I really wouldn't want to be in shoes of head of Mclaren aero department. The 2009 interim wings were bad enough to mount the 2008 wing on the car which obviously is not what you want to have while gathering data to design the final 2009 wing. It doesn't mean the wing itself was screwed up, it quite possible it was a good designed but based on wrong data (which makes the situation even worse). Now you have cross fingers that new data will be relevant and that the new wing+diff combination won't hinder the car performance (and anything less than going on podiums from first gp will be seen as a disappointment). At the same time all the other rivals are probably fine tunings the setups and gathering data (on track) for the final pre-season update. Thinking about it, Mclaren will have show their true pace on the final tests (at least on the long runs): they simply have to work on setups which they weren't able to do properly so far. Another issue: quite a lot of people say that rear tyre wear will be a key for race performance. It's quite sensible to guess that Mclaren are well behind other teams in knowledge about that. They're well in head in knowledge about how tires behave with a 2008 wing, but how much of use this knowledge is? More I think about, there is more and more data Mclaren have to carefully look at and think about transferring it to a full 2009 spec car. That sounds like they'll rely a lot on CFD models and tunnel tests - most likely reasons why they're forced to run the 2008 wing in the first place.


My crystal ball prediction: Mclaren will be quite a bit behind fastest teams during the opening races.

All that through speculative hypothesyzing.
Here is my prediction, Mclaren will leave a few people scratching heads towards the end of Barca test because of predictions like yours my friend!

The difference bet J Allen and some people is that he covered his ass - he was sure Mclaren would get over the "issue" facing them.

I'm still not convinced it's a rear wing issue, the other teams have been running with fairly basic rearwings without problems. Ferrari has used the same wing for Mugello, Bahrain and Jerez tests for example and it's none too complex. The only thing about the rearwing is that the slots are extremely thin on the endplate but that shouldn't be too difficult to modify.

If there is a problem it's more likely to be around the gearbox, beamwing, suspension, rear vent area.

Nothing works in isolation, they could have the same rear wing as Ferrari, but if the airflow from the rest of the car hits it quite differently the rear wing is going to have to work differently too.

I take it you don't mean that McLaren actually take any notice of BB predictions.

Just wondering why it's the end of the Barca test you're predicting we'll see it?

And the Ducalndri was a backmaker bike? The difference on the Ducati MotoGP team was much more pronounced but with the half-reasonable customer Honda bikes in motogp Melandri was already a proven front runner, making it puzzling. Only as Kovalainen drove for (or caused Renault to be - unclear) midfield team it's not so clear as with Melandri.

You only have to look that Kimi qualifying some races in P5 and the like, that even "champion" drivers can do slower lap times with the same car for various complicated set-up related reasons.

Silly me, I read it as towards the end of Barca.

True but I can't see how they'd get a rear wing so wrong as to cause cronic downforce problems particularly as other teams have just put stop-gap shortened versions of their 08 profiles, also considering McLaren's engineering resources.

But F1 rear wings are incredibly steep, they almost certainly are detached surely?

In conventional linearised model of wings stall angle is independent of speed.

What??

er? you read it right

Well lets hope Femi is correct... if not, I think 50 strokes of Max's best is in order!

Yes OK, but why not tomorrow? I was thinking they'd have been updating the car during the break between tests.

Sorry, just my second childhood attempt at sarcasm without insult.

I am hoping that we see a vast improvement tomorrow too.

I wander if McMerc are trying to be uber agressive with their aero?

If it goes right maybe it's amazeing and gives them an edge.
If It goes wrong (which it's looking like it has) it' stalls and goes to crap.

Hey, I said it was a crystal ball prediction myself. We can say reasonable things like 'it's testing' 'we have next to no data' etc but it's fun to say something like that once in a while, just for the kicks, at the price of possibly looking like an idiot in 3 weeks from now.

Logically they'd test the full Melbourne/Malaysia/Bahrain high speed aero at Barca using all the time available, maybe the Monaco/Hungary package later or at Jerez, so why wait? Does Femi know something and if so WHAT ????

Ah!, that we will have to wait to find out, until then we will have to rely on our crystal balls.

Well J-Raid was supposed to have a contact near to Pedro who said there was trouble.
James Allen is speculating theirs something amiss, surly he'd have a few contacts
Toyota Aero boss thinks there slow

Vs

Killfile insider (dunno which team) who thinks its impossible to tell
Andy, no comment really either way..

and Femi, whos contact is...?

Well ATM_Andy has said the 08 wing is normal and Killfile has said the flow-vis is normal. Take those items out of the equation and flag the others as hearsay, what have we got? Our own fertile imaginations

And a new diffuser, vital to everything, coming tomorrow (we hope ).

Killfile is wrong (again), it is unusual for teams to be using Flow Vis at this stage. It was pointed out as unusual when Renault were using it last month.

And how the 08 wing can be considered "normal" when McLaren are the only team still using it, I really cannot fathom.

I don't know why you're anxious to put down Killfile's posts but I have found them 100% credible and a great asset to the forum. There is a history of insiders being driven away from here by pointless hostilty, so make your case with evidence in a civil way, or shut up .

