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[Makarias]

The standings after the Bahrain GP:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) AcuraF1 101 101
= an1res 101 101
= Anderis 101 101
= Apex 101 101
= arcsine 101 101
= August 101 101
= Brawn BGP 001 101 101
= Costaz 101 101
= coyoteBR 101 101
= Crazy Canuck 101 101
= D82 101 101
= dnbn 101 101
= Estwald 101 101
= fisichella_2001 101 101
= gerry nassar 101 101
= Grayson 101 101
= jeze 101 101
= jokuvaan 101 101
= jonnyw01 101 101
= kismet 101 101
= kNt 101 101
= Kooper 101 101
= KWSN - DSM 101 101
= Ladaman 101 101
= LB 101 101
= Makarias 101 101
= mark f1 101 101
= paranoik0 101 101
= scheivlak 101 101
= shays 101 101
= skylark68 101 101
= Slick 101 101
= Viceroy 101 101
= Wlleiotl 101 101

Overwhelming excitement reigns as merely alphabetical order makes some players look worse than the others. It may take a while until someone scores a non-perfect score, especially if the frontrunners keep scoring like they did in Bahrain.


The entries


The following list shows the maximum, average ("popularity poll") and minimum bets on each driver. In order to make the Popularity Poll 731 points, the value for Hülkenberg was rounded off upwards instead of downwards, as it otherwise would have been.

Name Max Pop Min
Alon 310 240 156
Hami 310 238 190
Vett 283 207 106
Mass 288 204 156
Butt 230 178 119
Schu 289 178 130
Webb 240 161 77
Rosb 172 133 97
Barr 100 56 13
Kubi 93 50 4
Hülk 92 49 10
Koba 108 46 15
dlRo 106 42 0
Suti 77 39 9
Buem 119 28 2
Liuz 100 26 3
Petr 40 15 1
Algu 26 11 0
Trul 21 5 0
Kova 29 4 0
Gloc 23 4 0
DiGr 8 2 0
Senn 7 1 0
DiRe 6 1 0
Ricc 12 1 0
Chan 5 0 0
Fauz 1 0 0
Heid 3 0 0
Lope 2 0 0
Vill 1 0 0

If the WDC battle becomes that close in real life, we're in for a treat.

How many players have guessed each driver for WDC?

Driver Players
Alon 14 +1*0.5
Hami 12 +2*0.5
Vett 2 +1*0.5
Mass 2
Schu 2

August thinks Hamilton and Vettel will score equally, dnbn believes so for Hamilton and Alonso.

Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?

Owner Owned
<- = ->
Kubi 34 0 0 Petr
Vett 33 0 1 Webb
Buem 32 2 0 Algu
Hami 32 0 2 Butt
Schu 28 0 6 Rosb
Alon 27 1 6 Mass
Suti 26 2 6 Liuz
Gloc 25 9 0 DiGr
Barr 23 0 11 Hülk
Koba 21 0 13 dlRo
Trul 17 12 5 Kova
Senn 11 23 0 Chan

Kubica the expected intra-team dominator of the season. 0-0 draws are common in the rookie teams.

If the Popularity Poll somehow would turn out to be 100% correct, the final standings would look like this:

Pos Name Tot
1) mark f1 1847
2) gerry nassar 1815
= Viceroy 1815
4) arcsine 1812
5) paranoik0 1811
6) scheivlak 1806
7) Crazy Canuck 1801
= Grayson 1801
9) Makarias 1800
10) Wlleiotl 1797
11) dnbn 1796
12) Ladaman 1784
13) skylark68 1781
14) Estwald 1779
15) AcuraF1 1777
16) LB 1770
17) fisichella_2001 1769
18) shays 1768
19) Brawn BGP 001 1763
20) jonnyw01 1762
21) kismet 1756
22) D82 1754
= Kooper 1754
24) Slick 1744
25) Apex 1732
26) Costaz 1729
27) Anderis 1724
28) kNt 1720
29) August 1706
30) jeze 1679
31) jokuvaan 1678
32) coyoteBR 1646
33) an1res 1642
34) KWSN - DSM 1535

Most average guess this year is mark f1, while the least average guess comes from KWSN - DSM.


