Premonitions

We all surely know about some famous premonitions. I can remember three drivers that seemed to suspect something wrong was about to happen ( a premonition ? ).
In 1973,in the morning before the USA GP, is reported that François Cevert was very quiet, something unusual. When a mechanic asked him whether all was right, François simply said that it was a very nice day and that he wouldn't like to die in a day like that.
In 1978, Ronnie Peterson, when asked by a friend wy he was not fighting for the title, Ronnie told him that Chapman, Andretti and himself, before the season start, had come to a sort of gentleman's agreement by which it would be Andretti who would play the role of prime driver. Ronnie finished by saying that " he wouldn't like to be remembered as someone who doesn't honour his word ".
In 1994, Ayrton Senna was also in a very different mood. Just before the race, he talked for a long time with Prost. According to the frenchman then, they put to an end their former hostility.
I do not know whether these examples can be considered as being premonitions but, if not, they must be very close to being.
Does anybody know some other examples ?

Originally posted by WHITE

In 1978, Ronnie Peterson, when asked by a friend wy he was not fighting for the title, Ronnie told him that Chapman, Andretti and himself, before the season start, had come to a sort of gentleman's agreement by which it would be Andretti who would play the role of prime driver. Ronnie finished by saying that " he wouldn't like to be remembered as someone who doesn't honour his word ".

That's a premonition????

"Wouldn't like to be remembered" is merely a figure of speech.

Get a grip

I've read about the Cevert business and admittedly it's a bit spooky.

I'm sure Senna's mind was concentrated by Ratzenberger's death rather than any great premonition. The natural human reaction of "is it really worth it ?". Senna had shown his (secret) compassionate side in similar fashion after Martin Donnelly dreadful accident several years earlier. An illustration of his confidence of survival and success was, arguably, the Austrian flag that lay neatly furled in the cockpit of his Williams that day. I reckon the embryonic friendship with Prost was merely a reaction to the arrival of Schumacher as a serious rival (Senna perhaps identifying with how threatened Alain must have felt when he burst upon the F1 scene).

Peterson ? I like to think that he, like Pryce, Rosberg, G.Villeneuve and all other F1 chargers, lay awake at night worrying about how to set up the next pole lap rather than any thought about death or serious injury.

When it comes to premonition/superstition then Alberto Ascari must be on pole. So how was it that, after his Monaco swim, he ventured out onto the track at Monza on that 26th day of the month without his obligatory blue helmet ?

Originally posted by bill moffat

When it comes to premonition/superstition then Alberto Ascari must be on pole. So how was it that, after his Monaco swim, he ventured out onto the track at Monza on that 26th day of the month without his obligatory blue helmet ?

Because this is all utter bollocks?

How about 2 from Donald Campbell?

Supposedly he saw Sir Malcolm's face in the windscreen of the turbine Bluebird car before or in between runs while setting the LSR.

Also, the night before he died he drew some sort of card whiel playing with friends, which indicated to him that someone was going to "get the chop".

I hope I'm remembering this story correctly. Supposedly before the 1932 Avusrennen, a prognosticator wrote down two names on a slip of paper, sealed it, and said that one man on that slip would win and the other would die. Sure enough, after the race it was discovered that he was correct; Prince Lobkowicz was killed and von Brauchitsch won the race.

I had a vivid premonition 20 years ago that Keke Rosberg would be killed.

Still waiting. (looks at watch impatiently)

Seriously, there's loads of these things that are unprovable, plus loads of similar things that people do not remember cos they never came true.

I had a strange feeling someone would do a premonitions thread today.

Amon said that he was certain Bandini had a premonition of death, but this seems to have been no more than Lorenzo making comments appreciating the beauty of nature in the last few days of his life.

Gilles Villeneuve in early 1982 said that the Zolder track will be quite a good killer, but this is very obviously just another figure of speech.

I myself had a premonition (in a dream) in early 1994 of Senna dying in a crash, but in the dream the crash was at Hockenheim - had it been Imola, it would have really freaked me out when reality caught up.

On that fateful morning, Cevert reportedly told Tyrrell mechanic Jo Ramirez:

'I'll show them, just watch the time I'll do: Did you notice I'm driving the no.6 Tyrrell, chassis 006, engine no. 66? We're October 6th! It's my day!'

