25 replies to this topic

[WhiteBlue]

I usually begin my review with a look at the WDC table which changed little from the Canadian race.



Essentially the Red Bull drivers have changed position for P3 in the WDC table.



This gives an impression of the raw data that go into the analysis. I basically gather odds from a UK, German and Spanish site and average them out.



And this is how they are rated by the punters and bookies: Alonso's odds are better than his result and he goes from P5 to P3. He basically switches places with Webber. Webber looses heavily with his shunt in Valencia. Vettel can narrow the gap to Hamilton.



The WCC table is represented slightly different from drivers because we have less teams than drivers. The last result appears on the bottom of each column. The table sees very little change. McLaren and Red Bull increase their lead on Ferrari and Mercedes. Renault, Force India, Williams and Sauber make good progress with the European race. Sauber hauls a very nice load for the Kobayashi drive.



This graph is a bit special. I have not simply used the team odds. I want to create a yardstick to show how the different cars are rated by the punters versus the respective WCC leader. So the team odds are divided by the odds of the leading team. In the relative car odds McLaren still lead the way followed by Red Bull and Ferrari on a distant third place with 5,56. Mercedes is now out of the picture because their odds simply are too bad.



The last graph is showing the personal WDC odds of a driver weighted by the car odds. This race there is little change. Vettel closes down on Hamilton but Alonso still punches above his weight. He may look good because his team mate it not pulling his weight as the Red Bull and McLaren drivers do.

Edited by WhiteBlue, 02 July 2010 - 07:49.

[TIFOlonSO]

Great graphics!

Much better now with full pics.

Edited by TIFOlonSO, 02 July 2010 - 07:42.

[WhiteBlue]

Great graphics!

Much better now with full pics.

Yeah, I'm still struggling with the BB codes of this site compared to F1technical where I used to present this. Graphics are all Excel 2007 with the Mac version. I store the data files in Office 2004 though to keep it compatible with the main stream. If someone wants sources please PM me.

[WhiteBlue]

The traditional review to the odds after the Brit GP is a bit late. So aplologies for that.



In the top group of the WDC table Webber and Vettel have now changed positions. In the tier two group Kubica and Rosberg have swapt positions and in the lower ranks Kobayashi has overtaken Liuzzi. Fundamentally nothing has changed except that Alonso now looks firmly to belong to tier two.



In the data table SKYbet UK have dropped Massa and Kubica from the list so that those values do not go any more in their world score. Bwin have dropped Schumacher so that his only odds now come from Ibetips.



The world odds change significantly with Webber now going to P3 from P5 and Alonso going back to P5 with very heavily stacked odds of 13.3 against him. Button looses moderately but does not change position. Vettel is almost unaffected getting only a 0.2 penalty on his odds. It looks like the punters and bookies are recognizing his pole and his strong recovery drive. Webber improves significantly from 8.5 to 5.8 but is still a long way from Vettel at 3.3. His previous mistakes don't seem forgotten.

The graph is also giving us some clues how the changes in personal performance level of the drivers impact on the odds. If you see Webber versus Vettel you see that the betting money massively changed their view after Mark managed two victories in Spain and Monaco. When he screwed up again in Valencia his odds went up significantly and his season graph looks indeed erratic like his performance over the season. Vettel's odds hardly change as he is putting in strings of pole positions when his car is undamaged and when he makes mistakes like the bad start in Silverstone he also makes big efforts like his recovery drive.

The other helpful aspect of the odds is that they put Button's points standing in proper perspective. Although Button is P2 on points he is only on P4 in the odds. I believe that this is his true chance to become WDC again.



In the WCC points table the McLaren dominance continues. They look like having a good advantage from the first half of the season. Red Bull again missed precious points by Vettel's botched start and puncture. Further down the order Mercedes have stabilized their position against Renault by Rosberg's podium. And sensationally Sauber overtake Toro Rosso for P7 in the constructors table.



