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If Schumacher wins in first 3 gps ....


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#1 mistergagaX

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Posted 17 January 2010 - 22:40

History is a good measuring rod for predicting the future ... In every season that Michael Schumacher has won any of his titles, he was able to manage a win in the first 3 gps of that particular season ... The only exception I remember is in 2003 when it took Schumacher up the 4th Grand Prix to get his first win ...

1994 : 3 out of 3
1995 : 1 out of 3
2000 : 3 out of 3
2001 : 2 out of 3
2002 : 2 out of 3
2003 : MS got his 1st win at the 4th GP (San Marino)
2004 : 3 out of 3

So if Schumacher does what is expected of him and wins his first GP of 2010 in the first 3 fly away-races then the chances of him fighting for the world title looks good indeed ... Any thoughts ??

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#2 scheivlak

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Posted 17 January 2010 - 22:45

In 1998 and 1999 Schumi did win one of the first three GPs as well  ;)

#3 undersquare

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Posted 17 January 2010 - 22:46

Michael will tire as the season goes on.

Also McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull will out-develop the low-budget Mercedes.

#4 GiancarloF1

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Posted 17 January 2010 - 22:57

Michael will tire as the season goes on.

Also McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull will out-develop the low-budget Mercedes.


I expect the opposite. He will start slowly with finding his feet in these new cars, but after 4-5 GPs he will start doing well.

#5 Nuvol

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Posted 17 January 2010 - 22:58

Too much depends on the car really.

#6 Seanspeed

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Posted 17 January 2010 - 23:04

So if Schumacher does what is expected of him and wins his first GP of 2010 in the first 3 fly away-races then the chances of him fighting for the world title looks good indeed ... Any thoughts ??

Duh. Anybody who has a car good enough to win races at the beginning of the season will more often than not have a good shot at the title.

Same could be said for most any other driver, really.

#7 MARDRU

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Posted 17 January 2010 - 23:05

In this case, Brawn will be crowned the f1 king.

Edited by MARDRU, 17 January 2010 - 23:08.


#8 estoril85

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Posted 17 January 2010 - 23:08

not a MS fan but i fully expect him to take pole and win first time out

#9 SeanValen

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Posted 17 January 2010 - 23:12

I expect the opposite. He will start slowly with finding his feet in these new cars, but after 4-5 GPs he will start doing well.



If it were any other f1 year and season, I would expect him to start strong, but this testing ban means February is his important month, he should be testing now ideally, old cars and stuff, not GP2 cars, but he's been forced too, so being out of action for 3 years as well added to the testing ban means he won't be able to make the progress as rapidley as pounding out the laps at Floriano in the ferrari until sunset, those days are over, it's another challenge, but again alot depends on the car, if it's born good, he'll have a base to understand the rules and things, it has problems and it's a testing ban, then that's maybe why he's signed a 3 year deal just in case.

The only advantage the testing ban has for Schumi, it probabley allows him more time off, which might not be such a bad thing, especially if it's a long tough season.

As for the stats in winning one of the first gps, it's not really that profound, they haven't changed the points system, which means even if Schu got 2 2nd places and 1 3rd, that's not bad either, the important thing now is finishing and scoring points, the winner in the current points system does matter, but it's not as important to win as to get 2 nd places which is as good as winning 1 race really, the reason Michael almost lost 2003 was the points system, at times it looked like he was better off with the new points system, but he could of gotten the title at Indy with a win rather then chase a point in Japan, the points system and season 2003 in general, changing rules, changing quali set off a era of f1 rules tickering that were still trying to correct.

Anything can happen in formula one and it usually does.

Edited by SeanValen, 17 January 2010 - 23:14.


#10 Slartibartfast

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Posted 17 January 2010 - 23:58

History is a good measuring rod for predicting the future ... In every season that Michael Schumacher has won any of his titles, he was able to manage a win in the first 3 gps of that particular season ... The only exception I remember is in 2003 when it took Schumacher up the 4th Grand Prix to get his first win ...

1994 : 3 out of 3
1995 : 1 out of 3
2000 : 3 out of 3
2001 : 2 out of 3
2002 : 2 out of 3
2003 : MS got his 1st win at the 4th GP (San Marino)
2004 : 3 out of 3

So if Schumacher does what is expected of him and wins his first GP of 2010 in the first 3 fly away-races then the chances of him fighting for the world title looks good indeed ... Any thoughts ??

Statistically, the winner of the first race of the season should be the favourite. In the last 20 years, the winner has gone on to become champion 16 times. If anything, less should be read into Schumacher's first three results, as he is the only champion in that time not to have won one of the first three races of a season.
Of course, these statistics are meaningless for predicting the future without some underlying reasoning that explains the causes.

Anything can happen in formula one and it usually does.

