Is this a Button vs Vettel season?
#1
Posted 19 April 2009 - 11:44
I'm voting yes. We have an increasingly competitive Red Bull which is yet to put in the diffusors, versus a Brawn with a points lead and a seemingly consistent points-collector in Button - whereas Vettel has looked a little more ragged with mistakes in the first 2 races. This is going to be a fascinating year.
I'm not ruling out Webber to make an impression at some point of the season, and surely some other teams will get a win or two, but I think the championship is between Jenson and Sebastian. And I've voted in Vettel to win.
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#2
Posted 19 April 2009 - 11:49
#3
Posted 19 April 2009 - 12:37
Originally posted by Hippo
Today the BrawnGP car wasn't fast enough to compete with the Red Bulls, but that was because of the rain. In dry conditions it's still better by a few tenth / lap.
True but Red Bull is getting closer, fuel-corrected their qualifying yesterday was about 2-3 tenths short of the Brawns, bolt in the new diffusor and that car is likely to become the quickest in the grid.
#4
Posted 19 April 2009 - 12:52
#5
Posted 19 April 2009 - 12:52
#6
Posted 19 April 2009 - 13:03
They could always go back to the A car,but my feeling is that the DDD may become vitally important as to render a car with a normal diffuser uncompetitive as the season wears on.
#7
Posted 19 April 2009 - 13:11
#8
Posted 19 April 2009 - 13:12
I just can't see Brawn fighting KERS teams, if KERS becomes an advantage. I already wrote, that i see RB becoming best car on the grid as they don't have either DD or KERS installed yet. Renault also improved as has McLaren in Chine and i expect more to come from BMW too. I also can't count out Ferrari just yet.
If i have to pick a favorite to win championship, my gues is Vettel.
#9
Posted 19 April 2009 - 13:13
#10
Posted 19 April 2009 - 13:14
Originally posted by MiPe
It seems to be accepted by most, that difussers gave drivers who have them unfair advantage over others. Easy win for ex-Honda team basically makes any fair comparison therefore impossible. I have therefore abstained from voting despite my believe, that in inverse situation, JB riding Red Bull, he would not be anywhere close in points that he is having now.
This thread isn't about rating drivers, it's about who's going to fight for the championship.
#11
Posted 19 April 2009 - 13:20
Originally posted by FA and RK fan
IMO other teams will win races too.
i see RB becoming best car on the grid as they don't have either DD or KERS installed yet. .
I think thats too simplistic, while they don't have a DD, its not like the situation Ferrari and others have found themselves, in, they have taken a clever direction with there back hand that has given competitive performance with DD, its might not be compatible (or fully anyway) with a DD.
#12
Posted 19 April 2009 - 13:21
#13
Posted 19 April 2009 - 13:27
Originally posted by pippin
I haven't voted either but after today's race it is tempting to judge it a Button versus Vettel season. However I still think its way too early to judge. Both have competitive teammates and you cannot discount other teams just yet.
Just as an example, Peugeot won the first four Le Mans Series races (out of 5) in 2008, then completely messed up the final one and won nothing. This is just three races in, and as good as the RBR & Brawn's look so far, anything could happen yet.
#14
Posted 19 April 2009 - 13:42
That is highly probable, but let's wait until RedBull bolt than DDD onto their car like Renault did in China and see whether it does give the team considerable advantages. McLaren seemed to get some advantages out of their improved conventional diffuser, but not enough to sligshot them past Brawn-Merc and RBR.Originally posted by paranoik0
True but Red Bull is getting closer, fuel-corrected their qualifying yesterday was about 2-3 tenths short of the Brawns, bolt in the new diffusor and that car is likely to become the quickest in the grid.
But RedBull show absolute commitment in sending their top designer, Newer back to the factory to finetune this piece of equipment while they were racing in Shanghai.
-KB
#15
Posted 19 April 2009 - 14:04
I think most people would agree the DDD gives drivers an advantage, but I think you'd struggle to find "most" who think that was unfair. All the teams had the same regulations to build a car too. Some drivers drive for teams who optimised them in the difuser arera and some do not. Same as some drive for teams with pushrod suspension and some do not, etc.Originally posted by MiPe
It seems to be accepted by most, that difussers gave drivers who have them unfair advantage over others. Easy win for ex-Honda team basically makes any fair comparison therefore impossible. I have therefore abstained from voting despite my believe, that in inverse situation, JB riding Red Bull, he would not be anywhere close in points that he is having now.
But back on topic, I think the deciding factor will be the weather. RBR are going to take some time to get a DDD on their car, and if it is dry races all the way to that point then Jenson will run away and win easily, with Barrichello second. If we get wet races at the first couple of European races than things can be very different and give RBR the chance to stay close, and give chances to others.
