64 replies to this topic

[ZenSpeed]

Moss this week made some clear predictions regarding 2010. To summarize:

- Schumi will struggle to get back to form; Alonso or Vettel will win the WDC


I personally don't think we can foresee anything, it's F1, all can happen. But I am astounded he wouldn't even consider a McLaren driver, 2 WDC at it!!!

Personally, I think the favorite for 2010, on paper, is Lewis Hamilton and I will explain.

I am almost sure the 2010 WDC winner will be one of the following: Schumacher; Alonso; Massa; Vettel; Button; Hamilton. Underdogs with a chance: Webber; Rosberg.

My analysis is based first and foremost on the "expected" competitiveness of the cars. Ferrari, McLaren, Brawn/Mercedes, and Red Bull seem to be at the forefront, at least on paper, at this point. Out of their 8 drivers, I took out first Webber, because he has been outperformed by his teammate last year, notwithstanding the experience differenatial, then Rosberg, because it's his first season with a potentially winning car and he still needs to experience the pressure of being at the top. Maybe next year, but I would be surprised if he takes the title in his first Mercedes season.

Schumacher is a big unknown. Nobody questions his driving skills, but three full seasons out in today's F1 is a lifetime. We saw how the almost winner of Spa struggled to adapt to a different more complex car, when Fisi passed to Ferrari. And he was a current driver, not someone returning. Despite the difference in talent between Fisi and Schumi, I cannot see how Schumi can adapt immediately to his new car without months of testing. He will most likely get back to his level, but by then, it might be too late for the WDC. Maybe in 2011.

Vettel is a great talent and now he has experience racing at the front and competing against the best best for wins. It all comes down to his car and team, but I think he is ready for the next step. If Red Bull delivers, I think he will too. He is my 2nd favorite for the WDC race.

The 2 Ferrari drivers are both with chances for the title if the car is good. But that is a question mark, the cars have been underperforming in 2009 and there is no guarantee they will be at the top. Even so, Massa is returning after a serious injury and missed a full six months of racing/testing. It's a long break, it might take 2-3 races to be back to be the good old Felipe. Alonso is a fighter and adapts to different cars easily, but he is new to the team and its methods. There sure is a learning curve there, i cannot imagine Freddie?Ferrari realizing their full potential until 3-5 races into the season. Considering how close everyone is at the top, it might be too late for the WDC.

That leaves us with the Mac drivers. again, both have great chances to be WDC, the team might produce the car to beat in 2010. However, I see Button having to undergo a similar process to what i described above for Alonso at Ferrari. That leaves Lewis. He is a top talent, he knows the team and its personnel in and out, if the car is good, I doubt he can be beaten, he doesn't have any of the potential handicaps of his direct competitors. In my eyes, on paper, he is the favorite for 2010.

Of course, the above is all speculative, anything can happen: Schumi doesn't struggle to adapt; Alonso and Button immediately develop great working relationships with their new teams, etc.

But if I had to bet money on it, as per above, I would rank their chances of winning the WDC as below:

1) Hamilton
2) Vettel
3) Alonso
4) Massa
5) Button
6) Schumacher
7) Webber
8) Rosberg

Of course, I hope I am wrong and that Ferrari will win it. But I am being realistic here. What's your take?

[BullHead]

Vettel
Hamilton
Alonso
Schumacher
Button
Massa

[potmotr]

His name is Stirling Moss.

[craftverk]

why doesn't he take the cars into account? If the Mercedes turns out to be the quickest then Schumacher is certainly the favorite

[BullHead]

Sir Stirling Moss if you don't mind. Still, "ol' Sterlin" has a certain charm to it.

[BullHead]

why doesn't he take the cars into account? If the Mercedes turns out to be the quickest then Schumacher is certainly the favorite

He is. Mercedes wont be the quickest.

[FSA]

I'm not getting into predictions (especially by Stirling Moss) until after the winter testing is done. Only then will we know who are the three fastest teams. I certainly share your hope that four or five drivers actually compete for the drivers' championship this season. That would be amazing to watch, and the title likely would not be decided till the last two races of the season.