:up:


#11 mistergagaX

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 00:10

In 1998 and 1999 Schumi did win one of the first three GPs as well ;)


in 1999 he broke his leg and most would say he was going to win the title that year

in 1998 he took it to the wire all the way to suzuka but one could argue that MS lost his chance when collided with DC at SPA ...

If he wins early in 2010 it means the Mercedes package is good enough to net him his 8th title me thinx ....


#12 scheivlak

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 00:21

in 1999 he broke his leg and most would say he was going to win the title that year

in 1998 he took it to the wire all the way to suzuka but one could argue that MS lost his chance when collided with DC at SPA ...

Why did I mention 1998 and 1999? Because you wrote: "History is a good measuring rod for predicting the future"

I would say -e.g. in your case- that people use certain historical facts to their advantage while disregard those facts that contradict their views  ;)

Michael's 2003 WDC win was the first and only time since 1989 BTW that a WDC winner did not win one of the first three GPs - so he's the exception here :D

#13 helioseism

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 00:56

Numerology is crap.

#14 Mauseri

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 01:02

So if Schumacher does what is expected of him and wins his first GP of 2010 in the first 3 fly away-races then the chances of him fighting for the world title looks good indeed ... Any thoughts ??

It looks good for anybody who wins the first 3 GP, doesn't it? Specially if it's not the same driver in P2 all the time!

#15 ff1600

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 04:32

If he has the car under him MS will win by mid-season. He will need alittle time to get use to wheele to wheel racing and get confrontable with soe of the new drivers. Remember there are guys who race MS and don't care about his rep. they have something to prove also.

#16 Sakae

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 05:24

Meanwhile I wonder if Michael doesn't win first three races subsequently we will face a thread "I told you so, Michael is over the hill and finish"!

#17 PassWind

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 05:33

Michael will tire as the season goes on.

Also McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull will out-develop the low-budget Mercedes.


Why would Mercedes be considered low budget, if they make a fast car I am sure there will be enough money available to ensure season long competitiveness. It was also clear that Brawn had the capacity to update the car and also learn from its mistakes, so if the car is good look out grid. I am also expecting terror from both of their drivers as well if the car meets the expectations.




#18 ferruccio

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 06:45

Why would Mercedes be considered low budget, if they make a fast car I am sure there will be enough money available to ensure season long competitiveness. It was also clear that Brawn had the capacity to update the car and also learn from its mistakes, so if the car is good look out grid. I am also expecting terror from both of their drivers as well if the car meets the expectations.


Agreed. I don't consider Mercedes as a low budget team either. I think Brawn has allocated sufficient resources last year(diverting from 2009 car) to ensure the new 2010 car maintains the team's competitiveness and I suspect this was before they could rely on new resources from Mercedes which now promises to keep their in-season development going strong


#19 cheapracer

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 07:20

I expect the opposite. He will start slowly with finding his feet in these new cars, but after 4-5 GPs he will start doing well.


I agree, it will take him some races to fit into the current game plan after 3 years out, he is great but not superhuman.

Even with a competitive car this season start may be too much of a handicap for the 2010 WDC.

I would like to see him 2 years in and get 100 GPs, may even be one of his targets.


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#20 Zdeus

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 08:10

Michael will tire as the season goes on.

Also McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull will out-develop the low-budget Mercedes.


From what I know , some staff that was laid off in 2009 is getting back to Meredes GP factory. Also the margin to develop on top of an awesome 2009 car is not of "n" magnitude. So the impact development through the season will have is going to be less than what we saw in 2009.

And I don't quite think the budget is as low as you would want to believe - this is ofcourse based on recruitment happening at Merc GP.

EDIT : - There is also the advantage of Michael's feedback and him being part of development. It is one of his skill. The partnership will be more efficient than the competition - bar Redbull (due to consistency)

Edited by Ravindra Nagpurkar, 18 January 2010 - 08:58.


#21 undersquare

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 08:16

Agreed. I don't consider Mercedes as a low budget team either. I think Brawn has allocated sufficient resources last year(diverting from 2009 car) to ensure the new 2010 car maintains the team's competitiveness and I suspect this was before they could rely on new resources from Mercedes which now promises to keep their in-season development going strong


Well there were quotes around when they were buying Brawn that the whole plan by Mercedes was to spend less money on F1, I can't remember the exact figures but I got the impression no more than £50m, plus what they could get in sponsorship.

So just because Merc is a huge company doesn't mean their Board is going to give them a huge budget, there are some Board members who wanted them to pull out altogether. Apparently they're not paying MS at all, he's sponsored directly.


#22 undersquare

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 08:35

From what I know , some staff that was laid off in 2009 is getting back to Meredes GP factory. Also the margin to develop on top of an awesome 2009 car is not of "n" magnitude. So the impact development through the season will have is going to be less than what we saw in 2009.

