isn't then it is game over. Even if it is 20 points, that would leave it level at Abu Dhabi in a situation where Button would have to retire in both races, and Vettel/Barrichello wins - even if that happened Button would have more wins, so takes the title.

For anyone interested, below are the title permutations:

Drivers' Championship
If Button Finishes...
- 1st, Barrichello must finish 3rd or above to keep the title alive. (Vettel is out of the title race if Button wins)
- 2nd, Barrichello must finish 5th or above to keep the title alive. (Vettel is out of the title race if Button finishes 2nd)
- 3rd, Barrichello must finish 7th or above to keep the title alive. (Vettel is out of the title race if Button finishes 3nd)
- 4th, Barrichello must finish 8th or above to keep the title alive. (Vettel is out of the title race if Button finishes 4th)
- 5th, the title race will continue to Brazil regardless of Barrichello's or Vettel's finishing position.

If Barrichello Finishes...
- 1st, 2nd or 3rd, the title race will continue to Brazil regardless of Button's or Vettel's finishing position.
- 4th, Button must finish 1st to be crowned champion.
- 5th, Button must finish 1st to be crowned champion.
- 6th, Button must finish 2nd to be crowned champion.
- 7th, Button must finish 2nd to be crowned champion.
- 8th, Button must finish 3rd to be crowned champion.
- Outside the points, Button must finish 4th to be crowned champion.

If Vettel Finishes...
- 1st, Button cannot finish higher than 4th for Vettel to stay in the title race.
- 2nd, Button cannot finish higher than 6th for Vettel to stay in the title race.
- 3rd, Button cannot finish in the points for Vettel to stay in the title race.
- 4th, he is out of the title race.

Constructors' Championship
- If Brawn get 13 points or more, they are champions.

I dunno how useful the above is, but I thought I'd post it anyway.

A dream scenario, if it was to continue for Brazil would be:

1) Vettel
2) Barrichello

Button out of the points, but considering Button has only retired once this season, me thinks that is unlikely.

Edited by D.M.N., 27 September 2009 - 16:52.

[mkay]

Thank you, mate. Very clear stuff!

Basically, Vettel is toast.

[jonpollak]

Nice Job D.M.N.
Jp

[engel]

Simpler way -> Button needs to finish 4th in all three final races and the championship is his no matter what the others do

[Psymon]

If Vettel Finishes
- 1st, Button cannot finish higher than 4th for Vettel to stay in the title race.
- 2nd, Button cannot finish higher than 6th for Vettel to stay in the title race.
- 3rd or lower, he is out of the title race.

Nice summary, thanks

Not checked any of the other maths, but spotted one mistake, if Vettel finishes 3rd in Japan he will get 6 points, if Button does not finish in the points then Vettel would still theoretically be in the championship as it would mean a gap of 19 points (84 vs 65).

Edited by Psymon, 27 September 2009 - 16:51.

[D.M.N.]

Nice summary, thanks

Not checked any of the other maths, but spotted one mistake, if Vettel finishes 3rd in Japan he will get 6 points, if Button does not finish in the points then Vettel would still theoretically be in the championship as it would mean a gap of 19 points (84 vs 65).

Woops, changed.

Will quickly check for other errors.

[Clatter]

Someone needs to ask Bernie if he still thinks his medal idea is a good one. If that were up and running the WDC would be decided now, instead we still have something to look forward to.

[JPW]

Helpful D.M.N. thanks

[uzi]

great work there. We can only hope that the title fight continues...

[MrAerodynamicist]

Someone needs to ask Bernie if he still thinks his medal idea is a good one. If that were up and running the WDC would be decided now, instead we still have something to look forward to.

The scoring system for the title, whatever it may be, must be based on a fair reflection on achievement and that alone. Whether it results in a close title race, or an early wrap-up, should be irrelevant. Picking a scoring to ensure a close finish is the sort of embarrassing and cheap artificial show that should be left to professional wrestling...

Edited by MrAerodynamicist, 27 September 2009 - 17:07.

[D.M.N.]

The scoring system for the title, whatever it may be, must be based on a fair reflection on achievement and that alone. Whether it results in a close title race, or an early wrap-up, should be irrelevant. Picking a scoring to ensure a close finish is the sort of embarrassing and cheap artificial show that should be left to professional wrestling...

The medals doesn't reward consistent drives - it only rewards those that win the race. We've had the points system since the birth of F1, I see no reason to change it now.

[MrAerodynamicist]

The medals doesn't reward consistent drives - it only rewards those that win the race. We've had the points system since the birth of F1, I see no reason to change it now.

