3 replies to this topic

[Makarias]

The standings after the Europe GP:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) an1res 905 97
2) arcsine 903 95
3) Anderis 898 91
= skylark68 898 91
5) Apex 890 91
= kNt 890 89
7) jokuvaan 887 91
8) fisichella_2001 886 91
9) Crazy Canuck 880 85
10) Ladaman 878 91
11) Grayson 877 91
12) coyoteBR 876 96
= Kooper 876 89
14) mark f1 872 91
= Viceroy 872 91
16) Slick 871 91
17) D82 869 89
= dnbn 869 91
19) AcuraF1 868 91
= Estwald 868 91
= gerry nassar 868 91
22) Costaz 867 91
= paranoik0 867 91
24) kismet 866 91
25) jeze 864 83
26) scheivlak 858 91
27) jonnyw01 857 91
= shays 857 83
29) Wlleiotl 856 91
30) Brawn BGP 001 853 83
31) Makarias 849 85
32) LB 833 83
33) KWSN - DSM 821 68
34) August 819 91

The last two bastions of perfection have fallen as Kubica beats an1res and arcsine.

The entries

The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Kubi 166,0 88,3 33
Suti 79,2 39,7 9
Butt 68,0 52,4 1
Webb 63,9 42,7 2
Rosb 56,4 43,4 0
Vett 55,6 40,5 1
Hami 53,4 40,8 0
Liuz 46,2 11,9 6
Alon 40,8 31,5 0
Petr 39,8 14,6 3
Barr 33,8 18,8 2
Mass 32,8 23,2 0
Algu 27,1 11,1 2
Buem 25,3 5,8 1
Schu 19,1 11,7 0
Koba 15,3 6,4 0
Hülk 2,1 1,1 0

Button, Vettel and Barrichello all claim their first scalps of the season.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2010 this is 34.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Vettel Hamilton Button Barrichello Kubica
* Potential 365 * Potential 377 * Potential 371 * Potential 269 * Potential 333
August 283 Apex 310 * Forecast 255 Crazy Canuck 100 * Forecast 175
Costaz 255 jeze 295 shays 230 Anderis 86 coyoteBR 93
kismet 247 Costaz 286 Slick 224 skylark68 80 * Current 83
Apex 245 August 283 Brawn BGP 001 220 jokuvaan 75 an1res 80
an1res 244 Kooper 274 jokuvaan 220 paranoik0 73 arcsine 77
* Forecast 243 * Forecast 268 KWSN - DSM 216 Slick 72 Anderis 72
Wlleiotl 240 Slick 265 jonnyw01 210 Kooper 71 kNt 72
jonnyw01 228 Makarias 264 Costaz 202 Ladaman 71 skylark68 72
scheivlak 226 paranoik0 262 skylark68 202 Apex 70 Apex 65
dnbn 221 LB 260 LB 200 Grayson 70 jokuvaan 61
D82 220 Ladaman 256 Makarias 196 Wlleiotl 70 Crazy Canuck 60
LB 220 shays 255 mark f1 191 kismet 67 fisichella_2001 60
Viceroy 219 scheivlak 254 Apex 190 fisichella_2001 66 jeze 55
paranoik0 217 kNt 249 dnbn 189 AcuraF1 65 Kooper 52
arcsine 213 skylark68 249 Anderis 184 Brawn BGP 001 63 Ladaman 52
AcuraF1 212 D82 240 kNt 182 gerry nassar 63 Grayson 51
Slick 209 dnbn 233 Crazy Canuck 180 Costaz 56 KWSN - DSM 47
Anderis 202 mark f1 232 Estwald 180 D82 55 mark f1 46
fisichella_2001 202 Grayson 230 AcuraF1 179 Estwald 55 Viceroy 46
shays 202 Estwald 226 gerry nassar 179 scheivlak 55 D82 45
Ladaman 200 coyoteBR 225 Viceroy 174 mark f1 53 kismet 45
Makarias 198 gerry nassar 225 Grayson 170 arcsine 52 Slick 45
Grayson 195 arcsine 222 scheivlak 169 dnbn 52 Brawn BGP 001 43
mark f1 195 jokuvaan 221 coyoteBR 163 jonnyw01 50 dnbn 43
coyoteBR 190 Wlleiotl 220 August 162 jeze 48 AcuraF1 42
Crazy Canuck 190 Brawn BGP 001 219 kismet 160 Viceroy 48 Estwald 42
jokuvaan 190 Anderis 216 Wlleiotl 160 kNt 40 gerry nassar 42
skylark68 190 jonnyw01 214 Ladaman 155 * Forecast 40 Costaz 41
gerry nassar 187 Crazy Canuck 210 arcsine 148 Makarias 37 paranoik0 41
jeze 187 fisichella_2001 209 jeze 144 shays 35 jonnyw01 40
Kooper 181 Viceroy 202 paranoik0 143 an1res 30 shays 40
Brawn BGP 001 178 AcuraF1 198 an1res 140 LB 30 LB 35
Estwald 175 KWSN - DSM 196 D82 139 August 25 scheivlak 32
kNt 170 kismet 192 fisichella_2001 134 * Current 19 Wlleiotl 30
* Current 115 an1res 190 * Current 121 coyoteBR 14 Makarias 29
KWSN - DSM 106 * Current 127 Kooper 119 KWSN - DSM 13 August 4

Vettel beats KWSN - DSM and Button beats Kooper, and there is much rejoicement among the players because we humans are inherently bloodthirsty. Barrichello taking fourth is just lovely variation, isn't it?

