3 replies to this topic

[Makarias]

The standings after the Belgium GP:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) skylark68 1281 86
2) Anderis 1276 81
3) arcsine 1270 73
4) an1res 1261 72
= kNt 1261 79
6) jokuvaan 1251 73
7) Viceroy 1243 74
8) mark f1 1242 76
9) dnbn 1241 84
10) Apex 1239 63
= Grayson 1239 70
12) kismet 1236 84
13) Costaz 1234 75
= gerry nassar 1234 69
15) Crazy Canuck 1230 64
16) jonnyw01 1226 77
17) Estwald 1224 65
18) fisichella_2001 1219 68
19) AcuraF1 1218 67
20) Slick 1207 53
21) Wlleiotl 1205 66
22) shays 1203 56
23) LB 1202 76
24) Ladaman 1201 66
25) paranoik0 1200 56
26) Brawn BGP 001 1199 58
27) Makarias 1194 61
28) scheivlak 1188 66
29) D82 1186 56
30) coyoteBR 1174 70
= Kooper 1174 66
32) August 1172 72
33) jeze 1168 52
34) KWSN - DSM 1054 56

Nobody got even close to a perfect score now, as most of the most underestimated drivers this season did well in Belgium. A new leader in skylark68, who only got confused by that

Polish driver this round.

The entries

The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Kubi 208,0 110,6 34
Petr 126,2 46,3 22
Suti 115,0 57,7 21
Webb 111,0 74,3 26
Butt 82,6 63,6 6
Rosb 76,7 59,0 3
Hami 76,6 58,5 0
Vett 73,0 53,2 1
Alon 58,7 45,3 0
Mass 53,4 37,7 0
Barr 53,4 29,7 3
Liuz 46,2 11,9 6
Koba 45,8 19,3 2
Algu 36,1 14,8 2
Buem 25,3 5,8 1
Schu 24,7 15,2 0
Hülk 20,6 10,8 0
dlRo 14,1 5,6 1

The writing has been on the wall for ages and now it has happened: Robert Kubica is the first 100% surprise of 2010! Congratulations!
Mark Webber became the third driver to beat his 100% expectation mark this season, only to drop to fourth in the rankings seven seconds later as Adrian Sutil followed suit.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by

beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2010 this is 34.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Hamilton Webber Kubica Massa Sutil
* Potential 332 * Potential 329 * Potential 254 KWSN - DSM 288 * Potential 195
Apex 310 * Forecast 262 * Forecast 152 shays 282 Grayson 77
jeze 295 an1res 240 * Current 104 jeze 267 * Forecast 66
Costaz 286 kismet 201 coyoteBR 93 Slick 260 jokuvaan 61
August 283 dnbn 187 an1res 80 * Potential 259 kismet 60
Kooper 274 kNt 184 arcsine 77 coyoteBR 241 dnbn 56
* Forecast 266 skylark68 184 Anderis 72 Brawn BGP 001 234 fisichella_2001 56
Slick 265 Costaz 183 kNt 72 Makarias 221 Kooper 51
Makarias 264 Anderis 182 skylark68 72 an1res 220 Ladaman 51
paranoik0 262 LB 180 Apex 65 kNt 215 Wlleiotl 50
LB 260 * Current 179 jokuvaan 61 mark f1 214 scheivlak 49
Ladaman 256 arcsine 176 Crazy Canuck 60 August 211 skylark68 49
shays 255 mark f1 176 fisichella_2001 60 Kooper 210 coyoteBR 45
scheivlak 254 AcuraF1 172 jeze 55 LB 210 jonnyw01 45
kNt 249 jonnyw01 172 Kooper 52 kismet 201 Viceroy 45
skylark68 249 August 171 Ladaman 52 Crazy Canuck 200 * Current 45
D82 240 Crazy Canuck 170 Grayson 51 Grayson 199 gerry nassar 42
dnbn 233 Viceroy 167 KWSN - DSM 47 fisichella_2001 198 August 41
mark f1 232 jokuvaan 166 mark f1 46 skylark68 195 kNt 41
Grayson 230 Makarias 166 Viceroy 46 Viceroy 194 Anderis 40
Estwald 226 Estwald 165 D82 45 paranoik0 193 Apex 40
coyoteBR 225 gerry nassar 165 kismet 45 arcsine 191 Estwald 40
gerry nassar 225 Grayson 165 Slick 45 Estwald 190 mark f1 40
arcsine 222 shays 160 Brawn BGP 001 43 Wlleiotl 190 Costaz 37
jokuvaan 221 Brawn BGP 001 156 dnbn 43 AcuraF1 186 paranoik0 35
Wlleiotl 220 paranoik0 155 AcuraF1 42 jonnyw01 183 Slick 35
Brawn BGP 001 219 Slick 154 Estwald 42 gerry nassar 182 arcsine 32
Anderis 216 Apex 150 gerry nassar 42 Costaz 181 AcuraF1 31
jonnyw01 214 Wlleiotl 150 Costaz 41 Ladaman 180 an1res 30
Crazy Canuck 210 D82 147 paranoik0 41 scheivlak 178 D82 29
fisichella_2001 209 fisichella_2001 142 jonnyw01 40 Anderis 177 Crazy Canuck 25
Viceroy 202 scheivlak 139 shays 40 dnbn 176 Makarias 25
AcuraF1 198 Kooper 131 LB 35 Apex 160 shays 22
KWSN - DSM 196 Ladaman 130 scheivlak 32 * Forecast 159 jeze 17
kismet 192 jeze 123 Wlleiotl 30 D82 156 Brawn BGP 001 15
an1res 190 KWSN - DSM 98 Makarias 29 jokuvaan 156 LB 10
* Current 182 coyoteBR 77 August 4 * Current 109 KWSN - DSM 9