Translated from La mort dans mon contrat, by Jean-Claude Hallé. 1974: Éditions J'ai lu.

That being said, there are people (including on this BB) that have speculated that Cevert threw up in his helmet prior to his accident. Could he have been more quiet than usual because he was feeling unwell that morning?

Then, there is also the story of a former girlfirend going to see a psychic when his career began. She told her that he wouldn't see his 30th birthday. Cevert told his girlfriend that psychics were total BS, but he went to see the psychic anyway. She told him what she'd told his girlfriend and apparently Cevert came back shocked from his encounter with the psychic.

Watkins Glen 1973 was supposed to be his last Grand-Prix before turning 30.

As far as psychics and F1 drivers and concerned, Alain Prost recently told French TV (Auto Moto) that he saw an astrologer when he began his F1 career. In the interview, Prost said that a lot of the things she'd told him came true, including the fact that he would only be happy after he was 50 years old.

Senna was in a gloomy mood at Imola even before Ratzenberger died. He was questioning the wisdom of his move to Williams, especially as McLaren had managed to get a factory engine from Peugeot. The early FW14 was not to his liking at all (it was, by most accounts, an unmitigated piece of crap) and he'd failed to score points in the first two races. Schumacher had won in Brazil and at Aïda with a car that Senna was convinced had some form of traction control. When you read the immediate pre-Imola reports, it's amazing how down Senna was. I wouldn't call it a premonition of disaster, but Senna just wasn't enjoying his season.

Dears,
The thread was ( or should be ) about premonitions however, it seems some concepts are being misconfused.
Premonition is one's gift of foreseeing a given event whereas what others say will happen is clearvoyance. Superstition, is completely different. Friday the 13th is a superstition.
The drivers I mentioned had an unusual behavior, and it calls my attention that it was just before their tragic deaths. The fact that Gilles Villeneuve, Tom Price, etc. did not show any apparent uneasyness before their accidents do not mean anything.
Cevert business always called my attention and I only tried to find some other examples. Perhaps Peterson and Senna are not the best ones but quite unusual in them anyway.

Waste of bandwidth, my view.

While many of these are easily dismissed, none more so than those in the tabloidized media who are forever finding something prophetic in the "last interviews" of seemingly anyone they cover, I'll be the first to admit I've had a few strange experiences myself.

In September of 1977, I awoke two or three nights in a row from a dream where I saw a newspaper headline that read "------ DIES IN WRECK". I woke up in a sweat and very troubled by my recurring dream. So imagine my feelings when I picked up the paper Sunday morning and saw a headline "----- KILLED IN CRASH". This was the first fatality in the local track's history, so it was hardly a routine occurence.

I don't know if the other two count as "premonitions" or just strange reactions.

As a 13 year old, we were spending a month in Phoenix during the Western World Championships for Sprint Cars. We were two blocks away from the main emergency care center for Phoenix. Ambulances day and night. For some reason when one came flying by at about 10PM, my mom said I got real quiet and then looked up and somberly said "Something happened at the track". Turned out it had. Despite Sprint Car racing's terrible record during that era, it also was the first fatal accident in that event and the first in years at the track.

The only common bond is both the above driver and the driver who I had the dream about raced at the local track I attended as a kid, and both were likely at the meeting where I was voted a press pass as an 8 year old.

Similarly, while living in Bakersfield. A few blocks from the county medical center. A lot of ambulances coming and going, with nary a thought...other than that November morning in 1990 when I thought "Oh God, something happened out at the track". Turned out it was Billy Vukovich III. Why that thought entered my mind with all the traffic accidents and recreational mishaps out the canyon road, I don't know, but for whatever reason, that's precisely what I thought when I heard the ambulance. A second fatality at the track a couple of years later registered nothing, but then again, I don't know if there was any rushing ambulance with siren, passing nearby.

Make of it what you will, laugh it off, say poppycock, bs, whatever...but, that's what happened and the way it happened. I'm not superstitious and I am the first person to look for logical explanations.

Also, I'm not conveniently leaving out all the other times where I had these feelings and it turned out nothing happened, because these three times are the only times I've had those feelings.