The car odds of the teams that are ranked for the WCC look even more like a two horse race now. Ferrari is practically out of the game. Relative to the contenders their odds are now 11.5 at which point I usually took the team out of the graph. I'll wait a bit if they recover some ground because they suffered a lot of relatively heavy penalties in the last two races.



In the driver odds corrected by relative car odds Alonso is not in the game any more because his team has exceeded a 10.0 score. It starts to be too distortive at this point. I might just have left out that graph now as both remaining teams are almost equal on odds. So this graph currently mirrors the absolute driver odds.

[Gareth]

Thanks WhiteBlue - appreciate you presenting the info here.

[WhiteBlue]

Here we go with the customary review of the championship tables and the betting odds for the Hungarian GP.



The drivers table changes quite significantly. Webber goes to the top and Hamilton drops to second. Vettel takes P3 as Button drops to P4. Alonso closes the gap to the leaders nicely. It is still a clear five way fight and the competitors are closer than before. So an exciting prospect for the fans and viewers.



The national odds table show Rosberg dropping out of the odds in the UK. He is pretty much out of contention by his own admission.



In the WDC odds Vettel defends his P1. One has to assume he did it by his qualifying pace. The punters seem to hope that he will get back to mistake and trouble free races again, and so do I. Webber capitalizes from Vettel's mistakes and takes P2 in the odds for the very first time. His experience and race craft is more and more appreciated by the betting money after some good race results.

The lack of pace of the McLaren makes a dent into the hopes of Hamilton and Button. They both get their odds almost doubled. Hamilton suffers less although he gets no race result in Hungary but his qualifying speed is consistently higher than Buttons. For the betters Button is practically out of the race unless something surprising happens.

Alonso is rated very strong on P3 of the odds ahead of Hamilton which is more owed to good driving and getting #1 status from Ferrari I feel than the outright speed of the car. In Spa I expect the McLarens much stronger than in Hungary and they could beat the Ferraris there. So Alonso makes hay while the sun shines for him.



The constructor table shows Red Bull taking the lead from McLaren. They clearly have the downforce by any technology and standard you look at. Qualifying and race pace in hungary is 0.9-1.2 s ahead. So no big surprise there. Hamilton's mechanical failure drops McLaren and helps Red Bull to take the lead. The rest of the table shows little change. Renault close the gap to Mercedes and Williams gain on Force India.



The standardized WCC odds show a big punishment for McLaren. Their odds more than double which is more than their drivers get. It reflects that the car is off the pace in qualifying and the race on high downforce circuits. At least McLaren hold their P2 position. Ferrari also fall back but not quite so bad as McLaren which may be due to their better front wing and blown diffusor implementation.



In the standardized driver odds Alonso shines mightily because he makes the most out a lowly rated car. Hamilton also looks good for qualifying better than his car.

[chrisj]

I'm not great with numbers and things. Are you saying I should bet on Webber?

[Gareth]

Thanks again WhiteBlue.

In the standardized driver odds Alonso shines mightily because he makes the most out a lowly rated car. Hamilton also looks good for qualifying better than his car.

Wouldn't this graph also reflect the standard of the team mate as they (as well as the car) go towards the WCC position? Looking at the WDC odds, I suspect Alonso is benefiting a lot from the punter's perception of Massa's points scoring ability and Hamilton a little with Button; with Vettel and Webber 'suffering' from the fact they are both seen as good bets for the WDC?

[velgajski1]

In the standardized driver odds Alonso shines mightily because he makes the most out a lowly rated car. Hamilton also looks good for qualifying better than his car.

Not really sure you can base car rating on WCC points.

Judging this season RBR is the best car with Ferrari and McLaren sharing second spot. It's just what Ferrari engineers have predicted at the start of the season, and globally - its showing.

Alonso had more mistakes than any of McLaren drivers, Massa even more so. You can see that when they're having trouble/error free weekends like Bahrain, Hockenheim or Hungary.

