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[Makarias]

The standings after the Turkey GP:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) an1res 707 101
= Anderis 707 101
= arcsine 707 101
= skylark68 707 101
5) Apex 705 99
6) kNt 704 101
7) jokuvaan 701 95
8) Crazy Canuck 700 94
= fisichella_2001 700 94
10) Kooper 692 93
= Ladaman 692 93
12) coyoteBR 691 86
= Grayson 691 93
14) jeze 687 91
15) mark f1 686 93
= Viceroy 686 93
17) D82 685 93
= Slick 685 93
19) dnbn 683 93
20) AcuraF1 682 93
= Estwald 682 93
= gerry nassar 682 93
23) Costaz 681 93
= paranoik0 681 93
25) kismet 680 93
= shays 680 93
27) Brawn BGP 001 676 91
28) jonnyw01 673 93
29) scheivlak 672 93
30) Wlleiotl 670 93
31) Makarias 669 93
32) KWSN - DSM 666 91
33) LB 658 91
34) August 635 93

Another race with mainly usual suspects in the points. Kobayashi's sole point doesn't make any negative anywhere at this point.

The entries

The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Kubi 134,0 71,3 28
Webb 57,7 38,6 1
Suti 56,2 28,2 4
Rosb 49,6 38,2 0
Butt 49,4 38,1 0
Petr 39,8 14,6 3
Liuz 38,5 9,9 4
Vett 37,7 27,5 0
Hami 35,3 27,0 0
Alon 32,9 25,4 0
Mass 32,8 23,2 0
Algu 27,1 11,1 2
Schu 19,1 11,7 0
Barr 12,5 6,9 0
Buem 3,6 0,8 0
Koba 2,2 0,9 0
Hülk 2,1 1,1 0

Kubica, Webber and Sutil were the only points scorers costing anyone points.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2010 this is 34.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Hamilton Button Webber Schumacher Rosberg
* Potential 384 * Potential 388 * Potential 393 * Potential 334 * Potential 366
Apex 310 * Forecast 239 * Forecast 252 coyoteBR 289 * Forecast 179
jeze 295 shays 230 an1res 240 KWSN - DSM 286 Anderis 172
Costaz 286 Slick 224 kismet 201 Estwald 230 Crazy Canuck 170
August 283 Brawn BGP 001 220 dnbn 187 Kooper 226 Viceroy 169
Kooper 274 jokuvaan 220 kNt 184 dnbn 205 KWSN - DSM 165
Slick 265 KWSN - DSM 216 skylark68 184 Ladaman 205 jokuvaan 161
Makarias 264 jonnyw01 210 Costaz 183 LB 200 an1res 160
paranoik0 262 Costaz 202 Anderis 182 scheivlak 196 Estwald 153
LB 260 skylark68 202 LB 180 gerry nassar 193 LB 150
Ladaman 256 LB 200 arcsine 176 paranoik0 192 kismet 149
shays 255 Makarias 196 mark f1 176 August 191 August 143
scheivlak 254 mark f1 191 AcuraF1 172 D82 187 scheivlak 141
kNt 249 Apex 190 jonnyw01 172 Makarias 182 Apex 140
skylark68 249 dnbn 189 August 171 Crazy Canuck 180 mark f1 139
D82 240 Anderis 184 Crazy Canuck 170 shays 180 Makarias 138
dnbn 233 kNt 182 Viceroy 167 jonnyw01 170 dnbn 133
mark f1 232 Crazy Canuck 180 jokuvaan 166 Wlleiotl 170 paranoik0 132
Grayson 230 Estwald 180 Makarias 166 Viceroy 167 arcsine 130
* Forecast 228 AcuraF1 179 Estwald 165 mark f1 162 D82 130
Estwald 226 gerry nassar 179 gerry nassar 165 arcsine 160 Grayson 130
coyoteBR 225 Viceroy 174 Grayson 165 Grayson 160 gerry nassar 128
gerry nassar 225 Grayson 170 shays 160 Brawn BGP 001 156 shays 125
arcsine 222 scheivlak 169 Brawn BGP 001 156 Costaz 156 coyoteBR 124
jokuvaan 221 coyoteBR 163 paranoik0 155 jeze 154 fisichella_2001 121
Wlleiotl 220 August 162 Slick 154 fisichella_2001 151 AcuraF1 120
Brawn BGP 001 219 kismet 160 Apex 150 AcuraF1 150 kNt 120
Anderis 216 Wlleiotl 160 Wlleiotl 150 jokuvaan 150 skylark68 120
jonnyw01 214 Ladaman 155 D82 147 kNt 150 Wlleiotl 120
Crazy Canuck 210 arcsine 148 fisichella_2001 142 skylark68 150 jonnyw01 114
fisichella_2001 209 jeze 144 scheivlak 139 Slick 146 Brawn BGP 001 111
Viceroy 202 paranoik0 143 Kooper 131 kismet 144 Kooper 109
AcuraF1 198 an1res 140 Ladaman 130 an1res 140 Ladaman 109
KWSN - DSM 196 D82 139 jeze 123 Anderis 139 Costaz 101
kismet 192 fisichella_2001 134 KWSN - DSM 98 Apex 130 Slick 99
an1res 190 Kooper 119 * Current 93 * Forecast 92 jeze 97
* Current 84 * Current 88 coyoteBR 77 * Current 34 * Current 66

