QUOTE (TennisUK @ Nov 17 2009, 20:51)

My initial view was that Hamilton would would win this fairly convincingly, but there are other issues to consider - one of which is the new set of regs for next year, primarily the lack of refuelling. The Mclaren design theme over the last few years has favoured drivers how like to drive aggressively with the front of the car, which is the antithesis of Button's smooth style. Hamilton has managed to devastatingly effective with this paradigm, but next years regs may allow Button to claw back some of that, since the car will be much heavier and hence place much more emphasis on tyre management. I suspect we'll see Hamilton destroy Button in qualifying, with the gap closing during the race. I still reckon Hamilton will prove the quicker overall though.
Of course, there is a fairly high, almost certain, probability, that I am wrong.
I concur, on all points, including your last one...
My guess is:
- Hamilton qualifies before Button 3/4 of the races, but it will be very close, often adjacent grid positions.
- Button runs longer first stint all races, sometimes getting enough lead to beat Hamilton after first tyre changes, sometimes not.
- Procession racing means race finish order is almost always decided after first tyre changes (circa crashes and breakdowns).
Still, Button may get drawn into Hamiltons more aggressive style, and after his race at Interlagos I think he really may have it in him to match Hamilton, and if he can blend in extra aggression with still being smooth in the early stages, he might end up being overall more suited to next years type of races.
Its going to be one of the most fascinating aspects of 2010!