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[Kvothe]

Turkey GP 2011

Practice 1 6th May 08:00 BST/07:00 GMT

Practice 2 6th May 12:00 BST/ 11:00 GMT

Practice 3 7th May 09:00 BST/80:00 GMT

Qualifying: 7th May 11:00 BST/10:00 GMT

Race: 8th May 13:00 BST/ 12:00 GMT





Circuit Length: 5.338 km
Race Distance: 309.396 km
Number of Laps: 58
Full Throttle: 62%
Brake Wear: Medium
Compounds: -
Downforce Level: Medium 6/10
Tyre Usage: Medium/Hard
Average Speed: 220kph (137mph)

Istanbul Weather (according to the BBC)
Friday: Light rain expected, 11ºC Max
Saturday: Sunny 14ºC Max
Sunday: Sunny 12ºC Max

DRS Zone.
The DRS activation zone has been confirmed to be from turn 11 to turn 12. The detection zone will be in the braking point of turn 9.

Pirelli:
With the tyres a lot less durable then last year, and the new hard tyre only arriving in Spain, the focus for the teams will definitely be tyre conservation and strategy; a failure in either will result in a bad race.

Teams:

Red Bull: After two dominant wins in Australia and Malaysis and two podium positions in China, the pressure will be on Red Bull to not only maintain their car advantage, but also the consistency, and reliability that alluded them this time last year. While not a happy hunting ground for the team, due to the events of last year, their downforce advantage meant they were the only team able to go flat around turn 8, and qualified on pole. All the evidence points to them having the same advantage this year, albeit with softer tyres. With some updates, and the possibility of KERS working properly, it will be upto the other teams to show they can be beat. Vettel will hope to make it 3 wins out of 4 while Webber will hope for the disappearence of the reliability gremlins that have dogged him, and a continuance in the upward trend of his finishing positions.

McLaren: Showing that Red Bull and Vettel can be beat this year, they go to Istanbul off the back of a win in China, and a 1-2 last year. While it was arguably their pressure this time last year that resulted in their victory, this year with 'small' aerodynamic refinements and talk of a more elaborate engine mapping, they will be hoping to challenge Red Bull on equal terms, especially in qualifying. This is F1 however and no team ever stands still. Lewis will be hoping for back to back wins, while Jenson will undoubtedly be aiming for his first win of the season.

Ferrari: A lack of correlation between the data from the wind tunnel and that on track, and a conservative design process (admitted by the team) relative to other teams has meant a less then strong start to the season, although the car has been strong enough to challenge for podiums. Rumoured to have sorted the problem, and bringing updates to the circuit in the form of a new front and rear wing, there is a hope that this will rejuvenate their season, and get them challenging for wins. Alonso will hope to get a better start to reward his race pace, and Massa will be hoping to shine at a track which he has won more times then any other competitorr.

Renault: Two podiums in the first two races, means that Renault will be hoping to build on a successful start to the season. They will undoubtedly be trying to close the gap to both McLaren and Red Bull whilst not being overtaken by either Ferrari or Mercedes, and with the great starts they have had will no doubt be attempting to qualify as far up the field as possible. With good straightline speed, they will be hoping to use this to their advantage during the race. Petrov will be aiming for another podium, while Quick Nick will want that tantalising win that always seems to be out of reach.

Mercedes: With improved form in China, and a genuine chance to win the race, Merecedes will be looking to have sorted out their cooling issues and DRS problems that have beset them particularly in the first two races. With talk of consolidating performance as opposed to improving it they will be trusting strategy and good qualifying to once again put them in the mix. Nico Rosberg will undoubtedly wish for a better fuel strategy, and a good race performance, while Michael will want to build on his excellant starts and return to form he showed in China.


