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Place The Points Competition after the Brazilian GP


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#1 Makarias

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Posted 19 October 2009 - 23:27

The standings after the Brazilian GP:
Pos Name Tot Latest
1) D82 512 20
2) Grayson 500 21
3) arcsine 479 19
4) dnbn 471 21
5) kismet 470 20
6) scheivlak 469 19
7) jokuvaan 466 12
8) Xig 464 13
9) race addicted 463 15
10) mark f1 460 19
11) Apex 453 19
12) paranoik0 452 12
13) Makarias 444 19
14) LB 435 19
15) Crazy Canuck 434 12
16) Kooper 429 19
17) turin 425 19
18) control 424 21
19) skylark68 416 19
20) KWSN - DSM 405 12
= ville 405 19
22) fisichella_2001 401 19
23) Estwald 396 14
24) Slick 379 19
25) Nads.Dams 377 12
26) AcuraF1 368 19
27) shays 358 19
28) an1res 356 14
29) kNt 349 14

A minimum of 12 points from Kubica and Räikkönen for everyone, on top of that seven points from Hamilton for most and a little other stuff.

The entries


The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Fisichella 705,4 150,0 29
Sutil 426,5 83,3 28
Webber 348,6 175,6 29
Vettel 309,9 200,0 29
Button 228,1 111,3 29
Barrichello 215,8 98,8 28
Rosberg 210,6 89,7 28
Buemi 125,0 31,3 20
Hamilton 97,8 55,3 12
Trulli 87,0 57,1 8
Glock 80,9 53,7 5
Kovalainen 71,3 39,3 7
Räikkönen 59,4 41,5 0
Alonso 47,0 29,7 2
Heidfeld 30,2 15,5 0
Bourdais 27,5 11,8 2
Massa 27,2 19,8 0
Kubica 23,4 14,6 0

Sebastien Buemi becomes the eighth driver this year to fulfill the expectations and Hamilton is getting very close to becoming the ninth. Barrichello is now level with the highest guess on him, but needs one more point to become a 100% surprise.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2009 this is 29.


Guesses on the latest points scorers:

