What if [x] had been the Title Decider instead of Brazil?

If you are anything like me, you are still coming down off the massive emotional highs and lows that yesterday’s race brought us (which ever way round the highs and lows were for you!).

It seemed to be a classic final race finale to the championship, with accusations of this, that and the other, and arguments about who deserved it more hinging on performance in this race alone.

Given that Brazil just happened to be the last race, I got to thinking how we might have viewed the other races this year, had they been the title decider instead. I found some surprises which you may find entertaining. Here’s my view:

Firstly, if Bahrain or France had been the last race, the title would have already been decided, so no comment.

The rest break down into Massa/Ferrari Throws it Away, Lewis Wins It, and That’s Interesting.

Massa/Ferrari Throws it Away:

Going into Australia as the title decider, the standings would have been Lewis 88, Massa 97. Lewis would have needed a miracle, which was promptly provided by Massa spinning like a top, and then breaking down from the seventh place that would have given him the title.

Into Malaysia as the final race, Massa would have been on 97 to Lewis’s 94. Can you imagine the arguments over the qualifying penalty handed to Hamilton if it had been the last race! Massa then choked and spun out of a championship place, while Hamilton just scraped the 4 points he needed for the title.

If Canada had been the last race, Massa would have trailed Hamilton by 5 points going into the race. Lewis then pulls his own choke move by punting himself and Kimi out of the race, handing the title to Massa, who then has to pit again for fuel because Ferrari screw up the safety car pitstop. Massa can only manage 4 of the 5 points he needs and is denied the title by, who else, Glock(!) by 1.3 seconds!

Going into Silverstone, Massa would have been leading by 9 points with Hamilton needing a miracle. The heavens open, and Massa starts his ballet routine, gifting the title to the new rainmeister, Lewis.

If Hungary had been the decider, then Massa’s engine blow with 3 laps to go would have been even harder for him to take than Lewis’s pass on Glock yesterday. I suspect there would have been even more – tainted title, he’s not worthy – type of statements if Hamilton had won in that fashion.

Ferrari would have been utterly castigated if Singapore had been the final race. They would have blown a 5 point lead and handed the title on a silver plate to Hamilton.

If Fuji had seen the deciding race, the controversy would have been magnified. Massa punting Lewis out in the title race, and then getting the drive through. His comeback drive would have been 7 seconds away from overtaking Vettel for the title, but we wouldn’t have known about the Bourdais penalty at the time.

Lewis Wins It:

If Turkey had been the last race, Lewis would have gone into it with a 3 point lead over Massa. With the Ferrari dominance he would need to beat at least one of them, and his 3 stop sprint to the title, accompanied by overtaking Massa duing the race would have been edge of the seat stuff.

Massa would have had a 3 point lead going into Monaco as the last race. With a Ferrari 1-2 on the Grid things would have looked bleak for Lewis. His puncture followed by the recovery strategy would have been mesmerising – but ultimately Kubica would win the title for him by keeping Massa in 3rd.

Lewis would have trailed Massa by 3 points going into Hockenheim. Can you imagine the tension of the post pitstop charge of Lewis – having to pass Massa and Piquet to win the title, and doing it with only a few laps to spare!

In Valencia, with a 3 point deficit, Massa would done all he could by winning, but Lewis’s dogged 2nd place would have been enough to win the title – aided of course by Kimi having a massive off day (and broken engine).

I think Lewis’s moves at Monza may have been seen in a different light had it been the title decider. However, trailing Lewis by 2 points going into the race, and seeing him Q15, it may have been seen as more of Massa missing an open goal to win the title.

Had China been the last race, Lewis would have gone in 1 point behind Massa. He would then have been lauded as Champion having completely dominated the race.

That’s Interesting:

Firstly, going into Spa, Lewis would have had a 5 point lead. Even with the penalty handing Massa the win, Lewis would still have been champion. I suspect if Spa had been the title decider the penalty would have been a much smaller issue – if it had even been awarded at all!

