Fifth would feel so unfair after the way Alonso has driven this year. I worked out his points and he has scored 103 in 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1 money. Impressive given the car IMO.
Yes. The scenario is:
2. JB 255 points
3. FA 245 points
4. MW 233 points
5. LH 227 points
So, for LH to leapfrog FA he needs to gain 18 points, so 1st or 2nd. If he is 2nd, FA needs 1 point (10th). If he wins, FA needs 8 points (6th) to clear him.
For MW to move up to third, he needs to gain 13 points on FA. Hence a podium position is necessary for MW to have any chance, while 3rd place would cover Alonso against Webber if Mark wins, while 7th will be sufficient if Mark is 2nd. If Mark is third, the Alonso needs to be 8th.
Regarding Button, Alonso needs to gain 11 points as a points tie will go to Button on countback. A podium is all Button needs, whereas Alonso needs at least fourth to have a mathematical chance of overhauling him. If Button is 4th, 5th or 6th, Alonso needs to win. If JB is 7th, Alonso must be 2nd. If JB is 8th or 9th, FA must be 3rd. Otherwise, 4th will do.