Webber Kubica Hamilton Vettel Button Räikkönen Buemi Barrichello
* Potential 84 kNt 122 Slick 102 * Potential 96 * Potential 120 Nads.Dams 129 * Potential 17 * Potential 94
* Forecast 77 shays 109 AcuraF1 99 * Forecast 89 * Forecast 115 kNt 115 an1res 15 * Forecast 87
* Current 72 Nads.Dams 95 shays 90 * Current 84 * Current 108 AcuraF1 108 control 13 D82 82
dnbn 40 skylark68 94 control 85 arcsine 41 D82 96 Apex 105 dnbn 12 * Current 82
mark f1 34 ville 94 fisichella_2001 76 D82 38 jokuvaan 70 Slick 103 LB 10 paranoik0 76
fisichella_2001 32 arcsine 92 ville 76 fisichella_2001 37 Grayson 69 jokuvaan 100 race addicted 7 jokuvaan 65
control 30 Estwald 86 skylark68 72 dnbn 36 paranoik0 69 Kooper 99 * Forecast 5 kismet 58
Crazy Canuck 30 mark f1 83 Grayson 70 Crazy Canuck 35 Xig 66 shays 99 arcsine 5 Grayson 50
arcsine 29 race addicted 83 * Potential 69 ville 35 Nads.Dams 63 paranoik0 98 Estwald 5 Xig 50
race addicted 29 AcuraF1 80 mark f1 65 Xig 33 scheivlak 60 race addicted 96 Grayson 5 kNt 49
Grayson 28 Crazy Canuck 80 turin 65 control 32 mark f1 59 control 95 kNt 5 scheivlak 48
skylark68 28 LB 80 dnbn 64 Grayson 32 race addicted 59 turin 95 * Current 5 Makarias 47
Kooper 22 turin 80 Kooper 62 Apex 30 arcsine 58 fisichella_2001 93 kismet 4 Kooper 46
kismet 21 Slick 76 Makarias 62 LB 30 kismet 56 D82 92 Xig 4 arcsine 42
turin 21 fisichella_2001 74 scheivlak 62 scheivlak 30 Apex 55 KWSN - DSM 90 Apex 3 race addicted 42
an1res 20 scheivlak 74 * Forecast 61 Slick 28 LB 55 LB 90 D82 3 Nads.Dams 41
Apex 20 KWSN - DSM 71 Apex 60 mark f1 27 turin 50 kismet 89 fisichella_2001 3 turin 38
LB 20 Apex 70 D82 58 shays 27 Makarias 47 scheivlak 88 paranoik0 3 Apex 35
Makarias 20 dnbn 68 kismet 58 Makarias 26 skylark68 46 Estwald 87 scheivlak 3 Crazy Canuck 35
scheivlak 20 jokuvaan 68 * Current 57 an1res 25 kNt 43 Crazy Canuck 85 shays 3 Estwald 35
Xig 20 control 65 arcsine 55 kismet 25 Crazy Canuck 40 Makarias 84 skylark68 3 dnbn 34
ville 18 Kooper 65 LB 55 KWSN - DSM 25 dnbn 40 skylark68 84 Makarias 2 mark f1 32
Estwald 16 Xig 65 race addicted 51 turin 25 ville 38 an1res 80 mark f1 2 KWSN - DSM 30
AcuraF1 15 kismet 63 Crazy Canuck 45 Kooper 24 Estwald 36 dnbn 79 Nads.Dams 2 LB 30
KWSN - DSM 15 an1res 60 Estwald 42 Nads.Dams 24 Kooper 31 mark f1 74 Crazy Canuck 1 skylark68 28
Slick 15 paranoik0 60 KWSN - DSM 40 Estwald 20 KWSN - DSM 30 ville 73 jokuvaan 1 Slick 20
shays 14 Grayson 58 paranoik0 40 jokuvaan 19 Slick 30 arcsine 71 KWSN - DSM 1 AcuraF1 19
jokuvaan 13 Makarias 58 jokuvaan 39 kNt 19 control 28 Grayson 68 turin 1 ville 19
kNt 11 D82 55 an1res 30 race addicted 18 AcuraF1 27 Xig 68 AcuraF1 0 control 18
D82 7 * Potential 30 Nads.Dams 27 AcuraF1 17 shays 22 * Potential 66 Kooper 0 an1res 15
paranoik0 6 * Forecast 19 Xig 27 skylark68 17 an1res 15 * Forecast 57 Slick 0 shays 12
Nads.Dams 5 * Current 18 kNt 13 paranoik0 11 fisichella_2001 15 * Current 54 ville 0 fisichella_2001 6

D82 has not only the best guesses on the Brawns, but also on Kubica.

The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast
D82 524,4 2,0
Grayson 515,8 5,3
arcsine 493,4 -1,2
dnbn 487,1 5,6
scheivlak 485,8 3,7
kismet 485,1 1,5
jokuvaan 480,4 -2,8
mark f1 478,0 1,1
Xig 476,8 1,9
race addicted 475,6 2,8
Apex 470,4 1,4
paranoik0 464,1 1,0
Makarias 462,0 1,1
LB 448,4 0,7
Crazy Canuck 447,6 0,1
Kooper 447,0 3,0
control 442,3 3,0
turin 441,2 4,0
skylark68 430,9 5,7
ville 422,9 1,3
KWSN - DSM 420,3 -2,0
fisichella_2001 416,8 3,7
Estwald 409,1 0,4
Slick 392,9 5,7
Nads.Dams 387,7 1,5
AcuraF1 381,9 5,7
shays 371,9 5,7
an1res 370,8 -0,9
kNt 358,1 6,7

Forecasts improved a bit thanks to Kubica's podium.

Championship battle analysis
It's not super close at the top this year, only Grayson has a realistic chance to catch D82 in the final round.

Drivers that can help Grayson:
Hamilton: anything above one point scored in Abu Dhabi will help Grayson.
Alonso, Kovalainen, Sutil: all points scored in Abu.
Heidfeld, Nakajima: Need to win or finish second to make a difference. Not very likely in either case.

Drivers that can help D82:
Trulli: all points scored in Abu.

D82's twelve point lead certainly is vulnerable; a Hamilton win would erase eleven of those points and then three thinkable points scorers could make the final push to give Grayson the title instead. D82 will really hope for a strong weekend for Trulli!

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#2 AcuraF1

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Posted 20 October 2009 - 14:01

I guess I'm not defending my championship :lol: