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Place The Points Competition after the Italian GP


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#1 Makarias

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Posted 13 September 2009 - 17:58

The standings after the Italian GP:
Pos Name Tot Latest
1) D82 440 31
2) Grayson 424 21
3) Xig 415 17
4) jokuvaan 410 20
5) arcsine 405 19
6) race addicted 402 20
7) dnbn 401 17
8) paranoik0 397 29
9) kismet 395 17
= scheivlak 395 17
11) mark f1 386 17
12) Apex 379 17
13) Crazy Canuck 372 17
14) Makarias 370 17
15) LB 363 17
16) turin 360 19
17) Kooper 355 16
18) skylark68 349 18
19) control 348 16
20) KWSN - DSM 346 15
21) Nads.Dams 340 14
22) Estwald 337 13
23) ville 331 16
24) fisichella_2001 330 17
25) Slick 318 16
26) kNt 315 13
27) an1res 306 16
28) AcuraF1 304 16
29) shays 299 17

A good race for Brawn makes a bad result for most players. Sutil was of course costly too.

The entries


The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Fisichella 705,4 150,0 29
Sutil 426,5 83,3 28
Webber 290,5 146,3 29
Vettel 228,8 147,6 29
Button 209,1 102,1 29
Barrichello 200,0 91,6 27
Rosberg 186,5 79,5 26
Buemi 75,0 18,8 11
Trulli 65,3 42,9 2
Kovalainen 64,8 35,7 5
Glock 55,8 37,0 2
Hamilton 53,2 30,1 4
Räikkönen 50,6 35,4 0
Alonso 34,8 22,0 0
Bourdais 27,5 11,8 2
Massa 27,2 19,8 0
Heidfeld 25,7 13,2 0
Kubica 10,4 6,5 0

Adrian Sutil
becomes the seventh driver to get past his own 100% expectation mark. Jenson becomes the fourth 100% surprise of the season.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2009 this is 29.


Guesses on the latest points scorers:

Barrichello Button Räikkönen Sutil Alonso Kovalainen Heidfeld Vettel
* Potential 124 * Potential 147 Nads.Dams 129 * Potential 53 an1res 90 * Potential 68 kNt 128 * Potential 110
* Forecast 99 * Forecast 129 kNt 115 * Forecast 7 Kooper 83 Slick 55 Nads.Dams 102 * Forecast 81
D82 82 * Current 99 AcuraF1 108 Grayson 5 Crazy Canuck 75 AcuraF1 53 paranoik0 96 * Current 62
paranoik0 76 D82 96 Apex 105 * Current 5 ville 72 skylark68 48 KWSN - DSM 91 arcsine 41
* Current 76 jokuvaan 70 Slick 103 race addicted 4 Estwald 70 turin 48 an1res 80 D82 38
jokuvaan 65 Grayson 69 jokuvaan 100 arcsine 3 AcuraF1 69 shays 44 ville 78 fisichella_2001 37
kismet 58 paranoik0 69 Kooper 99 jokuvaan 3 fisichella_2001 69 an1res 40 Xig 78 dnbn 36
Grayson 50 Xig 66 shays 99 turin 3 Slick 69 jokuvaan 39 arcsine 70 Crazy Canuck 35
Xig 50 Nads.Dams 63 paranoik0 98 skylark68 2 * Potential 68 mark f1 39 LB 70 ville 35
kNt 49 scheivlak 60 race addicted 96 Apex 1 dnbn 66 ville 39 Kooper 68 Xig 33
scheivlak 48 mark f1 59 control 95 Crazy Canuck 1 KWSN - DSM 65 Grayson 37 Makarias 68 control 32
Makarias 47 race addicted 59 turin 95 dnbn 1 shays 65 fisichella_2001 36 Estwald 66 Grayson 32
Kooper 46 arcsine 58 * Potential 94 fisichella_2001 1 control 62 control 35 skylark68 66 Apex 30
arcsine 42 kismet 56 fisichella_2001 93 kismet 1 Xig 62 Makarias 33 * Potential 65 LB 30
race addicted 42 Apex 55 D82 92 KWSN - DSM 1 Apex 60 Kooper 32 Crazy Canuck 65 scheivlak 30
Nads.Dams 41 LB 55 KWSN - DSM 90 LB 1 scheivlak 60 scheivlak 32 jokuvaan 64 Slick 28
turin 38 turin 50 LB 90 Makarias 1 kismet 59 Apex 30 kismet 64 mark f1 27
Apex 35 Makarias 47 kismet 89 mark f1 1 Nads.Dams 59 arcsine 30 AcuraF1 62 shays 27
Crazy Canuck 35 skylark68 46 scheivlak 88 Nads.Dams 1 turin 55 dnbn 26 race addicted 61 Makarias 26
Estwald 35 kNt 43 Estwald 87 paranoik0 1 Makarias 54 * Forecast 26 Slick 60 an1res 25
dnbn 34 Crazy Canuck 40 Crazy Canuck 85 scheivlak 1 Grayson 52 Crazy Canuck 25 Grayson 56 kismet 25
mark f1 32 dnbn 40 Makarias 84 shays 1 skylark68 52 kismet 23 mark f1 54 KWSN - DSM 25
KWSN - DSM 30 ville 38 skylark68 84 Xig 1 race addicted 50 race addicted 23 control 53 turin 25
LB 30 Estwald 36 an1res 80 AcuraF1 0 mark f1 46 Xig 22 shays 53 Kooper 24
skylark68 28 Kooper 31 dnbn 79 an1res 0 LB 45 LB 20 fisichella_2001 51 Nads.Dams 24
Slick 20 KWSN - DSM 30 mark f1 74 control 0 jokuvaan 43 paranoik0 20 scheivlak 50 Estwald 20
AcuraF1 19 Slick 30 ville 73 D82 0 arcsine 39 * Current 20 turin 48 jokuvaan 19
ville 19 control 28 arcsine 71 Estwald 0 paranoik0 35 KWSN - DSM 18 Apex 45 kNt 19
control 18 AcuraF1 27 Grayson 68 kNt 0 * Forecast 26 Estwald 17 dnbn 43 race addicted 18
an1res 15 shays 22 Xig 68 Kooper 0 D82 21 D82 15 D82 28 AcuraF1 17
shays 12 an1res 15 * Forecast 60 Slick 0 kNt 20 Nads.Dams 13 * Forecast 22 skylark68 17
fisichella_2001 6 fisichella_2001 15 * Current 46 ville 0 * Current 20 kNt 3 * Current 17 paranoik0 11