Guesses on P6-P10:

Sutil Kobayashi Alonso Buemi Rosberg
* Potential 281 * Potential 257 * Potential 348 * Potential 257 * Potential 325
Grayson 77 kNt 108 jeze 310 KWSN - DSM 119 Anderis 172
* Forecast 65 Estwald 72 an1res 290 coyoteBR 65 Crazy Canuck 170
jokuvaan 61 fisichella_2001 71 Costaz 280 Wlleiotl 50 Viceroy 169
kismet 60 gerry nassar 70 Brawn BGP 001 278 Estwald 38 KWSN - DSM 165
dnbn 56 scheivlak 67 Makarias 276 fisichella_2001 38 jokuvaan 161
fisichella_2001 56 Ladaman 62 KWSN - DSM 271 Kooper 37 an1res 160
Kooper 51 Viceroy 61 August 270 Ladaman 37 * Forecast 158
Ladaman 51 jokuvaan 60 Kooper 264 Apex 36 Estwald 153
Wlleiotl 50 Grayson 55 Ladaman 264 Anderis 31 LB 150
scheivlak 49 D82 54 Wlleiotl 260 Makarias 31 kismet 149
skylark68 49 Anderis 51 D82 259 jokuvaan 30 August 143
coyoteBR 45 Costaz 51 mark f1 259 paranoik0 30 scheivlak 141
jonnyw01 45 jonnyw01 50 scheivlak 253 kismet 29 Apex 140
Viceroy 45 LB 50 LB 250 mark f1 28 mark f1 139
gerry nassar 42 Wlleiotl 50 paranoik0 249 Slick 28 Makarias 138
August 41 arcsine 49 arcsine 246 AcuraF1 27 dnbn 133
kNt 41 Kooper 47 Crazy Canuck 240 scheivlak 26 paranoik0 132
Anderis 40 skylark68 44 jonnyw01 239 dnbn 25 arcsine 130
Apex 40 mark f1 43 AcuraF1 238 Viceroy 25 D82 130
Estwald 40 AcuraF1 42 fisichella_2001 236 arcsine 20 Grayson 130
mark f1 40 Slick 36 dnbn 233 Crazy Canuck 20 gerry nassar 128
Costaz 37 Brawn BGP 001 35 shays 232 skylark68 20 shays 125
paranoik0 35 paranoik0 35 Apex 230 LB 18 coyoteBR 124
Slick 35 jeze 34 gerry nassar 230 shays 18 fisichella_2001 121
arcsine 32 KWSN - DSM 33 kismet 227 Brawn BGP 001 17 AcuraF1 120
AcuraF1 31 August 32 coyoteBR 224 gerry nassar 15 kNt 120
* Current 31 Makarias 32 kNt 222 Grayson 15 skylark68 120
an1res 30 kismet 30 skylark68 222 * Forecast 15 Wlleiotl 120
D82 29 shays 30 Viceroy 214 August 14 jonnyw01 114
Crazy Canuck 25 coyoteBR 27 * Forecast 207 jeze 14 Brawn BGP 001 111
Makarias 25 Apex 22 Grayson 197 jonnyw01 13 Kooper 109
shays 22 dnbn 21 Estwald 195 an1res 10 Ladaman 109
jeze 17 Crazy Canuck 20 Slick 184 Costaz 8 Costaz 101
Brawn BGP 001 15 an1res 15 Anderis 169 D82 7 Slick 99
LB 10 * Forecast 15 jokuvaan 156 * Current 7 jeze 97
KWSN - DSM 9 * Current 7 * Current 98 kNt 2 * Current 75

A nice result for Kamui doesn't rattle anyone yet. Buemi sets himself up to upset a few more players whenever possible, just like Sutil already is doing.

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast
Apex 1617,8 31,4
skylark68 1598,9 -5,6
Costaz 1590,3 30,2
dnbn 1583,2 3,3
an1res 1579,9 -18,2
kismet 1574,3 26,0
jokuvaan 1562,7 13,2
LB 1560,8 -9,6
mark f1 1554,9 -6,6
shays 1551,8 -12,0
Anderis 1549,3 -4,2
Viceroy 1547,6 -6,2
Slick 1541,7 14,0
scheivlak 1538,2 7,0
Makarias 1537,1 -3,3
jonnyw01 1534,4 7,2
arcsine 1534,2 -10,0
Grayson 1532,1 18,7
kNt 1531,0 -6,3
Crazy Canuck 1525,2 -16,2
August 1520,9 17,9
paranoik0 1515,6 -1,9
Wlleiotl 1505,9 19,6
gerry nassar 1503,9 -6,9
Estwald 1503,7 7,9
Ladaman 1482,2 -6,2
Brawn BGP 001 1477,9 -6,9
AcuraF1 1477,2 -5,3
D82 1465,1 2,0
fisichella_2001 1460,2 -8,7
Kooper 1440,3 3,1
jeze 1420,2 -0,8
coyoteBR 1407,8 -28,0
KWSN - DSM 1309,4 -35,4

Both ups and downs again this round, with several top team drivers doing poorly. Positive input on the other hand from Barrichello and Kobayashi, and Vettel's forecast improved by 29 points which on the other hand is good news only for a minority of the players...

