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2009 Formula 1 Championship Permutations heading into Brazil


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#1 Psymon

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Posted 04 October 2009 - 09:04

After D.M.N. posted the permutations for Japan in a previous thread, I thought I'd look at the permutations for the Brazilian Grand Prix.

Barrichello and Vettel will need to be 9 points or less behind Button to have a chance at taking the championship from him in Abu Dhabi. 10 points won't be enough as whatever happens Button will have more wins overall!

Assuming the race scores full championship points:

Drivers' Championship

If Button Finishes...
- 1st, 2nd or 3rd, He will be champion.
- 4th or 5th, Barrichello must finish 1st to keep the title alive. Vettel would be out of the title race.
- 6th or 7th, Barrichello must finish 1st or 2nd to keep the title alive. Vettel must finish 1st.
- 8th, Barrichello must finish 3rd or above to keep the title alive. Vettel must finish 1st or 2nd.
- 9th or below, Barrichello must finish 4th or above to keep the title alive. Vettel must finish 1st or 2nd.

If Barrichello Finishes...
- 1st, Button must finish 3rd to be champion.
- 2nd, Button must finish 5th to be champion.
- 3rd, Button must finish 7th to be champion, unless Vettel finishes 1st.
- 4th, Button must finish 8th to be champion, unless Vettel finishes 1st or 2nd.
- 5th, Button is automatically champion, unless Vettel finishes 1st or 2nd.

If Vettel Finishes...
- 1st, Button cannot finish higher than 6th for Vettel to stay in the title race.
- 2nd, Button cannot finish higher than 8th for Vettel to stay in the title race.
- 3rd, he is out of the title race.

Constructors' Championship

- If Brawn get 1 point or more, they are champions

Button's certainly in the best position to win the championship now, but as Hamilton proved in 2007, nobody should be discounted until they're mathematically out of it!

Edited by Psymon, 06 October 2009 - 11:19.


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#2 jesee

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Posted 04 October 2009 - 09:23

Good job. The odds against him winning it are truly great.

#3 Henrytheeigth

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Posted 04 October 2009 - 09:41

Sure is exciting isnt it! I cant wait! Brazil will go nuts if Rubens wins! He never has! So many times he could of as well..

#4 Captain Tightpants

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Posted 04 October 2009 - 10:12

A four or fifth position will make Button champion in all but name, because Vettel and Barrichello will have a very difficult time staying alive in a straight fight: they need some other results to go their way.

#5 mazda3237

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Posted 04 October 2009 - 10:20

A four or fifth position will make Button champion in all but name, because Vettel and Barrichello will have a very difficult time staying alive in a straight fight: they need some other results to go their way.



I cant believe that Button protested Rosberg today, is he THAT desperate to win the championship and THAT unconfident in his own performance that he needs to resort to underhand tactics?

#6 Dalton007

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Posted 04 October 2009 - 10:22

I cant believe that Button protested Rosberg today, is he THAT desperate to win the championship and THAT unconfident in his own performance that he needs to resort to underhand tactics?


And he had every right to. He was right that Rosberg drove quicker than the other drivers, but Nico couldn't see the min laptime required on his steering wheel. Next.

#7 pippin

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Posted 04 October 2009 - 10:27

I cant believe that Button protested Rosberg today, is he THAT desperate to win the championship and THAT unconfident in his own performance that he needs to resort to underhand tactics?


Jenson was correct that Rosberg had gone too fast under the safety car, but luckily for him he had a decent enough explanation to satisfy the stewards. It was still worth investigating IMO.

#8 Wingcommander

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Posted 04 October 2009 - 10:34

Brazil 2007... :eek:

Anything Can Happen.

Edited by Wingcommander, 04 October 2009 - 10:35.


#9 se7en_24

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Posted 04 October 2009 - 10:38

I really think Vettel is the bigger threat here. He looks like he could win but then he has to worry about engines as well. Maybe they should have taken a penalty at one of their bogey tracks.

#10 Dolph

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Posted 04 October 2009 - 11:18

Constructors' Championship

- If Brawn get 1 point or more, they are champions.


Correction: 0,5 points or more

#11 Psymon

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Posted 04 October 2009 - 11:26

Correction: 0,5 points or more


Updated - I put 1 point as I think it unlikely we'll get another half points race, but then again you never know :)

Oh and sorry DMN for beating you to it on the thread, I see the two have been merged now!

