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[Makarias]

The standings after the Canada GP:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) an1res 808 101
= arcsine 808 101
3) Anderis 807 100
= skylark68 807 100
5) kNt 801 97
6) Apex 799 94
7) jokuvaan 796 95
8) Crazy Canuck 795 95
= fisichella_2001 795 95
10) Kooper 787 95
= Ladaman 787 95
12) Grayson 786 95
13) jeze 781 94
= mark f1 781 95
= Viceroy 781 95
16) coyoteBR 780 89
= D82 780 95
= Slick 780 95
19) dnbn 778 95
20) AcuraF1 777 95
= Estwald 777 95
= gerry nassar 777 95
23) Costaz 776 95
= paranoik0 776 95
25) kismet 775 95
26) shays 774 94
27) Brawn BGP 001 770 94
28) scheivlak 767 95
29) jonnyw01 766 93
30) Wlleiotl 765 95
31) Makarias 764 95
32) KWSN - DSM 753 87
33) LB 750 92
34) August 728 93

Just two perfect scores remain now. The much anticipated frontrunner induced mayhem should have started by the next update around Hungary.

The entries

The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Kubi 146,0 77,7 31
Webb 63,9 42,7 2
Butt 59,5 45,9 0
Suti 58,8 29,5 5
Rosb 55,6 42,8 0
Liuz 46,2 11,9 6
Hami 45,9 35,0 0
Vett 43,5 31,7 0
Petr 39,8 14,6 3
Alon 39,1 30,2 0
Mass 32,8 23,2 0
Algu 27,1 11,1 2
Schu 19,1 11,7 0
Buem 18,1 4,2 1
Barr 12,5 6,9 0
Koba 2,2 0,9 0
Hülk 2,1 1,1 0

Buemi beat kNt's low expectations and became the seventh driver to cost someone points this season.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2010 this is 34.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Hamilton Button Alonso Vettel Webber
* Potential 384 * Potential 381 * Potential 369 * Potential 365 * Potential 378
Apex 310 * Forecast 252 jeze 310 August 283 * Forecast 245
jeze 295 shays 230 an1res 290 Costaz 255 an1res 240
Costaz 286 Slick 224 Costaz 280 kismet 247 kismet 201
August 283 Brawn BGP 001 220 Brawn BGP 001 278 Apex 245 dnbn 187
Kooper 274 jokuvaan 220 Makarias 276 an1res 244 kNt 184
Slick 265 KWSN - DSM 216 KWSN - DSM 271 Wlleiotl 240 skylark68 184
Makarias 264 jonnyw01 210 August 270 jonnyw01 228 Costaz 183
paranoik0 262 Costaz 202 Kooper 264 scheivlak 226 Anderis 182
LB 260 skylark68 202 Ladaman 264 dnbn 221 LB 180
* Forecast 259 LB 200 Wlleiotl 260 D82 220 arcsine 176
Ladaman 256 Makarias 196 D82 259 LB 220 mark f1 176
shays 255 mark f1 191 mark f1 259 Viceroy 219 AcuraF1 172
scheivlak 254 Apex 190 scheivlak 253 paranoik0 217 jonnyw01 172
kNt 249 dnbn 189 LB 250 * Forecast 214 August 171
skylark68 249 Anderis 184 paranoik0 249 arcsine 213 Crazy Canuck 170
D82 240 kNt 182 arcsine 246 AcuraF1 212 Viceroy 167
dnbn 233 Crazy Canuck 180 Crazy Canuck 240 Slick 209 jokuvaan 166
mark f1 232 Estwald 180 jonnyw01 239 Anderis 202 Makarias 166
Grayson 230 AcuraF1 179 AcuraF1 238 fisichella_2001 202 Estwald 165
Estwald 226 gerry nassar 179 fisichella_2001 236 shays 202 gerry nassar 165
coyoteBR 225 Viceroy 174 dnbn 233 Ladaman 200 Grayson 165
gerry nassar 225 Grayson 170 shays 232 Makarias 198 shays 160
arcsine 222 scheivlak 169 Apex 230 Grayson 195 Brawn BGP 001 156
jokuvaan 221 coyoteBR 163 gerry nassar 230 mark f1 195 paranoik0 155
Wlleiotl 220 August 162 kismet 227 coyoteBR 190 Slick 154
Brawn BGP 001 219 kismet 160 coyoteBR 224 Crazy Canuck 190 Apex 150
Anderis 216 Wlleiotl 160 * Forecast 223 jokuvaan 190 Wlleiotl 150
jonnyw01 214 Ladaman 155 kNt 222 skylark68 190 D82 147
Crazy Canuck 210 arcsine 148 skylark68 222 gerry nassar 187 fisichella_2001 142
fisichella_2001 209 jeze 144 Viceroy 214 jeze 187 scheivlak 139
Viceroy 202 paranoik0 143 Grayson 197 Kooper 181 Kooper 131
AcuraF1 198 an1res 140 Estwald 195 Brawn BGP 001 178 Ladaman 130
KWSN - DSM 196 D82 139 Slick 184 Estwald 175 jeze 123
kismet 192 fisichella_2001 134 Anderis 169 kNt 170 * Current 103
an1res 190 Kooper 119 jokuvaan 156 KWSN - DSM 106 KWSN - DSM 98
* Current 109 * Current 106 * Current 94 * Current 90 coyoteBR 77

