QUOTE (HoldenRT @ Jan 29 2010, 13:54)

Personally I'm having a hard time getting excited by any of the launches because you know that all the cars are going to be closer together this year (stable aero regs) and you know that winter testing isn't going to tell you much. To refresh everyone's memory, last winter it was thought that the Renault could be competitve (there was optimism at least from Renault fans), that the Ferrari was the main front runner, Brawn wasn't even on the radar until late and the Redbull was thought to be 5th or 6th (or 8th) best team. You get to Melbourne and it's Brawn, Redbull, Williams, Toyota etc.
It was thought that the Renault could be competitive? IIRC it looked like a dog in winter testing, right from the start.
Ferrari was not seen as the main front runner either, Massa openly said that they were well behind Brawn and the tests did not go against his prediction (the eventual results confirmed it, and then some).
Brawn not even on the radar? Not until they first tested their car I guess, and pretty much from that moment on they were the favorites for 2009 - and again Massa also said that openly during winter testing. Of course, there were a lot of people here who couldn't believe that and kept saying Brawn was running underweight to get sponsors, but many others predicted a championship fought between Button and Barrichello. There was a poll in winter testing, asking if Brawn would score a 1-2 in Melbourne (which, sure enough, they did).
Red Bull thought to be 8th best team? Vettel looked fast right out of the box, set a lap record at Jerez IIRC, in early testing. The only thing that looked a bit bad for them was the double-decker diffuser, which they didn't have while Brawn, Toyota and Williams did. The relatively "bad" performance of the latter 2 was the only main surprise in Melbourne. What was not a surprise was how bad the McLaren was, that had clearly been shown in testing.