[ZenSpeed]

Sir Stirling Moss if you don't mind. Still, "ol' Sterlin" has a certain charm to it.

Sorry for misspelling his first name, as far as titles go, I find them ludicrous. So yes, Stirling Moss it is

[ZenSpeed]

He is. Mercedes wont be the quickest.

[britishtrident]

His name is Stirling Moss.

If you know him as well as Martin Brundle it is just "Stirl"

[MegaManson]

It is Hamilton's title to lose, only he can lose it no one else can win it

[ZenSpeed]

It is Hamilton's title to lose, only he can lose it no one else can win it

if the car is good, of course

[Korben82]

I think the three more likely to win the WDC are

Hamilton
Alonso
Schumacher

the rest is a mixed bag. Vettel is good, but was stuck last year countless time behind a slower car and couldn't overtake to save his life. Plus, lots of unforced errors. He should be vastly superior to Webber, yet he hasn't been.

Rosberg doesn't stand a chance against a combination of Schumacher and Brawn. Same with Button and Massa, they are fast, but their teammates are their respective teams darlings and are quite battle-hardened. I can't envision Button beating Hamilton on points at the end of the year, or Massa beating Alonso. Sure, they'll have some good races, but overall, the superior racecraft of Lewis and Fernando will rise to the top (relative to their cars' speed).

[ZenSpeed]

I think the three more likely to win the WDC are

Hamilton
Alonso
Schumacher

the rest is a mixed bag. Vettel is good, but was stuck last year countless time behind a slower car and couldn't overtake to save his life. Plus, lots of unforced errors. He should be vastly superior to Webber, yet he hasn't been.

Rosberg doesn't stand a chance against a combination of Schumacher and Brawn. Same with Button and Massa, they are fast, but their teammates are their respective teams darlings and are quite battle-hardened. I can't envision Button beating Hamilton on points at the end of the year, or Massa beating Alonso. Sure, they'll have some good races, but overall, the superior racecraft of Lewis and Fernando will rise to the top (relative to their cars' speed).

I only disagree on your analysis of Vettel. He was still a kid in his first competitive season in F1. I am sure he will be a much stronger contender this year

[santori]

I don't think many would object to a moderator editing the spelling of a title but to slap on a 'Sir', especially when the poster has objected to it, is a bit much.

[P123]

It is Hamilton's title to lose, only he can lose it no one else can win it

Based on......?

[Raincoat]

Based on......?

Being the best driver in f1. All the bookmakers agree

[mkay]

I only disagree on your analysis of Vettel. He was still a kid in his first competitive season in F1. I am sure he will be a much stronger contender this year

He was in the same situation Hamilton was in in 2007 and Hamilton did not have problem passing people. Heck, he passed 1 or 2 drivers at the FIRST corner of his FIRST GP.

[Mandzipop]

He was in the same situation Hamilton was in in 2007 and Hamilton did not have problem passing people. Heck, he passed 1 or 2 drivers at the FIRST corner of his FIRST GP.

That RBR struggled to pass anyway. Also a lot of times he was stuck behind a slower car, it ended up being a KERS car, which are pretty hard to pass.

[Muz Bee]

I don't think many would object to a moderator editing the spelling of a title but to slap on a 'Sir', especially when the poster has objected to it, is a bit much.

I agree, I think it overbearing, as is the honours system the way it practiced in modern times (they don't even seem to bother stripping titles from disgraced capitalist fraudsters). But back on topic, ahem...

I expect the No 1 - sorry top driver! - at each of the leading teams to be in the mix for WDC. We can hardly know which team will have the best car but going on momentum I would say McLaren should be very good. Most people seem to agree Hamilton is early favourite. I think Red Bull have plenty of momentum and structure so I place Vettel as second-favourite. Schumacher teaming up with Ross Brawn will be formidable and Rosberg will play the back up role (against his will of course). I think Schumie will come good pretty quick - make him 3rd in WDC - but I don't like the look of the Ferrari organisation. They have a 2xWDC and a driver who used to be quick but has had a brain injury. Ferrari have lost much of the dream team cohesion and simply looked dreadful last year. They have also sadly fallen into slightly chaotic politics so I expect them to be no better than 3rd or 4th in WCC.