Lastly, if the final race had been Spain, Massa would have trailed Lewis by 3 points going in. With Lewis running in 3rd, Kimi would have pulled over from the lead and let Massa through to win the title!

Having said all that, I think it is still hard to beat the title deciding drama of Lewis’s last corner pass on Glock! Makes you think though, doesn’t it? It goes to show that deciding on who deserves the title more depending on one race performance is as arbitrary as where the last race of the season is run.

Shame there are too many options for a poll!

fascinating!

Really fun read, cheers dinky

Thats a great read

awesome compilation! all those potentially title-deciding situation are tantalising, but as you said, nothing could beat the sequence of events that actually did the deciding!

awsome

Great stuff, dinky.

Originally posted by dinky
If Canada had been the last race, Massa would have [been] denied the title by, who else, Glock(!) by 1.3 seconds!

Oh, the irony..!

It seemed to be a classic final race finale to the championship, with accusations of this, that and the other, and arguments about who deserved it more hinging on performance in this race alone.

Which is why we have a championship spread over several races.

Great thread.

You said it all.

It goes to show that deciding on who deserves the title more depending on one race performance is as arbitrary as where the last race of the season is run.

It seemed to be a classic final race finale to the championship, with accusations of this, that and the other, and arguments about who deserved it more hinging on performance in this race alone.

Which, by the way, is why I dislike World Championship deciding tournaments like the Football (Soccer) World Cup, Cycling World Championship, or the MLB World Series. These are too dependent on performance at that given time.

Fantastic read!

Brilliant read! Roll on 2009.

What a brilliant analysis - great way of looking at it.

And if Brazil had not been the decider, might Alonso have stayed out and gone for the win?

Originally posted by dinky

If Canada had been the last race, Massa would have trailed Hamilton by 5 points going into the race. Lewis then pulls his own choke move by punting himself and Kimi out

If Canada had been the last race then Massa would have pitted ahead of Raikkonen - he certainly would not be forced to wait. Then it is quite possible it would be Kubica alone standing at the end of pitlane.
Now there are three possible ways:
1. Hammilton hits Kubica (and both are out), Heidfeld wins and Massa second or third (and World Champion)
2. Hammilton overtakes Kubica and is black-flagged, Massa 3rd or 4th, but World Champion
3. Hammilton exits pits ahead of Massa, so is more relaxed and notices the red light. Then Hammilton overtakes Kubica (I am affraid he would be able to...) and wins as a World Champion.

Next year the finale will be at Abu Dhabi which is a completely unknown quantity.

Originally posted by dinky


Firstly, if Bahrain or France had been the last race, the title would have already been decided, so no comment.

Why would they arbitrarily end the season with many races to go? You think the championship should be decided back then and that the other races don't count? You think Massa deserves the title because he was in the championship lead at some point in the middle of the season?

^ talk about lack of reading comprehension skills

Originally posted by lustigson

Which, by the way, is why I dislike World Championship deciding tournaments like the Football (Soccer) World Cup, Cycling World Championship, or the MLB World Series. These are too dependent on performance at that given time.

Shush.... Bernie's latest idea the "Chase for the Cup, whoops WDC" - tomorrow's Autosport headline

Originally posted by Jones Foyer


Why would they arbitrarily end the season with many races to go? You think the championship should be decided back then and that the other races don't count? You think Massa deserves the title because he was in the championship lead at some point in the middle of the season?

I didn't quite set out my stall clearly enough. For the avoidance of any doubt, the premise was that as the order of the races is arbitrary, you sould simply swap any race with Brazil for a different title decider. So all the races would actually have taken place, and all the points accumulated, but a race other than Brazil would have been the last. I wasn't suggesting the championship should have been stopped mid season.

The reason France or Bahrain would have been irrelevant is that both were won by Massa, with Hamilton not scoring. So if either had been the final race (swapping positions with Brazil - all other races running), Massa would have gone into the race 98-87 down, or in other words, championship over.