Originally posted by E.B.
I had a strange feeling someone would do a premonitions thread today.

Originally posted by Jim Thurman

In September of 1977, I awoke two or three nights in a row from a dream where I saw a newspaper headline that read "------ DIES IN WRECK". I woke up in a sweat and very troubled by my recurring dream. So imagine my feelings when I picked up the paper Sunday morning and saw a headline "----- KILLED IN CRASH". This was the first fatality in the local track's history, so it was hardly a routine occurence.

I don't know if the other two count as "premonitions" or just strange reactions.

In a somewhat similar vein...I remember seeing in an Austin, TX bookstore around the 12th of May 1994 the Imola preview issue of Autosport with a cover headline reading "IS IT CRUNCH TIME FOR SENNA AT IMOLA?"

The only weird one I had was when Sky News announced that a NASCAR driver had been killed and my immediate thought was that it was JD McDuffie. And it was.

The thing is I wouldn't even have known that he was there, or had qualified, in those pre-internet days. It was only about his 4th qualification of the year.

I can rationalize that I had followed JD through the season on Screensport as much as possible, as he was an old-timer and staunch privateer, and that if there was going to be a car problem causing a crash it would be likely to be on an underfinanced car, but even so...

Then again, how many other times has there been news of fatalities or serious injuries and I have had no inkling at all or "guessed" wrongly? I should suggest every other time it has ever happened. Law of averages I should get one right.

Originally posted by E.B.
I had a strange feeling someone would do a premonitions thread today.

And even stranger, I just KNEW that someone would make a remark like that on a thread about premonitions...........

Sorry, but I think the idea of premonitions is complete hogwash. Yes, I can well believe that sometimes people have days in which they feel negative, or that the vibes are bad, or that the biorythms are all wrong...all that kind of thing, but premonitions....I repeat, hogwash.

Carlos Ruetemann undoubtedly had a bad vibe day when he produced a woeful performance in the race that could have won him the world championship. He might have thought he had a premonition that it just wasn't going to be his day - but he didn't really.

I had feeling you'd say that............

After the 1966 GP at Brands, Raymond Baxter said to Barlini that the man who wins at Monza will be WDC, and Barlini said "I am the man!".............he was wrong.

Oops, wrong thread...........


The practise for the 1960 International Trophy at Silverstone was on Friday 13th IIRC, and according to Bruce McLaren's 'From the Cockpit' nobody wanted to go out, especially since it was damp............then Harry Schell had his fatal crash.



In early 1997 when Damon Hill was struggling to even qualify the Arrows, I dreamt he got a third on the grid...............which he did six months later in Hungary; wish I'd put a few bob on it. Sadly, I can't seem to get into the same mental software regarding Lotto numbers.......


Paul M

Not that I really want to contribute to this sort of fluff, but TNF'ers might want to visit some of these links:

http://skepdic.com/precog.html

http://www.randi.org...arch/index.html

(the prize remains up for grabs)

http://www.skeptic.com/

Go where the evidence takes you.

All people have a tendency to notice events, especially the dramtic ones, that they in hindsight think they had a premonition about - the zillion events where prior thoughts or feelings were off-the-mark or unremarkable are comfortably ignored. This process of human perceptual error is called confirmation bias, and is also associated with wishful thinking and the post hoc, ergo propter types of fallacies. Such errors of perception and reasoning are also primary sources for the origin of religion, astrology and other superstitions, including so-called "alternative and complimentary" medicine.

Precognition, like time travel, is a logical paradox, in fact a logical impossibility. If you can foretell an event, then you can prevent it, and then you wouldn't have foreseen it in the first place...

[/rant over]

There's also skepdic which is a valuable debunking resource.

Gotcha!lready had that one at the top of my list!;)

Premonition is the feeling that something ( usually bad ) will happen however, it does not help you prevent it because one do not now how it will happen.
In ancient formula 1 days, dying in the track was, unfortunately, something quite usual so it is not surprising that drivers were specially not at ease before the races but, Cevert's business seemed to be beyond the anxiety one could expect he was suffering from and that, for sure, he had to suffer from before that fatal day. This is, perhaps, the thin line between being affraid of a quite probable danger ( which is perfectly understandable ) and an unexplainable certainty that something bad is about to happen.
I was sure this thread would not please some members but this certainty was not a premonition at all. I deeply respect their points of view but I simply do not share them.

Originally posted by ensign14
Law of averages I should get one right.

Isn't this the point? How many other times did those drivers have "feelings that something...will happen" and nothing actually did?

Originally posted by WHITE
Premonition is the feeling that something ( usually bad ) will happen however, it does not help you prevent it because one do not now how it will happen.

Premonition this : P L O N K !

(smiley face)

Not that I'm particulary interested in premonitions myself, but I do find it sad that the childish antics of a few are spoling this thread.

If you don't like it, don't read it - it really is that simple.

So come on chaps, unless you have something to contribute other than 'this is bollocks' or 'Premonition this', I suggest you get up those stairs to Bedfordshire now before Mummy discovers that you've been surfing on Atlasf1 again way beyond your agreed curfew of 21.00 hrs.

Thankyou very much dear deangelis86. What you have just said is what I wanted to say but, as a newcomer I did not dare telling the veterans what they should or should not do.
Best regards,

I don't believe in premonitions either.

When a driver, or anyone else for that matter, is killed those close to them remember the last things they said as it is all they have to hang on to. It is a small step from there to giving the words special meaning. Who remembers what Senna, Cevert, Peterson or any other river said on the previous ten race day mornings? Given that there had been a fatal accident the day before, it is natural that Senna would have been more on edge than usual. Particularly as Ratzenberger's death may have been the first he had encountered.

What people are trying to tell you is that they also think that premonitions are a load of codswallop..

Originally posted by deangelis86
Not that I'm particulary interested in premonitions myself, but I do find it sad that the childish antics of a few are spoling this thread.

If you don't like it, don't read it - it really is that simple.

So come on chaps, unless you have something to contribute other than 'this is bollocks' or 'Premonition this', I suggest you get up those stairs to Bedfordshire now before Mummy discovers that you've been surfing on Atlasf1 again way beyond your agreed curfew of 21.00 hrs.

Fans Of Irony Take Note.

Originally posted by Frank S
Fans Of Irony Take Note.

3 one liners so far from you and counting.

Thank you for your continuing intelligent contribution to this thread Frank

Can we maintain an adult ambience here, please?

From a personal perspective - and despite not really *believing* in such things - I have nevertheless experienced a couple of rather weird 'premonitions' myself...

I had an unusual, lengthy, telephone conversation with Jo [Gartner] roughly three weeks before Le Mans 1986. He pretty much insisted that I be at the 24 Hours, which was odd because he knew that a) I was a bit stuck for cash, and b) I'd always made it to his races - in particular the important ones - without any prompting.

In fact I was so surprised by this that I rang my mother straight after, and she agreed it was 'out of character'. The only thing we could think of to explain his strange attitude was the fact that his fiancee Doris hated the race and would need some company, and so that was to be my role.

And the rest, sadly, is history...

Another weird experience involved a dream I had one Saturday morning (circa 1987) about an empty-ish Boeing 747 I was 'on' which crashed into a motorway underpass at night somewhere in the USA. In fact it was so vivid that I told my staff about it on the Monday morning.

Imagine my shock, therefore, when the early morning news - on the following Wednesday, I think it was - covered the story of a freight 747 carrying horses which had crashed onto a Mexican motorway and taken out a bridge in the process. Not exact, I appreciate, but close enough to be bloody scary.

And the reactions which I, my mother (a total non-racing person) and a professional driver friend all admitted to having in the immediate aftermath of Senna'a accident were identical. And rather unusual too.

Originally posted by deangelis86
Thank you for your continuing intelligent contribution to this thread Frank

It's a thankless job, but someone's got to do it. (smiley face)

Twinny,

Thanks for sharing those interesting accounts. It's the psychology of experiences like that that make some people believe they are psychic! I wonder whether you would've recalled Jo's out-of-character action if he hadn't perished at Le Mans that year? I suspect that when dealing with racing, we've all got, or had, that little hidden fear somewhere that drivers we know and love are, in fact, more likely to die racing than from old age, and thus we associate any unusal behaviour with possible impending disaster - fear is a part of racing whether we recognize it or not.

As for the 747: Did the event happen before or after you dreamt about it?

Not exactly the same, but when I was a "yoof" and working as a mechanic in euro and world championship motorcycle racing, I discovered to my horror that anytime I made a special effort to wish a rider luck before a race they either crashed or broke (always without the dire consequences noted elsewhere in the thread) so I had to stop. And to this day a never wish anyone luck before a race.

Mo.

From "All Arms and Elbows"

"Air travel is rather tiresome most of the time and I knew that soon after landing in San Francisco, I would again be on my way to Seattle and another motor race in a new car, amongst old friends.

This time, however it was different. For no reason, I felt uneasy. Ever since we had left New York, I had had this odd feeling about the coming race. Suddenly I was convinced that something was going to happen to me. I suppose you might call it a premonition."

Of course Innes went on to have a huge smash at the subsequent North West Pacific Grand Prix.

Originally posted by Twin Window
Can we maintain an adult ambience here, please?

Why not move this to the Psychic Hotline Forum or the Padlock Club?

To say this this is all basically utter nonsense and complete poppycock -- to say nothing of a clossal waste of time and electrons -- insults both nonsense and poppycock by that comparison.

For lack of a better word, premonition, has saved my life.

In 1976 my friends and I took our Datsun B210s for a rainy trip to the USGP at Watkins Glen. The rain was relentless and the wipers on my car were just not behaving. We stopped on the side on Route 17 and began to try and repair the wipers using the light from headlights of my friend's car. For reasons unknown to me, I asked my friend to step out from between the two cars for a minute and we both took the wiper into what was darkness. A milisecond later, his car was struck by a drunk driver! Had we remained where we were, we would have been crushed between the two cars.

Call it what you will, but there was no reason why we should have stepped out from between those two cars - none !! ..... but we did !!

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Twin Window
[B[QUOTE]]Can we maintain an adult ambience here, please? [/QUOTE]

Thank you very much for your efforts, Twin Window. However, I am afraid that to keep an adult ambience, we should first wait for those who are still attached to their pacifiers to grow up.

Originally posted by WHITE
However, I am afraid that to keep an adult ambience, we should first wait for those who are still attached to their pacifiers to grow up.

You talking to me?

Sorry, it was supposed to be, "You talking to me, cowboy?"

I'm afraid I can't remember all the details, but I once read a story about how a driver who was watching the 1955 Le Mans from the grandstand had a premonition that something awful was going to happen, ducked, and as a result avoid flying debris. I think it was Phil Hill, but could be wrong.

Can anyone confirm?

John

Originally posted by Keir

Call it what you will, but there was no reason why we should have stepped out from between those two cars - none !! ..... but we did !!

Hmm... that reminds me of a very similar scenario which I found myself in.

My [then] fiancee and I were in my car on the way to my flat in Teddington and I stopped at the traffic lights as they were red. (For those with local knowledge, these lights are the ones on the crossroads between the Kingston-Twickenham main road, and the Teddington to the Lock road once you've passed the Royal Oak on the right, and are heading for the [old] Thames Television studios.

There wasn't another car around - literally - and when the lights changes to green I began to accelerate. And then, for no reason whatsoever, I stopped dead! Before I'd even had chance to wonder why I'd done that, a Triumph Dolomite Sprint appeared from the [blind to me] right hand side and sped at unabated pace straight through the lights (which, of course, were on red for him). And all that happened in a heartbeat...

There is no doubt whatsoever that had I not inexplicably stopped, I would have taken a straight hit at 90 degrees in the driver's door, wiping us both out in all likelyhood.

And now I've remembered something else! Bugger...

Originally posted by HDonaldCapps


Why not move this to the Psychic Hotline Forum or the Padlock Club?

To say this this is all basically utter nonsense and complete poppycock -- to say nothing of a clossal waste of time and electrons -- insults both nonsense and poppycock by that comparison.

Some time ago I had a premonition that you'd always be bitter and twisted - certainly have no reason to doubt it

Back on topic Premonitions are very real...but only if your mind is open to them.

before every GP on tv i have the premonition that it will be dull . before every champcar i have the premonition that paul tracy will do something stupid . spooky

I'm not the least bit surprised by the turn in this thread. I also feel I should post this before the thread gets shut down.