Force India: A solid start with drivers in the points for the first two races, they will be hoping to finish once again within the top 10. With talk of promising upgrades, and improved race pace, they will be hoping to make inroads into the top teams whilst attempting tp become the most competative of the mid-field teams. Sutil will pray for none of the bad luck he has experienced in qualifying this year, including spinning, gearbox problems, and a manic q2 session in China, and will hope to beat his teamate. Di resta will want to continue beating his more experienced teamate and to continue a promisting start to his career.

BMW Sauber: With excellant tyre management the Sauber team will be hoping their good form continues. Whilst disqualified from the oz gp on a rear wing technicality it is no doubt that this year is a far cry from last years dismal start, and will hope their pace and reliability continues. With some aerodynamic and mechanical updates the sauber team will be hoping to build on a good season. Kobayashi will once again be hoping to finsih in the top 10 and will be eyeing further up should any of the top teams fail on strategy or tyre management. Perez will also hope he can regain momentum of a great start after a dnf in Malaysia, and penalties for collisions with other cars in China.

Torro Rosso: Whilst the team has not had the best of starts, and after a loose tyre moment in China, they will want things to go smoothly. Yet to score a point they will be looking to take the fight to both Sauber and Force India,
whilst fending off a Williams that could improve at any time. Alguesuari, will hope for a better pit stop then in China, and will be looking to score his first point of the season. Buemi will be wanting to show that he deserves a seat at the team, with Ricciardo hovering in the backgroung, and a team known for changing drivers mid season.

Williams: With 3 disappointing races, Williams are now concentrating on the future. Having floated their company on the stock exchange, they are also now in the process of restructuring their staff, with the near departure of Michaels and the appointment if Couglan. With new updates planned they will be hoping to claw back the deficit to the other teams, and will be looking to keep ahead of lotus. Barichello will be aiming to score his his first point of the season. Whilst Maldanado will want to have a better race then he had in China.

Lotus: Having taken their first midfield team scalp legitamately, you would forgive Lotus if they were on cloud nine, but with more upgrades on the way, and talk of their previous performance being scuppered with cold tyres, they will be hoping to ensure that China was not a one off but instead the beginning of a trend. With the buying of Caternham, their future now looks more secure and will be less dependant on the court decision to go their way. Heikki will want to continue beating Trulli, and to be up in the midfield. Trulli will want the power steering problems he has been dealt with to be fixed, and to be able to put the car up with Heikki.

Virgin: With more updates they will be hoping to be the second team to leave the group B division. Without either the pace of Lotus, or the character of HRT they will be hoping for strong races from their drivers to prevent them from becoming entirely invisible. Glock dissapointed with the team's performance so far will hope that the upgrades will make a difference. D'ambrosio has as of yet been unable to shine, and will be hoping to have no more bad races, if only to prevent more bad puns from Brundle.

HRT: With gradually improving performance and their first sponser they they aim to close the gap to Virgin. In the first European races they aim to be bringing their first ever non-mirror related upgrades, which not only affirms their commitment to F1 but is a positive sign of the hardwork of an under budget and understaffed team. Liuzzi will want to see some improvement in performance whilst Karthikayen will be aiming to beat him.


Who has the best chance of winning? Why?

How decisive will the strategy calls be?

Will this be F1's first wet race?

Where will the cars be relative to each other?

Edited by Kvothe, 04 May 2011 - 21:49.

[Dunder]

Nice summary!

Go Macca boys!

Despite all the talk of upgrades, I would expect to see a similar picture to the previous couple of races. Red Bull with a pace advantage but with McLaren holding on to their coat tails.
In race conditions relative pace of all the cars will concertina, tyre management and strategy will probably decide the outcome.

[ed24f1]

As of Monday, rain was predicted for Friday and Saturday, but possibly not affecting qualifying and the race as much as practice.
http://live.autospor...tary.php/id/337

Personally, it would be nice to see Massa win. He's obviously got some good memories at the track, and I think it could be another turning point in his career if he can win this weekend.

Last year, this was one of the few tracks where Felipe had a edge over Fernando throughout the weekend, so it will be fascinating to follow their battle this weekend.

