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Belgian Grand Prix Early Discussion Thread - **Here Comes The Rain!**


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#51 Yellowmc

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 00:08

I'm a fan of Raikkonen but he isn't the best wet weather racer, he does however seem to be able to manage his tyres well enough not to fall into certain traps and in changeable conditions does come out well on occasions. Of course, he does have his brain farts too.

Spa looks good for Ferrari as the race is predicted to be dry (or atleast drier than friday and saturday).

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#52 ashnathan

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 01:23

Originally posted by wingwalker



Hm, I thought "what is up with people watching 2005 race? Do they all tape every race?". A little search, and TA-DA, Full race on Youtube. This is part 4, starting with Brundle's grid walk, parts 1-3 are ITV pre show.


I have every race (bar a few that have gone missing) taped on VHS since Australian GP of 2000. And i also have the Luxembourg GP from 98 on vhs aswell. Personal library and i once a day or once every 2 days i sit there looking at them asking myself which ones id like to watch, at the moment ive been watching a few from 2005, and i always have a soft spot for the 2000 season even if mika didnt win the championship, i love the mp4/15.

#53 ashnathan

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 01:24

Originally posted by stevvy1986
depends on your definition of wet-belgium 2005 and china 2007 both started wet enough for wet tyres,but dried up during the race,so.....depends


He ran the entire race at Spa on inters, race track was classed as wet, dry tires only became the better tyre 4 laps from the end.

#54 Jakob

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 09:13

Originally posted by D.M.N.
With six races left, you would be considered a fool if you ruled Räikkönen and Kubica out of the championship race.


I'm a fool then, but Kubica is as out of the race as Barrichello.

Seriously. Mathematically he may be not so far from Ham, but that means little. BMW doesn't look like being able to fight for wins under anything but exceptional conditions and for K to have a chance, 3 other top drivers with better cars should fail on a constant basis.

I'd even go so far as to say that Kimi is out of the race too if he doesn't get a huge win in Spa.

#55 UPRC

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 09:48

Whether or not there is rain at Spa does not matter too much to me, as I expect a blinding performance by Kimi no matter the conditions. After all, Spa is supposedly his best/favourite track of the year.

#56 eoin

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 10:03

Originally posted by Laffite
100% chance of rain..

..for the Fuji race

Just kidding. For a dry Spa I'll bet Raikkonen will make it. Even starting from a lame 4th-5th-6th position.

For a fully wet race, I'll keep my bet

For a changeable weather race, 100% chance of a NON Ferrari win.


I would say that opposite. If it is a full wet race i think hamilton will win quiet easily, however if it starts wet but dries then kimi has a good chance of a win as he looks after his tyres better.

#57 emburmak

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 10:14

Originally posted by UPRC
Whether or not there is rain at Spa does not matter too much to me, as I expect a blinding performance by Kimi no matter the conditions. After all, Spa is supposedly his best/favourite track of the year.


The problem is that KR has been 'blinding' on too few occasions this year. I doubt that LH & FM would allow him to have an easy wkd. :cool:

#58 Ferrim

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 12:12

Please don't link to Youtube F1 videos. Specially videos of old races, because if they take them down it's unlikely that someone will upload them again.

If we have a full wet race I can see Hamilton winning by a countrymile. Great wet driver on a great car. In changing conditions everything is possible. On dry weather I have to go for Massa, he's had several fantastic drives recently.

@Jakob: last year with 6 races to go Kimi was 19 points down. Anything can happen in F1, and it usually does! :)

#59 wingwalker

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 12:24

Originally posted by Ferrim
Please don't link to Youtube F1 videos. Specially videos of old races, because if they take them down it's unlikely that someone will upload them again.
)




From my experience, and I link and upload on youtube all the time, it's all good unless you link them on blogs and specific video threads.

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#60 Atreiu

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 13:39

Originally posted by eoin


I would say that opposite. If it is a full wet race i think hamilton will win quiet easily, however if it starts wet but dries then kimi has a good chance of a win as he looks after his tyres better.


The Monaco GP makes me think Hamilton has learned a thing or two about tyre management in the wet this season.