[Makarias]

The standings after the Britain GP:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) an1res 1002 97
2) arcsine 1001 98
3) Anderis 999 101
= skylark68 999 101
5) Apex 991 101
= kNt 991 101
7) jokuvaan 988 101
8) fisichella_2001 987 101
9) Ladaman 979 101
10) Grayson 978 101
11) Crazy Canuck 977 97
12) mark f1 973 101
= Viceroy 973 101
14) Slick 972 101
15) dnbn 970 101
16) Estwald 969 101
= gerry nassar 969 101
18) Costaz 968 101
= paranoik0 968 101
20) kismet 967 101
21) D82 966 97
22) AcuraF1 965 97
= Kooper 965 89
24) scheivlak 959 101
25) jonnyw01 958 101
26) Wlleiotl 957 101
27) jeze 956 92
28) shays 954 97
29) Brawn BGP 001 950 97
30) Makarias 946 97
31) coyoteBR 942 66
32) LB 930 97
33) August 916 97
34) KWSN - DSM 877 56

Several perfect round scores and generally high average as Kubica for once failed to score points.

The entries

The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Kubi 166,0 88,3 33
Suti 89,4 44,9 11
Webb 79,4 53,1 3
Butt 74,7 57,6 1
Rosb 67,7 52,0 0
Hami 61,0 46,6 0
Vett 58,5 42,6 1
Barr 51,6 28,7 3
Liuz 46,2 11,9 6
Alon 40,8 31,5 0
Petr 39,8 14,6 3
Mass 32,8 23,2 0
Koba 32,7 13,8 0
Algu 27,1 11,1 2
Buem 25,3 5,8 1
Schu 20,2 12,4 0
Hülk 4,1 2,2 0

No big news here, just some drivers crawling ever closer to seemingly inevitable expectation fulfillment.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2010 this is 34.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Webber Hamilton Rosberg Button Barrichello
* Potential 353 * Potential 370 * Potential 315 * Potential 358 * Potential 254
* Forecast 243 Apex 310 Anderis 172 * Forecast 253 Crazy Canuck 100
an1res 240 jeze 295 * Forecast 171 shays 230 Anderis 86
kismet 201 Costaz 286 Crazy Canuck 170 Slick 224 skylark68 80
dnbn 187 August 283 Viceroy 169 Brawn BGP 001 220 jokuvaan 75
kNt 184 * Forecast 276 KWSN - DSM 165 jokuvaan 220 paranoik0 73
skylark68 184 Kooper 274 jokuvaan 161 KWSN - DSM 216 Slick 72
Costaz 183 Slick 265 an1res 160 jonnyw01 210 Kooper 71
Anderis 182 Makarias 264 Estwald 153 Costaz 202 Ladaman 71
LB 180 paranoik0 262 LB 150 skylark68 202 Apex 70
arcsine 176 LB 260 kismet 149 LB 200 Grayson 70
mark f1 176 Ladaman 256 August 143 Makarias 196 Wlleiotl 70
AcuraF1 172 shays 255 scheivlak 141 mark f1 191 kismet 67
jonnyw01 172 scheivlak 254 Apex 140 Apex 190 fisichella_2001 66
August 171 kNt 249 mark f1 139 dnbn 189 AcuraF1 65
Crazy Canuck 170 skylark68 249 Makarias 138 Anderis 184 Brawn BGP 001 63
Viceroy 167 D82 240 dnbn 133 kNt 182 gerry nassar 63
jokuvaan 166 dnbn 233 paranoik0 132 Crazy Canuck 180 Costaz 56
Makarias 166 mark f1 232 arcsine 130 Estwald 180 D82 55
Estwald 165 Grayson 230 D82 130 AcuraF1 179 Estwald 55
gerry nassar 165 Estwald 226 Grayson 130 gerry nassar 179 scheivlak 55
Grayson 165 coyoteBR 225 gerry nassar 128 Viceroy 174 * Forecast 55
shays 160 gerry nassar 225 shays 125 Grayson 170 mark f1 53
Brawn BGP 001 156 arcsine 222 coyoteBR 124 scheivlak 169 arcsine 52
paranoik0 155 jokuvaan 221 fisichella_2001 121 coyoteBR 163 dnbn 52
Slick 154 Wlleiotl 220 AcuraF1 120 August 162 jonnyw01 50
Apex 150 Brawn BGP 001 219 kNt 120 kismet 160 jeze 48
Wlleiotl 150 Anderis 216 skylark68 120 Wlleiotl 160 Viceroy 48
D82 147 jonnyw01 214 Wlleiotl 120 Ladaman 155 kNt 40
fisichella_2001 142 Crazy Canuck 210 jonnyw01 114 arcsine 148 Makarias 37
scheivlak 139 fisichella_2001 209 Brawn BGP 001 111 jeze 144 shays 35
Kooper 131 Viceroy 202 Kooper 109 paranoik0 143 an1res 30
Ladaman 130 AcuraF1 198 Ladaman 109 an1res 140 LB 30
* Current 128 KWSN - DSM 196 Costaz 101 D82 139 * Current 29
jeze 123 kismet 192 Slick 99 fisichella_2001 134 August 25
KWSN - DSM 98 an1res 190 jeze 97 * Current 133 coyoteBR 14
coyoteBR 77 * Current 145 * Current 90 Kooper 119 KWSN - DSM 13

Nico Rosberg is getting close to beating a few players...

