42 replies to this topic

[peterr]

Hi all,

there is one thing about Monaco race that I find interesting enough to ask for your opinion.

When watching the race I most of the time use official live timing to see what's going on, especially when pit stops start. I don't know if I interpreted this correctly, but I noticed some strange pit stop strategy from Mercedes team with Nico Rosberg. He was just behind Schumacher when Schumi pitted. Then Roberg stayed out and started to put some fast laps in the clear air, which were faster than Schumis laps. That was until Rosberg got stuck behind Webber on cold tires. At that point he started to lose time to Schumi, and I anticipated he will pit immediately. But he stayed out for another 4 or 5 laps, when he was obviously losing time to Schumacher, and when he finally pitted, and came out of the pits, he was just behind Schumi. Since he was losing time for the last 4 or 5 laps before he pitted, I'm almost sure he would emerge in front of Schumi (and maybe not just Schumi) if he pitted just before Webber "stopped" him.

To me it looks like he was left out losing time just long enough to emerge from the pits behind Schumi and in front of other drivers behind them. I'm not sure about the intentions of the team, but I'm quite sure about the timings, because I closely watched what was going on as it was quite obvious that Rosberg should come in before he got stuck behind Webber or at least immediately when that happened for optimal result for him.

Anyone else noticed that? Is there any way I could verify this, some lap by lap analysis of the race?

(Please keep it on topic, I've seen too many interesting threads on this forum destroyed by going off topic )

[Alfisti]

Should have pitted as soon as they saw Webber pit. Then it may just have worked.

[SpeedRacer`]

It probably would've worked if Kobayashi hadn't retired when he did

[aisiai]

Yep I remember quite well Rosberg putting two fastest laps after Michael came in.
When Webber emerged in front of him I thought Rosb will be called in. But he wasn't.
I had no live timing and thought that the team saw the pair Webb Rosb was still faster
than the rest and decided to stay out.

Just to add: I remember after that looking at Pit Stop Times : Michael's was just 0.2sec faster than Rosberg's

Edited by aisiai, 17 May 2010 - 15:30.

[Messi10]

weird strategy indeed . He lost the time gained staying out with webber infront. He could have even leapfrog Alonso.

[beute]

Should have pitted as soon as they saw Webber pit. Then it may just have worked.

explain...

no one actually knows what happened with kobayashi

he just disappeared.

[h_nair47]

It would have worked and he would jumped both Alonso and MS if Koba did not retire.

[button_sw]

I think this race was a missed opportunity for Rosberg, he seemed to have great pace in qualifying until the cock up in Q3 and was probably the 2nd quickest car behind Webber all weekend. If things had gone smoothly I pretty sure he would have picked up a podium so alot of dropped points for Merc in the race.

[TURU]

I think this race was a missed opportunity for Rosberg, he seemed to have great pace in qualifying until the cock up in Q3 and was probably the 2nd quickest car behind Webber all weekend. If things had gone smoothly I pretty sure he would have picked up a podium so alot of dropped points for Merc in the race.

eeeeee no, he wasn't.

[Messi10]

It would have worked and he would jumped both Alonso and MS if Koba did not retire.

but koba did retire and they had thelaptimes from both alonso and shumi to see that they were both gaining on him when he was held up by webber. So at that point the team had the option to bring him in quick and make it close with alonso and shumi or leave him out to lose more time .

[schuey100]

If you look closely at the times he didn't have enough to get out in front of the Schumi, Alonso Hamilton group so he needed a few more laps, Ross recognised that Koba was going to hold up the three drivers so it made sense to keep him out, as seen by the lap times he was doing and the gap he was increasing. Unfortunately for him Koba retired and let the group past, then all hope was lost. If Koba stayed out another couple of laps then Rosberg would have finished nicely ahead of that group.

[King Six]

Everyone should have just done what Alonso did as soon as the first SC came out

[schuey100]

Actually I thought that Michael probably had the call on when to pit and wondered if he would let Rosberg pit first knowing that he would get a load of clear air to make up some positions. I guess he probably realised he couldn't do 1:17s so he thought he'd play safe whereas Rosberg was fast enough to use a late pit as an advantage, and it would have been, just unfortunate for Rosberg that Koba retired a lap too early.

[apoka]

Rosberg did a couple of fastest laps and I thought that he has a good chance to emerge in front of Alonso. However, someone later mentioned that his gap to Alonso/MS was never big enough.

[Lights]

I was following it carefully.

I think it was brilliant. He could have won so much.