[jonnoj]

This could be the race when all of the front runners discover they've used all of their tyres with 20 laps to go. Let's see Pirelli talk themselves out of that one.

Edited by jonnoj, 03 May 2011 - 23:55.

[vitafit]

Weathers looking interesting! Looks cold/wet for this weekend. BBC reporting some hail mid day on saturday as well! Heavy rain on Sunday.

[ashnathan]

I have always wanted to see a wet race in turkey it would be a great venue for a wet race!

[rodlamas]

If RBR is not able to use KERS they will suffer. During the race, they will simply not be able to use their DF advantage during turn 8, so although I expect Vettel to take the pole, Hamilton is the most likely winner. Don't think Ferrari will be up to the job of making it to the podium, they will be fighting with Mercedes and Reanult.

[SpeedRacer`]

As of Monday, rain was predicted for Friday and Saturday, but possibly not affecting qualifying and the race as much as practice.
http://live.autospor...tary.php/id/337

Personally, it would be nice to see Massa win. He's obviously got some good memories at the track, and I think it could be another turning point in his career if he can win this weekend.

Last year, this was one of the few tracks where Felipe had a edge over Fernando throughout the weekend, so it will be fascinating to follow their battle this weekend.

That's changed - Saturday looks dry now for all running with a very small chance of rain, Sunday no chance at all.

[Desdirodeabike]

A heck of a post Kvothe
I actually hope for a dry race to be able to better see who have made improvements and who have not. My only worry is that overtaking will be too easy. The long run down to turn 12 was one of the best for overtaking even before DRS.
If Red Bull got their KERS running, I believe it will be their race to lose for sure.

I predict that Ferrari have made some progress but not enough to catch the top 2. With Turkey being arguably Massas fav track it would be fun to see him beating Alonso yet again.

[bauss]

none of the rain predictions have come through so far, not expecting rain.

But the low temperatures will be interesting, its always been pretty hot previously in Turkey right?

According to F1.com, we will have pre-season testing temperatures...

Maybe good news for Red Bull, but we will see... I dont think those temps favor Pirelli tires also, might end up a 4 stop race

[Owen]

Big question for me (for this race is); can an updated Ferrari and/or Mercedes join McLaren and Red Bull at the front?

[Group B]

Big question for me (for this race is); can an updated Ferrari and/or Mercedes join McLaren and Red Bull at the front?

Well, according to Rosberg Merc's Turkey upgrades have brought them a full second in the simulator. Question is, will they work for real?

[ed24f1]

But the low temperatures will be interesting, its always been pretty hot previously in Turkey right?

In 2008 it was 17 degrees on race day, but every other year has been in the 28-35 range.

Also, we saw in Melbourne that Ferrari and Mercedes struggled in colder than expected temperatures, so it will be interesting to see if this was a one-off or not.

[Atreiu]

I expect Red Bull to get it all right for once and go home with a 1-2. Now, will either of its pilots attack the other if he's running second but much faster in the final stint? Or any other stint, for the sake of 2010 reloaded.

[Atreiu]

I'm dying to see someone on well used tyres activating the DRS right before turn 11.

[Owen]

Well, according to Rosberg Merc's Turkey upgrades have brought them a full second in the simulator. Question is, will they work for real?

Surely they will be - at the very least - nearer the front.

[flyer121]

So a Vettel walkover if KERS holds up ?? Or Maccs repeat the development curve & the car is in league with RB7..
What do you guys think?

[Atreiu]

Reb Bull walkover for once.

[Andy865]

Awesome post Kvothe!

But i did spot a little woopsie..... BMW Sauber?

[Wingcommander]

Great OP ! Lotus are bringing their updates to Spain, so I don't expect them to improve in Turkey. They've also had problems in cold temperatures. At Virgin Glock will have a heavily revised car, and it will be intresting to see how it works. d'Ambrosio still has the old car, so he will be acting as a yardstick. HRT also have an updated car. Can they beat the Virgins?

