Originally posted by WACKO
Just neither team is willing to suit a driver with a one-year deal for 2009. Kubica wants to sign for BMW for 09 only; it will depend on whether BMW will be willing to accept that. They have to work out their long term plan. A driver and a team must gel together and it usually takes time, at least half a season for it to be ready for the championship unless the car is exceptional. BMW does not want to rely on Kubica and then see him leave for Ferrari, whilst they know that Heidfeld is not their long term future. The same is the case for Alonso. It's a waste of effort to only have him onboard for 2009. Sponsors don't like it and the engineers don't like it since they're not certain what to do for the following year.
I don't think Alonso to BMW for 1 year is on anybody's radar at all. I'd say it all boils down to:
1) Either Fred has (or will by Sep. 14th) a Ferrari seat for 2010. Signed, and under 7 locks. In that scenario, he'll likely stay one more year at Renault, save if he doesn't see any progress at all and Ross Brawn can tempt him to give Honda a shot. Frankly, any other scenario seems unrealistic.
2) Fred doesn't get a guaranteed, 2010 seat with Ferrari. Then all bets are off, but a 3 year deal to BMW makes lots of sense. For BMW too, as Kubica doesn't seem too keen on signing more than 1 year and Heidfield's season hasn't set the world on fire. After BMW, I'd say Honda is the 2nd best option and the only 2nd division team with realistic chances of improving and become a long term contender (money, Ross Brawn, the Senna connection... heck, Honda at least has a glorious past... Toyota and Red Bull don't... and I think Toyota won't sink money into F1 forever while their sales plummet, they haven't even been 10 years in F1 so far).
Somehow, despite all the apparent love, I don't believe Fred sees Renault as a good long term prospect, just a stop-gag. They
had potential years ago, but people forget that he
left the team in it's prime because he didn't trust on Reanult's commitment to F1. And with the global crisis firing on 6-cylinders right now, I don't get why people expect things are going to improve for the F1 Team. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see Gosh pulling the plug or at least, selling the team and become just an engine provider once engines can be developed again.