The problem was Webber coming out right infront of him.. and then taking it a bit easy. Webber could go quicker, but why would he, he was leading.
The second problem was the midfield teams pitting quite soon after the top teams. Only Kobayashi stayed out quite long, but then for some reason suddenly lost all those places and then Massa etc. were through.

Without those two problems (Webber infront, Kobayashi making mistake(?) so the rest was 'free'), and given the same amount of laps, Rosberg would have leapfrogged them all and could have finished 4th, infront of Massa.

It was worth the risk. It almost worked. When Hamilton pitted and the rest folllowed, and I saw them falling back in traffic while Rosberg was setting fastest sector times, I was thinking he would make it. But he was just a bit too far behind before the pitstops to make it work.

EDIT: Just read above here that Kobayashi retired. Didn't even know that, guess I don't really notice it anymore when a Sauber retires.

Edited by Lights, 17 May 2010 - 15:56.

[h_nair47]

I was following it carefully.

I think it was brilliant. He could have won so much.

The problem was Webber coming out right infront of him.. and then taking it a bit easy. Webber could go quicker, but why would he, he was leading.
The second problem was the midfield teams pitting quite soon after the top teams. Only Kobayashi stayed out quite long, but then for some reason suddenly lost all those places and then Massa etc. were through.

Without those two problems (Webber infront, Kobayashi making mistake(?) so the rest was 'free'), and given the same amount of laps, Rosberg would have leapfrogged them all and could have finished 4th, infront of Massa.

It was worth the risk. It almost worked. When Hamilton pitted and the rest folllowed, and I saw them falling back in traffic while Rosberg was setting fastest sector times, I was thinking he would make it. But he was just a bit too far behind before the pitstops to make it work.

Yup..it was good strategy. He needed couple more laps without Webber in front to make enough of a gap. Pitting him when Webber came out would still have out him below MS. Once Webber came out the only chance was Koba holding the Alonso/MS group up because Webber and him were still lapping faster than Alonso/MS. But once Koba retired it was all over.

[h_nair47]

but koba did retire and they had thelaptimes from both alonso and shumi to see that they were both gaining on him when he was held up by webber. So at that point the team had the option to bring him in quick and make it close with alonso and shumi or leave him out to lose more time .

He did not have enough a gap to come ahead if he pitted on the lap Koba retired. He needed around 24 secs..he never got that gap at any point. he was close to it then Webber came out in front of him and then he and Webber were still going faster than Alonso/MS because of Koba but then Koba retired.

[Lights]

Yup..it was good strategy. He needed couple more laps without Webber in front to make enough of a gap. Pitting him when Webber came out would still have out him below MS. Once Webber came out the only chance was Koba holding the Alonso/MS group up because Webber and him were still lapping faster than Alonso/MS. But once Koba retired it was all over.

Yeah, that was it really.

A third 'problem' was being stuck behind Barrichello in the first stint. That cost him like 10 seconds already and kinda made the leapfrog impossible. Without that, he would have probably kept up with Hamilton and he would have had a way better chance.

[FW09]

I was extremely angry when it happened because it really looked like they deliberately dropped Nico behind Schumi by keeping him out too long.

After that I thought they should have kept him out even longer because Webber's pace was improving. But they took him in at just the wrong moment.

Lap times:
http://www.fia.com/e...ce-analysis.pdf

[alfa1]

If you look closely at the times he didn't have enough to get out in front of the Schumi,

Have we got the numbers anywhere? I recall looking at the live timing just after Webber came back out, and there was a 28 second gap.
It Rosberg had pitted then, it would have been him in front for sure.
The team probably thought that Webber wouldnt hold him up, but Webber decided to ease his new tyres in gently for the first few laps.

[FW09]

Have we got the numbers anywhere? I recall looking at the live timing just after Webber came back out, and there was a 28 second gap.
It Rosberg had pitted then, it would have been him in front for sure.
The team probably thought that Webber wouldnt hold him up, but Webber decided to ease his new tyres in gently for the first few laps.

Here you have the time differences:
http://www.fia.com/e...ace-history.pdf

It was about 22 seconds at most and about 20 seconds when Nico finally pitted. 22 seconds might have been just enough.