And I don't quite think the budget is as low as you would want to believe - this is ofcourse based on recruitment happening at Merc GP.


Oh, interesting. Well I suppose they might have changed their minds. Even a Mercedes Benz Board member could get excited at the thought of running Michael Schumacher.

#23 Youichi

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 09:04

Meanwhile I wonder if Michael doesn't win first three races subsequently we will face a thread "I told you so, Michael is over the hill and finish"!


You think it'll be three races ? We'll see such a thread when he's not in the top 4 on the grid at the first race.

#24 kar

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 09:47

Michael will tire as the season goes on.

Also McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull will out-develop the low-budget Mercedes.


I think quite the opposite. Michael tends to start strong, have a bit of a burp in the middle, then finish strong. Unless he wraps up the title by Hungary of course :-)

#25 Owen

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 10:07

We may be getting ahead of ourselves here. Let's just wait and see, no?

#26 kar

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 10:08

Nah, let's continue baseless speculation and prognostication. It's much more fun :-)

#27 pgj

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 10:15

Michael has never lost his appetite for racing. He said that at the time of his retirement. He went to to great lengths to say that he had not fallen out of love with F1. I suppose that is why he has been such a regular face on the pit-wall. He lost the appetite for the physical preparation and conditioning that he needed to put in in order to be the Michael that we all came to know. Getting back to that level with the impact that it will have on all aspects of his life will not be easy. It will be even more difficult to sustain for the whole season.

I hope that his return is successful. However, there are too many unknown variables to make any sensible prediction of how his season will pan-out. Not even Michael can make a bad car into a race winner. Any talk of race wins at this time is premature and talk of championships is ridiculous.

#28 Captain Tightpants

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 10:15

So if Schumacher does what is expected of him and wins his first GP of 2010 in the first 3 fly away-races then the chances of him fighting for the world title looks good indeed ... Any thoughts ??

Yeah: you're assuming that what held true in the past holds true now. There are plenty of factors that can throw your predictions out.

#29 Owen

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 10:43

Nah, let's continue baseless speculation and prognostication. It's much more fun :-)

Have fun then. :wave:

#30 stormshadow

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 12:08

If he has the car under him MS will win by mid-season. He will need alittle time to get use to wheele to wheel racing and get confrontable with soe of the new drivers. Remember there are guys who race MS and don't care about his rep. they have something to prove also.

Remember Michael racing wheel to wheel with a certain Juan Montoya at Brazil, San Marino and Monza ?
Its not like this is new to him and that he's gonna be surprised.

#31 Orin

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 12:14

Michael will tire as the season goes on.

Also McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull will out-develop the low-budget Mercedes.


Merc are giving it all the "low budget" talk for now, but I wonder how long that will last? BAR/Honda/Brawn have never shown themselves capable of matching the development pace of the top 3 teams.

As for the OP, Schumacher should be content to make 1 podium in the first 3 races! :lol:

#32 cheapracer

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 12:22

Nah, let's continue baseless speculation and prognostication. It's much more fun :-)



Alright!!! In total agreement there!! :clap:

#33 Jackmancer

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 12:45

In 1998 and 1999 Schumi did win one of the first three GPs as well ;)


Hehe, but in those years Mercedes still won the championship :)

#34 FlatOverCrest

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 18:30

not a MS fan but i fully expect him to take pole and win first time out


Not sure about Pole... but Yep.... I am wagering a win at the very first race!

#35 Tufty

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 18:46

I think quite the opposite. Michael tends to start strong, have a bit of a burp in the middle, then finish strong. Unless he wraps up the title by Hungary of course :-)

I agree with you in terms of the PAST, but I doubt Schumi will have that strong start you seem to expect, since he has ben out of F1 for so long. The strong finish, on the other hand, I do expect, car permitting.

#36 Kenaltgr

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 21:23

Meanwhile I wonder if Michael doesn't win first three races subsequently we will face a thread "I told you so, Michael is over the hill and finish"!


Not over the hill, just facing a stronger field that any other year of his career.

#37 Owen

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 21:45

You may think he'll win the first 3 races but Brawn has him down for the championship... already
http://www.autosport...rt.php/id/80955



#38 salamin

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 21:52

You may think he'll win the first 3 races but Brawn has him down for the championship... already
http://www.autosport...rt.php/id/80955


some parts of the interview are clearly misquoted

#39 Mandzipop

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 22:13

This is my take on it.

Schumacher's strengths were to drive round issues (adaptability), physical fitness, race awareness, being meticulous, hunger to win and being consistent.

I dont think his attitude will change regarding being meticulous. That is a no brainer. So that is one tick.

Being able to drive round issues, cant see that one changing.

Physical ability, that might be a little bit of an issue, however I wouldn't be suprised if he has been ensuring that his fitness is not far off the rest of the guys on the grid.

