fuel-adjusted Belgian GP grid
1 Trulli (lap 12)
2 Vettel +0.156 secs (lap 15)
3 Heidfeld +0.157secs (lap 12)
4 Fisichella +0.211 (lap 10)
5 Kimi Raikkonen +0.290 (lap 12)
6 Mark Webber +0.341 (lap 13)
7 Robert Kubica +0.454 (lap 10)
8 Nico Rosberg +0.495 (lap 16)
9 Rubens Barrichello +0.538 (lap nine)
10 Timo Glock +0.562 (lap 10)

Vettel / Kimi for the win here....

Barrichello takes the other podium place..

J

Go Jarno !!!

I'm sure Trulli will not win, he is not good enough. He will probably hold several drivers up for a few laps then drop steadily through the field, like he usually does. Kimi or Rubens for the win.

You know, Trulli has actually won a race before in his career. Would've won in Bahrain this year if not for a dumb strategy. And the Toyota has been superfast lately (check the fastest laps in Valencia), it just has bottled up qualifying massively in the past few races.

No doubt for me that he's the favourite.

If Barrichello is that light he stands no chance! Räikkönen will most likely escape La Source in P4, unless he crashes , and then it's all up for grabs. A small press could give him P3 into Eau Rouge, but then he'll probably hit the rev limitor, keeping him behind the leader. But, when Fisichella pits, he could retake the lead, and then it's all about how the Ferrari car works its tyres tomorrow. But let's remember that Kimi was the only one who could make the softs last a full lap with high fuel load, and that will be an advantage tomorrow on such a high-wear circuit. If Trulli leads into Les Combes, I think he'll be able to win this thing.

If Fisichella hadnt done the extra lap after his pole lap (in which he failed to improve his time) he would have had 13 laps of fuel, only 1 less than the others...

why are so many people thinking this is Kimi's race? Fuel adjusted, he is slower than all of the cars ahead of him (except barrichello), he was slower than them in q1 and q2 as well, and he has less fuel than trulli, same as heidfeld, and much less than vettel!

If he doesn't make up a couple of places at the start he can't win, and even if he does he will still be behind trulli & heidfeld who have more/the same fuel load and have been quicker than him all weekend. not a likely winner for me.

I see no Trulli train here, since you can overtake in Spa, this ain't no Valencia or Hungaroring. I wish Fisichella can fight for his position but I've seen him lose it so so many times very easily that I don't trust him at all for a race win.

IMO Kimi has a very good chance of winning this race if he gains 2-3 positions at the start, which looks quite feasible given the fuel load he's got compared to cars in front of him (not much more, but enough to make a few clean-air laps once they've pitted) and KERS boost.

But that'd be in ideal conditions, with no rain, no safety cars, etc, which is why I like this sport so much when it's sport and not politics and BS.

I somehow expect the race to have the safety car out more than once. With rain and possibly a crash into Eau Rouge in the first lap...

I'd like Fisichella to win. He was very fast in the past but somewhat erratic. I would also like Trulli to win, but I really don't believe he has the race pace (he has the pace in qualifying, but that's different).

More realistically, I think rain may happen, and there is no knowing who will win. If there is not rain, Vettel seems to stand the best chance of a win.

I liked today's qualification... It is said that Spa is a circuit for Men, not Boys. In today's qualifying, it literally was: the three fastest drivers aren't young enough to be called boys.

Edited to say: Alonso and Hamilton will start from the back. It will be interesting to see if they can actually overtake other drivers and make for an interesting race 'from the back'. I also predict that Button is going to be very quick.

that was the old start finish staright
the new one is longer and la source is pushed even furthur
maybe its not as long as Hungary, but start to first corner should be similar?!

Maybe Hamilton, and because he has KERS. This is not the case of faster cars starting back, their cars are actually slower than the ones in front.

Imagine if Fisi hadnt done his final qualifying lap. He'd be up in 1st or second there.

Forget it, there's about 5% chance of rain.

Just helps to show what nonsense the fuel corrected thing is.

Indeed. Im glad they have decided to scrap the whole thing and go back to low fuel qualifying for Q3 next year.

Not really, it still tells you something, as most drivers do set their fastest laps on the lap lap of qualifying.

yeah, how often they were incorrect with their first pit stop estimates.

you also need to know the exact drivers weights to make it precise.

Nope, only if the car and driver weighs more than 605kg, which the majority do not.

The car+driver must weigh 605kg, so they all weigh the same. The problem is that nobody knows the exact fuel consumption figures for each car/driver combo and so it's all a wild estimate. Quite interesting though, and gives a rough idea as to the potential.

What does this tell me about the chances of rain tomorrow afternoon?

It tells you that he pressed the reply button on the wrong post. Keep doing that myself since the forum update.

Nothing. Never claimed it did. Nobody claimed that at all or infered it.

I'm afraid Trulli doesn't have the race pace on this track. But since the removal of TC he has produced some surprises. I'd not count out Heidfeld or Kimi. Fisichella's only hope is a slow Trulli train. In that case even the Red Bulls may come into the podium game. Rubens only stays alive if Trulli is fast.

So Trulli is the key of this all.

Yes, I know, but I'm expecting the drivers to make a difference. Being fast over one lap is one thing, best drivers are able to deliver for the whole race.