Adrian Sutil had a couple of barren races prior to Belgium, but came back with a vengeance and moved well up his ladder. Note that Webber is well on course for a 100%

surprise.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Rosberg Schumacher Kobayashi Petrov Alguersuari
* Potential 252 coyoteBR 289 * Potential 171 * Potential 169 * Potential 154
Anderis 172 KWSN - DSM 286 kNt 108 an1res 40 Apex 26
Crazy Canuck 170 Estwald 230 Estwald 72 arcsine 36 fisichella_2001 26
Viceroy 169 Kooper 226 fisichella_2001 71 skylark68 32 jokuvaan 20
KWSN - DSM 165 dnbn 205 gerry nassar 70 fisichella_2001 30 mark f1 19
jokuvaan 161 Ladaman 205 scheivlak 67 * Forecast 28 skylark68 18
an1res 160 LB 200 Ladaman 62 jeze 27 kismet 16
Estwald 153 scheivlak 196 Viceroy 61 Viceroy 26 LB 15
LB 150 * Potential 194 jokuvaan 60 Anderis 24 Wlleiotl 15
* Forecast 149 gerry nassar 193 Grayson 55 Brawn BGP 001 23 Estwald 14
kismet 149 paranoik0 192 D82 54 gerry nassar 20 Makarias 14
August 143 August 191 Anderis 51 jokuvaan 20 jonnyw01 13
scheivlak 141 D82 187 Costaz 51 LB 20 Anderis 12
Apex 140 Makarias 182 jonnyw01 50 Apex 19 Grayson 12
mark f1 139 Crazy Canuck 180 LB 50 * Current 19 shays 12
Makarias 138 shays 180 Wlleiotl 50 shays 15 Viceroy 12
dnbn 133 jonnyw01 170 arcsine 49 mark f1 14 AcuraF1 11
paranoik0 132 Wlleiotl 170 Kooper 47 Wlleiotl 14 arcsine 11
arcsine 130 Viceroy 167 skylark68 44 Costaz 12 KWSN - DSM 11
D82 130 mark f1 162 mark f1 43 Grayson 12 an1res 10
Grayson 130 arcsine 160 AcuraF1 42 jonnyw01 12 Brawn BGP 001 10
gerry nassar 128 Grayson 160 Slick 36 kNt 12 dnbn 10
shays 125 Brawn BGP 001 156 Brawn BGP 001 35 coyoteBR 11 gerry nassar 10
coyoteBR 124 Costaz 156 paranoik0 35 Estwald 11 scheivlak 9
fisichella_2001 121 jeze 154 jeze 34 Crazy Canuck 10 Slick 8
AcuraF1 120 fisichella_2001 151 KWSN - DSM 33 Slick 10 Costaz 7
kNt 120 AcuraF1 150 August 32 dnbn 8 paranoik0 7
skylark68 120 jokuvaan 150 Makarias 32 Kooper 8 * Forecast 6
Wlleiotl 120 kNt 150 * Forecast 31 Ladaman 8 August 6
jonnyw01 114 skylark68 150 kismet 30 Makarias 8 D82 6
Brawn BGP 001 111 Slick 146 shays 30 AcuraF1 7 Crazy Canuck 5
Kooper 109 kismet 144 coyoteBR 27 D82 7 coyoteBR 4
Ladaman 109 an1res 140 Apex 22 paranoik0 7 Kooper 4
* Current 102 Anderis 139 dnbn 21 scheivlak 6 Ladaman 4
Costaz 101 Apex 130 * Current 21 August 1 * Current 4
Slick 99 * Forecast 64 Crazy Canuck 20 kismet 1 jeze 0
jeze 97 * Current 44 an1res 15 KWSN - DSM 1 kNt 0

