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[Makarias]

The standings after the Spain GP:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) an1res 505 101
= Anderis 505 101
= Apex 505 101
= arcsine 505 101
= coyoteBR 505 101
= Crazy Canuck 505 101
= D82 505 101
= fisichella_2001 505 101
= Grayson 505 101
= jokuvaan 505 101
= Kooper 505 101
= Ladaman 505 101
= mark f1 505 101
= skylark68 505 101
= Slick 505 101
= Viceroy 505 101
17) dnbn 504 100
18) AcuraF1 503 99
= Brawn BGP 001 503 99
= Estwald 503 99
= gerry nassar 503 99
22) Costaz 502 98
= jeze 502 100
= kNt 502 100
= paranoik0 502 98
26) shays 501 97
27) kismet 500 101
28) jonnyw01 496 97
29) scheivlak 493 97
30) KWSN - DSM 492 95
31) Wlleiotl 491 97
32) Makarias 490 97
33) LB 487 91
34) August 458 97

The "flawless" group is reduced by another eight players.

The entries

The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Kubi 88,0 46,8 14
Suti 40,9 20,5 3
Petr 39,8 14,6 3
Butt 39,3 30,3 0
Rosb 37,6 28,9 0
Webb 32,9 22,0 0
Liuz 30,8 7,9 4
Vett 29,0 21,1 0
Alon 27,9 21,5 0
Algu 27,1 11,1 2
Mass 24,0 17,0 0
Hami 20,6 15,8 0
Barr 12,5 6,9 0
Schu 12,4 7,6 0
Hülk 2,1 1,1 0

As before, it's still Kubica causing the most problems. He will be past the 100% expectation mark any time now.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2010 this is 34.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Webber Alonso Vettel Schumacher Button
* Potential 403 * Potential 417 * Potential 410 * Potential 372 * Potential 420
an1res 240 jeze 310 August 283 coyoteBR 289 * Forecast 266
kismet 201 an1res 290 Costaz 255 KWSN - DSM 286 shays 230
* Forecast 201 Costaz 280 kismet 247 Estwald 230 Slick 224
dnbn 187 Brawn BGP 001 278 Apex 245 Kooper 226 Brawn BGP 001 220
kNt 184 Makarias 276 an1res 244 dnbn 205 jokuvaan 220
skylark68 184 KWSN - DSM 271 Wlleiotl 240 Ladaman 205 KWSN - DSM 216
Costaz 183 August 270 jonnyw01 228 LB 200 jonnyw01 210
Anderis 182 Kooper 264 * Forecast 228 scheivlak 196 Costaz 202
LB 180 Ladaman 264 scheivlak 226 gerry nassar 193 skylark68 202
arcsine 176 Wlleiotl 260 dnbn 221 paranoik0 192 LB 200
mark f1 176 D82 259 D82 220 August 191 Makarias 196
AcuraF1 172 mark f1 259 LB 220 D82 187 mark f1 191
jonnyw01 172 * Forecast 255 Viceroy 219 Makarias 182 Apex 190
August 171 scheivlak 253 paranoik0 217 Crazy Canuck 180 dnbn 189
Crazy Canuck 170 LB 250 arcsine 213 shays 180 Anderis 184
Viceroy 167 paranoik0 249 AcuraF1 212 jonnyw01 170 kNt 182
jokuvaan 166 arcsine 246 Slick 209 Wlleiotl 170 Crazy Canuck 180
Makarias 166 Crazy Canuck 240 Anderis 202 Viceroy 167 Estwald 180
Estwald 165 jonnyw01 239 fisichella_2001 202 mark f1 162 AcuraF1 179
gerry nassar 165 AcuraF1 238 shays 202 arcsine 160 gerry nassar 179
Grayson 165 fisichella_2001 236 Ladaman 200 Grayson 160 Viceroy 174
shays 160 dnbn 233 Makarias 198 Brawn BGP 001 156 Grayson 170
Brawn BGP 001 156 shays 232 Grayson 195 Costaz 156 scheivlak 169
paranoik0 155 Apex 230 mark f1 195 jeze 154 coyoteBR 163
Slick 154 gerry nassar 230 coyoteBR 190 fisichella_2001 151 August 162
Apex 150 kismet 227 Crazy Canuck 190 AcuraF1 150 kismet 160
Wlleiotl 150 coyoteBR 224 jokuvaan 190 jokuvaan 150 Wlleiotl 160
D82 147 kNt 222 skylark68 190 kNt 150 Ladaman 155
fisichella_2001 142 skylark68 222 gerry nassar 187 skylark68 150 arcsine 148
scheivlak 139 Viceroy 214 jeze 187 Slick 146 jeze 144
Kooper 131 Grayson 197 Kooper 181 kismet 144 paranoik0 143
Ladaman 130 Estwald 195 Brawn BGP 001 178 an1res 140 an1res 140
jeze 123 Slick 184 Estwald 175 Anderis 139 D82 139
KWSN - DSM 98 Anderis 169 kNt 170 Apex 130 fisichella_2001 134
coyoteBR 77 jokuvaan 156 KWSN - DSM 106 * Forecast 84 Kooper 119
* Current 53 * Current 67 * Current 60 * Current 22 * Current 70

An improved forecast for Schumacher still isn't enough to upset any predictions, but the trend is positive. Webber can beat coyoteBR's prediction in Monaco already...