Nope, its the length of new start/finish straight in Spa.

I think that the old straight in Spa was longer, although technically it wasnt the "real" straight.

Pole position at Hungaroring is at a bit different position than that in Spa. In Budapest they start almost at the beginning of the straight, while at Spa they start at half distance of the straight...

Well, you responded to my post that only mentioned the chance of rain!

Trulli is looking great, Kimi too unfortunately, RBR drivers choking again, they will be around 4-5s back from the leader after the first lap because of the start.

Why is it unfortunate that a driver looks great? Surely not his fault?

The strange thing for Red Bull was that they were both competitive in Q1 and Q2, but with a bit of race fuel in them, weren't as quick in the final qualifying session. Might not be all doom and gloom for them tomorrow as they were the fastest over longer runs in practice yesterday. Unlikely they'll win yes, but they could be in with a shout of reaching the podium with a bit of luck on their side.

Of course it's his fault if he looks great, it's much easier to look crap.

Is everyone forgetting that hamilton has more meters to avtivate his kers? hes starting mid grid, not the front, therefore has more of a chance of deploying it, but i would be surprised if he did, la source is too tight and drivers like to jump on the breaks early and there could be some noses up bums into la source if theres kers cars coming from the back.

Just trying to think, if hamilton is in the slip stream of someone out of eau rouge and avtivates kers, who else thinks he might slingshot the 2 cars in front and not jsut the one?

More chance of having cars block his way forward and therefore preventing him from using it.

Kimi is the man on this one of the few drivers' track the driver who can pull the fast laps most consistently, he has the stamina and fighting spirit. Also, he is fastest in the first sector, looks great for doing some overtaking. That's why. Win chance 60%.

ps. didn't see Alonso in top-10

Where do I get some of that fighting spirit from sounds like a good drink, apparently it even turns blow up dolphins into vixens.

Being fast on the last and first sectors won't mean much when it comes to overtaking if some of the cars up front are doing faster laps than Kimi - thanks to much faster middle sec tors than Kimi.

Shame I hoped that Kimi was heavier With this fuel load I doubt that he can win tomorrow as KERS won´t help that much from the start and Vettel and Ham are coming from behind. Besides Heidi and Trulli will come in in the same lap (or mabye Kimi even one lap earlier as his car seems to be heavier than those 605kg).

As he really wants to win this GP and think that he will go all out at the start. Either hero or zero.

Anyway it looks as if it will be an exciting race.

I'm not an Alonso fan(well I admire him a lot but don't support him), my nick is satirical to the way some commentators pronounce the "s" in his name, which shouldn't be pronounced as "z" I guess.

In Q2 situation Ferrari is very slow, Kimi was 4 tenths slower than Kubica(which probably won't mean much in the race). Also BMWs work better with hard tyres while Ferrari with soft, this will be an advantadge for BMWs, specially Heidfeld who has more fuel than Kubica and a proper working engine.

IMO the chance Kimi has to win this race is if he gain positions in the start.

I think Rubens is going to have a great start and lead or run second after the first lap..

Kimi's chance is if the others are inconsistent. Kimi will not be the fastest, but I except/hope him to be the most consistent in the long runs. The tyre behaviour is weird here so there may be unexpected problems for some drivers. Kimi is gentle for the tyres and it should be good in any conditions.

I think we will see a first Toyota victory tomorrow, people are underestimating Trulli

as good as the race pace looks for toyota, i dunno what it is, but something is just telling me that even though this probably is his best chanceof a win, something is going to go wrong for him and it wont happen.

To tell the reality, everyone's chance of victory relies on the start. If a driver get stuck behind a heavier car his race is partially screwed. I'm not so confident about overtakings.

Remember Istanbul 09? and this track enabled good battles in the past F1. These DDD cars are even more difficult to overtake.

Good point. Barcelona was a borefest for Vettel too. With the dirty air at Eau Rouge, we will see little overtakings on the climb to Les Combes.

And KERS is best used in 2nd/3rd gear. Out of La Source for defence to Eau Rouge. Best place to use it is coming on to the long back straight.

yeh, thiessen warned and he was right. The season started decent, but since the diffusor decision overtaking got much harder again.

What a jumbled up grid and race we'll have. I'm not even going to predict anything, just sit back and watch it unfold. I hope the Red Bulls can come into play still.

thanks for clearing that up! Does anyone know the weights of the drivers? Interesting to compare that. Kimi and Alonso look like heavy drivers?

Come on Sebastian!

A big wish for the Spa results

1. Vettel
2. Hamilton
3. Badoer

Button DNF
Barichello DNF
Webber DNF

Some people are starting to say the FIA provided the teams threatening to retire in 2010 with better tyres than the others for this race...

Might be more stupid rumours but the fact is the slowest teams so far have the best results in Spa qualy and it's some of the teams not competing next year or keen not to compete...

Just a coincidence?

I think people are underestimating Heidfeld as well. I'd say it's 50/50 between Trulli and Nick for the win, they should pit on the same lap, IMO it's all about whether Nick takes advantage of the clean side of the grid to get by Trulli or if Trulli can hold him off. I hope Nick follows Webber's example and takes his first win, it's his time