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Guess the Pole 2021: Bahrain


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#1 Makarias

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Posted 17 March 2021 - 15:50

Welcome to the 2021 Guess the Pole season!
The season opener is scored as a modified layout, as always.
Many other races will also be scored that way as they weren't run in the exceptional 2020 season, plus we have two races scheduled that score as brand new. Lots to look forward to!

How to enter: Just submit your guess for what the pole time will be, and who you think will take pole.
Grid penalties are ignored if and only if they are due to disciplinary reasons.

Deadline:
Entries are accepted only if they are submitted/edited before First Free Practice.
Entries that are edited after the beginning of First Free Practice but before I have registered the entries will be ignored.

Scoring rules

-The best ten guessers (closest to the actual pole position time) Score points F1 style, 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1.

-Precision points are given to every participant whose guess was sufficiently close to the actual pole position time according to this list:

     <-----------Time offsets----------->
Pts  Default   Modified Layout  New Track  [s]
25   - 0.100       - 0.200       - 0.300
18   - 0.200       - 0.400       - 0.600
15   - 0.400       - 0.800       - 1.200
12   - 0.600       - 1.200       - 1.800
10   - 0.800       - 1.600       - 2.400
 8   - 1.000       - 2.000       - 3.000
 6   - 1.200       - 2.400       - 3.600
 4   - 1.500       - 3.000       - 4.500
 2   - 1.800       - 3.600       - 5.400
 1   - 2.500       - 5.000       - 7.500
The first race of the season counts as a Modified Layout unless it's brand new.
A track that wasn't used the previous season also counts as a Modified Layout.
A track that hasn't been used for the previous five seasons counts as a New Track.

-Driver Points are given for correctly guessing the driver to take pole position. The amount of points given depends on the current value of the driver, according to this list:
Pts   Recent qualifying results
18     0 front row starts in the previous five races
13     1 front row start in the previous five races
 9     2 front row starts in the previous five races
 6     3 front row starts in the previous five races
 4     4 front row starts in the previous five races
 3     5 front row starts in the previous five races

2020 final standings

Five latest poles at Bahrain:
Year  Driver       Pole time (s)
2020  Hamilton      87.264
2019  Leclerc       87.866
2018  Vettel        87.958
2017  Bottas        88.769
2016  Hamilton      89.493

Late 2020 front rows:
GP   Pole  #2  
EMI  Bott Hami
TUR  Stro Vers
BAH  Hami Bott
SKH  Bott Russ
ABU  Vers Bott

Driver values:
Dri  val
Bott   4
Hami   9
Vers   9
Russ  13
Stro  13
REST  18

2021 data:
                  Time    2020 PP  2019 PP  2018 PP  2021/2020  2021/2019  2021/2018
GP   Pole  #2      (s)      (s)      (s)      (s)       (%)        (%)        (%)
BAH                    0   87.264   87.866   87.958                                
EMI                    0   73.609   ------   ------               ------     ------
POR                    0   76.652   ------   ------               ------     ------
ESP                    0   75.584   75.406   76.173                                
MON                    0   ------   70.166   70.810    ------                      
AZE                    0   ------  100.495  101.498    ------                      
CAN                    0   ------   70.240   70.764    ------                      
FRA                    0   ------   88.319   90.029    ------                      
AUT                    0   62.939   63.003   63.130                                
GB                     0   84.303   85.093   85.892                                
HUN                    0   73.447   74.572   95.658                                
BEL                    0  101.252  102.519  118.179                                
NED                    0   ------   ------   ------    ------     ------     ------
ITA                    0   78.887   79.307   79.119                                
RUS                    0   91.304   91.628   91.387                                
SIN                    0   ------   96.217   96.015    ------                      
JAP                    0   ------   87.064   87.760    ------                      
USA                    0   ------   92.029   92.237    ------                      
MEX                    0   ------   74.758   74.759    ------                      
BRA                    0   ------   67.508   67.281    ------                      
OZ                     0   ------   80.486   81.164    ------                      
SA                     0   ------   ------   ------    ------     ------     ------
ABU                    0   95.246   94.779   94.794                                

2020 data:
                  Time    2019 PP  2018 PP  2017 PP  2020/2019  2020/2018  2020/2017
GP   Pole  #2      (s)      (s)      (s)      (s)       (%)        (%)        (%)
AUT  Bott  Hami   62.939   63.003   63.130   64.251    99.898     99.697     97.958
STY  Hami  Vers   79.273   63.003   63.130   64.251   125.824    125.571    123.380
HUN  Hami  Bott   73.447   74.572   95.658   76.276    98.491     76.781     96.291
GB   Hami  Bott   84.303   85.093   85.892   86.600    99.072     98.150     97.348
LXX  Bott  Hami   85.154   85.093   85.892   86.600   100.072     99.141     98.330
ESP  Hami  Bott   75.584   75.406   76.173   79.149   100.236     99.227     95.496
BEL  Hami  Bott  101.252  102.519  118.179  102.553    98.764     85.677     98.731
ITA  Hami  Bott   78.887   79.307   79.119   95.554    99.470     99.707     82.558
TUS  Hami  Bott   75.144   ------   ------   ------    ------     ------     ------
RUS  Hami  Vers   91.304   91.628   91.387   93.194    99.646     99.909     97.972
EIF  Bott  Hami   85.269   ------   ------   ------    ------     ------     ------
POR  Hami  Bott   76.652   ------   ------   ------    ------     ------     ------
EMI  Bott  Hami   73.609   ------   ------   ------    ------     ------     ------
TUR  Stro  Vers  107.765   ------   ------   ------    ------     ------     ------
BAH  Hami  Bott   87.264   87.866   87.958   88.769    99.315     99.211     98.305
SKH  Bott  Russ   53.377   ------   ------   ------    ------     ------     ------
ABU  Vers  Bott   95.246   94.779   94.794   96.231   100.493    100.477     98.976
My guess for Bahrain is 88.166 s by Lewis Hamilton.

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#2 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 17 March 2021 - 16:18

87.711 - Verstappen



#3 DutchQuicksilver

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Posted 17 March 2021 - 17:51

87.961 Max Verstappen


Edited by DutchQuicksilver, 20 March 2021 - 10:30.


#4 mark f1

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Posted 17 March 2021 - 20:40

Verstappen 87.511



#5 GTA

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Posted 17 March 2021 - 22:22

Verstappen 87.500



#6 rodlamas

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Posted 21 March 2021 - 00:06

Bottas 87.888

#7 KevR

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Posted 21 March 2021 - 12:42

Bottas 87.650

#8 Anderis

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Posted 21 March 2021 - 21:00

Hamilton 87.133



#9 thegforcemaybewithyou

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Posted 23 March 2021 - 19:59

Verstappen 87.478



#10 scheivlak

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Posted 24 March 2021 - 11:31

Verstappen 87.770



#11 M2000-5

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Posted 24 March 2021 - 20:25

87.431 Verstappen



#12 alekracing

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 04:32

Verstappen 87.639



#13 f1paul

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 11:34

87.212 Verstappen



#14 Bleu

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 18:15

Verstappen 87,076



#15 jimjimjeroo

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 20:23

Perez 86.898

#16 Brawn BGP 001

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Posted 26 March 2021 - 00:35

87.463 Verstappen



#17 Marklar

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Posted 26 March 2021 - 09:24

87.019 Verstappen

#18 Makarias

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Posted 26 March 2021 - 09:56

I change my guess to

88.012 s by  Max Verstappen.



#19 Makarias

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Posted 26 March 2021 - 09:57

Andy35 via chat:

87.330 Verstappen