That is a reasonable stance which I can respect, regardless of whether I ultimately agree with it. Whereas using "but the title would already be decided" as a criticism just suggests that person cares too little about the title going to the driver who most deserves it, and far, far too much about The Show.

[D.M.N.]

Appropriate time for JB to mention medals: http://www.autosport...rt.php/id/78992

"The 'winner takes all' system was an unusual idea but F1 is always the way it has been now with points," he told AUTOSPORT about the situation. "So that is the world championship, and that is what I want to win."

Brawn GP's CEO Nick Fry also said he was happy that the title fight was still ongoing, and felt it correct teams had put pressure on the FIA to abandon the rule change.

"I think it will be much more fun going to the last race," he told AUTOSPORT. "I think it is the still the right decision to continue as we were. Personally I am not convinced that copying from something else, like the Olympics, is necessarily the right thing to do. So I am not unhappy."

The points under the ‘winner takes all' system would now be:

Jenson Button 6
Sebastian Vettel 2
Lewis Hamilton 2
Rubens Barrichello 2
Mark Webber 1
Kimi Raikkonen 1

[Clatter]

That is a reasonable stance which I can respect, regardless of whether I ultimately agree with it. Whereas using "but the title would already be decided" as a criticism just suggests that person cares too little about the title going to the driver who most deserves it, and far, far too much about The Show.

I want to see the title go to the right person, but you can't deny that championships that go to the wire are ultimately more exciting and stay in the memory longer.

[ryan86]

I wouldn't say Rubens winning the title with 3 wins to say Jenson's 6 would necessarily mean it was going to the wrong person looking at how the season has panned out. For however good Jenson has been in the first half this year, he's been mediocre in the second.

[Atreiu]

Button just needs to race with an eye on Barrichello.
He can easily close the deal without going to to podium again.

[Brawn BGP 001]

I wouldn't say Rubens winning the title with 3 wins to say Jenson's 6 would necessarily mean it was going to the wrong person looking at how the season has panned out. For however good Jenson has been in the first half this year, he's been mediocre in the second.

Barrichello was mediocre in the first half mind you.

[ryan86]

Agreed that Jenson has possibly had the rough end of the pineapple since the competitiveness of the field has closed up over the season meaning his mis-performances, so even when Rubens was making mistakes in the first half he was still getting points.

But that's the way the cookie crumbles. It has been a bizzare season in that way in that many drivers have had bursts of results, but very little consistency. During the summer break we thought Webber had a good shot. 4 races and 0 points later, he's out of it.

[wtoyzz]

Thanks a lot

[V8 Fireworks]

If RBR are strong in Suzuka, would Webber be required to allow a slower Vettel past to take the win? Certainly Webber fanatics would not be chuffed with such a scenario, given the minimal likelihood of Vettel winning the WDC!

[teejay]

If RBR are strong in Suzuka, would Webber be required to allow a slower Vettel past to take the win? Certainly Webber fanatics would not be chuffed with such a scenario, given the minimal likelihood of Vettel winning the WDC!

Im sure Mark is aware that the team comes first in times like this.

[Captain Tightpants]

I'd love for Button to wrap it up as soon as possible, really. I know that down-to-the-wire championships are fun, but the tension is killing me. It's clearly advantage Button; Barrichello needs to score five points in every race just to force a tie. But then, everyone thought that Singapore was going to be Brawn territory, and while they did make the most of their weekend after qualifying, the race didn't play out the way a lot of people thought it would, particuarly after Monza. With Hamilton being so dominant in both Italy and Singapore - two markedly different circuits - he's clearly going to be the man to beat in Japan, and some of the others are making strong cases for themselves as race contenders. Which is going to make life difficult for Barrichello and Vettel, because they need as many as they can get, and the difference between first and second is greater than the distance between third and fourth.

[V8 Fireworks]

Im sure Mark is aware that the team comes first in times like this.

It's unlikely that would extend to giving up 1 of only 2 wins, when Vettel already has three and has 0.5% chance of winning the championship though.

Hamilton has 11 wins, Fisichella 4 (?) wins etc. Mark has a lot of catching up to do, and will not be giving up victories when Vettel is not a realistic chance of the title.

Webber would move aside from 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc without any drama though.

[Gareth]

Great thread, cheers DMN

Oh and if imitation is the finest form of flattery: http://en.f1-live.co...928153553.shtml

Edited by Gareth, 28 September 2009 - 16:12.