Button is only a couple of races away from hurting Kooper. Soon Schumacher will be unable to live up to coyoteBR's expectations, who should have placed more points on Webber instead.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Kubica Massa Alonso Sutil Kobayashi
* Potential 367 * Potential 367 * Potential 379 * Potential 322 * Potential 301
* Forecast 182 KWSN - DSM 288 jeze 310 Grayson 77 kNt 108
coyoteBR 93 shays 282 an1res 290 jokuvaan 61 Estwald 72
an1res 80 jeze 267 Costaz 280 * Forecast 60 fisichella_2001 71
arcsine 77 Slick 260 Brawn BGP 001 278 kismet 60 gerry nassar 70
Anderis 72 coyoteBR 241 Makarias 276 dnbn 56 scheivlak 67
kNt 72 Brawn BGP 001 234 KWSN - DSM 271 fisichella_2001 56 Ladaman 62
skylark68 72 Makarias 221 August 270 Kooper 51 Viceroy 61
* Current 67 an1res 220 Kooper 264 Ladaman 51 jokuvaan 60
Apex 65 kNt 215 Ladaman 264 Wlleiotl 50 Grayson 55
jokuvaan 61 mark f1 214 Wlleiotl 260 scheivlak 49 D82 54
Crazy Canuck 60 August 211 D82 259 skylark68 49 Anderis 51
fisichella_2001 60 Kooper 210 mark f1 259 coyoteBR 45 Costaz 51
jeze 55 LB 210 scheivlak 253 jonnyw01 45 jonnyw01 50
Kooper 52 kismet 201 LB 250 Viceroy 45 LB 50
Ladaman 52 Crazy Canuck 200 paranoik0 249 gerry nassar 42 Wlleiotl 50
Grayson 51 Grayson 199 arcsine 246 August 41 arcsine 49
KWSN - DSM 47 fisichella_2001 198 Crazy Canuck 240 kNt 41 Kooper 47
mark f1 46 skylark68 195 jonnyw01 239 Anderis 40 skylark68 44
Viceroy 46 Viceroy 194 AcuraF1 238 Apex 40 mark f1 43
D82 45 paranoik0 193 fisichella_2001 236 Estwald 40 AcuraF1 42
kismet 45 arcsine 191 dnbn 233 mark f1 40 Slick 36
Slick 45 Estwald 190 shays 232 Costaz 37 Brawn BGP 001 35
Brawn BGP 001 43 Wlleiotl 190 Apex 230 paranoik0 35 paranoik0 35
dnbn 43 AcuraF1 186 gerry nassar 230 Slick 35 jeze 34
AcuraF1 42 jonnyw01 183 kismet 227 arcsine 32 KWSN - DSM 33
Estwald 42 * Forecast 182 coyoteBR 224 AcuraF1 31 August 32
gerry nassar 42 gerry nassar 182 kNt 222 an1res 30 Makarias 32
Costaz 41 Costaz 181 skylark68 222 D82 29 kismet 30
paranoik0 41 Ladaman 180 * Forecast 214 Crazy Canuck 25 shays 30
jonnyw01 40 scheivlak 178 Viceroy 214 Makarias 25 coyoteBR 27
shays 40 Anderis 177 Grayson 197 shays 22 Apex 22
LB 35 dnbn 176 Estwald 195 * Current 22 dnbn 21
scheivlak 32 Apex 160 Slick 184 jeze 17 Crazy Canuck 20
Wlleiotl 30 D82 156 Anderis 169 Brawn BGP 001 15 an1res 15
Makarias 29 jokuvaan 156 jokuvaan 156 LB 10 * Forecast 3
August 4 * Current 67 * Current 79 KWSN - DSM 9 * Current 1

A single first point for Kobayashi; expectations on the Sauber team sadly seem to go unfulfilled this year...

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast
an1res 1619,0 -49,2
skylark68 1607,1 39,5
dnbn 1588,7 33,2
Viceroy 1581,6 11,9
Anderis 1579,9 46,4
mark f1 1577,9 26,7
kismet 1570,4 -38,9
arcsine 1564,0 14,3
jokuvaan 1561,7 45,5
Crazy Canuck 1560,7 10,0
LB 1559,9 15,7
shays 1557,9 40,5
Apex 1554,0 9,5
Costaz 1549,6 4,1
kNt 1546,0 44,0
jonnyw01 1545,6 6,6
Grayson 1544,3 41,6
gerry nassar 1533,1 39,6
Makarias 1529,9 26,7
Slick 1524,4 48,9
Estwald 1523,6 48,1
scheivlak 1519,7 24,2
Brawn BGP 001 1507,1 15,0
Wlleiotl 1504,6 -6,4
AcuraF1 1502,6 3,6
paranoik0 1502,6 18,4
fisichella_2001 1491,3 2,0
August 1489,4 -7,2
Ladaman 1477,9 39,4
coyoteBR 1452,7 41,7
D82 1450,6 31,1
Kooper 1425,7 28,0
jeze 1410,1 20,8
KWSN - DSM 1362,9 -2,1

A hurtful race for an1res, as Vettel's forecast dropped by 35 points and Alonso's by 23 points. Upwards trend for most other players, though. Nice.