The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Alon 10,4 8,0 0
Mass 8,8 6,2 0
Liuz 7,7 2,0 0
Rosb 7,5 5,8 0
Hami 6,3 4,8 0
Vett 5,8 4,2 0
Schu 4,5 2,8 0
Butt 3,4 2,6 0
Webb 2,5 1,7 0
Barr 1,8 1,0 0

A modest start here, not much to say about it.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2009 this is 29.


Guesses on the latest points scorers:

Alonso Massa Hamilton Vettel Rosberg
* Forecast 475 * Potential 468 * Potential 465 * Potential 462 * Potential 460
* Potential 475 * Forecast 342 Apex 310 August 283 * Forecast 190
jeze 310 KWSN - DSM 288 jeze 295 Costaz 255 Anderis 172
an1res 290 shays 282 Costaz 286 kismet 247 Crazy Canuck 170
Costaz 280 jeze 267 * Forecast 285 Apex 245 Viceroy 169
Brawn BGP 001 278 Slick 260 August 283 an1res 244 KWSN - DSM 165
Makarias 276 coyoteBR 241 Kooper 274 Wlleiotl 240 jokuvaan 161
KWSN - DSM 271 Brawn BGP 001 234 Slick 265 jonnyw01 228 an1res 160
August 270 Makarias 221 Makarias 264 * Forecast 228 Estwald 153
Kooper 264 an1res 220 paranoik0 262 scheivlak 226 LB 150
Ladaman 264 kNt 215 LB 260 dnbn 221 kismet 149
Wlleiotl 260 mark f1 214 Ladaman 256 D82 220 August 143
D82 259 August 211 shays 255 LB 220 scheivlak 141
mark f1 259 Kooper 210 scheivlak 254 Viceroy 219 Apex 140
scheivlak 253 LB 210 kNt 249 paranoik0 217 mark f1 139
LB 250 kismet 201 skylark68 249 arcsine 213 Makarias 138
paranoik0 249 Crazy Canuck 200 D82 240 AcuraF1 212 dnbn 133
arcsine 246 Grayson 199 dnbn 233 Slick 209 paranoik0 132
Crazy Canuck 240 fisichella_2001 198 mark f1 232 Anderis 202 arcsine 130
jonnyw01 239 skylark68 195 Grayson 230 fisichella_2001 202 D82 130
AcuraF1 238 Viceroy 194 Estwald 226 shays 202 Grayson 130
fisichella_2001 236 paranoik0 193 coyoteBR 225 Ladaman 200 gerry nassar 128
dnbn 233 arcsine 191 gerry nassar 225 Makarias 198 shays 125
shays 232 Estwald 190 arcsine 222 Grayson 195 coyoteBR 124
Apex 230 Wlleiotl 190 jokuvaan 221 mark f1 195 fisichella_2001 121
gerry nassar 230 AcuraF1 186 Wlleiotl 220 coyoteBR 190 AcuraF1 120
kismet 227 jonnyw01 183 Brawn BGP 001 219 Crazy Canuck 190 kNt 120
coyoteBR 224 gerry nassar 182 Anderis 216 jokuvaan 190 skylark68 120
kNt 222 Costaz 181 jonnyw01 214 skylark68 190 Wlleiotl 120
skylark68 222 Ladaman 180 Crazy Canuck 210 gerry nassar 187 jonnyw01 114
Viceroy 214 scheivlak 178 fisichella_2001 209 jeze 187 Brawn BGP 001 111
Grayson 197 Anderis 177 Viceroy 202 Kooper 181 Kooper 109
Estwald 195 dnbn 176 AcuraF1 198 Brawn BGP 001 178 Ladaman 109
Slick 184 Apex 160 KWSN - DSM 196 Estwald 175 Costaz 101
Anderis 169 D82 156 kismet 192 kNt 170 Slick 99
jokuvaan 156 jokuvaan 156 an1res 190 KWSN - DSM 106 jeze 97
* Current 25 * Current 18 * Current 15 * Current 12 * Current 10

With two more points scorers and this table looking like a mess even earlier, I decided to split it in two:

Schumacher Button Webber Liuzzi Barrichello
* Potential 458 * Potential 456 * Potential 454 * Potential 452 * Potential 451
coyoteBR 289 shays 230 an1res 240 jokuvaan 100 Crazy Canuck 100
KWSN - DSM 286 Slick 224 kismet 201 fisichella_2001 50 Anderis 86
Estwald 230 Brawn BGP 001 220 dnbn 187 kismet 46 skylark68 80
Kooper 226 jokuvaan 220 kNt 184 arcsine 44 jokuvaan 75
dnbn 205 KWSN - DSM 216 skylark68 184 Grayson 41 paranoik0 73
Ladaman 205 jonnyw01 210 Costaz 183 * Forecast 38 Slick 72
LB 200 Costaz 202 Anderis 182 Slick 37 Kooper 71
scheivlak 196 skylark68 202 LB 180 jeze 36 Ladaman 71
gerry nassar 193 LB 200 arcsine 176 paranoik0 36 Apex 70
paranoik0 192 Makarias 196 mark f1 176 an1res 30 Grayson 70
August 191 mark f1 191 AcuraF1 172 Estwald 30 Wlleiotl 70
D82 187 Apex 190 jonnyw01 172 Viceroy 29 kismet 67
Makarias 182 dnbn 189 August 171 Kooper 27 fisichella_2001 66
Crazy Canuck 180 Anderis 184 Crazy Canuck 170 Ladaman 27 AcuraF1 65
shays 180 kNt 182 Viceroy 167 Brawn BGP 001 25 Brawn BGP 001 63
jonnyw01 170 Crazy Canuck 180 jokuvaan 166 Crazy Canuck 25 gerry nassar 63
Wlleiotl 170 Estwald 180 Makarias 166 gerry nassar 25 Costaz 56
Viceroy 167 AcuraF1 179 Estwald 165 mark f1 25 D82 55
mark f1 162 gerry nassar 179 gerry nassar 165 Wlleiotl 25 Estwald 55
arcsine 160 Viceroy 174 Grayson 165 scheivlak 24 scheivlak 55
Grayson 160 Grayson 170 shays 160 Anderis 22 mark f1 53
Brawn BGP 001 156 scheivlak 169 Brawn BGP 001 156 kNt 22 arcsine 52
Costaz 156 coyoteBR 163 paranoik0 155 skylark68 22 dnbn 52
jeze 154 August 162 Slick 154 AcuraF1 18 jonnyw01 50
* Forecast 152 kismet 160 Apex 150 D82 18 jeze 48
fisichella_2001 151 Wlleiotl 160 Wlleiotl 150 Makarias 18 Viceroy 48
AcuraF1 150 Ladaman 155 D82 147 dnbn 15 kNt 40
jokuvaan 150 arcsine 148 fisichella_2001 142 Costaz 12 Makarias 37
kNt 150 jeze 144 scheivlak 139 shays 12 shays 35
skylark68 150 paranoik0 143 Kooper 131 Apex 11 an1res 30
Slick 146 an1res 140 Ladaman 130 coyoteBR 10 LB 30
kismet 144 D82 139 jeze 123 KWSN - DSM 7 August 25
an1res 140 fisichella_2001 134 KWSN - DSM 98 August 6 * Forecast 19
Anderis 139 Kooper 119 coyoteBR 77 LB 5 coyoteBR 14
Apex 130 * Forecast 114 * Forecast 76 jonnyw01 3 KWSN - DSM 13
* Current 8 * Current 6 * Current 4 * Current 2 * Current 1

We can see that jokuvaan won't like it if the Ferraris keep scoring big...
I'll try to get the columns separated in a neater way for Australia.

The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the Spanish GP.

[mark f1]

That's no surprise....my wife says I'm very average too.......

[KWSN - DSM]

Most average guess this year is mark f1, while the least average guess comes from KWSN - DSM.

Does that make me abnormal???

[AcuraF1]

First Place! Woo Hoo. (it's a good thing Aaron A. Aaronson isn't enetered)

[Makarias]

Does that make me abnormal???

That and other things.