It is very hard to judge whether other teams can come back as development without testing is unknown quantity. My gut says McLaren with it's simulation tools is the most likely contender, and it's KERS could be enough to get it close early enough to make them a competitor.
#16
Posted 19 April 2009 - 14:16
Originally posted by Kelateboy
That is highly probable, but let's wait until RedBull bolt than DDD onto their car like Renault did in China and see whether it does give the team considerable advantages. McLaren seemed to get some advantages out of their DDD, but not enough to sligshot them past Brawn-Merc and RBR.
McLaren didn't use a DDD in China, just an improved conventional diffuser.
But RedBull show absolute commitment in sending their top designer, Newer back to the factory to finetune this piece of equipment while they were racing in Shanghai.
-KB
It's a bit funny how Newey had to watch his car getting his first victory from the TV. He must be thinking "damn I wish I was there".
#17
Posted 19 April 2009 - 14:20
#18
Posted 19 April 2009 - 14:23
Well neither are Vettel and Webber. It's Jenson who's leading, not them.Originally posted by MiPe
I have therefore abstained from voting despite my believe, that in inverse situation, JB riding Red Bull, he would not be anywhere close in points that he is having now.
#19
Posted 19 April 2009 - 14:33
Originally posted by MiPe
It seems to be accepted by most, that difussers gave drivers who have them unfair advantage over others. Easy win for ex-Honda team basically makes any fair comparison therefore impossible. I have therefore abstained from voting despite my believe, that in inverse situation, JB riding Red Bull, he would not be anywhere close in points that he is having now.
Actually, I don't think Button would be doing much worse in a Red Bull. He would have likely taken 3rd in Australia (Kubica would have taken 2nd) - 6 points. No grid penalty for Malaysia puts him in the top 5 on the grid, and with the changing conditions I suspect he would have had a shot at the win in a Red Bull. But let's figure a conservative fourth place for him there - 2.5 points. Swap him and Vettel and he likely wins in China in what was clearly a superior car for the conditions. But again let's be conservative and say that Webber edges him out for the win so he takes 2nd - 8 points. Total = 16.5 figuring conservatively, versus the 21 he has now.
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#20
Posted 19 April 2009 - 14:33
I am sorry TickTick, but Seb is "my" new hero. That doesn't mean I wish to pile up on fans of JB.Originally posted by TickTickBooom
Well neither are Vettel and Webber. It's Jenson who's leading, not them.
#21
Posted 19 April 2009 - 14:37
Maybe; it's just an idle talk between races. JB shines for TickTick, whereas I am glowing after China. Considering how season went thus far, I did need a well deserved break...Originally posted by tkulla
Actually, I don't think Button would be doing much worse in a Red Bull. He would have likely taken 3rd in Australia (Kubica would have taken 2nd) - 6 points. No grid penalty for Malaysia puts him in the top 5 on the grid, and with the changing conditions I suspect he would have had a shot at the win in a Red Bull. But let's figure a conservative fourth place for him there - 2.5 points. Swap him and Vettel and he likely wins in China in what was clearly a superior car for the conditions. But again let's be conservative and say that Webber edges him out for the win so he takes 2nd - 8 points. Total = 16.5 figuring conservatively, versus the 21 he has now.
#22
Posted 19 April 2009 - 15:03
I don't think Brawn or Red Bull would let Barrichello or Webber seriously challenge and jeopardize a WDC bid, even though they still have time to effectively force their way through.
#23
Posted 19 April 2009 - 15:09
I stand corrected. You are right - McLaren used an improved conventional diffuser and not a DDD.Originally posted by paranoik0
McLaren didn't use a DDD in China, just an improved conventional diffuser.
I saw the picture of a different diffuser than the one McLaren used in Malaysia and Australia on another webpage and automatically assumed it was a DDD. I went back to check the said picture, and yes, it was not a double decker.
Not being a McLaren's fan, I did not pay too much attention to details. My mistake.
-KB
#24
Posted 19 April 2009 - 15:11
Well imagine how I must be feeling after two years of supporting Jenson in a Honda.Originally posted by MiPe
Maybe; it's just an idle talk between races. JB shines for TickTick, whereas I am glowing after China. Considering how season went thus far, I did need a well deserved break...
Yes, I was disappointed with the result today but I know I shouldn't be. A podium's awesome and that's what he needs right now; consistent results that will lead to the championship. But I like it when he wins.
#25
Posted 19 April 2009 - 15:18
#26
Posted 19 April 2009 - 16:18
#27
Posted 19 April 2009 - 19:30
It depends on the cars IMO.