Regardless of the conditions, I see Kimi as a very strong favourite. Unless the track is freezing and the Ferrari's can't get any heat at all in the tyres. :p

#61 Jakob

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 15:12

Originally posted by Ferrim
@Jakob: last year with 6 races to go Kimi was 19 points down. Anything can happen in F1, and it usually does! :)


How's the saying? Lighting doesn't strike twice and all of that...

Of course, everything can happen, but I don't foresee McLaren self-destroying themselves again, BMW doesn't look like a true contender and if Kimi doesn't pass Massa soon (like, right now) on driver standings, Ferrari is going to make him a de facto 2dn driver.

Barring an exceptional Kimi race in Spa, my money is on Ham and Massa battling out until the end of the season.

#62 eoin

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 15:22

Originally posted by Atreiu


The Monaco GP makes me think Hamilton has learned a thing or two about tyre management in the wet this season.

Regardless of the conditions, I see Kimi as a very strong favourite. Unless the track is freezing and the Ferrari's can't get any heat at all in the tyres. :p


Monaco doesn't stress the tyres. Look at silverstone as the track dried before the first pitstop- kimi was all over him.

#63 D.M.N.

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 15:30

Originally posted by D.M.N.


Forget "Bring on the rain!". The "bullshit weather sites" are now saying:

Weather Underground: Friday (30%), Saturday (30%), Sunday (None).
Weather.com: Friday (60%), Saturday (60%), Sunday (20%).
MSN.com: Friday (95%), Saturday (70%), Sunday (50%).

So, it seems like Friday will be wet, Saturday could be wet, and Sunday will be dry. :cry: :cry: :cry:


Changed again:
Weather Underground: Friday (None), Saturday (20%), Sunday (20%).
Weather.com: Friday (70%), Saturday (20%), Sunday (20%).
MSN.com: Friday (95%), Saturday (95%), Sunday (80%).

I think we are going to have to play it by ear.

#64 Atreiu

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 16:08

Originally posted by eoin


Monaco doesn't stress the tyres. Look at silverstone as the track dried before the first pitstop- kimi was all over him.


Maybe in the dry with normal dry tyres Monaco isn't that demanding, but who can tell when you've got a heavy car with intermediate tyres on a quickly drying track?

As for Silverstone, Raikkonen aside, Hamilton was faster than the rest of the field. Who knows if the Ferrari wasn't the fastest car that day? Wet races tend to mix things, especially those which significantly variable conditions.

Anyhow, Hamilton won both and managed his tyres well on both races. It's huge improvement over driving them to the bone and spinning on the way to the pits.

#65 stevvy1986

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 17:03

Originally posted by D.M.N.


Changed again:
Weather Underground: Friday (None), Saturday (20%), Sunday (20%).
Weather.com: Friday (70%), Saturday (20%), Sunday (20%).
MSN.com: Friday (95%), Saturday (95%), Sunday (80%).

I think we are going to have to play it by ear.


the problem as well being that given its location,there may be no rain on the radar for miles around,but could still suddenly pour down unexpectedly

#66 Atreiu

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 17:51

Is a 1 stop stratey viable?

#67 pkenny

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 18:25

For local weather predictions log on to

http://www.skynet.be/actu-sports/meteo

Below is the forecast. I would bet for a dry race on the basis of my past experiences. Hope Friday is not a washout for all the hardy souls there.


Date Aperçu Température Vent Risque de précipitations:
Vendredi
05 Septembre 10° | 17° S, 25 km/h 100%
Samedi
06 Septembre 12° | 17° SSO, 25 km/h 75%
Dimanche
07 Septembre 10° | 16° SO, 20 km/h 55%

Pat

#68 stevvy1986

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 18:40

looking at the rainmaps etc,friday (at the moment) looks like it might be dry for the F1 practice,whereas saturday looks like a washout,and sunday is hit and miss

#69 D.M.N.

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 20:17

Originally posted by stevvy1986
looking at the rainmaps etc,friday (at the moment) looks like it might be dry for the F1 practice,whereas saturday looks like a washout,and sunday is hit and miss


Even a wet qualifying could mix the grid up.;)

#70 Anomander

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 20:19

isn't Ferrari better with a light drizzle?

#71 undersquare

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 20:40

Originally posted by Anomander
isn't Ferrari better with a light drizzle?


I get the impression they're better on a drying track, one that's really a bit too dry for wets.

But with the harder tyres Bridgestone are bringing for several races including Brazil, and Singapore at night, plus Kimi's Q3 problems, I wouldn't be surprised if Ferrari have been working on using their tyres a bit harder.

#72 carbonfibre

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 20:43

Originally posted by D.M.N.


OK, it was famous. And it was the best pass this century alongside Alonso on Schumacher at 130R and Alonso on Schumacher at Hungary 2006.

Or schumacher on raikonen brazil 2006. Not only because it was his last race but what a way to end a career pure perfection.

#73 Kenaltgr

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 21:04

Originally posted by carbonfibre
Or schumacher on raikonen brazil 2006. Not only because it was his last race but what a way to end a career pure perfection.


The pass when Raikkonen radioed and said he's letting him through.

#74 Yellowmc

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 22:08

Originally posted by Atreiu
Is a 1 stop stratey viable?


I wouldn't think so, especially as this is Spa which has a very heavy fuel penalty.

I wouldn't mind a race like the 2005 one except this time ferrari should also be challenging for the victory, if the conditions are changeable, like Silverstone or China last year, it will be a real test of who has the balls to take this WDC by the scruff of it's neck.

Imagine a scenario where Kimi leads Felipe and Lewis, all are on inters and the track is drying, who would dare go first? Who would be able to manage their tyres if it were to suddenly rain again.

These sort of races are the real tests.

#75 wewantourdarbyback

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 22:31

Originally posted by Yellowmc


Imagine a scenario where Kimi leads Felipe and Lewis, all are on inters and the track is drying, who would dare go first? .

I'd put money on lewis wanting to go for it but McLaren being too paranoid as usual

#76 MONTOYASPEED

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 22:33

Originally posted by carbonfibre
Or schumacher on raikonen brazil 2006. Not only because it was his last race but what a way to end a career pure perfection.


And it happened right in front of me. ;)

#77 RSNS

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Posted 03 September 2008 - 23:20

Originally posted by Kenaltgr


The pass when Raikkonen radioed and said he's letting him through.


Excuse me, I do not want to hijack the thread, but this is important: do you have a SOURCE for this statement? Or is it just opinion and hearsay?

#78 Hames Junt

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 08:19

Originally posted by Jakob

I'd even go so far as to say that Kimi is out of the race too if he doesn't get a huge win in Spa.


It's impossible to say really after last year and the amount of off days the front runners have had at times this season. What's not to say that all 3 of them have DNFs and Kubica wins the race, and then he's suddenly right back up there.

What we cannot forget is that last year Kimi was a lot further behind than he is now with 6 races to go and then he went on to score 50 points out of 60 in the remaining races. The problem is that he isn't anywhere near threatening that kind of form at the moment, but if he's going to find it, it'll be at Spa.


#79 marchi-91

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 09:46

Originally posted by Kenaltgr


The pass when Raikkonen radioed and said he's letting him through.



:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Your a ****ing idiot mate. Michael was pushed to the inside of the track as far as kimi would let him. I doubt even kimi saw the move coming.

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#80 cordell777

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 09:49

Originally posted by marchi-91
I doubt even kimi saw the move coming.

Of course not. Kimi usually drive with his eyes closed :drunk:.

#81 D.M.N.

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 10:26

Originally posted by D.M.N.


Changed again:
Weather Underground: Friday (None), Saturday (20%), Sunday (20%).
Weather.com: Friday (70%), Saturday (20%), Sunday (20%).
MSN.com: Friday (95%), Saturday (95%), Sunday (80%).
Overall: Friday (55%), Saturday (45%), Sunday (40%)

I think we are going to have to play it by ear.


Thursday Update:
Weather Underground: Friday (50%), Saturday (20%), Sunday (20%).
Weather.com: Friday (60%), Saturday (60%), Sunday (30%).
MSN.com: Friday (95%), Saturday (90%), Sunday (65%).
Overall: Friday (68%), Saturday (57%), Sunday (38%)

Thank god I'm not a betting man. It looks as though Friday will be wet, Saturday showery, and the predictions for Sunday is for a wet afternoon. ;)

#82 Rinehart

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 10:31

Originally posted by f1rules
no no please no rain, i lead the biggest manager game in denmark with a first price of 5000dollars :lol:


Well you can't be a very good manager if you've not factored in the possibility of rain!