The links to The Amazing Randi's sites...while he does a great hob of debunking charlatans and fraud, there are times it goes a bit too far.

That's the problem I have with the modern skeptic. I am skeptical of many things, come down clearly on the side of science, yet...

Exactly when did being a skeptic become synonymous with being stubbornly closed minded and discrediting anyone and anything else?

To automatically and instantly chalk up all "premonitions" as being the work of a trick of memory (confirmation bias) is every bit as ridiculous and preposterous as some of the claimants. There also is an elitist and imperical tone to it all.

I have no doubt many of these cases can be explained by "confirmation bias", particularly those involving great traumas (there's a whole different set of dynamics involved with memory and traumatic experiences), but it appears as if the skeptics assume (they're skeptics and they don't know the word assume?) and proceed following their narrow, little lines. Exactly how is that helpful and a useful approach? I write this even cutting them some slack for potentially being wearisome over fighting the same windmills over and over again, something to which I can truly relate.

In my personal example, I can guarantee these "dreams" came the week before. Not after the fact. Keep in mind, I am not one of these weak minded, easily impressed, weak willed individuals that the skeptics seem to assume everyone that experiences these sort of things are. My memory is still quite spectacular and I have great recall, something I share here and is proven beyond reproach. I would gladly undergo any examinations or tests to support what occurred, but now the skeptics would dismiss it through the passage of time, and I have no doubt they would have come up with some way to dismiss it had I been on their doorstep the following day (see "confirmation bias").

As far as "If you can foretell an event, then you can prevent it, and then you wouldn't have foreseen it in the first place"...the fact that I had these two dreams, on back to back nights bothered me, but I had no reason to suspect the event would occur, so why attempt to do anything about it?. What was I going to do?, call up this fellow and hysterically say "Don't race Saturday night"?. Yeah, right. I simply thought it odd, dismissed it and then was stunned to see the newspaper that Sunday morning. I experienced no other details other than seeing a newspaper headline - actually a second line, smaller headline, which is precisely how it appeared in print that Sunday morning edition. Yes, I can see the response now, "oooh, scary"

I don't claim to be "psychic", nor believe in 99+% of what people call "psychic phenomenon", I just had these few strange moments (and two others non-racing related that I'm sure the skeptics would find a way to explain away without even hearing the details, both involving vivid detail of areas I'd never travelled through - and no, I hadn't seen pictures of such banal, yet unique, items. These places I went to were hardly travelogue material , so it's not that I had seen these things and subconsiously absorbed them). True poppycock are these media relayed "prophecies" where every person's final interview has some amazing foretelling statement.

Poppycock, bollocks and pure old bullshit is often a two way street

Originally posted by Bonde
Precognition, like time travel, is a logical paradox, in fact a logical impossibility. If you can foretell an event, then you can prevent it, and then you wouldn't have foreseen it in the first place...

But what if you have a precognition experience and don't tell anybody about it because you're a skeptic? I had this dilemma once and realised it immediately when it happened....

OTOH, the last few years I often have a rather nervy feeling before the Monaco GP that this time it'll get really wrong in the tunnel and it never happened like that.

Condor,

"Premonition" is a psychological experience phenomenon we all encounter from time to time - it has more to do with our perception of the context of the actual event - especially after the event. Notice how few, if any, people actually record their premonitions prior to an event - I've never heard of a single case - recording premonitions always is always done after the event, where our dreams and memories are very susceptible to 'alterations' to fit what we want it to fit.

Premonitions can also be caused by unconscious reaction to external stimuli and association to memories - which probably accounts for the life-saving experiences like Keir and Twinny described above. Such traits and faculties are 'hardwired' into us through evolution - part of our survival kit. If we'd had to react consciuosly to every potential threat encountered since we lived in caves we would not have survived.

If, however, premonitions were somehow actual knowledge of future events conveyed to us by some supernatural agent (e.g. a deity), anyone who can demonstrate evidence of that being the case can collect a cool million US Dollars at the following address: http://www.randi.org...arch/index.html

Some experiences can be very 'spooky', but they all have mundane explanations. If psychic phenomena were what some purport them to be (i.e. supernatural, paranormal), our World would be totally different from what it actually is - above-average 'psychics' would rule the World and all lotteries would have gone bankrupt ages ago, to name but a few examples...