All the gap figures quoted are the total each driver had for the whole year - BUT FOR the replacement 'final' race.

I'm not going to get snarky because I had to explain this to my wife as well. Must work on greater clarity in writing!

Originally posted by GrzegorzChyla


If Canada had been the last race then Massa would have pitted ahead of Raikkonen - he certainly would not be forced to wait. Then it is quite possible it would be Kubica alone standing at the end of pitlane.
Now there are three possible ways:
1. Hammilton hits Kubica (and both are out), Heidfeld wins and Massa second or third (and World Champion)
2. Hammilton overtakes Kubica and is black-flagged, Massa 3rd or 4th, but World Champion
3. Hammilton exits pits ahead of Massa, so is more relaxed and notices the red light. Then Hammilton overtakes Kubica (I am affraid he would be able to...) and wins as a World Champion.

Interesting idea. Don't they have a Massa rig and a Kimi rig though? So it wouldn't have mattered which order they pitted Massa in, he still wouldn't have received any fuel and would have had to stop again dropping him to dead last?

If I'm wrong about that, I'm not sure how they would have managed the switch of the cars. Even if you could overtake under the safety car, Massa had Alonso between him and Kimi. I suppose they could taken Kimi through the Pitbox, serviced Massa, and then wheeled Kimi back into the pitbox to service him.

They didn't manage to do that in Turkey 2006, when Schumi had to queue behind Massa, letting Alonso take 2nd place from him.

But of course, *facepalm*, they could just have left Kimi out on track.

Having said that, I think your second scenario - that Lewis blasts by Kubica and is DQ'd - is the most likely.

And in the unlikely event, that they keep Kimi on track and somehow manage to short-fill Massa so he can rejoin pitlane alongside Kubica... wow, I'll better not go into this... Would FIA have the guts to exlude him from championship a la 97?

Very interesting thread. Great stuff dinky - I think youve just started an annual tradition!

Originally posted by dinky
Having said that, I think your second scenario - that Lewis blasts by Kubica and is DQ'd - is the most likely.

Me too, but then in that case there would have been no 10-place grid penalty. (partly because Lewis is already DQ'd and hence punished, and partly because this is notionally the last race of the season)

Excellent work dinky - I think 2007 would make an interesting equivalent analysis - partly because there would be three title contenders at almost every race.

Great reading!

Very interesting perspective ;)

Best thread/OP since I started here

A lot of work + impressive memory!!

Originally posted by howardt
I think 2007 would make an interesting equivalent analysis.

Well, OK – 2007 since you asked nicely.

2007 breaks down a little differently to 2008. The relevant scenarios are - McLaren Wins/Loses it, Massa Wins it for Kimi, Kimi does Just Enough and That's Interesting.

McLaren Wins It
McLaren would have had the title in their pockets had the final race been at Australia, Malaysia, Monaco, GB, Monza or USA. In the first five instances, with Alonso leading Hamilton, he would have got the phone call to move over and let Hamilton through at the end of the race. Same thing for Hamilton in USA and Spain (once Kimi had retired).

For Australia and Britain it would have been difficult to give Alonso that radio call. In both cases he was chasing Kimi - if he passed him he'd be champ, if he stayed were he was Kimi would be champ and if he let Lewis past, Lewis would be champ. Same thing for Lewis chasing Massa in Spain with Alonso 3rd. Similarly in Malaysia and Monaco, Alonso would have been champ if Kimi had broken down on the last lap, and Lewis would have faced the same scenario in USA. How, and WHEN, would Ron have made the radio call in these situations? It would have to have been last corner stuff. And would Alonso or Hamilton have moved over anyway, to give the other the title?

McLaren Loses It:
Both Lewis and Alonso would have thrown the title away if China or Japan had been the last race. Given that Lewis would have gone into China 8 points clear of Alonso and 9 clear of Kimi, he may not been in as much of a rush to get into the world's smallest gravel trap. Alonso would have needed 3rd at least from Japan, and crashing out would have waved goodbye to that.