Race awareness, that is the iffy one, however he has continued to race in varying forms just not F1. I Think it will take a few races to get that one back up to speed in an F1 car.

Being consistent, again a bit iffy, depends on his neck, however I think that will inprove over the season.

Hunger to win, total tick there as that has never disappeared.

The one thing that could cause a problem is the car. If the car is good enough I can see him winning by the 3rd race. If the car is really good I can see him taking the title. He wants an 8th title, and if the car is there I think he will get it. It is his mindset. We all know he is ruthless, and if he is just as ruthless as he was before, then he will win as soon as the opportunity comes. He is probably the most ruthless driver on the grid. If the car is comparible to last years Brawn like it was at the beginning of the season from the off, he will win and domintate from the 2nd race. However if that car is on the front row, then he'll win it. However quali is not one of his strengths. So unless the car is fast out of the box he wont win the first race.

I also doubt he will win a wet race. Not enough recent practice.

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#40 MikeTekRacing

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 22:18

However quali is not one of his strengths.

surely not
how many front row starts does he have?5? 6?

#41 Jan.W

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 22:29

surely not
how many front row starts does he have?5? 6?

:up: :lol:


#42 undersquare

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 22:32

I think he'll start strong. He always has, with preparation, all his experience, and that natural ability to be fast. He's been quick in karts and RoC as we've seen. He'll have some testing and be fully prepared having done a lot of hard work and using his intelligence. I think his first laps will have him on the pace.

I think his age will catch up with him during the season though. The energy levels will drain more than the young guys, there will be more mistakes and the intensity will drop a little.

I add that to a slight drop in pace, from small deteriorations in fine muscle control, coordination, reaction time etc etc.

And I suspect the car will have to be set up softer to protect his neck and back.

So my guess is he needs a slight car advantage to beat Lewis, Fernando and Seb. The problem is that he has all those three to beat, chances are at least one of those will have an equal or better car.

#43 Jan.W

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 22:36

So my guess is he needs a slight car advantage to beat Lewis, Fernando and Seb.

The question is , if he beats these youngs guns without having the best car, will you admit it, or is your post already an excuse ?


#44 Mandzipop

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 22:37

surely not
how many front row starts does he have?5? 6?


How many of his wins have been from pole? Definately not all of them.

Considering the amount of races he has raced, he's not I would call a quali specialist. He is fairly decent at working his way up the field. Although Monaco 2006 was marred by his quali, his race was fantastic. He went from 22nd to 5th in a dry Monaco. He was held up for 19 laps (if my memory serves me correct) by Button. I know strategy helped, but strategy in a dry Monaco is not enough. To me, that was one of his best races. A pity he spoilt it with quali.

#45 ZZMS

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 22:40

yeah, his qualy stats vs. his teammates surely suck, be it spec cars, one-lap fuel or race fuel loads. All suck.

#46 undersquare

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 22:48

The question is , if he beats these youngs guns without having the best car, will you admit it, or is your post already an excuse ?


Excuse for what?

You've done this before, why can't you think clearly about it? BECAUSE I think age has cost him a bit so that now he needs a car advantage, if Michael wins with an equal car then it will be vastly impressive.

#47 POLAR

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 22:55

He will not be the same.
There`s the age thing, the field is much harder, and he is not familiar with the way these low grip, no tc cars behave anymore.
This comeback thing is a big mistake, a no win situation.

Best of luck to him anyway

#48 JPW

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 23:04

I think he'll start strong. He always has, with preparation, all his experience, and that natural ability to be fast. He's been quick in karts and RoC as we've seen. He'll have some testing and be fully prepared having done a lot of hard work and using his intelligence. I think his first laps will have him on the pace.

Yes he'll be well prepared and his first outings in FP and qualy should be OK but I expect him to need some time to get back to racing in a full field of 26 cars.

I think his age will catch up with him during the season though. The energy levels will drain more than the young guys, there will be more mistakes and the intensity will drop a little.

I think Michael will know what drains his energy most, often that is sponsor obligations, press and travel.
Fortunately he's in a position to arrange all those things the way he sees fit.

And I suspect the car will have to be set up softer to protect his neck and back.

Right, even 100% or 200% softer setups won't do sh*t for your back in an F1 car :lol:


#49 undersquare

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 23:26

Yes he'll be well prepared and his first outings in FP and qualy should be OK but I expect him to need some time to get back to racing in a full field of 26 cars.


I think Michael will know what drains his energy most, often that is sponsor obligations, press and travel.
Fortunately he's in a position to arrange all those things the way he sees fit.


Right, even 100% or 200% softer setups won't do sh*t for your back in an F1 car :lol:


Oh OK. Level playing field, then. (if he qualifies well he'll only have to worry about racing 6 cars or so, won't he?)

#50 BullHead

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 23:58

Err... won't happen. (IMO) :)