Of the others Button will struggle because McLaren will supply a quite "taily" car to suit Hamilton's style. This Button will not get to grips with. Webber will deliver his usual professional high standards but will start to struggle against his younger teammate who will settle into a greater consistency.

Hamilton
Vettel
Schumacher
Webber
Alonso
Rosberg
Button
Barichello
Schumacher

[SAFC09]

Being the best driver in f1. All the bookmakers agree

Some bookies had Liverpool as favourites to win the Premier League, and that's gone tits up

[SAFC09]

That RBR struggled to pass anyway

It didn't stop Webber

[ZenSpeed]

He was in the same situation Hamilton was in in 2007 and Hamilton did not have problem passing people. Heck, he passed 1 or 2 drivers at the FIRST corner of his FIRST GP.

Hamilton tossed it away, didn't he? in the same situation today, Lewis would restrain from going wheel to wheel with Alonso during the last 2 GPs, knowing he is in the lead. That's why rookies rarely come out on top. Vettel performed several passes throughout the season and had problems like everyone else passing at times. We have seen Rubens and Button struggle at time passing cars when they were stuck behind. I believe you are underestimating the German

[ZenSpeed]

Some bookies had Liverpool as favourites to win the Premier League, and that's gone tits up

[ZenSpeed]

It didn't stop Webber

....from being outscored bu Vettel........

[Korben82]

I only disagree on your analysis of Vettel. He was still a kid in his first competitive season in F1. I am sure he will be a much stronger contender this year

Yeah, I'm not saying by any means that he's bad. I do believe he'll be much better this year, but I think he'll still won't be up to the consistent level displayed by Hamilton or Alonso. However, the kid's got a bright future ahead of him. He's gotta keep learning, and try not to listen to some people (I'm not refering to anybody in particular, but to a general feeling at times in boards like these) that hail him as Schumacher reincarnated.

[undersquare]

The only reason I can think of for Moss not to mention Lewis or Jenson is that he didn't want to add to the hype. Not that these old drivers know any more than the rest of us, but they get asked and quoted.

Not sure about dismissing Ferrari, the car was the best kers/single D car last year, until they stopped development. Fernando was 2, 1 in his first two races for McLaren so I don't think he'll take long to get settled in, either.

Seb will be strong, I don't see him repeating the mistakes of last year.

Michael, I have doubts about but we'll just have to see. For me, the age has to have an effect.

Lewis is favourite, if the cars are equal, he's the complete F1 driver in such an extreme way.

[ZenSpeed]

I don't think many would object to a moderator editing the spelling of a title but to slap on a 'Sir', especially when the poster has objected to it, is a bit much.

It's a British magazine, after all, and these things seem somehow to still matter in England, despite the more pressing issues facing the country today.

[One]

Could very well be, but who am I?


GP2 car drviing slower than Kamui was a question mark.

[Raincoat]

Some bookies had Liverpool as favourites to win the Premier League, and that's gone tits up

BS! i Checked all the English Prem odds befgore the season started and they were not in the top 2. Man Utd and Chelsea top 2. Which bookmakers...we can still check past odds via google cache

[ZenSpeed]

Not sure about dismissing Ferrari, the car was the best kers/single D car last year, until they stopped development. Fernando was 2, 1 in his first two races for McLaren so I don't think he'll take long to get settled in, either.

of course I hope you are 100% right

[Sausage]

His name is Stirling Moss.