Guesses on P6-P10:

Massa Sutil Kubica Barrichello Alguersuari
* Potential 399 * Potential 366 * Potential 394 * Potential 357 * Potential 353
KWSN - DSM 288 Grayson 77 * Forecast 167 Crazy Canuck 100 Apex 26
shays 282 * Forecast 61 coyoteBR 93 Anderis 86 fisichella_2001 26
jeze 267 jokuvaan 61 an1res 80 skylark68 80 jokuvaan 20
Slick 260 kismet 60 arcsine 77 jokuvaan 75 mark f1 19
coyoteBR 241 dnbn 56 Anderis 72 paranoik0 73 skylark68 18
Brawn BGP 001 234 fisichella_2001 56 kNt 72 Slick 72 kismet 16
Makarias 221 Kooper 51 skylark68 72 Kooper 71 LB 15
an1res 220 Ladaman 51 Apex 65 Ladaman 71 Wlleiotl 15
kNt 215 Wlleiotl 50 jokuvaan 61 Apex 70 Estwald 14
mark f1 214 scheivlak 49 Crazy Canuck 60 Grayson 70 Makarias 14
August 211 skylark68 49 fisichella_2001 60 Wlleiotl 70 jonnyw01 13
Kooper 210 coyoteBR 45 jeze 55 kismet 67 Anderis 12
LB 210 jonnyw01 45 Kooper 52 fisichella_2001 66 Grayson 12
kismet 201 Viceroy 45 Ladaman 52 AcuraF1 65 shays 12
Crazy Canuck 200 gerry nassar 42 Grayson 51 Brawn BGP 001 63 Viceroy 12
Grayson 199 August 41 KWSN - DSM 47 gerry nassar 63 * Forecast 11
fisichella_2001 198 kNt 41 mark f1 46 Costaz 56 AcuraF1 11
skylark68 195 Anderis 40 Viceroy 46 D82 55 arcsine 11
Viceroy 194 Apex 40 D82 45 Estwald 55 KWSN - DSM 11
paranoik0 193 Estwald 40 kismet 45 scheivlak 55 an1res 10
arcsine 191 mark f1 40 Slick 45 mark f1 53 Brawn BGP 001 10
Estwald 190 Costaz 37 * Current 44 arcsine 52 dnbn 10
Wlleiotl 190 paranoik0 35 Brawn BGP 001 43 dnbn 52 gerry nassar 10
* Forecast 186 Slick 35 dnbn 43 jonnyw01 50 scheivlak 9
AcuraF1 186 arcsine 32 AcuraF1 42 jeze 48 Slick 8
jonnyw01 183 AcuraF1 31 Estwald 42 Viceroy 48 Costaz 7
gerry nassar 182 an1res 30 gerry nassar 42 kNt 40 paranoik0 7
Costaz 181 D82 29 Costaz 41 Makarias 37 August 6
Ladaman 180 Crazy Canuck 25 paranoik0 41 shays 35 D82 6
scheivlak 178 Makarias 25 jonnyw01 40 an1res 30 Crazy Canuck 5
Anderis 177 shays 22 shays 40 LB 30 coyoteBR 4
dnbn 176 jeze 17 LB 35 * Forecast 27 Kooper 4
Apex 160 * Current 16 scheivlak 32 August 25 Ladaman 4
D82 156 Brawn BGP 001 15 Wlleiotl 30 coyoteBR 14 * Current 3
jokuvaan 156 LB 10 Makarias 29 KWSN - DSM 13 jeze 0
* Current 49 KWSN - DSM 9 August 4 * Current 7 kNt 0

...But then again coyoteBR is the least worried about Kubica's success. Sutil too looks likely to make a real difference in this game, whereas points on Barrichello for the most part seem to have been a waste.

The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the Spanish GP.

Name Forecast
an1res 1643,2
kismet 1599,2
Viceroy 1583,6
skylark68 1581,6
mark f1 1578,4
arcsine 1572,6
dnbn 1571,2
LB 1567,8
Crazy Canuck 1561,4
Costaz 1558,8
jonnyw01 1557,6
Anderis 1554,4
Apex 1544,6
shays 1535,8
jokuvaan 1532,8
Makarias 1530,4
Wlleiotl 1529,4
scheivlak 1526,2
Brawn BGP 001 1521,8
AcuraF1 1516,2
kNt 1511,4
gerry nassar 1510,2
Grayson 1509,0
paranoik0 1502,8
fisichella_2001 1502,0
August 1501,4
Estwald 1488,8
Slick 1484,8
Ladaman 1470,8
D82 1451,8
Kooper 1423,0
jeze 1417,2
coyoteBR 1414,8
KWSN - DSM 1387,4

The earliest prediction of the forecast puts an1res firmly as favourite for the title!
As this forecast is a pure extrapolation of the current WDC standings, things can still change dramatically. Will Vettel's misfortunes continue? Will Schumacher be as competitive as in Spain from now on? Will some midfield team get into the groove? Will someone get replaced? All these questions and many more will get their answers as the season moves on. Oh, the excitement!