[hmm]

Here are Rosbergs and Alonsos gaps to leader and gap between them on different laps. Also Rosbergs gap to Schumacher after Schumachers stop:

Rosberg  Alonso	  ROS/ALO	ROS/MSC
1.   8.948	36.123	   27.175			  <- the only point when Rosberg could have pitted to be in front of Alonso
6.   4.041	14.183	   10.142			  <- safety car in
7.   6.794	16.504		9.710
8.   8.643	19.900	   11.257
9.  10.244	23.676	   13.432
10. 11.782	26.857	   15.075			  <- Alonso overtakes DiGrassi
11. 13.664	29.758	   16.094			  <- Alonso overtakes Trulli
12. 15.288	29.731	   14.443		  
13. 17.095	32.243	   15.148
14. 18.619	34.034	   15.415			  <- Alonso overtakes Glock
15. 20.353	36.792	   16.439
16. 22.667	39.668	   17.001			  <- Alonso overtakes Kovalainen
17. 23.616	39.964	   16.348
18. 25.141	40.506	   15.365
19. 27.552	40.881	   13.329	 16.965   <- Schumacher pits
20. 26.054	40.154	   14.100	 21.408
21. 24.999	40.336	   15.337	 21.846
22. 24.647	41.368	   16.721	 21.817   <- Webber pits
23.  4.984	23.281	   18.297	 21.869
24.  0.721	18.860	   18.139	 20.881
25.  0.984	19.406	   18.422	 20.270
26.  1.153	20.205	   19.052	 20.283
27.  1.302	20.750	   19.448	 20.504   <- Rosberg pits

When Hamilton pitted on his gap to Alonso was 25.512s on the lap before. (Pitted on lap 17)

But Schumacher was just 15.910 in front of Alonso on the lap before pitting which obviously was not enough.

So, compared to Schumacher Rosberg might have made it by pitting during laps 20-23. But I think that Rosberg really was racing Alonso which he was still gaining even behind Webber.

On hindsight, Barrichello crashed on lap 31 so maybe by waiting 4 more laps he could have gained a lot. But that of course was something they couldn't know.

[FerrariF1Fan]

If you look closely at the times he didn't have enough to get out in front of the Schumi, Alonso Hamilton group so he needed a few more laps, Ross recognised that Koba was going to hold up the three drivers so it made sense to keep him out, as seen by the lap times he was doing and the gap he was increasing. Unfortunately for him Koba retired and let the group past, then all hope was lost. If Koba stayed out another couple of laps then Rosberg would have finished nicely ahead of that group.

Exactly. Good analysis, taking all factors into account.

[Fortymark]

I don´t think it was the right call to bring him in. Track position is everything
and Webber was building up a gap all the time to Vettel. Rosberg should have been out there
and waiting for the gap to be enough for him to pit. Letting him
pit and staying behind Lewis, Alonso and MS would give him zero chance of a podium or 4:th place.
It was worth the gamble imo. From lap 46 to 75 the track was clear without any SC.

[MikeTekRacing]

From lap 46 to 75 the track was clear without any SC.

we know this now..

[Fortymark]

we know this now..

What would you have done as a team boss? Would you rather have both your cars
running together in 6:th and 7:th place or would you rather split them and having 1
car in second position?

Everything can happen, especially in Monaco. Webber could have crashed out or DNF.
In such case Rosberg would have had a completly free track running P1, I know it´s slim chance
but it´s still there. We also know that RedBulls reliability hasn´t been the best.

[FW09]

What would you have done as a team boss? Would you rather have both your cars
running together in 6:th and 7:th place or would you rather split them and having 1
car in second position?

Everything can happen, especially in Monaco. Webber could have crashed out or DNF.
In such case Rosberg would have had a completly free track running P1, I know it´s slim chance
but it´s still there. We also know that RedBulls reliability hasn´t been the best.

He had soft tyres. I don't think he could have run very much longer than he did.

[Fortymark]

He had soft tyres. I don't think he could have run very much longer than he did.

I don´t think that would have been a problem as the tires did last much longer than expected.
No driver did more than 1 stop.

[FW09]

I don´t think that would have been a problem as the tires did last much longer than expected.
No driver did more than 1 stop.

No driver ran more than 28 laps with the supersofts (Nico and Heikki).

[Fortymark]

No driver ran more than 28 laps with the supersofts (Nico and Heikki).

If we look at Rosberg he hadn´t stressed his tires at all for the first 20 laps,
once he was in free air he became 2 seconds quicker.
The difference between the two types are small and Alonso did
the whole race on the harder ones without any problem at all.

If there were no mandatory pitstops I´m sure many would have tried the
whole distance on the same tires.

[SeanValen]

If there were no mandatory pitstops I´m sure many would have tried the
whole distance on the same tires.

Which is why there are mandatory pitstops,
No one for the likes of anyone can ideally say which tyres will last how long, that's the point. It's easier to criticse strategy after the race. What's the point of Schumacher spending practice time working on the harder compound if soft tyres is so blatently clear the better tyre to have on the day, if it was that clear, maybe you should work at Mercedes.

