Lady luck was very favourable with playing her hand on Mark last season I would have thought.
For example his first win in Germany - Mark's pointless tussle with Rubens given the fuel loads, the subsequent drive through, the Mclaren of Kova holding Brawn up.

The performance differentiators between Mark and Seb boil down to only a few things:
- Seb is marginally faster
- Seb is less consistent being naturally more aggressive
- Mark is marginally more error prone under pressure situations
- Mark struggles handling the car on sub optimal tyres with heavy fuel (Q3 last season and outlaps)

Other than that there is not much to pick out between them as racing car drivers.

If Mark can play to his consistency strengths and against Seb;s weakness - namely that he is naturally more aggressive and will therefore take more risks, therefore have more non-scoring failures - then he has a chance of beating over the course of the season.

The big problem with this is that the revised points scoring system favours drivers of Seb's mould.
Providing RB6 is the same podium contender that RB5 was the gap between Mark and Seb this year will be more pronounced, in Seb's favour.
If the car is lower toptier to upper midfield and unreliable then I think it plays into Mark's territory given his experience handling those situations.

Don't think you have to be a keen follower of him. You just need to be a keen follower of the sport. He's just not the guy to attract this new generation of "fans" who aren't in touch with reality. They jump every new "superstar-trend" as they do with their favorite popstars, be it Brittney Spears or whoever. Just look how those people smack true legends of the sport left and right only to make their current homeboy look that little bit more sensational. No wonder Mark is being rated a useless pile of s***e by them. The more often they write it the more real it becomes for them.


And in 2 or 4 years there will be this new guy with his own new crowd. And they will give the same treatment to today's topdrivers - probably even to Sebastian.

Sometimes people don't want to hear the truth. To me, it's undeniable that Webber handles pressure poorly and that Vettel had a pace edge over him last year, less so in races than qualifying but over the course of the year Vettel was the quicker in races. Vettel was often bottled up, in free air man he was fast. Webber took more chances overtaking and got himself clear air more often, the similarities between 05 with Heidfeld are spooky, except this time Webber was Heidfeld (so to speak).

In saying that, Webber was plain robbed early in the year.

Melbourne: Kovalainen smacks Rubens who ends Mark's race
Malaysia: Webber flat out drives better than vettel and is robbed by the red flag, cost him a bag of points
Bahrain: Sutil an absolute cock of the highest order costing Mark a bag of points (that one really hurt)
Silverstone: Kimi asleep with mark on a ball tearer in qualifying with his confidence sky high

By that point Webber could easily have had a significant points lead over vettel which would have been interesting to say the least.

No exciuses though, Vettel deserved the win last year.

This year i see a few significant issues ....

1) No KERS so the starts are much less of a shit storm though i guarantee we still launch slower than everyone else. KERS was masive for RBR last year, they were swamped from two rows back whereas Brawn could bugger off at the start.

2) Narrower tyres

3) Low fule Q3

4) Heavier min weight

2,3 and 4 on paper help Webber ...... but i'd still back vettel.

Jez it was 5 races:

Valencia - car was slow, both out of the points.
Spa - passed Seb and 3 others on track then got drive thru for incorrect pits release
Monza - punted off by Kubica first lap
Singapore - retired from brake failure
Suzuka - Crashed in practice and damaged chassis, headrest came loose and had puncture ending race

He was only responsible for Suzuka. Could have won both Spa and Suzuka and he followed these races with a win and second place.

Excuses...excuses...excuses.

I count most of MWs troubles in 09 as racing incidents.
They always happen and both drivers had them.

The only things I think are unforgivable are the two lollypop man stuff ups that cost Mark drive-through penalties.

How many other teams cost themselves a points finish through an incident like that...not many.

As Jez and I have said several time, Webber was not on it during early runs on heavy fuel.
If he has that sorted this year then SV will be in for a fight.
If not them MW will most likely be out of RBR by years end.


The way I see things in 09(just my opinion nothing more)

MW
Week on heavy fuel effecting Q3 and out laps
A bit panicky under pressure.
Dropped his bundle and had a holiday after his win.
Damn solid race performances when the above 3 points were not a factor

SV
Prone to a few driver mistakes early on
Not aggressive enough when fighting to take positions.
Dynamite when running form the front.
Equally so in qualifying.