Guesses on P6-P10:

Kobayashi Vettel Sutil Schumacher Hülkenberg
* Potential 240 * Potential 346 * Potential 260 coyoteBR 289 * Potential 227
kNt 108 August 283 Grayson 77 KWSN - DSM 286 Anderis 92
Estwald 72 Costaz 255 * Forecast 67 * Potential 261 D82 87
fisichella_2001 71 kismet 247 jokuvaan 61 Estwald 230 AcuraF1 76
gerry nassar 70 Apex 245 kismet 60 Kooper 226 gerry nassar 75
scheivlak 67 an1res 244 dnbn 56 dnbn 205 Brawn BGP 001 70
Ladaman 62 Wlleiotl 240 fisichella_2001 56 Ladaman 205 jeze 70
Viceroy 61 * Forecast 230 Kooper 51 LB 200 fisichella_2001 69
jokuvaan 60 jonnyw01 228 Ladaman 51 scheivlak 196 paranoik0 68
Grayson 55 scheivlak 226 Wlleiotl 50 gerry nassar 193 Slick 66
D82 54 dnbn 221 scheivlak 49 paranoik0 192 arcsine 60
Anderis 51 D82 220 skylark68 49 August 191 Wlleiotl 60
Costaz 51 LB 220 coyoteBR 45 D82 187 coyoteBR 58
jonnyw01 50 Viceroy 219 jonnyw01 45 Makarias 182 scheivlak 54
LB 50 paranoik0 217 Viceroy 45 Crazy Canuck 180 Viceroy 52
Wlleiotl 50 arcsine 213 gerry nassar 42 shays 180 kismet 51
arcsine 49 AcuraF1 212 August 41 jonnyw01 170 Apex 50
Kooper 47 Slick 209 kNt 41 Wlleiotl 170 Crazy Canuck 50
skylark68 44 Anderis 202 Anderis 40 Viceroy 167 jokuvaan 50
mark f1 43 fisichella_2001 202 Apex 40 mark f1 162 Grayson 45
AcuraF1 42 shays 202 Estwald 40 arcsine 160 Estwald 43
Slick 36 Ladaman 200 mark f1 40 Grayson 160 Kooper 39
Brawn BGP 001 35 Makarias 198 Costaz 37 Brawn BGP 001 156 Ladaman 39
paranoik0 35 Grayson 195 paranoik0 35 Costaz 156 mark f1 37
jeze 34 mark f1 195 Slick 35 jeze 154 KWSN - DSM 36
KWSN - DSM 33 coyoteBR 190 * Current 35 fisichella_2001 151 skylark68 34
August 32 Crazy Canuck 190 arcsine 32 AcuraF1 150 Makarias 33
Makarias 32 jokuvaan 190 AcuraF1 31 jokuvaan 150 Costaz 30
kismet 30 skylark68 190 an1res 30 kNt 150 shays 28
shays 30 gerry nassar 187 D82 29 skylark68 150 dnbn 27
* Forecast 29 jeze 187 Crazy Canuck 25 Slick 146 LB 26
coyoteBR 27 Kooper 181 Makarias 25 kismet 144 jonnyw01 25
Apex 22 Brawn BGP 001 178 shays 22 an1res 140 kNt 24
dnbn 21 Estwald 175 jeze 17 Anderis 139 August 14
Crazy Canuck 20 kNt 170 Brawn BGP 001 15 Apex 130 an1res 10
an1res 15 * Current 121 LB 10 * Forecast 68 * Forecast 4
* Current 15 KWSN - DSM 106 KWSN - DSM 9 * Current 36 * Current 2

...much unlike his team-mate Schumacher, who now is the first driver unable to score a 100% surprise in 2010. Recent action on the Barrichello and Kobayashi accounts after early droughts is just lovely.

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast
Apex 1594,6 -23,2
skylark68 1587,7 -11,2
Costaz 1575,8 -14,5
jokuvaan 1572,3 9,6
Anderis 1571,5 22,2
dnbn 1562,7 -20,5
an1res 1550,5 -29,4
Slick 1549,9 8,2
kismet 1549,0 -25,3
mark f1 1539,4 -15,5
Viceroy 1537,4 -10,2
LB 1534,6 -26,2
Grayson 1530,0 -2,1
scheivlak 1527,0 -11,2
shays 1525,6 -26,2
jonnyw01 1520,3 -14,1
arcsine 1517,4 -16,8
Crazy Canuck 1516,9 -8,3
Makarias 1512,2 -24,9
kNt 1507,6 -23,4
paranoik0 1503,1 -12,5
Estwald 1503,0 -0,7
August 1491,6 -29,3
gerry nassar 1490,5 -13,4
Wlleiotl 1482,4 -23,5
Ladaman 1470,4 -11,8
AcuraF1 1467,3 -9,9
Brawn BGP 001 1464,5 -13,4
D82 1456,9 -8,2
fisichella_2001 1446,5 -13,7
Kooper 1434,4 -5,9
jeze 1408,2 -12,0
coyoteBR 1382,0 -25,8
KWSN - DSM 1291,2 -18,2

Forecasts took a turn for the worse due to Ferrari. The three players with positive trends are the lowest guessers for Alonso.