Anyway, I agree with those who feel this fluff thread belongs in another forum - hence the link above. I'm leaving it (I think).

Originally posted by Jim Thurman
I'm not the least bit surprised by the turn in this thread. I also feel I should post this before the thread gets shut down.

The links to The Amazing Randi's sites...while he does a great hob of debunking charlatans and fraud, there are times it goes a bit too far.

That's the problem I have with the modern skeptic. I am skeptical of many things, come down clearly on the side of science, yet...

Exactly when did being a skeptic become synonymous with being stubbornly closed minded and discrediting anyone and anything else?

To automatically and instantly chalk up all "premonitions" as being the work of a trick of memory (confirmation bias) is every bit as ridiculous and preposterous as some of the claimants. There also is an elitist and imperical tone to it all.

I have no doubt many of these cases can be explained by "confirmation bias", particularly those involving great traumas (there's a whole different set of dynamics involved with memory and traumatic experiences), but it appears as if the skeptics assume (they're skeptics and they don't know the word assume?) and proceed following their narrow, little lines. Exactly how is that helpful and a useful approach? I write this even cutting them some slack for potentially being wearisome over fighting the same windmills over and over again, something to which I can truly relate.

In my personal example, I can guarantee these "dreams" came the week before. Not after the fact. Keep in mind, I am not one of these weak minded, easily impressed, weak willed individuals that the skeptics seem to assume everyone that experiences these sort of things are. My memory is still quite spectacular and I have great recall, something I share here and is proven beyond reproach. I would gladly undergo any examinations or tests to support what occurred, but now the skeptics would dismiss it through the passage of time, and I have no doubt they would have come up with some way to dismiss it had I been on their doorstep the following day (see "confirmation bias").

As far as "If you can foretell an event, then you can prevent it, and then you wouldn't have foreseen it in the first place"...the fact that I had these two dreams, on back to back nights bothered me, but I had no reason to suspect the event would occur, so why attempt to do anything about it?. What was I going to do?, call up this fellow and hysterically say "Don't race Saturday night"?. Yeah, right. I simply thought it odd, dismissed it and then was stunned to see the newspaper that Sunday morning. I experienced no other details other than seeing a newspaper headline - actually a second line, smaller headline, which is precisely how it appeared in print that Sunday morning edition. Yes, I can see the response now, "oooh, scary"

I don't claim to be "psychic", nor believe in 99+% of what people call "psychic phenomenon", I just had these few strange moments (and two others non-racing related that I'm sure the skeptics would find a way to explain away without even hearing the details, both involving vivid detail of areas I'd never travelled through - and no, I hadn't seen pictures of such banal, yet unique, items. These places I went to were hardly travelogue material , so it's not that I had seen these things and subconsiously absorbed them). True poppycock are these media relayed "prophecies" where every person's final interview has some amazing foretelling statement.

Poppycock, bollocks and pure old bullshit is often a two way street

Excellent post
I'm all for debunking the charlatans and I often make fun of make-believe stories people tell me as truth, but to me skepticism means also keep an open mind to all phenomena, however strange they may be.

there was a time long ago when every time a racedriver was kill in a accident there was always somewhere in the world a tabloid to pull out of the hat a theory about kids who crossed the track just in front of the cars and the driver heroically crash to spare the kids. it was a kind of "cliché "of the time . the premonition thing is another one of those romantic litterary mechanism use by biographer and journalist(the bad one) to do a better story

Sorry folks,

as I was typing other responses came in, so my reply seems somewhat out of context now.


Jim,

I don't know what your 'beef' is with skeptics - essentially all they (we) are saying is: Simply provide evidence for what is claimed and they (we) will believe anything. However, if what is claimed would require rewriting pretty much all scientifically gained knowledge, and/or is a logical impossibility, then that evidence needs to be pretty impressive. What's wrong with that?