Rubens getting in front of both Merc drivers cost them.

I wish they left the rules alone. 1 compound of tyre for one tyre supplier would create less confusion. There's no ideal way of testing these tyres beforehand in testing as there is no testing, so you could be wasting practice time on thur on the wrong compounds or the right compounds, these rules are shooting in the dark. It's a mess. Monaco GP was a mess of tyres lasting too long and FIA bothcing the job of the safety car ending, the sport makes mistakes, drivers can't fight the car and the rules the same way every weekend as the rules invite these odd weekends to create complicated comparisons when things should be much simpler/

Edited by SeanValen, 17 May 2010 - 22:42.

[aditya-now]

I was extremely angry when it happened because it really looked like they deliberately dropped Nico behind Schumi by keeping him out too long.

After that I thought they should have kept him out even longer because Webber's pace was improving. But they took him in at just the wrong moment.

Lap times:
http://www.fia.com/e...ce-analysis.pdf

Had they just pitted him five laps earlier...

Talk about a team shooting itself into its own foot. How is ahead in the WDC standings?
The last time I have seen that was McLaren in 2007.

Edited by aditya-now, 17 May 2010 - 23:04.

[Messi10]

Which is why there are mandatory pitstops,
No one for the likes of anyone can ideally say which tyres will last how long, that's the point. It's easier to criticse strategy after the race. What's the point of Schumacher spending practice time working on the harder compound if soft tyres is so blatently clear the better tyre to have on the day, if it was that clear, maybe you should work at Mercedes.

Rubens getting in front of both Merc drivers cost them.

I wish they left the rules alone. 1 compound of tyre for one tyre supplier would create less confusion. There's no ideal way of testing these tyres beforehand in testing as there is no testing, so you could be wasting practice time on thur on the wrong compounds or the right compounds, these rules are shooting in the dark. It's a mess. Monaco GP was a mess of tyres lasting too long and FIA bothcing the job of the safety car ending, the sport makes mistakes, drivers can't fight the car and the rules the same way every weekend as the rules invite these odd weekends to create complicated comparisons when things should be much simpler/

I still don't understand about your point that it was a mistake that the tyres lasted for too long. Please clarify how you came up with this distorted view.

[Disgrace]

It would have worked aside from Kobayashi retiring and Webber pitting and coming out in front of him.

I was surprised at the time when he didn't pit immediately when Webber came out, to be honest.

Guess they expected Webber to be as lightning quick as he was earlier.

Was worth a punt and should have worked but for unforeseen and uncontrollable circumstances.

Unlucky.

[Lights]

I don´t think it was the right call to bring him in. Track position is everything
and Webber was building up a gap all the time to Vettel. Rosberg should have been out there
and waiting for the gap to be enough for him to pit. Letting him
pit and staying behind Lewis, Alonso and MS would give him zero chance of a podium or 4:th place.
It was worth the gamble imo. From lap 46 to 75 the track was clear without any SC.

Don't think his tyres would have lasted till lap 46.

He could've tried a bit longer though in the hope Webber would start pushing. But when Rosberg was behind him, Webber was taking it very easy, Vettel, Massa etc. were quicker so that screwed Rosberg.

[marchi-91]

Had they just pitted him five laps earlier...

Talk about a team shooting itself into its own foot. How is ahead in the WDC standings?
The last time I have seen that was McLaren in 2007.

Despite the fact that Nico was never in a position to come out ahead of Schumacher


If you muppets looked at the timing sheets, when Nico was setting those "blistering laps" he was only 3 tenths faster then Michael. Michael had him covered as did Alonso and Hamilton

[Muz Bee]

I'm a cautious Rosberg fan but I am careful about making bold claims of what the kid "might have done." Yes I think the comments until the one immediately prior (flamebait) have been interesting. I was hopeful of an Alonso jumping, and possibly even a Hamilton jumping section of the race. Clearly Nico had looked after the tyres pretty well as his fast laps were getting progressively faster until the point where Webber reemerged. Obviously RedBull pulled Mark in to stave off any challenge which would hold up his progress in clear air. Yes, I was watching the Koba situation also and my heart sank when he was shown coming through behind Michael.

If and buts are not worth points however if he had cleared Webber, or Webber was much further up the track, Nico would have jumped two positions. Then the Schumie fan club would still say Michael was faster in the race etc. It's impossible to present arguments that people like that will even read and evaluate probably - "a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest" (Paul Simon).