As to each drivers race pace (I am not going to publish numbers again, it was done all throughout the year)
A simple observation is this.
In the first 2 stints (in the last stint at least one driver is not pushing hard normally)
MW matched or exceeded SVs pace and performance in 2/3rds of the races.

This and only this is why he was in-front of SV at one point and managed the 2 wins he got.
When a driver is out qualified as convincingly as Webber was you have to be doing something else right to have scored what he did.

The main things I'm worried about for Seb this year is not being able to use pit strategy to get past people and he also wore his tyres out a lot earlier than Mark last year, I think in '10 he will need to learn to drive conservatively at times instead of all out attack.

To be honest I think that Vettel will edge Webber again this year, but only just. Vettel is more naturally talented no doubt, but Mark has a wise head and shows flashes of brilliance here and there which makes this a tight battle. If Mark hopes to beat Seb this year he will have to match or beat him in Qualifying. Last year as others have stated in Q2 it was much closer, so back to pure low fuel runs may help Mark. Can't wait for this season, so many great intra team battles!

Indeed

Last year the MW SV contest was the best on offer.
This year there are so many more ;)

The car situation is a little less interesting this year.
I fear the usual suspects will be on top again

Of the top 4 teams this will be the best battle per say I think.

People seem to forget Mark actually led Seb for a couple of rounds after Hungary last year and at the time was looking the better bet for Red Bull to throw their weight behind him due to his better consistency.

No doubt Seb had the better year and was the faster driver though. 4 wins (All dominant), 4 pole positions and beat Mark 15-2 in qualifying. Wasn't consistent enough though and that's where Mark was able to draw even (Until his horror run of 5 consecutive no points finishes).

Mark's got a far better preparation coming into this year though, but Seb will also no doubt be a year wiser. To say Mark doesn't belong or is a crap driver though is just ridiculous. And at the above Minardi comparison, obviously the 01 and 02 Minardi's were in the same league as the 08 late season Toro Rosso that even had Bourdais competing for podiums.

I am very confident about RBR 2010. As you well know sanjiro RBR and particularly Mark are not known for their optimism in the press, but Mark seems to be pretty chirpy about their chances

;) my negativity precedes me.
In this case however I was including RBR in that group, just disappointed McLaren and Ferrari will be top runners again.
I liked the randomness of races last year.

Although a few of the minor teams are looking fast atm, with the massive fuel loads its even harder this year to guess where the teams are.

Nope I'll be happy if Mark shades Vettel and wins WDC then all the Webber naysayers can eat some humble pie. He deserves more than anyone to be WDC and I would be over the moon if that happened. WDC this year then his choice of drive in 2011. As long as he is performing I don't see why he shouldn't stay in F1. Look at how old Barrichello is and hes still driving well. Go Webber,Vettel and RBR in 2010!

Deserves? Why is MW more deserving than anyone else?

Hes not, but hes hardly undeserving given his commitment to teams in the past and his injuries, and his long time involvement in F1.

Not saying he is undeserving at all. I just hate the statement that someone deserves it more than another.

I don't think he dropped the ball at all. Only really made one big mistake during practice at Japan where he missed qualli due to car damage. The lean patch your talking about was Spain (car not quick enough), Belgium (should have had 3rd but penalised for unsafe pit release) and then 2 retirements (Italy - tagged from behind by Kubica and ends up in the gravel) and then Singapore Mark retires after driving well with brake failure. Vettel had an engine failure at Spain, took 3rd at Spa which Mark probably would have had if not for the unsafe pit release. Then the car was crap in Italy where vettel only managed 9th. A good drive from vettel gets him 4th in Singapore. Mark could have finished around that position as well if not for the brake failure. Overall mark didn't really do a hell of alot wrong there. just bad luck really and car problems.

Ok maybe I could have worded that better but if anyone deserves to win WDC surely you would have to look at Mark. You can't argue that he has been one of the unluckiest guys in F1. How he got into F1 is an amazing story in itself, almost missing out because he couldn't get initial sponsorship. He missed out on a plumb drive with Renault when they were coming into form due to his boyhood dreams of driving for Williams who at the time looked like being a front runner. Plus the way he battled back from a terrible injury last year when some would have thrown in the towel and retired is amazing. Bottom line is I would love to see him win WDC as he has definitley paid his dues. Just needs some luck and consistent driving this year. And yeah a good car too!