Lewis's Crash in qualifying for Europe would have been a massive deal had it been the last race of the season. He would have gone into the race 1 point behind Kimi, with Fernando out of the title race. Qualifying 10th and ending up in the gravel would have seemed like crowning Kimi as Champ. However, the crane would have swung into action (this board would have melted down) and Lewis would have been back in the action. Once Kimi retired on lap 34, the title would be there to win for Hamilton if he could only get 7th place. He finished 9th.

Lewis's puncture in Turkey would not have cost him the title. Leading Alonso and Raikkonnen 105-103-102 on the way into the race, the third place he was in when his tyre let go would have been good enough for the title. However, Massa would have pulled over for Kimi gifting him 10 points for the win and it would have ended 112-111.

Massa Wins it for Kimi
If both France and Belgium had been the title decider, then Massa taking points from the McLaren duo would have been enough to win it for Kimi. Interestingly, in Belgium the points would have been Lewis 104, Alonso 103, Kimi 100, going into the race. If Alonso had been persuaded to let Lewis past into 3rd, Lewis and Kimi would have been tied on 110 each, with Kimi taking the title on wins.

Kimi does Just Enough
If Canada had been the last race, the championship positions would have been Alonso 107, Kimi 106, Lewis 99, on the way in. Alonso would have been trying to simply finish in front of Kimi. Of course his on track meltdown would have hampered that. Incidentally, being passed by the Super Aguri wouldn't have cost Alonso the title - he could only have finished level with Kimi had he fended Sato off, with Kimi having more wins. Lewis would have done all he could by winning the race, but Kimi's 5th place (sound familiar) would have been enough to take the title. 6th would also have been enough , leaving him level with Hamilton but taking the title on wins.

In Bahrain, Kimi would have trailed Alonso by 1 point and lead Hamilton by 3 at the race start. 3rd place was just enough for him to take the title, with the on track positions preventing any kind of funny business.

That's Interesting:
In a similar vein to 2008, this relates to a penalty - guess where? With Hungary as the final race, Alonso would have led Kimi 104-102 with Hamilton on 99. If Alonso hadn't acted like a tool (justified or otherwise) in the pitlane during qualifying he would have lined up 1st or 2nd - crucially in front of Kimi. As long as he managed to finish in front of Kimi he'd've been champion, 2nd to Lewis's 1st in Hungary would have been enough.

Compared to 2008, with three drivers in with a shout at most 'final' races, there is room for much more controversy. How Ron would have got either of those two to move over for the other - especially when the one doing the moving was still in the title hunt at the time, is beyond me.

both seasons provide great reading, cheers

Originally posted by GrzegorzChyla


If Canada had been the last race then Massa would have pitted ahead of Raikkonen - he certainly would not be forced to wait. Then it is quite possible it would be Kubica alone standing at the end of pitlane.
Now there are three possible ways:
1. Hammilton hits Kubica (and both are out), Heidfeld wins and Massa second or third (and World Champion)
2. Hammilton overtakes Kubica and is black-flagged, Massa 3rd or 4th, but World Champion
3. Hammilton exits pits ahead of Massa, so is more relaxed and notices the red light. Then Hammilton overtakes Kubica (I am affraid he would be able to...) and wins as a World Champion.

I have to correct my scenarios. If it was last race of season then it would be Alonso leading/fighting for victory. Kubica would be trying to pass Sutil just before the larer is off and causes a SC...

Absolutely brilliant work - thanks!
Amazing that Mclaren had so many opportunities to win, but as you say - by the last race of that season would either driver have moved over to make the other champion ?

Did you know that there's someone has written a fictitious book based on an alternative 1994, where Ayrton lives? Maybe there's an emerging market for fictional alternative realities (for people who can't deal with their own?), regarding F1.

I missed this thread until pointed by the "top poster" thread, ingenious stuff dinky.

Very interesting thread. Great stuff dinky - I think youve just started an annual tradition!

