Ok, the pre-season testing will be over in a few hours and I think we've all had a close enough look at the times/likely fuel loads/length of stints to form a view on who's where.

For me, its

1. Ferrari

juuust ahead (in race pace anyway) of

(equal 2nd) Red Bull & McLaren

who have a slight edge over

(equal 4th) Mercedes & Williams

then, in order

6. Sauber
7. Renault
8. Force India (not as good as they think, imo)
9. Toro Rosso (though they could be a surprise when the real show starts)
10. Lotus
11. Virgin

I think the team most likely to be foxing is Red Bull. They might be well out in front once the flag drops for first qualifying in Bahrain, at least if their car doesn't break down every hour. Why do I think this? They seem to be able to do longer stints at the same laptime as teams like Mercedes (in particular) who are doing shorter stints. Of course, this might just mean other teams are carrying the same fuel load but not burning it all up before they pit. Plus I think that Red Bull will be the only top team with a real desire to mask their true pace and thus not encourage a bunch of copycat aero bits turning up in Bahrain, something that happened A LOT in the second half of last year.

No science to my thoughts really, just hunches.

I'd have to agree with you on that, I think Macca and RBR are very equal but RBR will be let down by reliability again I think. Mercedes will be 4th but I think they're hiding something and Williams may well spring a surprise with their reliability and Hulkenberg suddenly seems to be quick.

I'd go with:

1: Ferrari
2. McLaren
3. Red Bull
4. Mercedes
5. Williams
6. Sauber
7. Renault
8. Force India
9. STR
10. Lotus
11. Virgin
12. Campos

For the first time in years, we seem to be talking about the previous midfield teams (such as Williams and Sauber) as being front runners. JB said that he thinks there are 6 teams fighting for it...

First tier
RedBull, McLaren, Ferrari

Second tier
Mercedes, Williams, perhaps Sauber

If I were to predict the first winner, I'd say Vettel.
The only real candidates will be Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes. The other teams do not have consistent enough drivers.

this topic went largely un-noticed, forgive me bumping it but I feel it's worth more discussion.

ferrari, red bull
mclaren
mercedes, sauber
williams, torro rosso, force india
renault
lotus
virgin
campos

I expect mercedes to equal, or even surpass, mclaren by the time Q1 bahrain comes around though.

I believe this pre-season has been more indicative then the last for some reason, even though all logic should point to the opposite.

I pretty much agree with this. Sauber is a maybe. Force India might be in the second tier as well.

You rate Toro Rosso higher than Renault? Is that because the TR, like the RB6, is an evolution of the RB5?

yes, i believe thay have done a solid job with their evolution of the rb5, i think they might surprise a few people.

i do feel they will not have the level of development throughout the season to stay in that position though.

renault on the other hand have just looked off the pace, where as torro rosso have put in some very solid stints.

To be fair, RBR had 2 mechanical DNFs out of 34 starts last year and 1 in 36 during 2008.

*awaits 2010 to be 50% DNF rate*

Red Bull, Ferrari

Mercedes


Mclaren, Sauber

Williams

Renault, Squadra Toro Rosso, Force India

Lotus
Virgin
Hispania



Stefan is the wildcard.

Don't let the truth get in the way of a good yarn.

A Ted Kravtiz article on the BBC F1 site reckons -

1 Ferrari & Red Bull
2 McLaren & Mercedes
3 Others (Sauber leading?)

My gut feeling is -

1 Ferrari, excellent race pace
2 Red Bull, best qualifier, reliability concerns
3 McLaren, second best qualifier
4 Mercedes
5 Others

It's just impressive that even Hamilton having the best race simulation, the best time and the best 3 sectors over the Barcelona track people here still consider them a tier bellow Ferrari and RBR.

I'm surprised people rate McLaren so low even after the final day of testing at Barcelona.

Red Bull
McLaren
Ferrari

Mercedes
Williams
Force India
Sauber
Renault

Toro Rosso

Lotus
Virgin

exactly my impression.

It seemed to me that RBR wasn't as light as Hamilton and Massa on the last day of testing, still they were on the same pace. Webber said that with low fuel, RB6 is "super quick". Ferrari is very consistent over long runs and therefore will fight for wins from the first race. I'm not too sure what to make of Mclaren, it always seemed to me that they were trying to show pace to be in the headlines. We'll see Mclaren's true speed in Q2 and Q3 in a few days.

