That Brawn-Mercedes in Melbourne last year was a rare opportunity to run the board until the heavyweights caught up. Not every driver is ready when his moment appears. Button definitely was ready. Barrichello wasn't. He would say he wasn't given the same priority so those who agree have been provided with the option to include him. To be forward-looking and constructive, advocates for Villeneuve and/or Schumacher should assess those options as being in the state of readiness in which they expect them to appear in Bahrain 2010.

Good question...

I think all of them would make a good fist of it at the start but the real question is how t=would the other drivers handle the pressure /situation of being championship leader as the other teams catch up technically.

I can think of one or two who might do the same as Jenson did and start to crack, but I can also think of one or two who would keep racing aggressively and bin it. I'm not sure it's easy to *properly* answer.

Of the active drivers the only one who springs to mind would be Fernando Alonso. He did it, kinda, already in 05 and 06. Even in 07 it looked like he'd do it again, until they went to America. When he had the best car or the other guy's car broke down he took it easily. In those 3 consecutive seasons he had only 3 driving mistakes I can remember (Canada 05 and 07 + Japan 07). His performance though was super-consistent otherwise. I am pretty sure he'd be doing it again if given the right car for it.

Jenson, Fernando, Lewis, Kimi and Vettel

The top 5 IMO

I agree wit hthe above minus Vettel, he still makes alot of errors. And he's never had to be caught, hes always done the chasing.

Not every driver is good enough when his moment appears either.

That's a possible flaw in your theory.

There is the strong possibility that Barrichello simply isn't good enough to maximise his opportunities consistently throughout a season. Ferrari did always claim they had a level playing field until such a time one of their drivers was ahead enough to put a block on their other driver. Maybe on this years evidence we might be able to start believing Ferrari's claims even a little bit.

He's only ever won from pole, apart from Abu Dhabi where Hamilton had the win sewn up until his brake fault.

I've just had a long conversation with a friend who says, "Heidfeld could!" He was most adamant. Anyone agree?

Me.

Just this week I put £20 on Nick at 80/1 for next years WDC.

Easily laughed at and quite improbable, but people said that about Button this time last year. I can easily afford the £20, that's no skin off my nose. If I lose it I lose it, if not I pocket £1620 in less than a years time.

I am of course banking on him signing with Mercedes and then Mercedes providing him with a Brawn. If he does then of course he can do a Button. People give Nick a lot of shit and wrongly. He's had a bucketload of good results in F1 for his entire career in bad car after bad car. I see no reason for him not to be say the next Hakkinen, rather than the next Button. People are citing Button as the yardstick in this respect, forgetting that Hakkinen didn't set the world alight until the 98/99 seasons. It can be done.

The bookies have missed a trick here. Okay so I might end up pissed off if I logon to Autosport and read "Heidfeld to USF1", but you can still get amazing odds on him. Even if people put a fiver on him it's good money to be made. You'd spend more than that on a pizza delivered to your door...

He hasn't even won a race yet, so, no. For this particular theory he isn't really qualified. Not saying he couldn't, but it would just be extremely speculative.

Neither does Vettel qualify imho. Not yet at least. Too many driving mistakes still. But he's young. He could well become one of the kind.

(PS this thread is not directly about drivers abilities, but about the ability to carry an early, eroding advantage to the WDC, right?)

I don't agree.

The championship was won on consistency and pace, there's a few drivers that are faster - but I don't think there's many that are more consistent than Button.

Absolutely. 16 races out of 17, he finished in the points. That's consistency.

I find the purpose of the thread difficult to decipher personally.

RE Heidfeld: Hakkinen hadn't won a race until the last round in 1997, and then embarked on his back-to-back WDC's. Button had only won once race prior to Melbourne 2009, and there were almost two and a half seasons between those wins. Why can Heidfeld therefore not do a Button? I'd have thought he's the ideal candidate.

I may however be misunderstanding the purpose of the thread. I thought it was more about which previously unproven quantities could suddenly take an advantage and maximise it.

I do. I tend to think of the careers of Jenson, Mark Webber and Nick together. Jenson and Mark got their chances this year and I don't see any reason to think Nick wouldn't have done as well as either of them if he'd been in a Brawn or Red Bull.
Mark hadn't won before this season and Jenson had won once. And that (although very impressive) happened after one of Fernando's wheels fell off. Nick only needed the leader to lose a wheel in any one of of eight races to be a Grand Prix winner.

EDIT: to answer the original question a bit better, I think about half the grid would have a fair shot at the championship in the right car.

Exactly. And much as Sebastien Vettel is lauded as something of a new Messiah (and partially rightly so IMO) one of his (only) five wins came at the expense of Hamilton retiring due to a brake failure. Granted he was running well in second place, but that proves your point about Nick on those eight ocassions.

If you mean by 'done a Button' - been in F1 9 years, only won 1 race, never driven a championship winning car, then found himself potentially without a drive the following year, but still toughed it out during the Winter even turning down other offers, in the hope of the team being saved.

Given a car as good as the Brawn was this year there's probably a few drivers who could have become WDC in it, but to be honest none of those drivers could have done what Button did because they simply wouldn't have risked not having a drive. In fact they'd probably have had other offers, possibly better than the ones Button had for 09. No what Button did was pretty much a one off.

Or the rain to have arrived at Spa perhaps a lap earlier.