[Makarias]

The standings after the Germany GP:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) arcsine 1096 95
2) an1res 1094 92
= Anderis 1094 95
= skylark68 1094 95
5) Apex 1086 95
= kNt 1086 95
7) jokuvaan 1083 95
8) fisichella_2001 1073 86
= Grayson 1073 95
10) Crazy Canuck 1072 95
11) Ladaman 1068 89
= mark f1 1068 95
= Viceroy 1068 95
14) Slick 1067 95
15) dnbn 1065 95
16) Estwald 1064 95
= gerry nassar 1064 95
18) Costaz 1063 95
= paranoik0 1063 95
20) kismet 1061 94
21) AcuraF1 1060 95
22) D82 1057 91
23) jonnyw01 1053 95
= scheivlak 1053 94
25) Wlleiotl 1052 95
26) shays 1049 95
27) Brawn BGP 001 1045 95
= Kooper 1045 80
29) jeze 1043 87
30) Makarias 1041 95
31) coyoteBR 1035 93
32) LB 1025 95
33) August 1010 94
34) KWSN - DSM 948 71

95 a common score when most players only missed six points for that same old Kubica guy.

The entries

The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Kubi 178,0 94,7 33
Suti 89,4 44,9 11
Webb 84,3 56,4 5
Butt 80,3 61,9 4
Rosb 70,7 54,3 0
Hami 66,0 50,5 0
Vett 65,7 47,9 1
Barr 51,6 28,7 3
Alon 51,2 39,5 0
Petr 46,5 17,1 4
Liuz 46,2 11,9 6
Mass 41,6 29,4 0
Koba 32,7 13,8 0
Algu 27,1 11,1 2
Buem 25,3 5,8 1
Schu 21,4 13,1 0
Hülk 4,1 2,2 0

Webber and Button increased their scalps tallies a bit.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2010 this is 34.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Alonso Massa Vettel Hamilton Button
* Potential 323 KWSN - DSM 288 * Potential 336 * Potential 357 * Potential 343
jeze 310 * Potential 285 August 283 Apex 310 * Forecast 247
an1res 290 shays 282 Costaz 255 jeze 295 shays 230
Costaz 280 jeze 267 kismet 247 Costaz 286 Slick 224
Brawn BGP 001 278 Slick 260 Apex 245 August 283 Brawn BGP 001 220
Makarias 276 coyoteBR 241 an1res 244 Kooper 274 jokuvaan 220
KWSN - DSM 271 Brawn BGP 001 234 Wlleiotl 240 * Forecast 271 KWSN - DSM 216
August 270 Makarias 221 * Forecast 235 Slick 265 jonnyw01 210
Kooper 264 an1res 220 jonnyw01 228 Makarias 264 Costaz 202
Ladaman 264 kNt 215 scheivlak 226 paranoik0 262 skylark68 202
Wlleiotl 260 mark f1 214 dnbn 221 LB 260 LB 200
D82 259 August 211 D82 220 Ladaman 256 Makarias 196
mark f1 259 Kooper 210 LB 220 shays 255 mark f1 191
scheivlak 253 LB 210 Viceroy 219 scheivlak 254 Apex 190
LB 250 kismet 201 paranoik0 217 kNt 249 dnbn 189
paranoik0 249 Crazy Canuck 200 arcsine 213 skylark68 249 Anderis 184
arcsine 246 Grayson 199 AcuraF1 212 D82 240 kNt 182
Crazy Canuck 240 fisichella_2001 198 Slick 209 dnbn 233 Crazy Canuck 180
jonnyw01 239 skylark68 195 Anderis 202 mark f1 232 Estwald 180
AcuraF1 238 Viceroy 194 fisichella_2001 202 Grayson 230 AcuraF1 179
fisichella_2001 236 paranoik0 193 shays 202 Estwald 226 gerry nassar 179
dnbn 233 arcsine 191 Ladaman 200 coyoteBR 225 Viceroy 174
shays 232 Estwald 190 Makarias 198 gerry nassar 225 Grayson 170
Apex 230 Wlleiotl 190 Grayson 195 arcsine 222 scheivlak 169
gerry nassar 230 AcuraF1 186 mark f1 195 jokuvaan 221 coyoteBR 163
kismet 227 jonnyw01 183 coyoteBR 190 Wlleiotl 220 August 162
coyoteBR 224 gerry nassar 182 Crazy Canuck 190 Brawn BGP 001 219 kismet 160
kNt 222 Costaz 181 jokuvaan 190 Anderis 216 Wlleiotl 160
skylark68 222 Ladaman 180 skylark68 190 jonnyw01 214 Ladaman 155
Viceroy 214 scheivlak 178 gerry nassar 187 Crazy Canuck 210 arcsine 148
* Forecast 212 Anderis 177 jeze 187 fisichella_2001 209 jeze 144
Grayson 197 dnbn 176 Kooper 181 Viceroy 202 paranoik0 143
Estwald 195 Apex 160 Brawn BGP 001 178 AcuraF1 198 * Current 143
Slick 184 D82 156 Estwald 175 KWSN - DSM 196 an1res 140
Anderis 169 jokuvaan 156 kNt 170 kismet 192 D82 139
jokuvaan 156 * Forecast 147 * Current 136 an1res 190 fisichella_2001 134
* Current 123 * Current 85 KWSN - DSM 106 * Current 157 Kooper 119

