Take a look at last year's thread:

http://forums.autosport.com/index.php?showtopic=107061

Apart from Brawn, people's perception of the pecking order was pretty far off. Virtually no-one put RBR in their top 5, and most massively over-estimated BMW and Ferrari. I have a feeling we're once again going to shocked in some way come Bahrain 2010.

Once Merc have applied their major update I don't see a basis for separating the top 4 teams, in terms of their cars' basic pace. Maybe an order will emerge but atm I think it's going to come down to who does the best at the weekend - setups, use of data, and driving. Good Friday, good Qualy, and good raceday.

Fiddling around with corrections until your home boy comes out top isn't much use IMO, except for page hits.

I think people putting Mac and Merc behind haven't adjusted for what we saw on the last day of testing and for Merc's Bahrain update.

Maybe the guys with their 09 RE's will have a slight advantage? Massa, and (I assume) Webbo & Seb.

I don't think it's a coincidence that so many teams set these very similar laptimes on short runs on the final days. Those must've been qualy sims. Of course that doesn't mean everyone was running on 100% empty tanks, but assuming they were doing so is the only way to come up with an analysis of the times. Do you have a better suggestion?

interesting considering JA said that looking at sector times, nico could have done a 120.2 and that he was setting fast sector times on different laps, possibly on purpose. also, RB said that Schumi hasn't done a proper low fuel qualy lap yet...how does that factor in?

Ferrari

I'll start off with some controversy. Ferrari is a third-place team. I know, everyone says they're the team to beat, but I see through all their big-talk and fancy lap times and I know their weakness - and it's a doozy. The Ferrari eats tires like the cookie monster eats oreos. Sure, they can do a 40-lap stint, but only on hard tires with their lap times slowly inching up, whereas the other teams are able to lower their lap times as the fuel burns off. And on the soft compounds, I'm surprised that there isn't a visible cloud of rubber trailing behind them.

I know I'm completely out on a limb on that - it's dead opposite of what I've read pretty much anywhere. But I can't help but go back to the final race sims in Barcelona...



You can see what I mean about the Ferrari. They can manage to just keep their lap times even as the tires go and the fuel burns off, but then they get new rubber and fly. The Mac and Merc, on the other hand, seem much easier on the rubber. The first stint is the most important in this regard, given the fuel loads and everyone fighting for position. Massa just killed this particular set of tires, while Schumacher, Button and Alonso managed to at least get theirs to hold. Hamilton's first stint is scary. His entire race sim is scary - I mean you can't even tell where he pits.

The other thing is that while Ferrari might look fast now, they've got no new parts planned until Barcelona; and unlike the other leading teams, they've already got their car pretty much tuned in. So on both counts, there's less room for improvement over the first races.

So yeah, they look quick, but they're not quick enough, because...

McLaren

WDC, WCC. I think they're in a perfect position with the car this year. It was quick out of the box - fastest lap times in all but one of the tests, fastest trap times in all of the tests; it responds well to updates; they've thoroughly mapped out the aero in real life conditions; they've got an update planned for the first race; and they've been more than a bit coy in testing. And as quick as they are, both drivers still say that they're only just now getting into doing setup work.

Not to mention all the complicated gadgetry and cheatery that I'm sure they've yet to completely understand, much less unleash.

This car has legs.

Mercedes

I think they had a bit of a slow start this year. They didn't have the car ready for the launch, had difficulty understanding some problems, and weren't able to get any real updates out during testing. Nonetheless, the car is still quick, and I don't expect Brawn to let his team languish. They'll have a big update in Bahrain, and I think that will set the tone for the season. If it's good, then they'll be the ones to take the fight to McLaren throughout the year. If not, well then they won't. As close as they are, I'm expecting their update to pull them ahead of Ferrari in Bahrain, but not ahead of McLaren, only because they'll have updates of their own.

Red Bull

You never know with them. Last year, everyone had them pegged as solidly mid-pack, but then they came out fighting and almost won the championship. I think they're a bit quicker than they let on; though I expect the extra speed is along the lines of what McLaren and Merc will show. So - I think they'll be fighting Ferrari for third, but who knows.

Force India

If last year wasn't enough of a demonstration, this year will prove to everyone that the key to making the independent teams competitive is through partnerships and customer cars. FI's tie-up with McLaren is deep enough for me to consider them a customer team, and I think it shows. They'll do well this year; every bit as well as...

Sauber

BMW is gone, but Peter got the house in the divorce. And the kids. And...

The only problem is that he didn't get any of the sponsors. I think they'll start well, but the money pinch will show itself soon enough. Expect them to surprise at first, but fade as the year goes by.

