With all the confusion about what the grid will be like for tomorrow and no offical grid being announced till the morning I thought it would be fun to see how people on this forum think the grid will look.
Here's what I think

1. Vettel
2. Trulli
3. Hamilton
4. Heidfeld
5. Raikkonen
6. Rosberg
7. Kubica
8. Sutil
9. Barrichello
10. Kovalainen
11. Alguersuari
12. Button
13. Fisichella
14. Buemi
15. Nakajima
16. Alonso
17. Grosjean
18. Liuzzi

With Webber and Glock starting from the pits.


The grid before penalties:

1. Vettel
2. Trulli
3. Hamilton
4. Sutil
5. Barrichello
6. Heidfeld
7. Button
8. Raikkonen
9. Kovalainen
10. Buemi
11. Rosberg
12. Alonso
13. Kubica
14. Glock
15. Alguersuari
16. Fisichella
17. Nakajima
18. Grosjean
19. Liuzzi
20. Webber

Give us the grid list with unpenalised positions first then we can all have a shot.

Perhaps the FIA will try to ensure Button and Barrichello are as far down as possible so as to make sure Vettel has the best possible chance to keep the championship race going into the last 2 rounds?

I'm kidding, really. But stranger things have happened..

1 Sebastian Vettel
2 Jarno Trulli
3 Lewis Hamilton
4 Nick Heidfeld
5 Kimi Raikkonen
6 Nico Rosberg
7 Robert Kubica
8 Adrian Sutil
9 Rubens Barrichello
10 Heikki Kovalainen
11 Jenson Button
12 Jaime Alguersuari
13 Giancarlo Fisichella
14 Sebastien Buemi
15 Kazuki Nakajima
16 Fernando Alonso
17 Romain Grosjean
18 Vitantonio Liuzzi
19 Timo Glock
20 Mark Webber

Added to OP

Penalties applied in order that offenses were committed. So we know right now is that Kova's penalty for a gearbox change (is that confirmed yet?) is the last that gets applied unless someone else earns a penalty.

On the same principle, we also know Buemi's penalty comes before the others (but after Liuzzi's).

What order did Alonso, Sutil, Button, Barrichello go through the yellows? I know Barri was ahead of Button, so Barri goes back before Button. Where do Alonso and Sutil fit into that?

It doesn't matter if Alonso was before Sutil at the yellow-flag. This punishment of the 5 drivers have been given at the same moment. So first the 5 drivers, than Kovalainen, and then Glock to the pits.

Pre-penalty grid with notes on order penalties applied:

1. Vettel
2. Trulli
3. Hamilton
4. Sutil (???)
5. Barrichello (before Button)
6. Heidfeld
7. Button (after Barri)
8. Raikkonen
9. Kovalainen (last)
10. Buemi (first)
11. Rosberg
12. Alonso (???)
13. Kubica
14. Glock (pitlane, but behind Webber?)
15. Alguersuari
16. Fisichella
17. Nakajima
18. Grosjean
19. Liuzzi (irrelevant)
20. Webber (pitlane)

Looks like we need to know the order they went past the yellow flags in. Seems overly complicated though.

Yes this is how I see it too

Autosport article says the rules state penalties are given in the order that the offenses were committed. When the penalties were actually handed out is irrelevant. As such, Buemi penalty gets applied first, then whoever was first of those penalised to ignore the yellows, then whoever was second etc.

Assuming the offences were committed in the following order - Buemi, Alonso, Sutil, Barrichello, Button. Then apply Kova penalty and I get.

Vettel
Trulli
Hamilton
Heidfeld
Raikkonen
Sutil
Barrichello
Rosberg
Button
Kubica
Kova
Alguesuari
Buemi
Fisichella
Alonso
Nakajima
Grosjean
Liuzzi
Webber (pitlane)
Glock (pitlane)

Note: I did this by shuffling up all drivers up after each penalty is applied, before applying the next penalty.

It's a bit of a grey area exactly when Buemi actually broke the rules.

Too difficult. And I can't remember that it works this way. But okay, we will see.

Wasn't Alonso complainining that the others had not lifted, but he had lifted.

Presumably is claim is not backed up by telemetry if he is also being penalised?

That's probably correct.

1. Vettel
2. Trulli
3. Hamilton
4. Heidfeld
5. Raikkonen
6. Sutil
7. Barrichello
8. Rosberg
9. Button
10. Kubica
11. Kovalainen
12. Alguersuari
13. Buemi
14. Fisichella
15. Nakajima
16. Alonso
17. Grosjean
18. Liuzzi
19. Glock
20. Webber

I still put Glock ahead of Webber because Webber didn't even enter qualifying.

I started forming the grid from the back and this is what I got:

1. Vettel
2. Trulli
3. Hamilton
4. Heidfeld
5. Raikkonen
6. Rosberg
7. Kubica
8. Alguersuari
9. Sutil
10. Barrichello
11. Fisichella
12. Button
13. Nakajima
14. Kovalainen
15. Buemi
16. Alonso
17. Grosjean
18 or Pits. Liuzzi
Pits. Glock (if fit)
Pits. Webber

Interesting, but if this is correct then most of the penalised driver get away with only a 2 place penalty. I think each should recieve their full 5 place penalty eg. Sutil qualified 4th and therefore shouldn't start higher then 9th. This way all drivers that recieved penalties don't gain from other penalised drivers and only the innocent drivers gain.

Assuming the same pippin does, I get this:

1. Vettel
2. Trulli
3. Hamilton
4. Heidfeld
5. Raikkonen
6. Sutil
7. Barrichello
8. Rosberg
9. Button
10. Kubica
11. Kovalainen
12. Glock (pitlane, so slot empty on actual grid)
13. Alguersuari
14. Buemi
15. Fisichella
16. Alonso
17. Nakajima
18. Grosjean
19. Liuzzi
20. Webber (pitlane)

If that's accurate, the penalties handed out to Sutil, Barrichello and Button are an absolute joke. Their 5 place penalties end up only costing them 2 places each. Alonso gets hammered with the full 5 places.

I think this example shows that a rule change is needed here, in the case of multiple drivers being penalised in a single session. If, after all penalties from a single session are applied a driver's penalty is reduced, they keep getting moved back until the full penalty is served. Kova is exempt in this case, as his gearbox change is assessed post-qually (despite the damage being done during qually).

1. Vettel
2. Trulli
3. Hamilton
4. Heidfeld
5. Raikkonen
6. Rosberg
7. Kubica
8. Alguersuari
9. Sutil
10. Barrichello
11. Fisichella
12. Button
13. Nakajima
14. Kovalainen
15. Buemi
16. Grosjean
17. Alonso
18. Liuzzi
19. Glock
20. Webber

That way they all take an exact 5 place penalty (I think I've got that right, I started to confuse myself). Also if Webber has made an engine change then he has to start behind Glock.

There are alot of things ALonso says that are not true

1 - Never driving for a red car
2 - Not knowing about Crashgate



e.t.c

If I was in charge, the provisional grid after qually would look like this (noting that Kova has not been penalised yet):

1. Vettel
2. Trulli
3. Hamilton
4. Heidfeld
5. Raikkonen
6. Kovalainen
7. Rosberg
8. Kubica
9. Sutil (5 place penalty served)
10. Barrichello (5 place penalty served)
11. Button (5 place penalty served, but gains due to Glock)
12. Alguersuari
13. Fisichella
14. Buemi (5 place penalty served, but gains due to Glock)
15. Nakajima
16. Alonso (5 place penalty served, but gains due to Glock)
17. Grosjean
18. Liuzzi
pitlane1. Glock (damage was done in qually, but his removal from the grid is assessed before the race not as part of qually)
pitlane2. Webber

If Kova subsequently changes his gearbox, I have no problem with Sutil and Barri then benefitting. Their penalty is served at the end of qually, while Kova's is served between qually and race start. I would assess Kova before Glock, however, as Glock's is a larger penalty.

Alternatively, we could go with the penalty that I personally believed should have been assessed: All of the 5 drivers have their Q2 times annulled and start P11 through P15. Buemi 15th as his penalty comes with a reprimand. Rest in the order they finished Q1.

Yes it does go to show you just how wildly different the grid will end up depending on how the penalties are applied. One way and the punished drivers only lose 2-3 places each and another way some drivers gain 6 places. My interpretaton of the regs is that a penalty is only fully applied to 1 driver at a time, therefore the grid must be re-ordered, before the next penalty is applied. Thats what 'in order is' surely?

Although all 5 drivers incurred the penalty owing to the same incident, there still was a clear order in which the offences were committed because the drivers were spread out on track. Buemi had the crash, then each of the other 4 drivers drove through the yellow flag zone in the order they were on track.

Having said all that, wording is always open to interpretation so who knows what the grid order might be. If its deemed fairer that each driver does get the full 5 place demotion, then thats probably what they'll get.

I wonder what would happen if everyone in the grid got a 5 place penalty.

I don't agree with this way of applying penalties. It allows people who qualified poorly to benefit excessively for others' penalities. It would see Alguersuari starting 8th even though he failed to set a Q2 time after binning it at the start of the session. Okay, it's a bit naughty not to lift for a yellow flag, but are we really saying a car that is 15th after stuffing it in the tyres should start 4 places ahead of a car that qualified 7th, with the further advantage of being able to start with as much fuel as he wants?

I can only imagine what the anti-Button brigade would be saying if it had been him, rather than Alguersuari, who had binned it in Q2. In that case Rubens would have qualified 5th but ended up starting 2 places behind Button with him on low fuel and Button on full tanks, with no chance whatever of passing him in the race... Is that fair?

The way you apply penalities is one at a time in order of the commission of the offences, and after a penalty is applied everyone else moves up a place. That's how it's always been done when the penalties are announced separetely, so there's no reason to do it differently just because this time the penalties were all announced together. The disadvantage for crashing before you've set a time should be heavier than for making the stewards slightly cross.

1. Vettel
2. Trulli
3. Hamilton
4. Heidfeld
5. Räikkönen
6. Rosberg
7. Kubica
8. Sutil
9. Barrichello
10. Kovalainen
11. Button
12. Alguersuari
13. Fisichella
14. Buemi
15. Nakajima
16. Alonso
17. Grosjean
18. Liuzzi
Glock (pitlane)
Webber (pitlane)

Yes, because, and here's the important part, you have to slow down under yellow flags. Not doing so should be viewed as one of the gravest offenses as it endangers other drivers, marshals and the driver that didn't slow down. Breaking safety rules should be punished to the full extent.

They got off quite lightly anyway... should be 10 positions and a hefty fine.

I agree with that to an extent, although the penalty is what it is and it's 5 places. If you apply the penalties one at a time in accordance with past precedent and the rules as written, all drivers would still get a 5 place penalty, it's just that some drivers would have the effect of that offset by being lucky enough to have already benefited from an earlier penalty to a driver just ahead of them. That's just the way it goes sometimes. I still stand by the fact that Button qualified more than 5 places ahead of Alguersuari so, even with the penalty, it's quite right that he should start ahead of him and not 4 places behind him.

I think not reacting appropriately to yellows is a serious thing, but would it really have been any safer if they'd all had a lift on the straight? Unless they all lifted by exactly the same amount, surely the danger is that one driver would lift more than the guy behind him and you'd then have a bad accident as a result. Just lifting fractionally to make the stewards happy wouldn't necessarily make anybody any safer - 170mph is surely just as potentially lethal as 180?

Possibly a bit better than guess the grid; here's the fuel adjusted grid graphic which might help. http://www.pitlanefanatic.com/blog/index.p...fying-analysis/

I really don't know how it'll be...

It's another wishy-washy Spanky cock-up.

It's just what they do with Glock. Do they send hem at the back before they give the others penalties or not. I don't know. The sporting regulations gave no answer.

I think after, because Glock set a time in Q2 and only gets penalised for changing chassis after qualifying.

If that's true, my list must be correct according the rules. It's the question if the FIA know their own rules...

Basically Glock's grid position will remain, nobody will move up to take his place - he can still start from it if he uses the original chassis. But obviously he wont because it's shagged. So he has to start from the pit lane.

Except he's not starting at all. Only one Toyota on the grid according to Adam Cooper.

http://formula-one.speedtv.com/article/f1-...of-japanese-gp/

So Glock grid spot should be empty I think, which is going to create even more confusion in calculations, brilliant!

In Hungary everybody moved up a place after Massa's crash (Buemi 10th, Trulli 11th, Barrichello 12th etc).

Yes but are they applying the penalties before or after this has been decided as he had the crash before the penalties as that will affest Alonso. Is he 16th or 17th?

So tomorrows grid as we know is

1)Vettel
2) Trulli
3) Lewis
4) Heidfeld
5) Kimi
6) ?
7) ?
8) ?
9) ?
10) ?
11) ?
12) ?
13) ?
14) ?
15) ?
16) ?
17) ?
18) Liuzzi
Pitlane Webber.

So yep I think its crystal clear.

LOL, might as well draw lots.

if you are a given a 5 place penalty, you get 5 places added to your grid position, what happens to other people should have no influence on it. all this nonsense about who committed which penalty first is utter nonsense.

The order of the grid only is important if you are sent "to the back of the grid" or something similar. There's no intermediate provisional grid afaik (except probably for penalties applied after an official grid has been put out).

Correct me if Im wrong but assuming that all top ten drivers are penalised 5 positions and the order of commiting a "crime" was the same as Q3 order (so 1. receives the penalty first, second second and so on) wouldnt top 6 remain the same as before penalty? Doesnt that make commiting a "crime" benefitial or at least neutral for everyone who commits it as long as big group commits it?

I wouldn't be surprised at all if stewards decide to apply this reasoning at hand out all the penalties at once. On the other hand, fact they need additional time to figure out suggest they're trying to figure out the chronological order. Conspiracy theorist will be satisfied either way.

Nope, 11-15 would be 1-5, 1-10 would be 6-15, 16-20 would stay the same.

In order to make that math correctly, they must start punnishing who have worst place, and continue with this method. This way all drivers will drop behind 5 other non-penalty drivers.

From the BMW thread:



7th column is the unofficial and purely speculative starting order if the penalties are handout in chronological order. It would make zero sense for my money as both Brawns would be in a better position than Kubica despite being offenders, but we'll see.

I would've thought it only matters whether you earned your grid penalty before, during or after qualifying, i.e. all grid penalties resulting from offences committed during qualifying would be applied at the same time, regardless of whether someone failed to observe yellow flags 15 seconds earlier than someone else. The alternative is simply too messy and complicated. Basically, the penalties would be applied in the order they're known of.

IMHO that would be the case if they where penalised them in order: 5th, 4th, 3rd, 2nd, 1st.