Felipe Massa can no longer achieve a 100% surprise this season. With some good fortune I think he can still beat a few players though, even if the forecast doesn't predict it here.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Webber Kubica Rosberg Schumacher Petrov
* Potential 336 * Potential 289 * Potential 294 coyoteBR 289 * Potential 207
an1res 240 * Forecast 154 Anderis 172 KWSN - DSM 286 an1res 40
* Forecast 235 coyoteBR 93 Crazy Canuck 170 * Potential 238 arcsine 36
kismet 201 * Current 89 Viceroy 169 Estwald 230 skylark68 32
dnbn 187 an1res 80 KWSN - DSM 165 Kooper 226 fisichella_2001 30
kNt 184 arcsine 77 * Forecast 162 dnbn 205 jeze 27
skylark68 184 Anderis 72 jokuvaan 161 Ladaman 205 Viceroy 26
Costaz 183 kNt 72 an1res 160 LB 200 Anderis 24
Anderis 182 skylark68 72 Estwald 153 scheivlak 196 Brawn BGP 001 23
LB 180 Apex 65 LB 150 gerry nassar 193 gerry nassar 20
arcsine 176 jokuvaan 61 kismet 149 paranoik0 192 jokuvaan 20
mark f1 176 Crazy Canuck 60 August 143 August 191 LB 20
AcuraF1 172 fisichella_2001 60 scheivlak 141 D82 187 Apex 19
jonnyw01 172 jeze 55 Apex 140 Makarias 182 shays 15
August 171 Kooper 52 mark f1 139 Crazy Canuck 180 mark f1 14
Crazy Canuck 170 Ladaman 52 Makarias 138 shays 180 Wlleiotl 14
Viceroy 167 Grayson 51 dnbn 133 jonnyw01 170 * Forecast 12
jokuvaan 166 KWSN - DSM 47 paranoik0 132 Wlleiotl 170 Costaz 12
Makarias 166 mark f1 46 arcsine 130 Viceroy 167 Grayson 12
Estwald 165 Viceroy 46 D82 130 mark f1 162 jonnyw01 12
gerry nassar 165 D82 45 Grayson 130 arcsine 160 kNt 12
Grayson 165 kismet 45 gerry nassar 128 Grayson 160 coyoteBR 11
shays 160 Slick 45 shays 125 Brawn BGP 001 156 Estwald 11
Brawn BGP 001 156 Brawn BGP 001 43 coyoteBR 124 Costaz 156 Crazy Canuck 10
paranoik0 155 dnbn 43 fisichella_2001 121 jeze 154 Slick 10
Slick 154 AcuraF1 42 AcuraF1 120 fisichella_2001 151 dnbn 8
Apex 150 Estwald 42 kNt 120 AcuraF1 150 Kooper 8
Wlleiotl 150 gerry nassar 42 skylark68 120 jokuvaan 150 Ladaman 8
D82 147 Costaz 41 Wlleiotl 120 kNt 150 Makarias 8
fisichella_2001 142 paranoik0 41 jonnyw01 114 skylark68 150 AcuraF1 7
scheivlak 139 jonnyw01 40 Brawn BGP 001 111 Slick 146 D82 7
* Current 136 shays 40 Kooper 109 kismet 144 paranoik0 7
Kooper 131 LB 35 Ladaman 109 an1res 140 * Current 7
Ladaman 130 scheivlak 32 Costaz 101 Anderis 139 scheivlak 6
jeze 123 Wlleiotl 30 Slick 99 Apex 130 August 1
KWSN - DSM 98 Makarias 29 jeze 97 * Forecast 66 kismet 1
coyoteBR 77 August 4 * Current 94 * Current 38 KWSN - DSM 1

Kubica is only five points away from a 100% surprise. Rosberg is on his way to beating players soon.

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast
Apex 1631,9 37,3
skylark68 1620,5 32,8
Costaz 1611,6 35,8
dnbn 1601,7 39,0
an1res 1591,2 40,7
kismet 1585,3 36,3
jokuvaan 1577,5 5,2
LB 1573,6 39,0
mark f1 1573,5 34,1
Anderis 1569,4 -2,1
Viceroy 1567,7 30,3
shays 1564,6 39,0
jonnyw01 1559,5 39,2
scheivlak 1558,4 31,4
Slick 1554,9 5,0
arcsine 1552,5 35,1
Makarias 1550,5 38,3
kNt 1547,0 39,4
Crazy Canuck 1543,6 26,7
Grayson 1540,4 10,4
paranoik0 1534,4 31,3
August 1530,6 39,0
gerry nassar 1522,5 32,0
Wlleiotl 1519,4 37,0
Estwald 1516,9 13,9
Ladaman 1502,2 31,8
AcuraF1 1500,6 33,3
Brawn BGP 001 1496,5 32,0
D82 1491,5 34,6
fisichella_2001 1478,5 32,0
Kooper 1463,4 29,0
jeze 1441,4 33,2
coyoteBR 1422,4 40,4
KWSN - DSM 1326,9 35,7

Improved forecasts thanks to Ferrari's strong result, pretty much a reversal of the British GP. As a net result forecasts have improved since Europe.