#12 ryan86

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Posted 04 October 2009 - 12:28

Brawn don't need to score any points if either of the remaining two races gives out half points however as Red Bull could only score 9.

Edited by ryan86, 04 October 2009 - 12:29.


#13 Psymon

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Posted 04 October 2009 - 12:45

Brawn don't need to score any points if either of the remaining two races gives out half points however as Red Bull could only score 9.


Good point :) Of course if either of the last two races are a half points race it would mean Vettel can't win the championship and Barrichello would need to win both with no score from Button.

Edited by Psymon, 04 October 2009 - 12:47.


#14 Atreiu

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Posted 04 October 2009 - 13:07

Nice work, thanks.
A trouble free weekend for Button should give him the title. He just better hope Kimi and Lewis take huge benefit form KERS and get in Vettel's way. Barrichello will need a miracle to win the race and Button not be right on his tail.

#15 lustigson

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Posted 05 October 2009 - 07:11

- If Brawn get 1 point or more, they are champions

Actually, half a point is enough, isn't it? ;)

#16 Jackmancer

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Posted 05 October 2009 - 07:26

I wonder what would happen if Massa where racing and Barrichello was behind him. Would he let Rubens passed to help him win the championship? :rotfl:

#17 Jackmancer

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Posted 05 October 2009 - 07:28

Actually, half a point is enough, isn't it?;)


Yep, and that can still happen if the race is red flagged before 75% ;-)

If that would be the case Vettel is instantly out of the championship & Barrichello needs to win while Button may not be higher then 8th.

anyway VERY UNLIKELY :)

Edited by Jackmancer, 05 October 2009 - 09:12.


#18 Psymon

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Posted 05 October 2009 - 09:09

Actually, half a point is enough, isn't it?;)


That's why I've put "Assuming the race scores full championship points." It's impossible for the team to score half a point unless a race is cut short... and if it is... well the whole list of permutations is incorrect anyway :p

Out of interest, If Malaysia had awarded full points (and assuming the positions stayed as they were...) then Vettel would currently be out of the champ and Barrichello would be 17 points behind  ;)

Edited by Psymon, 05 October 2009 - 09:14.


#19 Jackmancer

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Posted 05 October 2009 - 09:12

That's why I've put "Assuming the race scores full championship points." It's impossible for the team to score half a point unless a race is cut short... and if it is... well the whole list of permutations is incorrect anyway :p


Yes if the race would be cut short the list is simple:

Barrichello needs to win while Button has to finish 8th or lower.
Vettel is instantly out of the championship.

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#20 Jackmancer

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Posted 05 October 2009 - 12:03

Just if Button becomes World Champion... the simulairities between 2008 and 2009 of which I can think of are:

Jenson Button & Lewis Hamilton...
Number #22 car to be World Champion
Divorced parents
Dad always at race
Girlfriend always at race
Have their first name named after someone's surname (Erling Jensen & Carl Lewis)
Both started karting at eight.
Both Britons.
Finished above their teammate in debut season (Ralf Schumacher 2000 & Fernando Alonso 2007)
Both Mercedes engine.
Both in Brazil
Versus Brazilian drivers (Barrichello & Massa) (by WebBerK ;) )
Both teambosses have names starting with a R (by ryan86 ;) )

Trivia ;p

Edited by Jackmancer, 06 October 2009 - 09:12.


#21 ForeverF1

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Posted 05 October 2009 - 13:54

Just if Button becomes World Champion... the simulairities between 2008 and 2009 of which I can think of are:

Jenson Button & Lewis Hamilton...
Number #22 car to be World Champion
Divorced parents
Dad always at race
Girlfriend always at race
Have their first name named after someone's surname (Erling Jensen & Carl Lewis)
Both started karting at eight.
Both Britons.
Finished above their teammate in debut season (Ralf Schumacher 2000 & Fernando Alonso 2007)
Both Mercedes engine.
Both in Brazil

Trivia ;p


:confused: ..... :lol: :wave:

#22 Jackmancer

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Posted 05 October 2009 - 13:57

:confused: ..... :lol: :wave:


Is that wierd? John Button named Jenson after his friend Erling Jensen but with the 'o' instead of the 'e', so he wouldn't be confused with Jensen Motors.

Renaming a person after someone/something doesn't require exactly the same name.

#23 noikeee

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Posted 05 October 2009 - 14:00

Finished above their teammate in debut season (Ralf Schumacher 2000)


... except this didn't happen.