Sutil needs only a single point to become a 100% surprise. Only D82 can still score points from a Brawn.

The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast
D82 500,5 -6,2
Grayson 490,8 6,3
jokuvaan 474,3 5,7
arcsine 471,8 2,0
Xig 468,1 1,8
dnbn 462,3 2,8
scheivlak 460,8 1,6
race addicted 459,5 3,1
kismet 458,6 -1,8
paranoik0 455,5 1,9
mark f1 451,8 0,3
Apex 444,8 0,3
Crazy Canuck 436,7 -0,8
Makarias 435,8 0,3
LB 423,6 -2,1
Kooper 420,8 -0,7
turin 419,7 4,5
control 414,8 -1,0
KWSN - DSM 412,2 1,7
skylark68 408,5 4,3
Estwald 397,6 -1,1
ville 396,2 -0,4
fisichella_2001 393,5 3,3
Nads.Dams 381,2 4,8
Slick 374,4 4,5
AcuraF1 363,4 4,5
an1res 363,2 2,4
kNt 353,6 -0,2
shays 353,4 5,5

Minor forecast changes, and in both directions. A somewhat worrying trend for D82, who can lose ground to Grayson if Alonso and Kovalainen score many late season points...

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#2 D82

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Posted 13 September 2009 - 18:10

Go Rubens! :D

#3 jokuvaan

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Posted 13 September 2009 - 18:22

Are those potentials correct?

Lets say alonso, 20 points now, if he wins all remaining races he will go to max 60 points, but table shows 68 points?

Is it about half points given by one race that messes it up?

Edited by jokuvaan, 13 September 2009 - 18:26.


#4 noikeee

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Posted 13 September 2009 - 19:58

Makarias started this at the beginning of the year, when it was still unclear which points system F1 would use. So we're using FOTA's system (12-9-7-5-4-3-2-1).

#5 jokuvaan

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Posted 14 September 2009 - 07:16

Ah yes, I totally forgot that...(must be the flu I'm having)

Edited by jokuvaan, 14 September 2009 - 08:23.