Edited by Wingcommander, 04 May 2011 - 13:54.

[Concorde]

I expect Red Bull walking this one and maybe Ferrari and Mercedes mixing it with the Mclarens.

[roadie]

The weather looks worse than it's going to be in the UK!

I think there are going to be interesting battles through the field with all the upgrades various teams are planning. Can HRT and Virgin progress? Will Williams' off track distractions affect them at all, and how will their new wings affect the car's performance? Will the spread at the top of the grid tighten?

Should be a great qualifying/GP.

[argiriano]

I think Renault will be pretty strong here, with their balanced car - fast trough corners and fastest on the long straights. But I think RBR will be far ahead, followed by McLaren. Mercedes and Ferrari have to prove their upgrades works, even though I don`t find them ahead of the Renaults here.

Most important thing will be tire strategy, and I think that Turkey may bring the biggest tire drama to date on a race day... so the win is still wide open it may be Nico or Felipe, not just the usual suspects.

[joshb]

I'm hoping for a fast dry race, as my local footy team have a big match at 3pm!
But in all seriousness, I think in the dry Red Bull should have enough but it only takes an inspired strategy call or a driver driving out of his skin or a KERS failure for the red bulls and the gap is bridged.
Then if it rains its anyones... well almost

[BullHead]

I'll be checking out how McLaren do throughout the buildup. I don't see any walkover happening here....

[SchumiP1]

Expecting Mercedes on the podium.

[slmk]

Turkey is not an aero track (apart from T8) and Turn 8 might be tyre limited.

[F.M.]

Red Bull:

34 Points, 1 DNF, 2 Poles, 3 Podiums, but no wins ..yet

[hotstickyslick]

Turkey is not an aero track (apart from T8) and Turn 8 might be tyre limited.

Of course it is. The best cars have won there 5/6 times with last year being the exception.

[korzeniow]

Well, according to Rosberg Merc's Turkey upgrades have brought them a full second in the simulator. Question is, will they work for real?

No fairy tales, sorry

[RaceForFun]

Nice Preview, but I'm pretty sure the times you posted are BST not GMT, one hour difference can mean missing the qualifying !! You don't want that, I'm sure

Edited by RaceForFun, 04 May 2011 - 21:46.

[Kvothe]

Thanks for the compliments everyone

@ Andy, yeah i got halfway through, the teams got extremely bored, and rushed it. It will remain as a monument of my apathy.

@RaceforFun, thanks for that and i've edited accordingly for both.... it might've got real awkward in this thread.

Helmut marko says they have Kers working, but while it will help with Qualifying, and during the race (in regards to defending/overtaking)
The biggest factor will be the tyres. Since they will need to be looked after, even if Red Bull are ahead in qualifying as I expect they will be,
their race pace for the most part will be limited by the tyres, and so providing nothing goes wrong we are in for a good race.

I also doubt that we will see differing tyre strategies, i think China all taught the teams a lesson, and I think they will all follow each other even into tyre oblivion.

I would actually like it to rain at Instanbul. rain is a great leveller which is always good for assessing the rookies, but if this is the last Turkish GP, then I would love to see it
go out with a bang.

I think Mercedes are a possible dark horse they qualifed 5th ad 6th last year, and have an excellant straightline speed. Also the last time Mercedes spoke about an upgrade
bringing more time was in Barcelona testing, and they certainly delivered, so it will be interesting to see their performance.. Also more importantly they have a good driver lineup, which for me gives them the edge over the Lotus Renaults, who seem unable to both have brilliant race weekends at the same time, but can manage every other variation.

[Desdirodeabike]

I think Mercedes are a possible dark horse they qualifed 5th ad 6th last year, and have an excellant straightline speed. Also the last time Mercedes spoke about an upgrade
bringing more time was in Barcelona testing, and they certainly delivered, so it will be interesting to see their performance.. Also more importantly they have a good driver lineup, which for me gives them the edge over the Lotus Renaults, who seem unable to both have brilliant race weekends at the same time, but can manage every other variation.