[WhiteBlue]

Wouldn't this graph also reflect the standard of the team mate as they (as well as the car) go towards the WCC position? Looking at the WDC odds, I suspect Alonso is benefiting a lot from the punter's perception of Massa's points scoring ability and Hamilton a little with Button; with Vettel and Webber 'suffering' from the fact they are both seen as good bets for the WDC?

I think that both championship odds WDC and WCC are pretty much reacting like a perfect market economy. If no more technical news or important information comes out I believe that the odds correctly predict that Vettel would win the drivers championship. The drivers odds and the team odds influence each other. Ferrari practically declaring a #1 in Germany influenced the team odds, Massa's odds and Alonso's odds.

The lack of quali and race pace of the McLarens had a big impact on the McLaren, Button and Hamilton odds. But it impacted on Hamilton the least because he is very good at qualifying and in the race.

The last graph tries to show how all drivers could be doing in equal cars. It is surely not perfect. But is should be a reminder that the cars are not equal and that the drivers can make a difference. I don't like Alonso very much, but I have to admit that he occasionally dragged that Ferrari to places where it did not really belong.

[velgajski1]

I think that both championship odds WDC and WCC are pretty much reacting like a perfect market economy. If no more technical news or important information comes out I believe that the odds correctly predict that Vettel would win the drivers championship. The drivers odds and the team odds influence each other. Ferrari practically declaring a #1 in Germany influenced the team odds, Massa's odds and Alonso's odds.

The lack of quali and race pace of the McLarens had a big impact on the McLaren, Button and Hamilton odds. But it impacted on Hamilton the least because he is very good at qualifying and in the race.

The last graph tries to show how all drivers could be doing in equal cars. It is surely not perfect. But is should be a reminder that the cars are not equal and that the drivers can make a difference. I don't like Alonso very much, but I have to admit that he occasionally dragged that Ferrari to places where it did not really belong.

This is the thing that I disagree with, I think this graph is pretty useless (no offence, its well done and plotted).

If you for example did that kind of graph in 2008. it would seem that Hamilton is driving like a god while in fact it was a season where he had quite a lot of mistakes. On the other hand, he is (IMO) class of the field this season, yet by this graph he is behind Alonso who simply did (too) many mistakes this season.

Like I said, you cannot judge the car by WCC points because quality of drivers influences WCC points. This graph only points at big disparities between teammates, nothing more.

Edited by velgajski1, 03 August 2010 - 13:34.

[WhiteBlue]

An here we go with the customary review of tables and odds.



At the top Hamilton catches Webber again while Vettel, Button and Alonso write a zero round. That really has a big impact on the Hamilton/Webber lead. The accident Vettel/Button could become a crucial event for the WDC. Kubica passes Rosberg in the WDC and Sutil passes Schumacher. The difference for Force India is that their F-duct seems to work out of the box and Mercedes is still crap.



Massa is not shown in the German and Austrian bets any more. The world odds pie shows a clear race of Webber vs. Hamilton. Alonso is almost out of the race with the betters.



Vettel goes from front runner to outsider in the space of one race. He did not qualify fastest as he did in many races before and he lost crucial points in an abysmal race. I think that the pendulum has gone a bit too low for him but he certainly gave his WDC chances a huge blow with that bus stop accident in Spa. It also took out Button and the punters are not seeing the sitting champion in the race for 2010 any more.



McLaren have massively caught up with Red Bull in the WCC table which is mainly caused by their mastery of the blown diffusor. They were heard to use ******** ignition mapping not only in qualifying but also in the race. They may have to carry more fuel but it seems beneficial to their pace. The front wing/floor clamp down also seems to have an effect together with a track that suits the power of the Merc engine.



In the relative performance of the cars the smart money sees Ferrari fall off the cliff again. Their odds exceed the two leading cars by a factor of ten. This usually means the car is out of the race.