I would argue against him dropping the ball last year. Check my post recent post about that in this thread. The 4 race lean patch people talk about needs to be looked into more before making broad statements like that. 2 retirements (tagged from behind - Italy, brake failure - Singapore) and then a slow car in Spain and unsafe pit release in Spa is hardly him dropping the ball. More like a case of bad luck and car problems.

I think Mark's comment about a Red Bull 1-2 and Alonso 3rd was made tongue in cheek.

RB6 reliability is the concerning thing.
They have broken down 2-3 times already, reminiscent of RB3 during winter.

Why exactly is he more deserving than the other twenty something other drivers?

Pitiful excuses.

How is being slow in Spain and colliding with Kubica at Monza down to bad luck?

How could an accident not caused by you and your car not working at a particular circuit be described as good luck?

yeah agree.

I also fear the performance of the RB6 may end up being inversely proportionate to it's pre-season hype. Mark's confidence might be ill placed. He's usually cautious.... will his unusual pre-season confiidence end up in inversely proportionate success?

It was a racing incident... this means blame is roughly 50/50.

Mark was not an innocent bystander when he ran Kubica off the tarmac.

Re Valencia: didn't gowebber list car problems as well?
Re Monza: RB5 didn't suit Monza, so both cars started lower than usual - lost wings and spins happen back in the pack.

Vettel is still young and has a lot more room for improvement. I think he will have the upper hand again, but it will be very close between them. The Q1 and Q2 times were pretty close last year so I don't expect Vettel to dominate Mark in Qualifying. Vettel will improve which means to be more consistent during races and do less mistakes

I didn't know that was why he went to Williams that year. Did he say that in an interview or is it speculation on your or someone else's part? That's interesting, though.

By the way, I just don't get why when others have outlined quite reasonable and logically facts regarding Webber's DNFs from 09 the anti-Webber lot just say pat things like 'excuses, excuses' as if the people pointing these events out are trying to claim Webber would have beaten Vettel or won the WDC had they not happened. Simply listing the actual facts surrounding these incidents doesn't make Webber's case one way or the other, they are merely statements of fact. I do believe in the old saying that you make your own luck, and as we know Webber's had his fair share of the bad variety of it, which does go to show that maybe one of Webber's weak points is that he puts himself in positions where such things can happen. It's like how Adrian Sutil now seems to get himself into a lot of collisions -- at some point maybe you have to say he's bringing it on himself?

Sounds like most of the grid to me, past and present.

Yes definitely Webber is one of the unluckiest drivers in F1, along with Barrichello.

Reminds me of an old story about Bernie being approached in his Brabham-owning days. Someone offered him a driver who was really, really quick. Bernie said "What's he won?" "Nothing- he's really really quick, but he's really unlucky." "Tell me why" replied Bernie "Would I want to hire an unlucky driver?"

Yeah its well known he went against Flavs advice to go to Renault because he loved Williams and wanted to be a winner there. Yeah I am a Webber fan but I will admit when Mark has dropped the ball or made a bad mistake and to be honest I can't see recently where he has other than that big mistake in practice last year at Japan. I thought he drove very well last year and quite consistently. Some people are quick to bag him without analysing the facts properly. At least I try to present a logical argument with some facts unlike some people in here. I don't know how you can put 50/50 blame when someone tags u from behind like that. Yes Mark has alot of bad luck but more than his fair share has been out of his control. Anyway I'bve argued this point before I just think people need to look aty it more closely before bagging him.

He never ran anyone off the tarmac. Mark was tagged from behind and unlucky for him hits the gravel and can't get going again. If he had luck he wouldn't have got tagged and/or would have made it back out of the gravel. Marks own words....

""It seems like his front wheel was inside my rear left at the second chicane, it was difficult to know he was there. We had contact which flicked the car into the air a little bit, then nosed it into the guard rail. The car was undamaged, but I couldn't get it out and back onto the track. I couldn't have done anything differently"

http://www.crash.net/f1/news/152311/1/webb...g_incident.html

Oh yeah like Mark would actually come out and say "yep it's my fault" when it was a racing incident.

Well to Mark's credit, he did just that when he hit Hamilton and took him out of the race in Hungary last year (immediately after he gave Rubens a good bump at the start). Right after the race he rang up McLaren and apologised. Credit where credit's due.

^ not Hungary, Germany.

