6 replies to this topic

[harsha]

The driver who wins the first race has been clinching the WDC title for the past 4 yrs.

2006 - Fernando Alonso - Wins 1st race and title
2007 - Kimi Raikkonen - Wins 1st race and title
2008 - Lewis Hamilton - Wins 1st race and title
2009 - Jenson Button - Wins 1st race and title
2010 - Fernando Alonso - Wins 1st and title???

All indications are that Alonso will most probably win the championship where he is standing now. Have you guys also thought about this statistic. Its funny how I thought about this when Fernando won in Bahrain and now after nearly 8 months.. it indeed looks like he will clinch the title.

[lustigson]

Of the past 60 World Championships, 29 have NOT been won by the driver who took the chequered flag at the first Grand Prix. However, in the last 20 seasons, only 4 times did the driver who won the first GP NOT take the WDC: 1997, '99, 2003, '05.

Edit: here's the list of WDCs and 1st GP winners:

1950  Farina	  Farina
1951  Fangio	  Fangio
1952  Ascari	  Taruffi
1953  Ascari	  Ascari
1954  Fangio	  Fangio
1955  Fangio	  Fangio
1956  Fangio	  Musso + Fangio
1957  Fangio	  Fangio
1958  Hawthorn	Moss
1959  Brabham	 Brabham
1960  Brabham	 McLaren
1961  P. Hill	 Moss
1962  G. Hill	 G. Hill
1963  Clark	   G. Hill
1964  Surtees	 G. Hill
1965  Clark	   Clark
1966  Brabham	 Stewart
1967  Hulme	   P. Rodriguez
1968  G. Hill	 Clark
1969  Stewart	 Stewart
1970  Rindt	   Brabham
1971  Stewart	 Andretti
1972  Fittipaldi  Stewart
1973  Stewart	 Fittipaldi
1974  Fittipaldi  Hulme
1975  Lauda	   Fittipaldi
1976  Hunt		Lauda
1977  Lauda	   Scheckter
1978  Andretti	Andretti
1979  Scheckter   Lafitte
1980  Jones	   Jones
1981  Piquet	  Jones
1982  Rosberg	 Prost
1983  Piquet	  Piquet
1984  Lauda	   Prost
1985  Prost	   Prost
1986  Prost	   Piquet
1987  Piquet	  Prost
1988  Senna	   Prost
1989  Prost	   Mansell
1990  Senna	   Senna
1991  Senna	   Senna
1992  Mansell	 Mansell
1993  Prost	   Prost
1994  Schumacher  Schumacher
1995  Schumacher  Schumacher
1996  D. Hill	 D. Hill
1997  Villeneuve  Coulthard
1998  Häkkinen	Häkkinen
1999  Häkkinen	Irvine
2000  Schumacher  Schumacher
2001  Schumacher  Schumacher
2002  Schumacher  Schumacher
2003  Schumacher  Coulthard
2004  Schumacher  Schumacher
2005  Alonso	  Fisichella
2006  Alonso	  Alonso
2007  Räikkönen   Räikkönen
2008  Hamilton	Hamilton
2009  Button	  Button
2010  ?		   Alonso

Edited by lustigson, 28 October 2010 - 07:21.

[pRy]

Isn't there a similar rule about "He who wins Monaco wins the title" tho?

[ViMaMo]

I thought it was Hungary or Spain ??

[Captain Tightpants]

I thought it was Hungary or Spain ??

Well, considering Webber won both of those, too, I don't think it's going to be much of a problem. As mcuh as I don't want him to win, though, I expect Alonso will take his third title. And I'm seriously hoping he can win by more than seven points.

[DarthRonzo]

The driver who wins the first race has been clinching the WDC title for the past 4 yrs.

2006 - Fernando Alonso - Wins 1st race and title
2007 - Kimi Raikkonen - Wins 1st race and title
2008 - Lewis Hamilton - Wins 1st race and title
2009 - Jenson Button - Wins 1st race and title
2010 - Fernando Alonso - Wins 1st and title???

All indications are that Alonso will most probably win the championship where he is standing now. Have you guys also thought about this statistic. Its funny how I thought about this when Fernando won in Bahrain and now after nearly 8 months.. it indeed looks like he will clinch the title.

Well observed !

However there is a logic that might be broken this year... maybe, I remark.

From 2006-2009 the pattern seems to be the best car in the begin of the year will collect lots of points early in the championship and ultimatelly clinch WDC.

But in 2010 RedBull was the best car in Bahrein and Vettel was going to win it, but had reliability problems, just like in the last race.
Alonso inherited the victory, but soon Ferrari detected engine problems and the team recovered in the midle of the championship, after Canada only.

So 2010 seems to be a bit different, IMO.

[boldhakka]

Well observed !

However there is a logic that might be broken this year... maybe, I remark.

From 2006-2009 the pattern seems to be the best car in the begin of the year will collect lots of points early in the championship and ultimatelly clinch WDC.

But in 2010 RedBull was the best car in Bahrein and Vettel was going to win it, but had reliability problems, just like in the last race.
Alonso inherited the victory, but soon Ferrari detected engine problems and the team recovered in the midle of the championship, after Canada only.

So 2010 seems to be a bit different, IMO.

You make a good point, but the definition of "best car" does and will always continue to include reliability. So the logic stands - or is at least not blatantly wrong.