Nico Rosberg beats the first players for the season.

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast
skylark68 1655,0 -7,8
Apex 1636,7 -13,6
dnbn 1618,7 -12,4
Costaz 1616,2 -9,0
LB 1608,9 6,4
an1res 1604,4 -25,7
mark f1 1594,2 -10,4
Anderis 1593,2 7,1
Viceroy 1589,3 -0,9
kismet 1589,2 -24,7
arcsine 1587,0 -9,5
jokuvaan 1582,0 4,9
shays 1580,0 -14,7
Makarias 1578,4 9,7
jonnyw01 1574,4 -16,2
kNt 1573,3 -5,3
scheivlak 1571,9 -10,2
Slick 1571,0 14,1
Grayson 1570,9 17,2
paranoik0 1553,2 3,1
gerry nassar 1549,2 -10,4
Crazy Canuck 1543,8 -14,7
August 1538,9 -5,0
Estwald 1538,2 7,1
Wlleiotl 1525,9 -28,7
AcuraF1 1522,2 -9,4
Brawn BGP 001 1521,1 -15,5
Ladaman 1520,4 -4,0
fisichella_2001 1513,0 -8,9
D82 1511,7 -11,8
Kooper 1476,4 6,0
jeze 1471,4 6,1
coyoteBR 1446,3 -10
KWSN - DSM 1340,8 -6,1

No points for Alonso and Vettel turned the forecasts down on average, but Hamilton's win and other tidbits balanced it out for some.

[Viceroy]

Liuzzi got 10th place from Algesuari, because the latter got a 20 seconds penalty for cutting a chicane.

[Makarias]

Dammit, shoulda read the news properly before I did the results.

[Makarias]

For comments etc, see opening post.

The standings after the Belgium GP:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) skylark68 1281 86
2) Anderis 1276 81
3) arcsine 1270 73
4) kNt 1262 80
5) an1res 1261 72
6) jokuvaan 1251 73
7) Viceroy 1243 74
8) mark f1 1242 76
9) dnbn 1241 84
10) Grayson 1239 70
11) Apex 1238 62
12) kismet 1236 84
13) gerry nassar 1234 69
14) Costaz 1233 74
15) Crazy Canuck 1230 64
16) jonnyw01 1225 76
17) Estwald 1224 65
18) fisichella_2001 1219 68
19) AcuraF1 1218 67
20) Slick 1207 53
21) Wlleiotl 1205 66
22) shays 1202 55
23) Ladaman 1201 66
= LB 1201 75
25) paranoik0 1200 56
26) Brawn BGP 001 1199 58
27) Makarias 1194 61
28) scheivlak 1188 66
29) D82 1186 56
30) Kooper 1174 66
31) coyoteBR 1173 69
32) August 1171 71
33) jeze 1169 53
34) KWSN - DSM 1053 55

