QUOTE (Seanspeed @ Jun 10 2009, 09:27)

There's mountains of reasonable logic involved. First off, BrawnGP's long stint pace has looked ominous the day they started testing pre-season. And the last 7 race weekends have pretty much confirmed that it was no fluke.
They've had 3 one-two finishes with two drivers who have never been considered top-tier.
I dont think we have enough info on 'tire degradation' to assume that they are equal in this regard. From everything I've seen and read, it seems that BrawnGP still have the monopoly on this area, so while Red Bull might not have tire wear 'issues', they still might not be up to par with the BrawnGP cars, ya know?
And we've seen in the past that cars can be better in qualifying than they are in the race, so its not completely unreasonable to assume that Red Bull could simply be another case of that. Or maybe that the BrawnGP cars are simply not at their prime in qualifying, but shine in the race.
Either way, the evidence is plastered all over the place. You just have to open your eyes to see it.
Qualifying shows a lot too. When the car is setup for heavier race weights, the car is slower in qualifying. When you setup a car for lighter weights, the tyre wear issue is not as critical, and such a car is quicker in qualifying. Taht the Brawn is quick in qualifying on heavier strategies, shows how fast the car actually is. Also it might be (I don't know though, because Ross Brawn keeps things secret) that the Brawn car gets comparatively better when more rubber is layed down in qualifying. Although I suspect that Ross Brawn has been simply winning by as little as he can. I've thought so for a long time too!
I don't agree about the drivers. I presume though that those who say the RBR is the fastest car are pro Jenson people, or negative SV & MW people. But the Party boy Jenson stopped that type of behavior some years ago. A family member met the drivers after last year's Melbourne GP, at a disco. While Hamilton and the young drivers were the party animals, they hung it on Jenson who moved away and he did not party on. Things have changed quite a lot for him. He was the fastest Michelin driver a few years ago, when David Richards was running the team. He's fast, and he's shown that he avoids errors. Rubnes is old, and IMO prhaps he is not as good as he was, despite deserving to beat Jenson a few races back. Although his bad luck is as strong as its ever been.
On a more positive note about the RBR5, which is on but its first generation DD, hence it is lower on the learning curve than the Brawn. The Brawn had four wind tunels last year, all devoted to this new generation of car. And they introduced a new wing for Turkey, which allowed the whole flap to be moved, rather than just the central triangular section as was previously the case. The RBR had just a minor addition to its DD for Turkey. There is a bigger upgrade for the RBR5 at Silverstone too - we'll find out if it works, it should because their upgrades have so far.
Also the front wing of the RBR does seem to be traffic sensitive. I also presume the Brawn's is too, although I am not sure if we've seen that issue revealed? Anyhow if what was said to be another important step arrives at Silverstone works, then the RBR might close the gap. I presume the front wing for a DD car has a different function to do as well, so I guess the whole front wing design had to be started again when the DD route was confirmed.