Button is now only a podium finish away from hurting Kooper.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Rosberg Kubica Buemi Liuzzi Sutil
* Potential 349 * Potential 348 * Potential 280 * Potential 287 * Potential 298
* Forecast 176 * Forecast 173 KWSN - DSM 119 jokuvaan 100 Grayson 77
Anderis 172 coyoteBR 93 coyoteBR 65 fisichella_2001 50 jokuvaan 61
Crazy Canuck 170 an1res 80 Wlleiotl 50 kismet 46 kismet 60
Viceroy 169 arcsine 77 Estwald 38 arcsine 44 dnbn 56
KWSN - DSM 165 * Current 73 fisichella_2001 38 Grayson 41 fisichella_2001 56
jokuvaan 161 Anderis 72 Kooper 37 Slick 37 * Forecast 55
an1res 160 kNt 72 Ladaman 37 jeze 36 Kooper 51
Estwald 153 skylark68 72 Apex 36 paranoik0 36 Ladaman 51
LB 150 Apex 65 Anderis 31 an1res 30 Wlleiotl 50
kismet 149 jokuvaan 61 Makarias 31 Estwald 30 scheivlak 49
August 143 Crazy Canuck 60 jokuvaan 30 * Forecast 29 skylark68 49
scheivlak 141 fisichella_2001 60 paranoik0 30 Viceroy 29 coyoteBR 45
Apex 140 jeze 55 kismet 29 Kooper 27 jonnyw01 45
mark f1 139 Kooper 52 mark f1 28 Ladaman 27 Viceroy 45
Makarias 138 Ladaman 52 Slick 28 Brawn BGP 001 25 gerry nassar 42
dnbn 133 Grayson 51 AcuraF1 27 Crazy Canuck 25 August 41
paranoik0 132 KWSN - DSM 47 scheivlak 26 gerry nassar 25 kNt 41
arcsine 130 mark f1 46 dnbn 25 mark f1 25 Anderis 40
D82 130 Viceroy 46 Viceroy 25 Wlleiotl 25 Apex 40
Grayson 130 D82 45 arcsine 20 scheivlak 24 Estwald 40
gerry nassar 128 kismet 45 Crazy Canuck 20 Anderis 22 mark f1 40
shays 125 Slick 45 skylark68 20 kNt 22 Costaz 37
coyoteBR 124 Brawn BGP 001 43 LB 18 skylark68 22 paranoik0 35
fisichella_2001 121 dnbn 43 shays 18 AcuraF1 18 Slick 35
AcuraF1 120 AcuraF1 42 Brawn BGP 001 17 D82 18 arcsine 32
kNt 120 Estwald 42 gerry nassar 15 Makarias 18 AcuraF1 31
skylark68 120 gerry nassar 42 Grayson 15 dnbn 15 an1res 30
Wlleiotl 120 Costaz 41 August 14 Costaz 12 D82 29
jonnyw01 114 paranoik0 41 jeze 14 shays 12 Crazy Canuck 25
Brawn BGP 001 111 jonnyw01 40 jonnyw01 13 * Current 12 Makarias 25
Kooper 109 shays 40 * Forecast 12 Apex 11 * Current 23
Ladaman 109 LB 35 an1res 10 coyoteBR 10 shays 22
Costaz 101 scheivlak 32 Costaz 8 KWSN - DSM 7 jeze 17
Slick 99 Wlleiotl 30 D82 7 August 6 Brawn BGP 001 15
jeze 97 Makarias 29 * Current 5 LB 5 LB 10
* Current 74 August 4 kNt 2 jonnyw01 3 KWSN - DSM 9

Buemi and Liuzzi were the less expected points scorers in Canada. A little variation like that is always welcome, and we salute Massa and Schumacher for failing to score points. It's amazing how Force India have moved up over the last couple of years when Sutil only scoring a single point feels like a disappointment for him.

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast
skylark68 1604,5 -2,6
an1res 1598,1 -20,9
Apex 1586,4 32,4
dnbn 1579,9 -8,8
LB 1570,4 10,5
shays 1563,8 5,9
mark f1 1561,5 -16,4
Costaz 1560,1 10,6
Viceroy 1553,8 -27,8
Anderis 1553,5 -26,4
jokuvaan 1549,5 -12,2
kismet 1548,4 -22,1
arcsine 1544,3 -19,8
Crazy Canuck 1541,4 -19,3
Makarias 1540,4 10,5
kNt 1537,3 -8,8
scheivlak 1531,3 11,5
Slick 1527,6 3,2
jonnyw01 1527,3 -18,3
paranoik0 1517,5 14,9
Grayson 1513,4 -30,9
gerry nassar 1510,8 -22,4
August 1503,0 13,6
Estwald 1495,8 -27,8
Ladaman 1488,4 10,5
Wlleiotl 1486,3 -18,3
Brawn BGP 001 1484,8 -22,4
AcuraF1 1482,5 -20,1
fisichella_2001 1468,9 -22,4
D82 1463,1 12,6
Kooper 1437,3 11,5
coyoteBR 1435,8 -17,0
jeze 1421,0 10,9
KWSN - DSM 1344,9 -18,0

So much for huge leads in the forecast... Skylark68 was over 100 points behind an1res in the post-Monaco forecast. Take these early predictions with a few pinches of salt! Mixed tendencies this round: Hamilton's improved forecast helps some, but Schumacher's and Massa's failures hurts everyone.

[kNt]

Damn I should have had more confidence in my compatriot Buemi.