Once more time have come for the predictions of a season, and a couple of Championships.
2010 will re-introduce full tank racing, which surely will lead to both heartache and joy during races.
Testing have been cut down, and every team have stated themselves satisfied, and feeling they were doing good. This I believe to an extent, however it will fast become clear on track who was right and who was wrong.
As far as I can gather from testing, then there is a very substantial drop in times between a low fuel qualifying run, and race pace. Obvious that with 180 liters of fuel in the tank to start the race, the cars are bound to be slower, however even on fresh tires and semi low fuel levels, seem that the drop off is markedly lower.
The teams and drivers must learn to set a car up able to handle a low fuel qualifying run, while preparing for a heavy race. This was Prost's great quality in his day, and I will expect at least 1 driver to show himself very capable in this department.
We still have 2 teams which may or may not show in Bahrain, however there is no reason to think that they will be anywhere near race winning pace, we can see with both Lotus and Virgin that a steep learning curve is part of entering F1, and both Campos Meta1 and USF1 are planning a 'lower' (in my view) level of talent driver wise, and the are in their current mess due not having the needed funds, which is not the way to move forward either.
In general my season predictions have fallen somewhat of the mark the last couple of years, so at the end of 2010, some of what I predict will surely not come to pass.
Drivers who could shine
–
Massa
Button
Buemi
I think they will be able to handle their cars through a race, and lose less speed than their team mates, and I expect that their cars are strong enough to be in the mix.
Driver who could 'struggle'
–
Hamilton
Schumacher
Rosberg
Vettel
Webber
I 'quote' struggle, as it is relative and not for the same reasons.
Hamilton and Schumacher I think may be too hard on their tires, and will see a huge drop-off towards the end of the race, however they are at the same time among the top 3 talent wise on the grid, which will possibly place them in the race so they can 'ease' and still win.
Rosberg I am uncertain of, my feeling is that he is not polished enough, meaning that he will not put down the metronomic laps needed, and he will not have the 'sprints' from the refueling era to compensate for that.
Vettel and Webber will have speed and heartbreak, I will sound as a broken record, but testing indicate that Newey have once again designed a very fast, yet fragile car. When the Red Bull does not break down, I will expect it to mix it at the front, but it will break too much for either to take the WDC.
There is no common consensus, as to which cars will be fast, which engines will be thirsty, except seems that every one mention Ferrari as the team to beat.
I am a little concerned that Ferrari can find themselves in a situation where Massa is too close to Alonso, and that to be detrimental to the atmosphere in the team, I see Alonso as a better driver, but Massa have the past seasons shown himself to be a much much better driver than what many thought of him the first couple of seasons he was in F1, and I have a feeling he may find the heavy towards light cars exactly what he needs to decrease the difference there may be up to Alonso.
Basically see the same situation play out at McLaren with Hamilton the better driver, Button the one who can handle the car / tires better.
The testing and testing times have been argued and discussed in depth, and seemingly every one have read into them what they wanted to read, primarily based on team likes and dislikes.
I expect close races most of the season, and I expect there will be at least 6 different winners of a Grand Prix.
WCC
--
Ferrari
Mercedes
McLaren
Red Bull
Toro Rosso
Williams
Sauber
Renault
Force India
Lotus
Virgin
Campos
USF1
WDC
--
I do expect that the battle will be close and that the WDC will not be settled until the last race of the season.
1.) Massa
2.) Schumacher
3.) Alonso
4.) Button
5.) Hamilton
6.) Rosberg
7.) Buemi
8.) Vettel
9.) Webber
10.) Kubica
11.) Hulkenberg
12.) Kobayashi
13.) de la Rosa
14.) Barichello
15.) Alguarsuari
16.) Sutil
17.) Liuzzi
18.) Petrov
19.) Trulli
20.) Kovalainen
21.) Glock
22.) di Grassi
23.) Senna
24.) 'second Campos driver'
25.) Lopez
26.) 'second USF1 driver'
But I have been wrong before.