By 'normal' I mean not part of a fault. It's true that Mac are doing things that other teams aren't, but they fit with a more advanced virtual development process, for example if the 4-element front wing is for Monaco and the flow-vis is to validate the design processes. The 08 wing only make sense if there's an updated diffuser in the wings.

btw, is there some kind of live timing at Barca this year - anybody?
No sarcasm please

Can anyone point to any sign of panic in the Marca team?
There is one problem with speculations - it is limited to the speculators knowledge. I am not the kind of person you'll find staking a bet on speculations and for good reason - look at the stock market!

The safest bet is that placed against speculator's predictions...
You are on for the 50 lashes from MM. I promise you there will be no cameras!

I'm not conviced Killfile does have any insider info, and even if he does it doesnt mean all his posts are insider info, from what I've seen most of it is his own opinion and he uses the insider tag to give himself weight.

I'm quite entitled to disagree with him and I think I can disagree with him on the Flow Vis quite justifiably. McLaren are the only team to use it last week, and it is regarded as a bad sign if it's still being used late in the pre-season. What evidence has Killfile given to the contrary?

People claiming to have insider info need to be careful - they need to expect people to be suspicious (let's face it, anyone can claim to have insider knowledge), and they need to be careful they don'y get a bit too carried away with their sense of their own importance, and also their ability to analyse things.

Only speculation from Killfile that if they were in trouble then he'd have thought they'd have being rushing around testing more.

It as unusual as full scale model wind tunnel work is banned from this year.

He didn't say that, what he did say is that using it doesn't point towards a team necessarily being in trouble, a slight be very important distinction.

In his opinion. Why is his opinion more important that anyone else's? I've seen his opinions on a few things this week and havent been too impressed.

That's not pointing to a sign of panic.

We all know our ATM_Andys from our Ocelots, and Killfile is quite obviously an insider. Why that gets up your nose I have no idea, but whatever you could simply present your arguments without the personal edge. Otherwise it just looks like you feel challenged.

As to the flow-vis, it was a new front wing last week. It has 4 elements so it's quite likely a Monaco part, it's been explained that they can't test it in the wind tunnel at full size any more, what's so hard to accept about it being flow-vis'd? Why wouldn't they?

well the big difference is that he saying things that are not only seemingly backed up knowledge but also reassuring to McLaren fans, for that I'm totally willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

You on the other hand might not want confirmation that McLaren might be doing ok and so if you are coming from a standpoint that you don't want to believe what he is saying, then you are more liable to dismiss what he is saying and so also dismiss him.

What has he said that is "backed up by knowledge"?

He posted a load of presumptive rubbish as fact in the F60 thread. Quite arrogantly too. That's the reason I started to notice him in the first place.

If it makes you feel any better, the MP4-24 could be a total dog!

exactly, and like quasi C said, its not the rear wing, the rear wing efficiency i mostly decided by the airflows towards it, and judging by all the flow vis and meassure apps mclaren is using, it seems like the flow structures from the tunnel doesnt correlate with the flows on track, and that is a huge problem. Especially with new rules were testing isnt allowed its so important to be able to rely on your tunnel and cfd

My opinion is I'm not sure yet. The Toyota engineer said he thought they had problems, I'd like to hear a few other team's opinions first. I think the car looks bulky at the rear, though. But there is something happening with their diffuser by the looks of it.

The problem is I think Ferrari will have a different diffuser, too.

mclaren could never do 1:1, their tunnel isnt build for it

But the one that the teams hiring out in America could be.

Also, why are no other teams (even Renault) using Flow Vis now? Answer is most likely they have their air flow sorted and do not need to.

Quite right, but you don't know whether your flows correlate until you do the flow-vis testing.

I haven't been watching them every run, but they don't seem to be focusing on any area in particular, just getting coverage in all the critical areas. If they were only doing FV on the rear wing, sidepods and engine cover, you'd have cause to worry.

Ah yes, I found the sequence, just after you accused AFCA of arrogance, Killfile rather cruelly shot down your bold statement about the sidepods' being extended to cover the exhausts rather than with an aero purpose

We'll see this week if the 08 wing and flow-vis are signs of trouble or not. I say not

Will we see every team using flow vis every time they have a new wing design for certain tracks? I do not believe that is normal routine, especially for such a well equipped team.

The main issue is they are doing Flow Vis so late. You would expect them to have the basics sorted by now.

I was rather ruder than I needed to be Madras does deserve an apology for that, at least.

Exactly. Other teams introduced new parts last week without any Flow Vis. Once they know the airflow is matching their simulations nicely there is less need for it. It does point to Mclaren having some issues.

Last June/August testing McLaren was using flow-vis there and that certainly wasn't due to problems.

Well he got one at the time . On the 4-element wing, how would you rate my guess that it's for Monaco?

heh heh, what a turn around that would be, if we suddenly find out McLaren are so confident in their car that they're actually testing aero for midway races then testing just for the forthcoming races

Actually he did nothing of the sort.

Sounds right to me!