1 reply to this topic

[Makarias]

The standings after the Monaco GP:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) an1res 606 101
= Anderis 606 101
= Apex 606 101
= arcsine 606 101
= Crazy Canuck 606 101
= fisichella_2001 606 101
= jokuvaan 606 101
= skylark68 606 101
9) coyoteBR 605 100
10) kNt 603 101
11) Kooper 599 94
= Ladaman 599 94
13) Grayson 598 93
14) jeze 596 94
15) mark f1 593 88
= Viceroy 593 88
17) D82 592 87
= Slick 592 87
19) dnbn 590 86
20) AcuraF1 589 86
= Estwald 589 86
= gerry nassar 589 86
23) Costaz 588 86
= paranoik0 588 86
25) kismet 587 87
= shays 587 86
27) Brawn BGP 001 585 82
28) jonnyw01 580 84
29) scheivlak 579 86
30) Wlleiotl 577 86
31) Makarias 576 86
32) KWSN - DSM 575 83
33) LB 567 80
34) August 542 84

All hail Robert Kubica!

The entries

The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Kubi 118,0 62,8 24
Suti 51,1 25,6 4
Webb 48,4 32,4 1
Rosb 42,1 32,4 0
Petr 39,8 14,6 3
Butt 39,3 30,3 0
Liuz 38,5 9,9 4
Vett 37,7 27,5 0
Alon 31,2 24,1 0
Mass 29,9 21,1 0
Algu 27,1 11,1 2
Hami 24,8 19,0 0
Barr 12,5 6,9 0
Schu 12,4 7,6 0
Buem 3,6 0,8 0
Hülk 2,1 1,1 0

Robert Kubica makes it past the 100% Expectation mark! All hail Robert Kubica!

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2010 this is 34.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Webber Vettel Kubica Massa Hamilton
* Potential 403 * Potential 403 * Potential 384 * Potential 386 * Potential 384
* Forecast 247 August 283 * Forecast 187 KWSN - DSM 288 Apex 310
an1res 240 Costaz 255 coyoteBR 93 shays 282 jeze 295
kismet 201 kismet 247 an1res 80 jeze 267 Costaz 286
dnbn 187 * Forecast 247 arcsine 77 Slick 260 August 283
kNt 184 Apex 245 Anderis 72 coyoteBR 241 Kooper 274
skylark68 184 an1res 244 kNt 72 Brawn BGP 001 234 Slick 265
Costaz 183 Wlleiotl 240 skylark68 72 Makarias 221 Makarias 264
Anderis 182 jonnyw01 228 Apex 65 an1res 220 paranoik0 262
LB 180 scheivlak 226 jokuvaan 61 kNt 215 LB 260
arcsine 176 dnbn 221 Crazy Canuck 60 mark f1 214 Ladaman 256
mark f1 176 D82 220 fisichella_2001 60 August 211 shays 255
AcuraF1 172 LB 220 * Current 59 Kooper 210 scheivlak 254
jonnyw01 172 Viceroy 219 jeze 55 LB 210 kNt 249
August 171 paranoik0 217 Kooper 52 kismet 201 skylark68 249
Crazy Canuck 170 arcsine 213 Ladaman 52 Crazy Canuck 200 D82 240
Viceroy 167 AcuraF1 212 Grayson 51 Grayson 199 dnbn 233
jokuvaan 166 Slick 209 KWSN - DSM 47 fisichella_2001 198 mark f1 232
Makarias 166 Anderis 202 mark f1 46 skylark68 195 Grayson 230
Estwald 165 fisichella_2001 202 Viceroy 46 Viceroy 194 Estwald 226
gerry nassar 165 shays 202 D82 45 paranoik0 193 coyoteBR 225
Grayson 165 Ladaman 200 kismet 45 * Forecast 193 gerry nassar 225
shays 160 Makarias 198 Slick 45 arcsine 191 arcsine 222
Brawn BGP 001 156 Grayson 195 Brawn BGP 001 43 Estwald 190 jokuvaan 221
paranoik0 155 mark f1 195 dnbn 43 Wlleiotl 190 Wlleiotl 220
Slick 154 coyoteBR 190 AcuraF1 42 AcuraF1 186 Brawn BGP 001 219
Apex 150 Crazy Canuck 190 Estwald 42 jonnyw01 183 Anderis 216
Wlleiotl 150 jokuvaan 190 gerry nassar 42 gerry nassar 182 jonnyw01 214
D82 147 skylark68 190 Costaz 41 Costaz 181 Crazy Canuck 210
fisichella_2001 142 gerry nassar 187 paranoik0 41 Ladaman 180 fisichella_2001 209
scheivlak 139 jeze 187 jonnyw01 40 scheivlak 178 Viceroy 202
Kooper 131 Kooper 181 shays 40 Anderis 177 AcuraF1 198
Ladaman 130 Brawn BGP 001 178 LB 35 dnbn 176 KWSN - DSM 196
jeze 123 Estwald 175 scheivlak 32 Apex 160 kismet 192
KWSN - DSM 98 kNt 170 Wlleiotl 30 D82 156 an1res 190
* Current 78 KWSN - DSM 106 Makarias 29 jokuvaan 156 * Forecast 187
coyoteBR 77 * Current 78 August 4 * Current 61 * Current 59

Shock and horror for coyoteBR as his points account for Webber is emptied already! Webber seems on course for a 100% surprise, which is no small feat in a frontrunning car. Furthermore: all hail Robert Kubica!