I took last year off, because Button wrapped it up a race early and we did not have a title deciding show down. We certainly had one this year though. With four drivers in the mix it made it an interesting task to look at all the alternatives.

Bahrain Pre Race - VET, ALO, WEB, HAM - 244, 227, 238, 225
Vettel and Webber would have gone into the race 244 vs 238. Alonso would have been a long shot 17 points off Vettel. Vettel would have been safely on his way to the title before his car started to fail. With Webber having a shocker tucked up behind Button, Alonso all of sudden would have been staring the title in the face, before somehow Vettel managed to limp home in third - enough to take the title.

Australia 256, 240, 240, 232
Both Alonso and Webber were 16 points behind Vettel going into the race, and Vettel would have been looking set for the title until his car broke. Neither Alonso (spin at first corner) or Webber (poor tyre decision) could capitalise, and all the cameras would have been on Vettel in the pitlane, watching his title come to him as the other two failed to get the second place that would take it from him.

Malaysia 231, 252, 224, 232
Going into Malaysia Alonso had a commanding lead of 20 points over Hamilton, with Vettel and Webber even further back. With Alonso and Hamilton qualifying 19th and 20th Respectively, momentum would have swung in favour of the Red Bulls. With Alonso losing his engine with a couple of laps to go, the title would have been in the bag for Vettel. Don't feel too bad for Fred though, the 9th place he was running in when the engine let go was only good for 2 points - and Vettel would still have been champ 256 to 254. There would also be no end of conspiracy theories on this board about Webber "letting" Vettel into the lead going into the first corner. Team Orders! Team Orders!

China 248, 240, 238, 222
China would have been a bit of a rerun of Suzuka 2003, with Vettel trundling round in 6th, when he only needed a 7th place for the title. Hamilton would have been out of the title race before the start, so there would have no McLaren switcheroo. Alonso's jump start restricted him to a Fourth place finish, which with Vettel's poor afternoon, effectively cost Alonso the title.

Spain 241, 234, 217, 240
The race build up would have been dominated by Lewis -v- Vettel with them all but tied on points (V241, H240). Webber would have been all but out of contention (W217) before the race, so his domination of the weekend would have been almost irrelevant. All eyes would have been on which of Vettel or Hamilton would pass the chequered first. Hamilton passing Vettel at the stop would have been a title deciding moment ... until his tyre failed with a handful of laps to go. All eyes would have been on Webber - if he failed, Alonso would take the title on number of wins from Vettel. Webber, though, won, giving the title to Vettel, who joined him on the podium.

Monaco 238, 244, 217, 230
Alonso would have gone into Monaco defending a 6 point lead over Vettel. Webber would have been out of the Title race before the race, and would have been in defender role. All Vettel needed to to was win the race to be Champ, so Alonso's practice crash, and subsequent climb through the field may not have been as exciting as it seemed. All Red Bull had to do if Alonso got as high as fourth (he finished sixth) was to swap the front running Red Bulls.

Turkey 256, 248, 228, 215
Turkey would have turned out very differently if it had been the last race. Going in, both Webber and Hamilton would have been out of the title race between Vettel (256) and Alonso (248). With an 8 point gap, Vettel could afford to finish second to Alonso and still take the title. He could certainly afford to finish second to Webber with Alonso failing to make Q3, and generally having a shocker.

Canada 244, 237, 232, 215
Hamilton would have gone into Canada out of the title race. Vettel would have gone in leading Alonso by 7 points and Webber by 12. With Alonso passing Vettel with a much better Tyre strategy, Vettel would have been left thanking his lucky stars that the McLarens were dominant enough to keep Alonso in 3rd.

European 231, 248, 242, 222
Again, Hamilton would have been out of the title race by the time we got to Valencia. Alonso would have lead Webber by 6 points and Vettel by a massive 17. After THAT safety car incident, the title would have been lost to Alonso as he trundled around in 7th place stuck behind a slower car, with Vettel winning from Hamilton and Button (sound familiar?). The move by Kobayashi would have rubbed salt into the wound, but would not have affected the outcome.

