QUOTE (tkulla @ Jan 22 2011, 02:31)

1) Not really what I'm getting at though. Some drivers primary strength is adaptability. They can get in anything and drive it fast. A great skill, but it becomes less valuable the better the car is. A good example of someone that exceled in lesser machinery is Fisichella. Fisi managed to pull out great races here and there when in midfield cars, and dominated his teammates in such cars. But when he had his chance in the class of the field he was nowhere (yes, he had Alonso as his teammate - but note that Fernando is a guy that knows exactly what he wants from a car).
2) Now before the screaming starts I'm not comparing Lewis to Fisi. Lewis has proven he can win a championship and can drive a good car fast. But the very adaptability that is such an asset will still be diminished the better the car gets. And Button's narrow window becomes an asset, as he knows exactly how he wants the car and with a great car it won't be difficult for him to fine tune it.
3) A great example of this is Schumacher. A guy with great skill but with a very specific needs from the car. When he had the car to meet those needs he was untouchable. Very quick drivers like Irvine and Rubens couldn't get near him. Last year the car couldn't meet those needs so he totally lost that advantage.
4) Now back to our guys. Jenson knows exactly what he wants. But Lewis could very well run into the problem of not really knowing what works for him best. He can drive it fast no matter how you set it up (within reason, of course) so he and the engineers have much less to go on when it comes to direction. This is where Button could get a leg up on Hamilton.
5) If Jenson finds the zone, Lewis could surely copy his setup if he wanted to, but this isn't likely to work either. As good as he is at driving using various styles, he's not going to out-smooth Button.
6) That said, this all requires a very specific set of circumstances, and even if it happens exactly as I'm suggesting that doesn't mean that will be a lot in it. Lewis is so strong in Q that he can still take the fight to Jenson, and he will have his tracks like Canada where he just finds speed others don't seem to find.
7) I hope McLaren builds the rocketship we're all hoping for and we'll find out if my hypothesis holds water. I also wants to see how Hamilton reacts to being beaten on speed (instead of by guile). He's like the undefeated boxer that has never been knocked down - you don't really know how he'll react to it until it happens (and sooner or later it always does).
I've referenced each of your para's to aid my reply:
1) The Fisi example is completely irrelevant. You are using an example of Fisi beating some teammates, whilst he himself was then beaten by a different teammate (Alonso). This is completely irrelevant to your speculation that Lewis beats Jenson in a poor car but will lose to Jenson in a good car. Find me an example of a driver who soundly beats him teammate in a poor car and in turn gets beaten by the
same teammate in a good car. Otherwise it's all apples and oranges.
2) I don't disagree with you that the advantage of adaptability is diminished in a good car. That's obvious. The key point though is that a car is not static throughout the season, the tracks change, the track conditions change, the tyres degrade, in-race damage occurs etc. Not to mention that without refuelling, as per 2010 there will remain a massive change in the car's balance as fuel load wears off, and with this season's regulations it can't even be compensated for by front wing adjustment. So a perfectly balanced car at the start of the race is going to be comparatively poor by the last third, and vice versa. And if the car is setup for a compromise between quali and race, then it will be the more adaptable driver that continues to extract the most from it in both quali and race, except for the short window of the middle third of the race where the less adaptable driver could be as quicker or quicker according to your theory. Still doesn't help him if he gets whipped in quali and the other two thirds of the race.
3) Schumacher isn't a proven great example at all. You are comparing Schumacher in his dominant era against a much older one who has been out of racing for 3 yrs and paired up against one of the top 5 drivers on the grid. You may be right that Schumi's relatively poor performance could be down to the car not suiting him, but before 2010 it was commonly acknowledged that one of Schumi's greatest skills was his adaptability. One of those guys proven to be quick even when his gearbox failed leaving him with just 1 gear. We need to see how he performs this season, and for your theory to hold, he needs to be quicker than his teammate by a margin sufficient enough to discount the performance gain as attributable solely to a second season to get back in the groove after being out for 3 yrs. Even then, the performance difference could simply be down to which driver the tyre suits more.
4) Your theory completely forgets those many instances, in his 4 seasons so far, where Lewis' practise and Q1 times were well off the mark. But working with his engineer, a few adjustments and setup changes, and he comes back to bag pole out of nowhere. Don't make the mistake of confusing a driver that is adaptable to one that does not know what he wants out of the car to suit him best.
5) I have little comment on this as I have no idea (like yourself) about how the two driver's setups differ or not. But regarding the smooth part, it's overstated. Here's a very smooth lap by Lewis (one of many, a quick search reveals)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfCCsjotXoc difficult to be much smoother than that. As a comparison, here's Jenson in Turkey
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbeNokhlTbI watch from 1:00 onwards. I don't see much difference, in fact Lewis' lap seems to be smoother. Especially interesting is that Lewis' is a qualy lap vs Jenson's race lap and you would expect that a quali lap, which will of course be more aggressive to get one lap performance out of the tyre, to be far less smoother than a race lap where the aim is to take far greater car of the tyres. Also, as a direct comparison in the same race here's Lewis chasing Webber
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBvPl13uwpc I see very little difference in "smoothness", similar steering inputs even though Jenson was in clear air and Lewis was chasing and keeping up with a RB6, and the only main difference I can note is that Lewis gets on the throttle notably quicker than Jenson, but not enough to result in any power oversteer.
7) I agree, we don't know how he'll react if he's ever beaten. Personally, for me he comes across very hard on himself and the team. I don't get the impression that he expects nor wants preferential treatment, so if he gets beaten on an equal footing I would expect that he looks at his own performance very hard and strives to improve. But no one knows.