Coming back to the pit strategy, IF they had held their nerve and left Nico out for 2 more laps and IF Webber had lapped as he did on laps 29 and 30, and IF Nico had stayed on the same pace he would have been 2.5 seconds quicker than Michael over laps 29 and 30. Game over and very likely Alonso. Lots of ifs and buts.... However they could have ended up much worse of if they had gone 4 laps further as they would have joined the SC train. I'm not sure if lap 31 would have been OK, is there are cleverer analyst than me out there?

[baddog]

They did not bring him in at the point because at that point he would still have been behind (there was no moment he could have stopped and been ahead), so there would have been nothing to gain by doing so. He did not make up enough time in the laps he did have free to get in front and so it would have been pointless to modify his strategy to no good end.

It was better to stay where he was, ahead, for as long as possible in case events behind transpired to give him an advantage rather than stop and be behind them right away.

[kryziuotis]

They did not bring him in at the point because at that point he would still have been behind (there was no moment he could have stopped and been ahead), so there would have been nothing to gain by doing so. He did not make up enough time in the laps he did have free to get in front and so it would have been pointless to modify his strategy to no good end.

Thats not true. On lap 23 there was a 22 seconds gap between him and Schumacher. During the next laps he lost 1.6 sec behind Webber and on 27 lap the gap was only 20.4 seconds. Then he pitted and emerged exactly 1.6 seconds behind Schumacher. So by pitting on lap 23 he could have come in front of Schumacher.

[Augurk]

Thats not true. On lap 23 there was a 22 seconds gap between him and Schumacher. During the next laps he lost 1.6 sec behind Webber and on 27 lap the gap was only 20.4 seconds. Then he pitted and emerged exactly 1.6 seconds behind Schumacher. So by pitting on lap 23 he could have come in front of Schumacher.

As you say he lost 1.6 seconds in those laps. He emerged exactly 1.6 seconds behind Schumacher. Which means he was never in a position to have securely come out in front of Schumacher. That's why Merc let him stay out, in the hopes Webber would be pushing again and Ros could follow him, to increase the gap further for a safe pitstop.

[peterr]

Thanks for link to fia timing page. From those documents it seems that Rosberg lost at least 1,5 sec to Schumi when he was "stuck" behind Webber. Since Rosberg came out of his pit stop right behind Schumi, that might be just enough to get him, if he would pitted before Webber made a pit stop, but taking into account the bigger picture (thanks to your comments) I can understand the motives behind the tactics.

As a team they risked being cought out by safety car, that would really ruin his day, but on the other hand they could gain a place to Alonso, if Kobayashi wouldn't retire and if Webber wouldn't take it so easy in his first laps after his pit stop. When it was obvious that he will not gain more time behind Webber and when Kobayashi retired, it was obvious that only risk of the safety car was left, and no gains were possible, so they called him in. Fair enough.

[Muz Bee]

Thanks for link to fia timing page. From those documents it seems that Rosberg lost at least 1,5 sec to Schumi when he was "stuck" behind Webber. Since Rosberg came out of his pit stop right behind Schumi, that might be just enough to get him, if he would pitted before Webber made a pit stop, but taking into account the bigger picture (thanks to your comments) I can understand the motives behind the tactics.

As a team they risked being cought out by safety car, that would really ruin his day, but on the other hand they could gain a place to Alonso, if Kobayashi wouldn't retire and if Webber wouldn't take it so easy in his first laps after his pit stop. When it was obvious that he will not gain more time behind Webber and when Kobayashi retired, it was obvious that only risk of the safety car was left, and no gains were possible, so they called him in. Fair enough.

Spot on. Key events before that were Barra holding the Mercs up, certainly by more than 1.0 second per lap until he and Michael pitted on Lap 19. Further up the road Hamilton was not much faster but without Rubens would have had two Mercs parked on his rear. The point is Rubens contributed to wrecking Nico's (and Michael's) race. Of course Michael's pitstop would have been timed later had they been further up the road and not coming under the Alonso threat so hard to go further on that theory. As we know, at Monaco more than eny other place, track position is everything (almost).

The best argument for keeping Nico out behind Webber a lap or two longer is the supposition that he (Mark) was playing in his tyres and would quickly come up to speed. Of course for an awkward 3 laps his times were slower than Michael's who got on the pace on his first flying lap on the new tyres. By comparison Mark took 5 laps to get on the pace! However once he was on the pace (the lap after Nico pitted) he was more than a second quicker again. No luck really.

[pgj]

Mchael had the jump on Nico by having first pit-stop call. He was playing catch up after that. I thought that it was quite inventive to try and give something different a try. I agree that it might have worked if Koba had stayed in the race for another lap or two. Nico lost the advantage at the start of the race.