I think all four will compete, at least for the first couple of races. Only question marks to me seem to be over USF1 and Campos. Lotus as you say has good backup and professional grounding. So too I reckon has Virgin (good money) Manor (good professional crew). USF1 appear to be doing things, just a bit slowly and PR wise confusingly. Campos, I don't know, but their name keeps coming up in media negatively like USF1. If 2 or 3 of the new teams don't make the full season, I'll be a little surprised, but if one of them didn't even make the first race, I'll be very surprised.
Andrea Moda, Eifelland, EuroBrun, Fondmetal, Kauhsen, Life, Lola, Onyx, Pacific, Token, etc etc
Not to mention Virgin GP, err, I mean Simtek.
The number of startups failing vastly outnumbers the manufacturers failures.
Virgin hasn't got good money. Branson, the tight arsed bastard that he is, offered only his brand, not his cash.
The money Branson is putting into Manor wouldn't buy a helmet sticker in a real team.
Campos will go Arrows way, even with selling half his company to A1GP man. USF1 are highly unlikely to turn up to Bahrain 2010, let alone 2012. Windsor and Branson should team up. The amount of hot air that Windsor creates could make a balloon for Branson that actually makes the cut.