Williams

Cosworth's great hope. Solid team; solid midpack performances. They'll fight it out with STR, Renault, and Sauber.

STR

If you liked last year's Red Bull, you'll like this year's STR, only with worse drivers.

Renault

Good driver, but I just don't hold out much hope for the team. Too many personel changes, too steep a drop in budget.

Lotus

Virgin is faster right now, but Lotus is more likely to last.

Virgin

This team is an underrated threat to finish races, I think.

Campos

Late to the race. Later to the finish. If they show up.

Stephan

Maybe it's just me, but I don't think that 40' shipping container looks all that aerodynamic.

USF1

Yeah, right.

Here's my take...

Ferrari

I'll start off with some controversy. Ferrari is a third-place team. I know, everyone says they're the team to beat, but I see through all their big-talk and fancy lap times

I feel a big surprise coming.

Everybody agrees it´s very close. And everybody agress about those four teams having an edge on the ones immediately behind.

I´m thinking Hamilton on pole, and Alonso to win Bahrain. The Red Bulls will be top five in both qualifying and the race.

I think the Red Bulls are better than top five. I think it's more likely to be Vettel on pole and then Alonso for the race win in Bahrain. Regardless of the exact order of the starting grid, if Alonso qualifies in the top three he wins the race on superior tyre performance. That's the closest prediction I can make at this point.

The big question is whether the update will bring the predicted 4 tenths or not... I've been here for a few pre-seasons now, and there's always a team or two that claims "don't worry, we'll bring updates". Usually that ignores the fact the other teams are also constantly bringing updates! If they don't for Bahrain, they'll do it for the following race and Merc will have nothing to show there. There's also usually some false rumours around about updates. It wasn't long ago that Ferrari was supposed to be working on a super-mega-diffuser to bring at the later stages of testing, I've yet to see it...

Renault are also claiming they have a big update coming. In their case, I am hoping that it will work, because if it doesn't this is going to be a painful season as a Kubica supporter!

Here's my take...

The only one I can see is Sauber, at least according to Autosport. The car is being super kind to its tyres apparently.

Qualy Trims

1- McLaren
2- Red Bull
3- Ferrari
4- Mercedes

Race Trims

1- McLaren
2- Ferrari
3- Red Bull
4- Mercedes

They re all very close. I think they are all between 0.3 tenths. There is no room for any mistakes.

Want to bump this after the first race. It seems Ferrari and Red Bull are the strongest and that Mercedes and McLaren are slightly behind. Then Force India maybe?

I think the Red Bulls are better than top five. I think it's more likely to be Vettel on pole and then Alonso for the race win in Bahrain. Regardless of the exact order of the starting grid, if Alonso qualifies in the top three he wins the race on superior tyre performance. That's the closest prediction I can make at this point.

First tier
RedBull, McLaren, Ferrari

Second tier
Mercedes, Williams, perhaps Sauber

If I were to predict the first winner, I'd say Vettel.
The only real candidates will be Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes. The other teams do not have consistent enough drivers.

From what we saw at Bahrain I think this is the current order:

Red Bull = Ferrari

How can you get things wrong when there is no guessing anymore?

RBR > Ferrari

Just to congratulate myself

And you were absolutely spot on.

Ok, the pre-season testing will be over in a few hours and I think we've all had a close enough look at the times/likely fuel loads/length of stints to form a view on who's where.

For me, its

1. Ferrari

juuust ahead (in race pace anyway) of

(equal 2nd) Red Bull & McLaren

who have a slight edge over

(equal 4th) Mercedes & Williams

then, in order

6. Sauber
7. Renault
8. Force India (not as good as they think, imo)
9. Toro Rosso (though they could be a surprise when the real show starts)
10. Lotus
11. Virgin

I think the team most likely to be foxing is Red Bull. They might be well out in front once the flag drops for first qualifying in Bahrain, at least if their car doesn't break down every hour. Why do I think this? They seem to be able to do longer stints at the same laptime as teams like Mercedes (in particular) who are doing shorter stints. Of course, this might just mean other teams are carrying the same fuel load but not burning it all up before they pit. Plus I think that Red Bull will be the only top team with a real desire to mask their true pace and thus not encourage a bunch of copycat aero bits turning up in Bahrain, something that happened A LOT in the second half of last year.

No science to my thoughts really, just hunches.

forget this tier thing, it's not precise. The thing is:
Red Bull>Ferrari>>Mclaren>Mercedes>Renault>Force India>>Williams>Toro Rosso about the same as Sauber.

I expect some changes in Melbourne though.