Guesses on P6-P10:

Alonso Rosberg Sutil Liuzzi Buemi
* Potential 400 * Potential 381 * Potential 345 * Potential 335 KWSN - DSM 119
jeze 310 * Forecast 177 Grayson 77 jokuvaan 100 * Potential 326
an1res 290 Anderis 172 * Forecast 63 fisichella_2001 50 coyoteBR 65
Costaz 280 Crazy Canuck 170 jokuvaan 61 kismet 46 Wlleiotl 50
Brawn BGP 001 278 Viceroy 169 kismet 60 arcsine 44 Estwald 38
Makarias 276 KWSN - DSM 165 dnbn 56 Grayson 41 fisichella_2001 38
KWSN - DSM 271 jokuvaan 161 fisichella_2001 56 Slick 37 Kooper 37
August 270 an1res 160 Kooper 51 jeze 36 Ladaman 37
Kooper 264 Estwald 153 Ladaman 51 paranoik0 36 Apex 36
Ladaman 264 LB 150 Wlleiotl 50 * Forecast 32 Anderis 31
Wlleiotl 260 kismet 149 scheivlak 49 an1res 30 Makarias 31
D82 259 August 143 skylark68 49 Estwald 30 jokuvaan 30
mark f1 259 scheivlak 141 coyoteBR 45 Viceroy 29 paranoik0 30
scheivlak 253 Apex 140 jonnyw01 45 Kooper 27 kismet 29
LB 250 mark f1 139 Viceroy 45 Ladaman 27 mark f1 28
paranoik0 249 Makarias 138 gerry nassar 42 Brawn BGP 001 25 Slick 28
arcsine 246 dnbn 133 August 41 Crazy Canuck 25 AcuraF1 27
Crazy Canuck 240 paranoik0 132 kNt 41 gerry nassar 25 scheivlak 26
jonnyw01 239 arcsine 130 Anderis 40 mark f1 25 dnbn 25
* Forecast 238 D82 130 Apex 40 Wlleiotl 25 Viceroy 25
AcuraF1 238 Grayson 130 Estwald 40 scheivlak 24 arcsine 20
fisichella_2001 236 gerry nassar 128 mark f1 40 Anderis 22 Crazy Canuck 20
dnbn 233 shays 125 Costaz 37 kNt 22 skylark68 20
shays 232 coyoteBR 124 paranoik0 35 skylark68 22 LB 18
Apex 230 fisichella_2001 121 Slick 35 AcuraF1 18 shays 18
gerry nassar 230 AcuraF1 120 arcsine 32 D82 18 Brawn BGP 001 17
kismet 227 kNt 120 AcuraF1 31 Makarias 18 gerry nassar 15
coyoteBR 224 skylark68 120 an1res 30 dnbn 15 Grayson 15
kNt 222 Wlleiotl 120 D82 29 Costaz 12 August 14
skylark68 222 jonnyw01 114 Crazy Canuck 25 shays 12 jeze 14
Viceroy 214 Brawn BGP 001 111 Makarias 25 Apex 11 jonnyw01 13
Grayson 197 Kooper 109 shays 22 coyoteBR 10 an1res 10
Estwald 195 Ladaman 109 * Current 20 * Current 10 Costaz 8
Slick 184 Costaz 101 jeze 17 KWSN - DSM 7 D82 7
Anderis 169 Slick 99 Brawn BGP 001 15 August 6 * Forecast 3
jokuvaan 156 jeze 97 LB 10 LB 5 kNt 2
* Current 75 * Current 56 KWSN - DSM 9 jonnyw01 3 * Current 1

Sebastien Buemi finally scores a point. The FI blokes are already beating a few players, which is some well needed entertainment before the frontrunners get into their interesting zone. For example Alonso, an 81 point wait left... Yawn.

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast
an1res 1668,2 25,0
kismet 1609,3 10,1
Viceroy 1569,7 -13,9
skylark68 1567,7 -13,9
dnbn 1555,5 -15,7
mark f1 1551,2 -27,2
Crazy Canuck 1550,7 -10,7
arcsine 1549,7 -22,9
Costaz 1545,5 -13,3
Apex 1544,5 -0,1
LB 1544,2 -23,6
jonnyw01 1539,0 -18,6
Anderis 1533,5 -20,9
shays 1517,3 -18,5
jokuvaan 1516,2 -16,6
Wlleiotl 1511,0 -18,4
Makarias 1503,2 -27,2
Grayson 1502,7 -6,3
kNt 1502,0 -9,4
AcuraF1 1499,0 -17,2
August 1496,7 -4,7
scheivlak 1495,5 -30,7
gerry nassar 1493,5 -16,7
Brawn BGP 001 1492,2 -29,6
fisichella_2001 1489,3 -12,7
paranoik0 1484,2 -18,6
Estwald 1475,5 -13,3
Slick 1475,5 -9,3
Ladaman 1438,5 -32,3
D82 1419,5 -32,3
coyoteBR 1411,0 -3,8
Kooper 1397,7 -25,3
jeze 1389,3 -27,9
KWSN - DSM 1365,0 -22,4

The updated forecast reinforces the earlier trend: an1res is r-u-n-n-o-f-t and kismet looks stronger for second place. The fact that the final points scores will be in the four digit region feels sort of luxurious.

[Viceroy]

Very interesting statistics! This is my favourite game, a pity that I had overlooked it for all those years.