#24 Jackmancer

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Posted 05 October 2009 - 14:04

... except this didn't happen.


oops, you're right :eek:

#25 WebBerK

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Posted 05 October 2009 - 14:17

Just if Button becomes World Champion... the simulairities between 2008 and 2009 of which I can think of are:

Jenson Button & Lewis Hamilton...
Number #22 car to be World Champion
Divorced parents
Dad always at race
Girlfriend always at race
Have their first name named after someone's surname (Erling Jensen & Carl Lewis)
Both started karting at eight.
Both Britons.
Finished above their teammate in debut season (Ralf Schumacher 2000 & Fernando Alonso 2007)
Both Mercedes engine.
Both in Brazil

Trivia ;p

Both over Brazilian drivers.

#26 WebBerK

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Posted 05 October 2009 - 14:22

Actually I think Vettel's mission is easier than Barrico's.
Kimi recovered from a 16 points deficit in a different car.
Rubens is 15 pts down in the same car.

Furthermore Brawn is not a dominat car as it used to be, so 15 pts for Rubens is a difficult target, no matter what jenson will do.

#27 Jackmancer

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Posted 05 October 2009 - 14:38

Both over Brazilian drivers.


Hehe yeah good thinking :up:

#28 WebBerK

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Posted 05 October 2009 - 14:45

Hehe yeah good thinking :up:

Yup, winning the title away, at the enema's home brings more merrit to the conquer.
The Britons are invading Brazil :eek:
Soon it will be part of the Commonwhealt... rsrsrs.

#29 skid solo

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Posted 05 October 2009 - 16:32

I cant believe that Button protested Rosberg today, is he THAT desperate to win the championship and THAT unconfident in his own performance that he needs to resort to underhand tactics?


Firstly It wasn't underhanded, he simply observed that Rosberg had gone faster than everybody else under SC conditions, which was correct. He was let off because his car was showing low fuel on the display by mistake.

Secondly it wasn't about his championship as it made little difference, it was about Brawn GP and the constructors championship which they would have won if his protest had been upheld.

#30 Brawn BGP 001

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Posted 05 October 2009 - 21:29

Yup, winning the title away, at the enema's home brings more merrit to the conquer.
The Britons are invading Brazil :eek:
Soon it will be part of the Commonwhealt... rsrsrs.

:rotfl:

#31 ryan86

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Posted 05 October 2009 - 21:49

If we are going for really tenuous ones, both had team bosses whose names begin with R. (Ross and Ron)

#32 Captain Tightpants

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Posted 06 October 2009 - 06:25

The Britons are invading Brazil :eek:
Soon it will be part of the Commonwhealt... rsrsrs.

Not is Santander get there first.

#33 GhostR

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Posted 06 October 2009 - 09:07

Yup, winning the title away, at the enema's home brings more merrit to the conquer.


:eek:

Is having an enema worse than having an enemy?

#34 Jackmancer

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Posted 06 October 2009 - 09:11

If we are going for really tenuous ones, both had team bosses whose names begin with R. (Ross and Ron)


Lol :up: added :up:

#35 Daveofoz

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Posted 18 October 2009 - 09:57

I haven't found this posted elsewhere... So, what does Jenson Button need to happen to secure the WDC this race in Brazil '09.

I'm basing this on how JB's championship rivals finish.

If RB finishes 1st JB must finish at least 3rd to be WDC
If RB finishes 2nd JB must finish at least 5th
If RB finishes 3rd JB must finish at least 7th
If RB finishes 4rd JB must finish at least 8th
If RB finishes 5th JB is da man!
RB has to take 5 points from JB to take the title decider to Abu Dhabi


If SV finishes 1st JB must finish at least 5th
If SV finishes 2nd JB must finish at least 7th
If SV finishes 3rd JB is da man!
SV has to take 7 points from JB to take the title decider to Abu Dhabi

Does this look right to you guys?

D



#36 MinT

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Posted 18 October 2009 - 10:00

[quote name='Daveofoz' date='Oct 18 2009, 10:57' post='3937321']
So, what does Jenson Button need to happen to secure the WDC this race in Brazil '09.


quote]


A miracle....

#37 scheivlak

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Posted 18 October 2009 - 10:05

Found the earlier thread: http://forums.autosp...hl=championship

#38 RodrigoL

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Posted 18 October 2009 - 10:23

What I want to happen:
Rubens 1st, Vettel 2nd, Button out of points

What I think will happen:
"If RB finishes 3rd JB must finish at least 7th" :|