Heidfeld definitely has the consistency to have put a title charge together - I think he could have had he had the best car this year won. Nico Rosberg probably as well.

Saying that about Nick, he's got to the perhaps the Montgomerie or the Jimmy White stage where he's finished 2nd so many times, you just want him to win one race.

I don't think Jarno would have done. He would have won races sure, but whereas as Button got points as the season unravelled in Europe, I think Jarno would have ended up getting 9th's and 12th's. Timo, I don't think he'd do it. Sutil, probably too many mistakes.

Thing is Vettels mistakes happened at the earlier part of the season. The 2 mistakes in the latter half of the season were Singapore (dubious as it turned out he didn't actually speed and if it had gone down to a point in the WDC I think Red Bull would have taken it further) and Brazil which was a bit of a lottery and some team blame can be put in there as well.

Back to the question in hand, Alonso, Lewis, Kimi, Felipe, Kubica and Rubens if he'd have had the right brakes from the start of the season.

Heidfeld.

I agree that Nick is probably the most similar driver to Jenson in style, but I just don't recall any of those flashes of brilliance from him. His BMW last year was imo equivalent to the 2006 Honda for the second half of the year and he just didnt do enough with it.

Nick Heidfeld could most certainly have won it.

It's about how a champion driver's abilities must be (1) present (2) matured to consistency (3) impervious (enough) to self-doubt.

First, the pace. This is commonplace. The rare exceptions who haven't shown evidence of it are embarrassingly obvious and if they're not bringing money then some employer has made a mistake. But like Kovalainen flashes of it aren't good enough. You must stand and deliver damn near every time it's required or else ... buh- bye. There are others, like an unmotivated Raikkonen, who may bring their A game this weekend or maybe not. That's not good enough. If the title's there to be taken, you must press your advantage relentlessly until the opposition starts thinking about next year's car. The fastest car is usually the easiest to drive at the limit so be comfortable as you scorch their earth. Or don't you consider yourself worthy?

Secondly, the consistency. Without it you will lose with the number of races we have and the small bonus winners receive in points. Some legends have it immediately like Stewart, for example. But this isn't about legends, it's about those who eventuallly acquire a champion's prerequisites. Massa took a while to get consistent but he did. Trulli? No. Rosberg? Vettel? Kubica? Just about?

Thirdly, we saw the definitive test of nerve this year when Button, with the title in his unclenched palm at midseason, had to face the fact that he is not as good as his string of wins implied. He bent but he did not break. He didn't demand greatness that wasn't there from himself but he did demand steady competent execution of what was within his power. That's not legendary but does compel our respect for a worthy championship performance. I can't say that for Barrichello.

About Button you are correct. After a long time in F1 he suddenly found himself about to win the WDC, but almost just as quick he found himself just about to lose it over more than half a season. Look at the benchmark I keep referring to, Hakkinen. He won races all the way through his first WDC season up to and including the last two races. That looked, felt and was a season long championship campaign. Button's season was a handful of car-assisted dominance, followed by more than half a season of utter panic, losing his cool and frankly not knowing which way to turn.

I frankly think half the grid would have done a better season-long job of it if sat in the Brawn than Button did.

I think his 2007 Bahrain GP (including That Pass on Alonso) is as good as anything Jenson did pre-2009.

Agreed it was a fantastic move (i can remember Brundle saying this is personal as clear as day, obv Merc and Bmw)

But Button around the outside of Jaques at Pouhon in drying conditions was better than anything i've seen Nick do IMO
Balls of steel needed

I will say it is great that Nick seems to be getting a lot of support, well deserved IMO

button ?????????

Jenson has been making mistakes/chokes allmost the entire half of the season. If Jenson can become WDC like that, then so can Vettel. It's not like Jenson drove perfectly.

How about an old retired MS? I think he could have done it

i've just taken your advice and gone onto william hill. 33/1 BUT they've taken the bet button off against his name. odd......

Even Taki Inoue could have won a race in that car at the beginning of the season!

Awesome, I put £10 on him at 100/1 2 weeks ago. His odds have dropped to 33/1 now though.

Hamilton
Alonso
Heidfeld
Trulli
Kubica
Button
Rosberg
Alonso
Massa
Raikkonen
Webber
Barrichello

Ok for starters Rubens didn't.

To be even capable of doing what Button did in 2009 surely you can only list drivers who would have actually chosen to drive for Brawn given the circumstances. So I reckon that would remove everyone from that list except maybe Heidfeld and Trulli.

I think those could:
Hamilton
Alonso
Massa
Raikkonen

Maybe could, but not sure:
Vettel
Kubica
Rosberg
Webber

Rest of grid - probably not.

IMO, out of the 2009 roster, these drivers could:

Button (doh!)
Vettel (yes, he could have done it)
Kubica
Kimi
Massa
Hamilton
Webber (without his usual lack of luck)
Alonso
Rosberg
Heidfeld (still no gp win, but he is consistent and fast, with a superior car he had everything he needed to win)

These guys above i have zero doubt they would have done it.

these guys below are possible too but i wouldnt bet on them:
Trulli
Glock
Fisichella
Barrichello (he didnt i know, but under slighty different circunstances he might have done it)

I might be forgetting someone, but i guess what im trying to say is that even if what button did last year was remarkable it doesnt put him in a different class as far as driver's quality goes. Cars do mean a lot in F1 and that's that.