I think the OP got it spot on.

That said, speculation will get us nowhere.

Not true! If we keep it up it'll get us to the first race

Take a look at last year's thread:

http://forums.autosport.com/index.php?showtopic=107061

Apart from Brawn, people's perception of the pecking order was pretty far off. Virtually no-one put RBR in their top 5, and most massively over-estimated BMW and Ferrari. I have a feeling we're once again going to shocked in some way come Bahrain 2010.

Probably because guys like Kravitz actually have more in depth analysis of the data unlike you. Even Hamilton himself reckons Mclaren are not top and Ferrari looked quickest. Maybe you should ring him up and educate him.

Ha! Yeah that is true, just ignore me while I eat my words

In Bahrain it may well be:

Mercedes
Red Bull
Ferrari
Mclaren
Williams
Sauber
Force India
Scuderia Toro Rosso
Renault
Stefan GP
Lotus
Virgin
Hispania

Mercedes will end up as the understatement of pre-season, Renault as usual as the most overrated.
This, or I may have to eat my words...

I expect 1-2 teams to surprise most of us and also 1-2 that will be disappointing looking at the results of winter testing, just can´t work out which

RB
Ferrari
Merc
Macc
FI
Sauber
TR
Williams
Renault
Lotus
Virgin
-HRT
-USF1
-SGP

HRT makes China race.

Virgirn
Lotus

**Gap**

the Rest!

Is this Campos Meta's latest name ?

Ferrari
McLaren
Mercedes
Red Bull
Force India
Renault
Williams
Sauber
Toro Rosso
Stefan (if they make it)
Lotus
Virgin
HRT

My thoughts also.

I think Mercedes will have some kind of upgrade for Bahrain and because of that might surprise some. Ferrari seems like the team to beat but Ross Brawn is Ross Brawn and he is a genius. Adding to that the chemistry with Schumacher and I see a lot of potential in the Mercedes team.

Red Bull has shown some speed but the design seems fragile. Another Newey fragile design? Have they gone to far?

Going into Bahrain I can't tell Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes apart.

Just taking a wild guess - I would guess Mercedes will be stronger than they have looked. I expect Red Bull to be quite fast but fragile.

I think Ferrari will be good this year, but if they aren't as good as they think I can see some problems within the team coming. They go into the first race with a lot of expectations and if they get "only" a podium that spells trouble for everyone.

I think McLaren is slightly behind but have a lot of potential.

Topteams: Mercedes, Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren

Then I'd rank them like this for this season:

5. Force India - seems they have something good going on

6. Sauber - starting good then falling behind as the season carries on?

7. Williams - Maybe the Hulk and Barrichello will find the odd podium but no fireworks.

8. Renault - I expect nothing from them. But I think Kubica will put in 1 or 2 amazing drives.

9. Toro Rosso - might be good but hey - they are Toro Rosso so why should I think that.


10. Lotus - will improve
11. Virgin - will also improve - I think they have more enthusiasm (than Lotus) and potential to really get somewhere but might have to wait until next season to pass Lotus.

12. Campos - behind - way behind. Might fight it out with Lotus and Virgin if they get to the grid but where I expect Lotus and Virgin to improve I can't see that for Campos yet.


Outsider - Stefan GP, how good is the upgraded Toyotacar if they get an entry? Renault maybe better? Big questionmark about potential drivers there. Nakajima isn't F1 material and Villeneuve (which I used to admire) will try to make too many weird setups and he doesn't have it anymore. He will probably get nowhere. I would love to be totally wrong there by the way. I wouldn't mind him pulling of great drives!

People who are putting Force India in front of Sauber will get disapointed.

If Stefan do make it, I expect even a completely untested 2010 Toyota with Toyota engine to still trounce any of the other newcomers. Nakajima is certainly not top drawer but he got enough points finishes in a mediocre Williams to show he wont drown. And JV while not what he was, I would imagine still has enough to be competent. Stefan, for me, would go straight into the middle of the pack. Then it's all about the ability to develop the package.

Force India in Sutil's hands against pretty much anything in de la Rosa's hands? We might have to share the disappointment ;)

McLaren, Ferrari
Red Bull
Mercedes, Williams
Sauber
Toro Rosso, Force India
Renault(?)
...
Stefan(????)
...
...
...
...
HRT(????)
...
Virgin
Lotus

Renault are the hardest to guess as they didn't do a race sim at the same time as the others, neither did a qualy sim recently. Stefan and HRT are complete guesses after they've not done any testing, I'm expecting Stefan to arrive at the grid just behind the established teams with an undeveloped Toyota, whereas I have a sneaky feeling HRT might have a quicker car than Virgin and Lotus - sure they are utterly unprepared, but I have faith on Dallara's design team.