No it´s: Sir Stirling Craufurd Moss OBE. Mods do it right if you do it at all

[Mandzipop]

It didn't stop Webber

I think I read that there were in total 168 overtakes last year (not including the 1st laps). 60 were in China alone. As Vettel led from start to finish, that eliminates the one race where there were lots of overtaking. So that leaves 108 between the entire field of 20. Anything more than 5 was a good tally. He won 4 from effective pole position, so in his case anything over 2 would work as a good ratio within the law of averages. The Brawn car was good at overtaking so that probably made up quite a number of the overtaking moves of the season. Off the top of my head I think he pulled off 3 official overtaking moves, so that is above the average.

Disclaimer My mind works in mysterious ways.

[Korben82]

I think I read that there were in total 168 overtakes last year (not including the 1st laps). 60 were in China alone. As Vettel led from start to finish, that eliminates the one race where there were lots of overtaking. So that leaves 108 between the entire field of 20. Anything more than 5 was a good tally. He won 4 from effective pole position, so in his case anything over 2 would work as a good ratio within the law of averages. The Brawn car was good at overtaking so that probably made up quite a number of the overtaking moves of the season. Off the top of my head I think he pulled off 3 official overtaking moves, so that is above the average.

Disclaimer My mind works in mysterious ways.

There's something seriously wrong with F1 when 3 overtaking moves over the entire course of a season is considered good

[MegaManson]

Based on......?

So that I can bash him if he doesn't win ;) j/k

Nah I think it is certain McLaren will be the best car in 2010 so Hamilton will win title

Red Bull - Going to miss testing, things seem behind schedule
Ferrari - Alonso has to get used to the car and Massa has to again after injury
Mercedes - Rosberg will be lapdog and I have doubts if Schumi will be as quick as people think

[ZenSpeed]

No it´s: Sir Stirling Craufurd Moss OBE. Mods do it right if you do it at all

OBE 1 Kanobe?

[undersquare]

I think I read that there were in total 168 overtakes last year (not including the 1st laps). 60 were in China alone. As Vettel led from start to finish, that eliminates the one race where there were lots of overtaking. So that leaves 108 between the entire field of 20. Anything more than 5 was a good tally. He won 4 from effective pole position, so in his case anything over 2 would work as a good ratio within the law of averages. The Brawn car was good at overtaking so that probably made up quite a number of the overtaking moves of the season. Off the top of my head I think he pulled off 3 official overtaking moves, so that is above the average.

Disclaimer My mind works in mysterious ways.

Yeah it really depended on circumstances, Webbo notched up quite a number of overtakes trying to get clear of Hammy

[Mandzipop]

There's something seriously wrong with F1 when 3 overtaking moves over the entire course of a season is considered good

If you do the maths then you can see my point. He was above average on overtaking.

Yes the OWG cocked up, big style!

[P123]

So that I can bash him if he doesn't win ;) j/k

Nah I think it is certain McLaren will be the best car in 2010 so Hamilton will win title

Red Bull - Going to miss testing, things seem behind schedule
Ferrari - Alonso has to get used to the car and Massa has to again after injury
Mercedes - Rosberg will be lapdog and I have doubts if Schumi will be as quick as people think

I wouldn't underestimate Newey and Red Bull. They maintained their pace troughout last season and Newey cars are always late. McLaren more or less caught up but they designed a dog of a car last year with terrible aero which took a long time to sort. They have also lost KERS. Ferrari are a bit of a dark horse and Brawn/Merc will still be strong. It's wide open, at the moment.

[Muz Bee]

It's a British magazine, after all, and these things seem somehow to still matter in England, despite the more pressing issues facing the country today.

Oh yes of course, I see!
And I totally agree it's their publication to do what they think is right.
I just found it interesting that this is still the way many think.
I got to interview two motor racing "Sir"s in one day at Melbourne and didn't use the S word once! Didn't seem to mind a bit!

[Ghostrider]

In Formula 1 it is basically down to the cars to separate the drivers.

Button won WDC last year remember?

Edited by Ghostrider, 19 January 2010 - 22:06.

