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Makarias
BRAND NEW CIRCUIT OMG OMG TRIPLED TIME SPANS THIS IS CRAAAZYYY!!
OK, let's calm down here...

Mount Fuji is 4563 long, using the civilized unit of metres.
Here is a description of the track layout, with a very long main straight, twisty final section but overall probably quite high average speed.



[b]What average speed some laptimes around Fuji would give:

Lap time [s]  Av. speed [km/h][/b]

70           234.669

72.5         226.577

75           219.024

77.5         211.959

80           205.335



[b]Average speeds for this year's pole laps:

GP     Av. speed [km/h][/b]

OZ     221.800

MAL     209.955

BAH     210.283

ESP     205.819

MON     158.782

CAN     207.373

USA     208.640

FRA     211.632

GB     231.353

EUR     202.655

HUN     197.686

TUR     220.050

ITA     254.336



Formula Nippon pole laptimes suggest that the average speed at Fuji is about 95% of

what it is at Suzuka. This could of course depend upon characteristics for different

racing series.



[b]Three latest poles at Japan-Suzuka:

Year  Driver       Pole time [s]  Average speed[/b]

2006  Massa         89.599        233.320  

2005  R Schumacher 106.106        197.022

2004  M Schumacher  93.542        223.485


How to enter: Just submit your guess for what the pole time will be, and who you think will take pole.
Ten position penalties are ignored (only) if they are due to disciplinary reasons.

Deadline:
Full entry is accepted only for entries submitted/edited before the start of first free practice.
Guesses entered or edited after first free practice will not get their driver guesses registered.
Final deadline is whenever I choose to register the entries; typically Friday evening CET. But always after first free practice. In case of me being absent and not able to register the entries in time, the absolute final deadline is the start of Saturday practice.

Scoring rules

-The best eight guessers (closest to the actual pole position time) Score points F1 style, 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1.

-Precision points are given to every participant whose guess was sufficiently close the actual pole position time according to this list:


     <-----------Time offsets----------->

Pts  Default   Modified Layout  New Track  [s]

10   - 0.050       - 0.100       - 0.150

8   - 0.100       - 0.200       - 0.300

6   - 0.200       - 0.400       - 0.600

5   - 0.400       - 0.800       - 1.200

4   - 0.600       - 1.200       - 1.800

3   - 0.800       - 1.600       - 2.400

2   - 1.200       - 2.400       - 3.600

1   - 2.000       - 4.000       - 6.000

The first race of the season counts as a Modified Layout unless it's brand new.
A track that wasn't used the previous season also counts as a Modified Layout.

-Driver Points are given for correctly guessing the driver to take pole position. The amount of points given depends on the current value of the driver, according to this list:


Pts   Recent qualifying results

5     0 front row starts in the previous five races

4     1 front row start in the previous five races

3     2 front row starts in the previous five races

2     3-5 front row starts in the previous five races


2007 standings after Belgium



[b]Three latest poles at Japan-Fuji:[/b]

BRAND NEW TRACK!



[b]Driver values:

Dri  val[/b]

Alon  2

Hami  2

Mass  3

Räik  3

REST  5



[b]2007 data:

                  Time    2006     2006 fastest  2007/2006  

GP   Pole  #2      (s)    pole(s)  race lap (s)     (%)       [/b]

OZ   Räik  Alon   86.072   85.229   86.045       100.989

MAL  Mass  Alon   95.043   93.840   94.803       101.282

BAH  Mass  Hami   92.652   91.431   92.408       101.335

ESP  Mass  Alon   81.421   74.648   76.648       109.073

MON  Alon  Hami   75.726   73.898   75.143       102.474

CAN  Hami  Alon   75.707   74.942   75.841       101.021

USA  Hami  Alon   72.331   70.832   72.719       102.116

FRA  Mass  Hami   75.034   75.493   77.111        99.392

GB   Hami  Räik   79.997   80.253   81.599        99.681

GER  Räik  Alon   91.450   89.819   92.099       101.816

HUN  Alon  Hami   79.674   79.599   83.516       100.094

TUR  Mass  Hami   87.329   86.907   88.005       100.486

ITA  Alon  Hami   81.997   81.484   82.559       100.630

BEL  Räik  Mass  105.994   ------   ------        ------

JAP                        ------   ------        ------

CHN                       104.360   97.586              

BRA                        70.680   72.162

My guess for Japan is 75.732 s by Lewis Hamilton.
Frogman
Here's my guess:

76.218 - Alonso
Makarias
Looking at the FNippon pole times a bit more closely, the speed difference would be somewhere in the 91.5%-95.5% range. So a bit of an indicator, but not extremely precise.
Apex
77.173 - Massa
sek
75.000 - Alonso
skylark68
76.920 Alonso

(Indebted to you Makarias for the arithmetic - thanks. Their site is full of dead links).
KWSN - DSM
1:19:711 - Kimi Raikkonen

cool.gif
scheivlak
Fernando Alonso 75.711

cool.gif
mimin
Massa 76.555
Kooper
75.326 Hamilton
estoril85
hamilton 81.774
Makarias
I'm changing my guess to 76.822 s by Fernando Alonso.
rodlamas
Hamilton 75.888
dnbn
84.323 Hamilton
Estwald
77.777 - Alonso
fisichella_2001
78.624 - F Alonso
LB
78.345 Massa
Zawed
Massa 77.582
shays
Raikkonen 77.888 seconds
Alapan
Raik: 82.000
Moanaman
Alonso - 77.890
Xig
Raikkonen - 73.651
an1res
72.000 Alonso
kismet
Räikkönen - 74.999
D82
76.543 - Raikkonen
THE HUMAN MAN
kimi Raikkonen - 1:16:855
brunopascal
Raikkonen - 75.100
italiansdoitbetter
hamilton 78.222
jomaizta
Alonso 76.333
boost
Raik 77.214
AcuraF1
Raikkonen 76.927
garth_b
69.851 Raikkonen
AussieF1
76.232 Alonso
Makarias
Well, no more entries... Late guesses by garth_b and AussieF1, so no driver guesses for them.
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