In the corrected driver odds Alonso is taken out because the Ferrari odds would be too distortive. Hamilton really shines as most betters have confidence that he will clearly outperform his team mate. Webber also gets a lot more support after Vettel made significant mistakes in two consecutive races and he did not.

[WhiteBlue]

Odds and tables update after Monza with five races remaining.



Webber takes P1 from Hamilton and Alonso goes to P3. Rosberg overtakes Kubica again as Schumacher swaps with Sutil. Hülkenberg makes good progress and takes Liuzzi.



Nothing unusual in the national odds.



The relative positions in the odds remain unchanged but Alonso makes a big jump back into contention. With 4.9 he almost catches Vettel on 4.8. Button is improved but looks basically out of the running. His odds have always been worse than his table position.



Not much change in the constructor table.



In the car odds Ferrari have come closer but they are still no thread to Read Bull and McLaren in the rating of the punters.



In the car corrected driver odds Vettel falls back behind Webber which is expected after Webber leads the table.

[turbotomus]

Nice fights going on between massa rosberg and kubica, and between petrov and Schumacher. Who would have thought the latter one would happen during the winter

[WhiteBlue]

I'm coming to my customary review of the tables and odds after the Singapore GP. BWIN did not have odds for a couple of days and that delayed my analysis.



At the top of the points table we see much change as Hamilton writes a second DNF in a row and Alonso wins twice. Alonso now takes P2 and Hamilton P3. Vettel progresses to P4. Sutil catches Schumacher again. Barichello looks like he could also catch Schumacher by Abu Dhabi or before.



No unusual changes in the odds data table to comment.



The WDC odds see some significant change with Hamilton falling from P2 to P4 and Alonso going from P4 to P2. They effectively swap position. According to the betting money we now have a three horse race with Button pretty much out of the picture and Hamilton relatively far behind in a slow McLaren. Vettel is hanging on to the third position due to his proven speed in the superior Red Bull. Webber has a firm grip on P1 by his consistency to make high points finishes. He is not punished for being slow in the Red Bull because he makes few mistakes and has luck on his side (for now).



There is little change in the Constructors table except for McLaren loosing ground on Red Bull and Williams catching up on Force India.



In the relative strength of the constructors Ferrari take another hit although they are now much closer to the pace. Massa has not been pulling his weight and the Ferrari's chances of a WCC are rapidly braking down.



In the drivers odds corrected by car odds Alonso isn't shown due to Ferrari not being in contention for the WCC any more. Their relative odds versus the leader Red Bull are more than ten now. Hamilton is leading in this view now due to his points standing combined with the relative low strenght of the McLaren WCC odds.

[aditya-now]

I'm coming to my customary review of the tables and odds after the Singapore GP. BWIN did not have odds for a couple of days and that delayed my analysis.

Another brilliant analysis with astounding visuals - thanks, WhiteBlue, it give food for thought, even if one is not in the betting business!

[WhiteBlue]

The main reason for doing this exercise is getting a feel for the chances of my man Vettel. When I look at the appreciation of the betting money my fan view is often corrected. It helps to get a more realistic outlook on the chances. People who put their money where their mouth is make more considered decisions than those who just follow their heart. I hope it helps other people as well to a more realistic view of their favorite driver.

[Henrytheeigth]

Thanks I love em! Especially when Ferrari and Mark do well

[aditya-now]

The main reason for doing this exercise is getting a feel for the chances of my man Vettel. When I look at the appreciation of the betting money my fan view is often corrected. It helps to get a more realistic outlook on the chances. People who put their money where their mouth is make more considered decisions than those who just follow their heart. I hope it helps other people as well to a more realistic view of their favorite driver.

Indeed, it makes sense to look at those who invest money into their decisions - so your analysis´ are very helpful to objectify our "heart-based" fan views. Thanks again and please keep on! Also, your man Vettel is not doing bad at all, there is still everything to go for!