I also think the teams at the front are almost too close to divide in groups like this, the gap between the top 6 or top 7 seems to be just half a second, and that sort of advantage is very volatile and very small to detect in testing - so I wouldn't be too surprised to see Red Bull or Merc or Williams winning the first GP.

You'll see Koba improving a lot this season and he is already good. Also, don't forget that Sutil likes to be involved in crashes.

Koba is a dark horse alright. As for Sutil, it's OK Raikkonen is gone so there's no-one to skid into the back of him any more

Great analysis of MAG (the f1.com reporter) in his blog. Its in spanish so, u know, google translate...
analysis

My feeling is that some teams will qualify well, bugger someone else's race, and then fade later on. Sauber has potential for that, but I don't want to be unfair to them; we need proof that they can last. I am still not sure who has it all together. (Ferrari?).

That was not in depth, and I'm a Kravitz fan.

Hamilton said nothing of the sort.

I see 3 tiers:

1st tier, in this order:

• Red Bull
• Ferrari
• McLaren
• Mercedes

2nd tier, in this order:

• Williams
• Sauber
• Force India
• Renault
• Stefan (should they compete)

3rd tier, in this order:

• Toro Rosso
• Virgin
• Lotus
• HRT

Toro Rosso treading water with the rest of that lot? Sorry, I just can't see it. I agree with having 3 tiers but STR for me are at the bottom of tier 2 miiiiiles ahead of tier 3.

Whole quali/race weekend performance:
Tier1: Ferrari and RedBull

Tier2: McLaren
Tier 2.5 Mercedes

Tier 3: Williams, Sauber

Tier 4: Force India, ToroRosso, Renault

Big drop

Tier 5: Stefan
Tier 6: Lotus
Tier 7: Virgin, HRT

Cheater

ferrari/mclaren
red bull
mercedes

williams
force india
sauber

torro rosso
renault

lotus
virgin
hrt

Very good reading. Thanks.

Today he analyzes qualification and has a 'corrected' time sheet:



Neumático - Tyres: softs or supersofts.

Estado - New or used tyres.

Carga - Number of laps.

Errores - Lap in witch driver made fastest lap.

Tomorrow he will have a look at race simulations.

Ferrari >
> McLaren >
> Red Bull >>
>> Mercedes >>>
>>>Williams>
>Sauber>
>Force India>>
>>Torro Rosso>
>Renault>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>Lotus>>>
>>>Virgin

Well, he makes a major mistake when he considers that all drivers would have run out of fuel if they stayed out for one more lap.

It could turn either way, but I'll go with:

Ferrari

small gap

Red Bull/McLaren
Mercedes


...for Bahrain, as Ferrari seemed relatively much better on 'slower' tracks so far. Mercedes' apparent choice of shorter wheelbase and new aero package could jump them into 2nd for the race though..

I don't think it's a coincidence that so many teams set these very similar laptimes on short runs on the final days. Those must've been qualy sims. Of course that doesn't mean everyone was running on 100% empty tanks, but assuming they were doing so is the only way to come up with an analysis of the times. Do you have a better suggestion?

Ahem... I think you are not aware that Stefan has not completed a single shakedown of their car, have no serious facilities, drivers or technical team. Honestly, what makes you think they can beat Toro Rosso even if they make it to the grid? Or keep up the development during the year?

Depending on the throttle that comes in the Stefan, given Toyota's recent issues, maybe the Stefan will be A LOT faster than even they want it to be

Once Merc have applied their major update I don't see a basis for separating the top 4 teams, in terms of their cars' basic pace. Maybe an order will emerge but atm I think it's going to come down to who does the best at the weekend - setups, use of data, and driving. Good Friday, good Qualy, and good raceday.

Fiddling around with corrections until your home boy comes out top isn't much use IMO, except for page hits.

I think people putting Mac and Merc behind haven't adjusted for what we saw on the last day of testing and for Merc's Bahrain update.

Maybe the guys with their 09 RE's will have a slight advantage? Massa, and (I assume) Webbo & Seb.