Great Britain 250, 252, 217, 222
With Britain as the last GP, both Webber and Hamilton would have been out of the title race which would have been as close as Vettel on 250 and Alonso on 252. Vettel's pole would have set him up for the title, but with Alonso third - anything could happen. With Vettel's poor start, and Hamilton assisting the drama by puncturing his tyre, the title would have opened up for Alonso, until he overtook Kubica off the track and got sent to the Naughty Step. I suspect, however, that the team would have played it ultra safe, and given Vettel's plight would have told Fred to GIVE THE PLACE BACK. Because, if he had done so, he would have been Champion.

Germany 241, 227, 234, 228
Well now, Germany was controversial enough in the original timeline. Arriving at the Nurburgring, Vettel lead Webber by 7 points, with Hamilton 6 behind Webber and Alonso 1 behind Hamilton, or a massive 14 behind Vettel. With Massa leading Alonso away, would there have been any point in switching the Ferraris? No. Not with Vettel breathing down Alonso's neck.

Hungary 241, 234, 217, 240
The Hungarian GP would have seen Webber nearly out of the title race, 24 points behind his team mate. Vettel and Hamilton would have had 241 and 240 points respectively, and Alonso was Just behind on 234. Hamilton was running in 4th - no good for the title with Vettel in 2nd, when his Gearbox failed. Vettel's salvaging of 3rd place after his Drive Through was enough to pip the 2nd place finishing Alonso to the title.

Belgium 256, 252, 224, 215
Arriving in Belgium, both Webber and Hamilton were out of the title race between Vettel (256) and Alonso (252). Vettel, of course, self destructed into the side of Button, but with Alonso behind him at that stage, would he have tried the move on? The 8th place that Alonso was in when he ran out of talent and into the wall would not have been good enough to beat Vettel to the title. He needed 6th for that.

Italy 244, 227, 234, 240
Alonso would have trailed Vettel by 17 points coming into Italy. The race would really have been between Vettel and Hamilton (244 vs 240). If Hamilton had settled for Fourth behind Massa, he would have ended the year on 252 points. Vettel would have finished Fifth for 10 points and the Title on 254.

Singapore 238, 227, 227, 240
Hamilton would have arrived in Singapore leading the Championship by 2 points from Vettel and 13 from both Webber and Alonso. He would have been on 12 points for fourth when he had his coming together with Webber. With Vettel in second on 18 points, he needed to make the move.

Japan 231, 237, 224, 230
Going into Japan, a win would have been enough for Vettel, but Webber would need a win and Alonso finishing 5th or lower. Hamilton would have also needed the win. With the Red Bull dominant there would not have been too much drama - but the Qualifying and Race on the same day would have spiced up the title decider!

Korea 256, 227, 242, 222
Had Korea been the last race then Vettel's engine failure would not have been an issue. Alonso and Hamilton were out of the title race, meaning that as soon as Webber crashed out, Vettel won the Title (a la Hill 1996). His engine failure just removed the icing from the cake.

Brazil 231, 237, 224, 228
Brazil as the last race would have been pretty much identical to Japan. Dominant Red Bull car, 6 point gap to overhaul with a win for Vettel.

So, for me, the ones to watch would have been Australia (Vettel watching his title coming to him from the Pitlane), Malaysia (Ferrari throwing away a massive title lead in Wet Qualifying and a Dead Engine), Spain (Heartbreak for Lewis as his World Title is snatched away with the tyre failure) and Britain (Quicker thinking by Alonso/Ferrari would have given them the title). What surprised me was that most of the other incidents (Hamilton's crashes, etc) would not have been that dramatic in the final tally - Lewis would have needed to try the moves he tried or he would have lost the Title anyway.

dinky

Thank You dinky

Very interesting read, thanks. I also read the 2008 one.

I think it just proves the illogical analysis of judging an entire championship in a single race or event.

Plus the fact that they would have all run their races differently in each of those scenarios had it been the title decider.