I was not having a dig at Mark.
Just responding to the post about Mark's post race comment about the Kubica incident.
I think any driver that admits guilt to a racing incident is stupid (eg. Vettel @ Albert Park), though that is probably more inexperience than stupidity.

The original point being that you cannot put a racing incident down as bad luck... though the Webber diehards will try to blame anything but their driver for failures.

Sometimes you can just be in the wrong place.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmjpMgR4qzI

I see. I do find that interesting because, as I said, I do believe in the old 'you make your own luck' adage. And there you go -- he was advised to go to Renault, chose Williams instead, and as we know with hindsight, Renault was a strong car in 2005. So then people say 2009 was Webber's first season in a race winning car and he had been unlucky not to find himself in such a car until then. But as you say, Webber had the chance to go to Renault for 05, instead chose Williams, and hence -- he made his own luck there, didn't he?

Hindsight is marvelous.

It is bad luck when you get tagged from behind like that and then end up in the gravel and are not able to get out. As Mark said he doesn't think he could have done much else there to avoid what happened so he was very unlucky to DNF in that situation.

ok, let's have a look at the championship standings:

2009
Vettel 2nd
Webber 4th

2008
Vettel 8th
Webber 11th

2007
Webber 12th
Vettel 14th

2006
Webber 14th

2005
Webber 10th

2004
Webber 13th

2003
Webber 10th

2002
Webber 16th


Or in other words

first year
Vettel 12th
Webbo 16th

seccond year
Vettel 8th
Webbo 10th

third year
Vettel 2th
Webbo 13th

He clearly succumbs to Vettel. There's no question about his speed, though. He is what Jenson is to Hamilton, the inofficial no. 2 and will help Vettel to secure the championship this year.

That was only a part of it. Most people saw Williams as the better option as they looked very strong at the end of the previous season and Montoya dominated Brazil.



Jez you are just trolling now, go and watch the incident, Kubica simply punted him straight off the track from behind, they were never even side by side.

The stupidest stats I´ve seen.

I have seen the incident.

It was roughly 50/50 and Mark put himself in harms way there after the messy scrap with Kubica.

Robert Kubica – DNF: “I made a very good start and was in quite a good position before the first braking point. I was on the left hand side of Mark Webber. I guess he did not see me at all. Mark pushed me on the grass while I was on the brakes. Although I managed to come back on the track, we touched in corner one. In Roggia he was on the outside and slightly in front of me. When we were going into the first apex unfortunately again I was not able to avoid him. I ended up with a damaged front wing, but am not sure how this happened as it could have been with my fight with Mark or I could have hit a kerb. However, I was able to continue and managed to overtake Sebastian Vettel, despite having the front wing problem. For safety reasons we had to change the wing a couple of laps later. Finally an oil leak forced me to retire.”

Mark is entitled to defend his position. Bottom line is Kubica was behind and should have taken more care. Kubica hit Mark more towards the rear of his car from behind and certainly not side by side. Its alot easier when you are behind to watch what is going on in front of you and try and avoid an accident. Anyway why are we even debating this? I stated Mark had bad luck previously and thats exactly what happened because if he had good luck he would have got through the lap unscathed. He said he had nowhere else to go and feels he couldn't have done anything else to avoid it, so arguing about this is like flogging a dead horse...

More trolling with useless stats. How about taking into account the car the driver had over their career. Webber has never had a standout car that was capable of winning races until last year. Even then he was still able to get some substandard cars into a possible winning position, such as the Williams a few years ago in Australia and Monaco before he had mechanical problems. Both Vettel and Webber are great drivers capable of beating each other to WDC.

yes correct it was only part of it and Mark knew that as well. He saw the Williams finish the year off with a win if I recall correctly and also as he loved Williams decided against taking Flavs advice. Given the facts at that point in time and not knowing Renault were going to be so good the following few years, many other drivers probably would have made the same incorrect decision to go with Williams. As it was mentioned before hindsight is a wonderful thing

You'd have to be a complete git to go to Renault with Alonso and flav there, look what happened to Trulli.

Hard to say really. maybe Mark might have beaten Fernando, maybe not. Also I think Mark and Flav get along well which helps

Trulli essentially was beating Alonso and Flav freaked. Alonso was Flav's baby and meal ticket, no one was going to finish in front of alonso whilst Flav was there.

with your logic, LH is the greatest driver of all times.