[Makarias]

The standings after the Hungary GP:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) arcsine 1197 101
2) Anderis 1195 101
= skylark68 1195 101
4) an1res 1189 95
5) kNt 1182 96
6) jokuvaan 1178 95
7) Apex 1176 90
8) Grayson 1169 96
= Viceroy 1169 101
10) Crazy Canuck 1166 94
= mark f1 1166 98
12) gerry nassar 1165 101
13) Costaz 1159 96
= Estwald 1159 95
15) dnbn 1157 92
16) Slick 1154 87
17) kismet 1152 91
18) AcuraF1 1151 91
= fisichella_2001 1151 78
20) jonnyw01 1149 96
21) shays 1147 98
22) paranoik0 1144 81
23) Brawn BGP 001 1141 96
24) Wlleiotl 1139 87
25) Ladaman 1135 67
26) Makarias 1133 92
27) D82 1130 73
28) LB 1126 101
29) scheivlak 1122 69
30) jeze 1116 73
31) Kooper 1108 63
32) coyoteBR 1104 69
33) August 1100 90
34) KWSN - DSM 998 50

Very mixed scores this round, with a few 101's - that won't be very common late in the season.

The entries

The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Kubi 178,0 94,7 33
Petr 112,9 41,5 22
Webb 99,8 66,8 14
Suti 89,4 44,9 11
Butt 82,6 63,6 6
Vett 73,0 53,2 1
Rosb 70,7 54,3 0
Hami 66,0 50,5 0
Alon 58,7 45,3 0
Barr 53,4 29,7 3
Mass 47,5 33,6 0
Liuz 46,2 11,9 6
Koba 37,1 15,6 1
Algu 27,1 11,1 2
Buem 25,3 5,8 1
Schu 21,4 13,1 0
Hülk 20,6 10,8 0
dlRo 14,1 5,6 1

Vitaly Petrov becomes the second driver to beat his 100% expectation mark! Mark Webber misses out by a whisker, but then again he couldn't score better this round anyway. First points for Pedro de la Rosa, and one player immediately beaten.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2010 this is 34.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Webber Alonso Vettel Massa Petrov
* Potential 336 * Potential 316 * Potential 326 KWSN - DSM 288 * Potential 192
* Forecast 255 jeze 310 August 283 shays 282 an1res 40
an1res 240 an1res 290 Costaz 255 * Potential 272 arcsine 36
kismet 201 Costaz 280 kismet 247 jeze 267 skylark68 32
dnbn 187 Brawn BGP 001 278 Apex 245 Slick 260 fisichella_2001 30
kNt 184 Makarias 276 an1res 244 coyoteBR 241 jeze 27
skylark68 184 KWSN - DSM 271 Wlleiotl 240 Brawn BGP 001 234 * Forecast 27
Costaz 183 August 270 * Forecast 239 Makarias 221 Viceroy 26
Anderis 182 Kooper 264 jonnyw01 228 an1res 220 Anderis 24
LB 180 Ladaman 264 scheivlak 226 kNt 215 Brawn BGP 001 23
arcsine 176 Wlleiotl 260 dnbn 221 mark f1 214 gerry nassar 20
mark f1 176 D82 259 D82 220 August 211 jokuvaan 20
AcuraF1 172 mark f1 259 LB 220 Kooper 210 LB 20
jonnyw01 172 scheivlak 253 Viceroy 219 LB 210 Apex 19
August 171 LB 250 paranoik0 217 kismet 201 * Current 17
Crazy Canuck 170 paranoik0 249 arcsine 213 Crazy Canuck 200 shays 15
Viceroy 167 arcsine 246 AcuraF1 212 Grayson 199 mark f1 14
jokuvaan 166 Crazy Canuck 240 Slick 209 fisichella_2001 198 Wlleiotl 14
Makarias 166 jonnyw01 239 Anderis 202 skylark68 195 Costaz 12
Estwald 165 AcuraF1 238 fisichella_2001 202 Viceroy 194 Grayson 12
gerry nassar 165 fisichella_2001 236 shays 202 paranoik0 193 jonnyw01 12
Grayson 165 dnbn 233 Ladaman 200 arcsine 191 kNt 12
* Current 161 shays 232 Makarias 198 Estwald 190 coyoteBR 11
shays 160 Apex 230 Grayson 195 Wlleiotl 190 Estwald 11
Brawn BGP 001 156 gerry nassar 230 mark f1 195 AcuraF1 186 Crazy Canuck 10
paranoik0 155 kismet 227 coyoteBR 190 jonnyw01 183 Slick 10
Slick 154 coyoteBR 224 Crazy Canuck 190 gerry nassar 182 dnbn 8
Apex 150 * Forecast 223 jokuvaan 190 Costaz 181 Kooper 8
Wlleiotl 150 kNt 222 skylark68 190 Ladaman 180 Ladaman 8
D82 147 skylark68 222 gerry nassar 187 scheivlak 178 Makarias 8
fisichella_2001 142 Viceroy 214 jeze 187 Anderis 177 AcuraF1 7
scheivlak 139 Grayson 197 Kooper 181 dnbn 176 D82 7
Kooper 131 Estwald 195 Brawn BGP 001 178 Apex 160 paranoik0 7
Ladaman 130 Slick 184 Estwald 175 D82 156 scheivlak 6
jeze 123 Anderis 169 kNt 170 jokuvaan 156 August 1
KWSN - DSM 98 jokuvaan 156 * Current 151 * Forecast 154 kismet 1
coyoteBR 77 * Current 141 KWSN - DSM 106 * Current 97 KWSN - DSM 1