Yeah, I would love to see Mercedes up there. There are the rumors of a one second improvement in the windtunnel on the Merc car. If that is true and it also correlates on the track then I would love to see Rosberg possibly take his first win.

From the lessons learned in China, I guess we will a three stopper for pretty much everyone. Or does some teams/drivers perhaps even need a 4th stop?

[Kvothe]

Yeah, I would love to see Mercedes up there. There are the rumors of a one second improvement in the windtunnel on the Merc car. If that is true and it also correlates on the track then I would love to see Rosberg possibly take his first win.

From the lessons learned in China, I guess we will a three stopper for pretty much everyone. Or does some teams/drivers perhaps even need a 4th stop?

Yeah I like Nico as a racing driver, and I wouldn't mind too much if he won it. For me he still has to cross that psychological threshold, for me to validate my belief in him being a top class driver.

Three stopper seems to be on the cards, but it could vary. At first I thought that GP2 event being held would help the track rubber in, thus complicating tyre strategy but it turns out this year they are also using Pirelli
tyres so its best to just accept that there will jyst be more marbles on track. I think a four stopper will only be viable if degradation was that bad, it would be worth losing another 20 seconds in the piits, in the
comfortable knowledge you could make up the ground and pass easily. While on paper it may be a good strategy it would involve commitment (pitting earlier) from the start, and would require extremely aggressive
driving and pushing for each and every lap, and there is a chance you could run out of laps. Nevertheless it would be very exciting.


Edit: My post has messed up on it's own accord, its supposed to be one complete paragraph

Edited by Kvothe, 04 May 2011 - 22:45.

[Desdirodeabike]

Yeah I like Nico as a racing driver, and I wouldn't mind too much if he won it. For me he still has to cross that psychological threshold, for me to validate my belief in him being a top class driver.

Three stopper seems to be on the cards, but it could vary. At first I thought that GP2 event being held would help the track rubber in, thus complicating tyre strategy but it turns out this year they are also using Pirelli
tyres so its best to just accept that there will jyst be more marbles on track. I think a four stopper will only be viable if degradation was that bad, it would be worth losing another 20 seconds in the piits, in the
comfortable knowledge you could make up the ground and pass easily. While on paper it may be a good strategy it would involve commitment (pitting earlier) from the start, and would require extremely aggressive
driving and pushing for each and every lap, and there is a chance you could run out of laps. Nevertheless it would be very exciting.

Cheers. Cant wait for practice now!

[Dunder]

Yeah, I would love to see Mercedes up there. There are the rumors of a one second improvement in the windtunnel on the Merc car. If that is true and it also correlates on the track then I would love to see Rosberg possibly take his first win.

From the lessons learned in China, I guess we will a three stopper for pretty much everyone. Or does some teams/drivers perhaps even need a 4th stop?

Degradation rates will only start to reveal themselves during FP2.
The teams (and Pirelli) have been surprised at every race so far (in both directions) so I wouldn't put a great deal of faith in what has been said so far.

At full speed T8 accounts for something like 50% of the total energy imparted on the front right tyre during a lap, so a lot will obviously depend on the cost/benefit of easing off through there. The general abrasion levels of the surfaces are what have led to the misjudgements to date, however.

[slmk]

Of course it is. The best cars have won there 5/6 times with last year being the exception.

Not as much as Malaysia, Suzuka or Silverstone.

McLaren was faster in S1 and S3 last year despite being miles behind in terms of aero efficiency.

EDIT: But you're right that the best car usually wins there. You need a good package of aero efficiency, mechanical grip and top speed.

Edited by slmk, 05 May 2011 - 00:02.

[hotstickyslick]

Not as much as Malaysia, Suzuka or Silverstone.