#83 Mika Mika

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 10:37

Apparently they are predicting 13degrees C... So i guess thats a pretty low track temp too..

#84 Youichi

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 10:52

Originally posted by D.M.N.


Thursday Update:
Weather Underground: Friday (50%), Saturday (20%), Sunday (20%).
Weather.com: Friday (60%), Saturday (60%), Sunday (30%).
MSN.com: Friday (95%), Saturday (90%), Sunday (65%).
Overall: Friday (68%), Saturday (57%), Sunday (38%)

Thank god I'm not a betting man. It looks as though Friday will be wet, Saturday showery, and the predictions for Sunday is for a wet afternoon. ;)


This close to the weekend, percentage figures for the whole day don't tell us anything usefull. It will rain on Friday and Saturday, thats practically certain, but its when which is important, if the rain doesn't arrive till 6pm on Friday, and stops by 6am on Saturday, it will make no difference to the F1 sessions, as the track will be dry.

Having said that Weather.com has the rain starting at noon on Friday...
http://uk.weather.co...dayNum=0&flag=1

#85 Atreiu

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 12:39

Originally posted by Yellowmc

(...)Imagine a scenario where Kimi leads Felipe and Lewis, all are on inters and the track is drying, who would dare go first? Who would be able to manage their tyres if it were to suddenly rain again.

(...)



I'm sure Massa would be the last on slicks. The last thing he'd want now is to spin helplessly like he did at Silverstone.

#86 D.M.N.

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 12:45

Originally posted by Atreiu



I'm sure Massa would be the last on slicks. The last thing he'd want now is to spin helplessly like he did at Silverstone.


Would he? On a long track like Belgium, if it started tipping it down halfway around the lap, you wouldn't risk staying out for as the lap is the longest on the calendar.

#87 Atreiu

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 12:53

That makes it too hard to tell, but I guess he'd take the conservative route because he wouldn't want to blow his title chances or his advantage over Kimi on a bold move.

Kubica and Kimi are the ones with reasonos to gamble if it comes to a dry/damp/wet track.

#88 wewantourdarbyback

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 13:17

Originally posted by D.M.N.


Would he? On a long track like Belgium, if it started tipping it down halfway around the lap, you wouldn't risk staying out for as the lap is the longest on the calendar.

Think he meant the last to change back onto slicks from wets

#89 Buttoneer

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 13:22

Originally posted by Yellowmc

I wouldn't mind a race like the 2005 one except this time ferrari should also be challenging for the victory, if the conditions are changeable, like Silverstone or China last year, it will be a real test of who has the balls to take this WDC by the scruff of it's neck.

Imagine a scenario where Kimi leads Felipe and Lewis, all are on inters and the track is drying, who would dare go first? Who would be able to manage their tyres if it were to suddenly rain again.

These sort of races are the real tests.

You're right of course, it could be a real belter. But isn't it sad that we don't get to see the race fought out on the track?

#90 tidytracks

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 13:36

I'm hearing:

Friday and Saturday: rain in the afternoon.
Sunday: dry but overcast

#91 stevewf1

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 13:41

At least one-third of the races in every F1 season should have "mandatory rain"... :D

#92 SchuOz

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 14:19

It rained heavily only once at the Spa-Francorchamps circuit - all day! - as teams, personnel and reporters set up at the venue in the Ardennes.
Parking lots were soaked and puddles saturated the paddock, and local reports indicate that more rain could be on the way, with a more than 50 per cent chance for Thursday through to Sunday.

#93 stevewf1

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 20:00

Rain or no rain, maybe we should just enjoy this year. Are changes coming? http://www.grandprix...ns/ns20711.html

#94 DoubleWDC

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 20:40

Originally posted by Yellowmc

Imagine a scenario where Kimi leads Felipe and Lewis, all are on inters and the track is drying, who would dare go first? Who would be able to manage their tyres if it were to suddenly rain again.


Dare? Hamilton would have no choice since his inters would be shot to pieces earliest.