One good way to really shake up skeptics would be for someone one day to walk away with the JREF prize. No-one, including people claiming powers of precognition, has come even close yet. Do you not wonder why that is? Yes, we should all keep an open mind, but not so open our brains fall out. And we should also be open to the possibility that weird experiences with 99.99999% certainty have mundane explanations and that our powers of perception often can and will fool us, for perfectly good, natural reasons - even if incredibly spooky. Scatterd anecdotes as evidence of the supernatural are not, by a long shot, enough reason to scrap all current scientific knowledge (which is readily proven to be 'true'), including the theory of evolution and the second law of thermodynamics, which are backed up by overwhelming evidence. If humans had faculties for such as precognition they would not appear flukey but be 'in your face' - otherwise the theory of evolution must be proven wrong - and that would take quite an effort!

Personally I have no reason whatsoever to doubt your experiences. I do, however, have absolutely no reason to believe that they were, or were caused by, any supernatural or paranormal phenomenon, simply because to the best of my knowledge, not one single person in the history of mankind has provided one single shred of evidence for the existence one single paranormal or supernatural phenomenon. But I'd love for some paranormal phenomena to be true.

I believe that if, say, precognition were a natural (i.e. real) phenomenon it would have become prevalent due to its enormous evolutionary potential, we would have had a much better understanding of it (scientific, cultural etc.) by now - to the extent that we would actually make positive use of it, for instance in countering crime and terrorism.

Anyway, this thread belongs in the JREF forums (where I sometimes spend some time, too - it really is very educational) - not on TNF- so puleese don't tempt me anymore!;)

Originally posted by Jim Thurman

Poppycock, bollocks and pure old bullshit is often a two way street

No, really: what, exactly, does that mean?


"The contemporary proliferation of bullshit also has deeper
sources, in various forms of skepticism which deny that we can
have any reliable access to an objective reality, and which
therefore reject the possibility of knowing how things truly are.
These antirealist doctrines undermine confidence in the value of
disinterested efforts to determine what is true and what is false,
and even in the intelligibility of the notion of objective inquiry.
One response to this loss of confidence has been a retreat
from the discipline required by dedication to the ideal of
correctness to a quite different sort of discipline, which is
imposed by pursuit of an alternative ideal of sincerity .

"Rather than seeking primarily to arrive at accurate representations
of a common world, the individual turns toward trying to provide honest
representation of himself. Convinced that reality has no inherent
nature, which he might hope to identify as the truth about things, he
devotes himself to being true to his own nature. It is as though he
decides that since it makes no sense to try to be true to the facts,
he must therefore try instead to be true to himself ... "

" ... Our natures are, indeed, elusively insubstantial
—notoriously less stable and less inherent than the
natures of other things. And insofar as this is the case,
sincerity itself is bullshit."

—ON BULLSHIT
Harry G. Frankfurt

© 2005 Princeton University Press
ISBN 0-691-12294-6 (alk. paper)


To paraphrase one of Dr. Frankfurt's underlying themes:
The Liar recognizes and is concerned with the relationship
among what he says, what is true, and what is false; the
Bullshitter doesn't care . All he is interested in is whether
or not his listeners are buying his act.

It seemed to me this thread, innocently or otherwise, played
on that theme. It is a clever exercise, a cat's-cradle diversion
for the mind, and surely not a serious subject for such a somber
collection of objective fact-collectors as convene here.
Almost as much fun as retelling fairy tales,
and easily as instructive.


I'm surprised that some respectable members have
betrayed their credulity. Disappointed, also, by the
apparent belief that throwing high-flown verbiage
at a circumstance—albeit sincere verbiage—
will impress and carry the day. Más caca de vaca.


And how did that information about my bedtime get out? Nobody knows that.


Now, then; someone sing me that Guten Sweeten Song again.


Sincerely,

--
Frank S

(edit: typos)

A good deal of intellectual argument here which is very healthy.

What is entirely unhealthy is the way that a relatively new member has had his thread (and a perfectly valid one) hijacked by members of the "Senior Council" who have riddled it with schoolboy humour and some exceptionally unfunny one-liners.

Those who moan at TNF being trivialised and de-valued should perhaps take a longer look at their own recent contributions. As others have observed there are plenty of other threads that they can go and play in.

Tolerance, ladies and gentlemen. If this current trend continues there are many TNF members, new and old, who will look elsewhere for their motor sporting dialogue, and that is NOT healthy.