[ZenSpeed]

Oh yes of course, I see!
And I totally agree it's their publication to do what they think is right.
I just found it interesting that this is still the way many think.
I got to interview two motor racing "Sir"s in one day at Melbourne and didn't use the S word once! Didn't seem to mind a bit!

of course not, do you really think the drivers give a rat's ass if one day they will be appointed as Sir by the old lady? come on, Button raced this year to fulfill his life dream and the only title he cares about seeing near his name is WDC

[Muz Bee]

of course not, do you really think the drivers give a rat's ass if one day they will be appointed as Sir by the old lady? come on, Button raced this year to fulfill his life dream and the only title he cares about seeing near his name is WDC

Exactly and the notion of people deferring to others because of a title is somehow ridiculous in a modern democracy. Oh well, quaint I spose. I still think the monarchy is a handy practical thing in place - whoops Off Topic! I don't imagine Stirl expects us to regard his opinion as any more valid than our own on the WDC, but I may be wrong.

[pgj]

I am looking forward to seeing a Newey RBR car that does not have its design concept compromised. From start to finish, RBR had the most consistent car last season. As usual Mark gets overlooked, so I will put a vote in for Vettel.

[Garagiste]

One's opinion on the honours system is of no import - "Sir" is Stirling's title, no different to Dr Jonathan Palmer.
Back OT, I think the OP is a pretty fair analysis, but it's always the car. Just hope they're pretty close in performance and we get many contenders for the title. I agree with Brundle that this has the potential to be a great season.
But then I think that every year, must be my optimist streak!

[d246]

Oh yes of course, I see!
And I totally agree it's their publication to do what they think is right.
I just found it interesting that this is still the way many think.
I got to interview two motor racing "Sir"s in one day at Melbourne and didn't use the S word once! Didn't seem to mind a bit!

Yes, usually only those with chips on their sholder, like Alan Sugar, insist on it.

[fed up]

I will start off by writing off Michael - no way, he is too old. He'll have his handful with Rosberg not to talk about Hamilton, Alonso, Vettel et al. Don't be surprised if he does a Mansell and bails out if things aren't going his way - superstars should always stay retired - comebacks should be left to films like Rocky etc or for fun like Armstrong.

Alonso has a chance, but his temperament is suspect and Massa will cause him to lose his head on more than one occasion. Ferrari also gave up on developing last year's car so there is a danger that the lack of testing will slow them down, at least initially.

Redbull have the driver in Vettel but I'm not sure he has the temperarment to handle the pressue of expectation. It's ok being regarded as an outside chance, it's a different matter being one of the favourites. He is too nice IMO, but I accept he could deliver on his vast promise. They will also miss the first test, so either they are super confident or they're behind with development - we shall see.

Lewis & Button are favourites IMO. The Mclaren was one of the best cars in the later part of 2009. If Redbull and Mercedes have a similar drop in performance that Ferrari & Mclaren suffered last year, Mclaren could be well placed to pick up the baton. Hamilton will own Button, of course.

Hamilton is therefore my favourite although I accept that in F1 the only certainty is uncertainity

Simples

[Johny Bravo]

It is Hamilton's title to lose, only he can lose it no one else can win it

He damn sure can lose it (18pts leading/2 races 2 go).

[Owen]

He damn sure can lose it (18pts leading/2 races 2 go).

He's in good company. Schumacher and Button have both been accused of not being good 'under pressure'.

[Orin]

The Red Bull is likeliest to be the strongest car next year as they finished 2010 so strongly, and Vettel is rapidly coming of age so I expect him to be a very strong contender. Both McLaren and Ferrari produced poor cars last year, but I suspect the changes to the technical regs are sufficiently limited that they will be able to field decent KERS-free cars this year and mount strong challenges - of all the teams these two are the best at in-season development. Mercedes? Unless they've found another loophole (and they won't have) I doubt they can field a car to match Red Bull and I also doubt they can match the development pace of the top teams, they never managed to do so when they were Honda. Therefore I think Moss' predictions look pretty good to me, but I hope (and believe) Hamilton will be in contention too - though perhaps the McLaren (and Ferrari for that matter) will need a few races to get up to the Red Bull's level.

Vettel WDC 2010.