Mark Webber takes plenty of new scalps and can reach everyone else except an1res within the next couple of races. Petrov too climbs strongly up his ladder, not going the consistent route in terms of points scoring.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Hülkenberg de la Rosa Button Kobayashi Barrichello
* Potential 185 * Potential 181 * Potential 322 * Potential 192 * Potential 205
Anderis 92 kNt 106 * Forecast 233 kNt 108 Crazy Canuck 100
D82 87 D82 98 shays 230 Estwald 72 Anderis 86
AcuraF1 76 AcuraF1 87 Slick 224 fisichella_2001 71 skylark68 80
gerry nassar 75 jonnyw01 75 Brawn BGP 001 220 gerry nassar 70 jokuvaan 75
Brawn BGP 001 70 August 62 jokuvaan 220 scheivlak 67 paranoik0 73
jeze 70 Estwald 60 KWSN - DSM 216 Ladaman 62 Slick 72
fisichella_2001 69 Grayson 60 jonnyw01 210 Viceroy 61 Kooper 71
paranoik0 68 Crazy Canuck 55 Costaz 202 jokuvaan 60 Ladaman 71
Slick 66 dnbn 53 skylark68 202 Grayson 55 Apex 70
arcsine 60 kismet 49 LB 200 D82 54 Grayson 70
Wlleiotl 60 Kooper 49 Makarias 196 Anderis 51 Wlleiotl 70
coyoteBR 58 Ladaman 49 mark f1 191 Costaz 51 kismet 67
scheivlak 54 fisichella_2001 45 Apex 190 jonnyw01 50 fisichella_2001 66
Viceroy 52 Wlleiotl 45 dnbn 189 LB 50 AcuraF1 65
kismet 51 Makarias 44 Anderis 184 Wlleiotl 50 Brawn BGP 001 63
Apex 50 Viceroy 42 kNt 182 arcsine 49 gerry nassar 63
Crazy Canuck 50 arcsine 41 Crazy Canuck 180 Kooper 47 Costaz 56
jokuvaan 50 Brawn BGP 001 40 Estwald 180 skylark68 44 D82 55
Grayson 45 mark f1 37 AcuraF1 179 mark f1 43 Estwald 55
Estwald 43 paranoik0 37 gerry nassar 179 AcuraF1 42 scheivlak 55
Kooper 39 Slick 34 Viceroy 174 Slick 36 mark f1 53
Ladaman 39 gerry nassar 33 Grayson 170 Brawn BGP 001 35 arcsine 52
mark f1 37 an1res 30 scheivlak 169 paranoik0 35 dnbn 52
KWSN - DSM 36 skylark68 28 coyoteBR 163 jeze 34 jonnyw01 50
skylark68 34 jeze 25 August 162 KWSN - DSM 33 * Forecast 48
Makarias 33 scheivlak 25 kismet 160 August 32 jeze 48
Costaz 30 shays 25 Wlleiotl 160 Makarias 32 Viceroy 48
shays 28 LB 22 Ladaman 155 kismet 30 kNt 40
dnbn 27 Anderis 21 arcsine 148 shays 30 Makarias 37
LB 26 Apex 20 * Current 147 * Forecast 27 shays 35
jonnyw01 25 Costaz 18 jeze 144 coyoteBR 27 an1res 30
kNt 24 KWSN - DSM 17 paranoik0 143 Apex 22 LB 30
* Forecast 16 coyoteBR 11 an1res 140 dnbn 21 * Current 30
August 14 * Forecast 10 D82 139 Crazy Canuck 20 August 25
an1res 10 * Current 6 fisichella_2001 134 * Current 17 coyoteBR 14
* Current 10 jokuvaan 0 Kooper 119 an1res 15 KWSN - DSM 13

Hülkenberg positions himself for beating players after a difficult start to his F1 career, but the Williams certainly seems stronger now. In the likewise improved Sauber, de la Rosa and Kobayashi must hope that there's more success within reach this season.

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast
skylark68 1662,8 42,4
Apex 1650,3 18,4
dnbn 1631,1 29,4
an1res 1630,1 38,9
Costaz 1625,2 13,5
kismet 1613,9 28,6
mark f1 1604,6 31,1
LB 1602,5 28,9
arcsine 1596,5 44,0
shays 1594,7 30,0
jonnyw01 1590,6 31,0
Viceroy 1590,2 22,4
Anderis 1586,2 16,8
scheivlak 1582,2 23,8
kNt 1578,6 31,6
jokuvaan 1577,1 -0,4
Makarias 1568,7 18,1
gerry nassar 1559,6 37,1
Crazy Canuck 1558,5 14,9
Slick 1556,9 2,0
Wlleiotl 1554,7 35,3
Grayson 1553,8 13,4
paranoik0 1550,2 15,8
August 1543,9 13,3
Brawn BGP 001 1536,6 40,1
AcuraF1 1531,6 30,9
Estwald 1531,2 14,3
Ladaman 1524,4 22,2
D82 1523,5 32,0
fisichella_2001 1521,9 43,5
Kooper 1470,4 7,1
jeze 1465,3 24,0
coyoteBR 1456,3 34,0
KWSN - DSM 1346,9 20,0

Hülkenberg and de la Rosa made the forecasts go up for everyone but jokuvaan, who didn't submit any points for Pedro...