[WhiteBlue]

Here we go with the odds and tables review after the Japanese GP



Sebastian Vettel has pulled equal on points with Alonso. Schumacher got more points than usual while Sutil and his suitor Barrichello failed to score significantly. Heidfeld chalkes up a score and may outrun De la Rosa at the next race.



Not much changes in the data tables



Button and Hamilton are practically out of the race if we believe the smart money. Vettel takes P2 from Alonso by merit of the fastest package around Suzuka. The betters obviously perceive Red Bull/Vettel faster over the last three races than Ferrari/Alonso. Webber profits from his luck and from making very few mistakes. Although he is consistently the slower of the Red Bull drivers his points tally keeps him the favorite with the betting comunity.



Not much changes in the constructor points table in terms of relative standing. Red Bull gets maximum points from Japan and increase their lead on McLaren and Ferrari. It is probably over for Renault to catch Mercedes after a double DNF of their cars. Williams and FI are very close and my guess is that P6 will go to Williams.



In the relative car odds Ferrari score over fifty and fall off the table. McLaren are also pretty dismal and retain very small chances in the view of the punters to grab the constructor's championship. Bar a major catastrophe like dual DNFs Red Bull have pretty much sealed that constructors title by now.

There is only one team left with relative car odds smaller than ten. So it makes no sense any more to show a driver comparison weighted by car odds.

Edited by WhiteBlue, 11 October 2010 - 09:56.

[gaston_foix]

The smart one would have put the money on Webber in March...

[sosidge]

The smart one would have put the money on Webber in March...

I would wait until the end of the season before deciding where the smart money went...

[WhiteBlue]

At least the odds show a much more realistic view than the wisdom of the fans. Whenever I see polls in forums and on web sites they come out very different than the odds and those are usually closer to reality. The outcome of the Japanese race was fairly well predicted.

[WhiteBlue]

This is the regular look at the championship tables and the betting odds after the Korean GP.



Significantly Alonso has gone to P1 and Webber to P2. Vettel is back to P4 with only 50 points up for grabs. Kubica has pulled away from Rosberg and Schumacher from Sutil and Barrichello. Heidfeld has caught up with De la Rosa on points in just three races.



The data table shows that the Spanish site iBetips has stopped bets on WDC. So odds are now only composed from British Skybet and German Bwin.



The odds are now heavily influenced by the rapidly reducing residual points from the two races left on the calendar. Alonso is taking a huge jump to favorite with Webber and Vettel not scoring in Korea. He only needs podium finishes in both final races to win the title. Vettel falls all the way back to P4. The odds pretty much reflect the points position and do not so much look at the assumed qualifying form any more. So Hamilton is actually getting better odds than Vettel although Vettel is leading the odds to win the next race. A few more WDC points have a very heavy impact now.



In the WCC table nothing much has changed. Ferrari and McLaren have caught up some with Red Bull. Mercedes is doing a good job to stay in front of Renault and there could be still a foto finish between Force India and Williams.



In the standardized team odds Ferrari have come a bit closer but they are still way beyond ten. McLaren also caught up with Red Bull but they are still not in striking distance. The betting money sees Red Bull as WCC and Alonso as WDC.

[aditya-now]

This is the regular look at the championship tables and the betting odds after the Korean GP.

Thanks as always for this brilliant thread and illumining update.

The first graph (the simple points standings) makes it quite clear that Fernando Alonso, at the time of the British GP, was the farthest behind all the other four WDC competitors - and yet, this is when he has made his bold prediction that he would win the title.

Now, 7 races later, he is leading and he is leading the odds as well. It is quite logical that those who bet their money on outcomes are much more realistic than us fans with our likes and dislikes.

[WhiteBlue]

The last review for the season



The driver table sees Vettel and Hamilton swapping places and Hülkenberg passing Petrov and Liuzzi.



The WDC odds table shows once again data for Ibetips.



The world odds for WDC see Hamilton dropping out with odds higher than 70.



Red Bull seal the constructors championship. And Williams overtake Force India in the constructors by one point.