McLaren was faster in S1 and S3 last year despite being miles behind in terms of aero efficiency.

EDIT: But you're right that the best car usually wins there. You need a good package of aero efficiency, mechanical grip and top speed.

They weren't miles behind, in fact I would say they had the best chassis for straight line speed looking at Spa.


If you look at each Turkish GP from '05 and '07-'09 that the cars that won at Istanbul also won at Barcelona - the test bench for aerodynamics and the main reason it's used in testing so much. I think aero still plays a bigger role than anything else at Turkey

[Hole]

Three weeks... Finally again at it damn

[H2H]

I hope of course that RBR wins that GP, especially after last year. As already written it is a track in which usually the strongest cars of the season wins, but with the big tyre question mark this is yet to be seen.

[rolf123]

This track is not good for Lewis. I predict he will need 4 stops and the rest of the field 3. He could luck in with this though, in the same way he did when he crashed into the wall at Monaco.

Are cars allowed to use the run-off on the outside of T8 on every lap? Could this be advantageous for preserving rubber despite it being the longer way around the circuit?

I wonder if some drivers will maintain a very low speed through there relative to their competitors? We could see some rear-ending possibly.

[MoP]

Are cars allowed to use the run-off on the outside of T8 on every lap? Could this be advantageous for preserving rubber despite it being the longer way around the circuit?

As far as i remember the run off area has asphalt especially designed to slow the cars down, so its very abrasive. I recall someone having to go wide there a couple of years ago and then going into a slight spin, and the tire looked like shredded apart....

[roadie]

Looks wet in the shots in the Turkish Preview gallery...

[wonk123]

I can see a RBR walk over, with the DRS timing point being at turn 9, I think they will pull out a second over the sector with turn 8 in it, so no one behind will be able to to use DRS on them.

[flyer121]

I can see a RBR walk over, with the DRS timing point being at turn 9, I think they will pull out a second over the sector with turn 8 in it, so no one behind will be able to to use DRS on them.

Its not as simple.

See T8 is there and RBR will have an advantage whether or not the DRS line was T9. Even if they get overtaken if DRS was elsewhere, they will always make it up in T8 and be close to DRS them back.

What matters is overall lap time and how tyres cope with those times.

But if they have KERS issues , then they are in a soup.

[Dunder]

I can see a RBR walk over, with the DRS timing point being at turn 9, I think they will pull out a second over the sector with turn 8 in it, so no one behind will be able to to use DRS on them.

LOL.

[hulmerist]

This track is not good for Lewis. I predict he will need 4 stops and the rest of the field 3. He could luck in with this though, in the same way he did when he crashed into the wall at Monaco.

Are cars allowed to use the run-off on the outside of T8 on every lap? Could this be advantageous for preserving rubber despite it being the longer way around the circuit?

I wonder if some drivers will maintain a very low speed through there relative to their competitors? We could see some rear-ending possibly.

are you even saying these words? seriously? in your mind it was a good idea to suggest a car running wide into dirt every lap as a way to preserve tyres?

[bauss]

I can see a RBR walk over, with the DRS timing point being at turn 9, I think they will pull out a second over the sector with turn 8 in it, so no one behind will be able to to use DRS on them.

lol they didnt have a second last year, doubt they'd have this year...will be more like half a second...maybe less, wont be more than that during the race...most likely lower. Also, if they find themselves behind another car, that downforce advantage will be diminished due to dirty air through turn 8.

Nevertheless, most likely to win cos they got the quickest car...but bets are truly off if it decides to rain.

[hotstickyslick]

This track is not good for Lewis. I predict he will need 4 stops and the rest of the field 3. He could luck in with this though, in the same way he did when he crashed into the wall at Monaco.

You're not being serious?

[Mastah]

New tyre markings:

http://yfrog.com/h81yalwj

Are cars allowed to use the run-off on the outside of T8 on every lap? Could this be advantageous for preserving rubber despite it being the longer way around the circuit?