The entries

The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Kubi 208,0 110,6 34
Petr 126,2 46,3 22
Suti 115,0 57,7 21
Webb 111,0 74,3 26
Butt 82,6 63,6 6
Rosb 76,7 59,0 3
Hami 76,6 58,5 0
Vett 73,0 53,2 1
Alon 58,7 45,3 0
Mass 53,4 37,7 0
Barr 53,4 29,7 3
Liuz 50,1 12,9 8
Koba 45,8 19,3 2
Algu 27,1 11,1 2
Buem 25,3 5,8 1
Schu 24,7 15,2 0
Hülk 20,6 10,8 0
dlRo 14,1 5,6 1

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by

beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2010 this is 34.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Hamilton Webber Kubica Massa Sutil
* Potential 332 * Potential 329 * Potential 254 KWSN - DSM 288 * Potential 195
Apex 310 * Forecast 262 * Forecast 152 shays 282 Grayson 77
jeze 295 an1res 240 * Current 104 jeze 267 * Forecast 66
Costaz 286 kismet 201 coyoteBR 93 Slick 260 jokuvaan 61
August 283 dnbn 187 an1res 80 * Potential 259 kismet 60
Kooper 274 kNt 184 arcsine 77 coyoteBR 241 dnbn 56
* Forecast 266 skylark68 184 Anderis 72 Brawn BGP 001 234 fisichella_2001 56
Slick 265 Costaz 183 kNt 72 Makarias 221 Kooper 51
Makarias 264 Anderis 182 skylark68 72 an1res 220 Ladaman 51
paranoik0 262 LB 180 Apex 65 kNt 215 Wlleiotl 50
LB 260 * Current 179 jokuvaan 61 mark f1 214 scheivlak 49
Ladaman 256 arcsine 176 Crazy Canuck 60 August 211 skylark68 49
shays 255 mark f1 176 fisichella_2001 60 Kooper 210 coyoteBR 45
scheivlak 254 AcuraF1 172 jeze 55 LB 210 jonnyw01 45
kNt 249 jonnyw01 172 Kooper 52 kismet 201 Viceroy 45
skylark68 249 August 171 Ladaman 52 Crazy Canuck 200 * Current 45
D82 240 Crazy Canuck 170 Grayson 51 Grayson 199 gerry nassar 42
dnbn 233 Viceroy 167 KWSN - DSM 47 fisichella_2001 198 August 41
mark f1 232 jokuvaan 166 mark f1 46 skylark68 195 kNt 41
Grayson 230 Makarias 166 Viceroy 46 Viceroy 194 Anderis 40
Estwald 226 Estwald 165 D82 45 paranoik0 193 Apex 40
coyoteBR 225 gerry nassar 165 kismet 45 arcsine 191 Estwald 40
gerry nassar 225 Grayson 165 Slick 45 Estwald 190 mark f1 40
arcsine 222 shays 160 Brawn BGP 001 43 Wlleiotl 190 Costaz 37
jokuvaan 221 Brawn BGP 001 156 dnbn 43 AcuraF1 186 paranoik0 35
Wlleiotl 220 paranoik0 155 AcuraF1 42 jonnyw01 183 Slick 35
Brawn BGP 001 219 Slick 154 Estwald 42 gerry nassar 182 arcsine 32
Anderis 216 Apex 150 gerry nassar 42 Costaz 181 AcuraF1 31
jonnyw01 214 Wlleiotl 150 Costaz 41 Ladaman 180 an1res 30
Crazy Canuck 210 D82 147 paranoik0 41 scheivlak 178 D82 29
fisichella_2001 209 fisichella_2001 142 jonnyw01 40 Anderis 177 Crazy Canuck 25
Viceroy 202 scheivlak 139 shays 40 dnbn 176 Makarias 25
AcuraF1 198 Kooper 131 LB 35 Apex 160 shays 22
KWSN - DSM 196 Ladaman 130 scheivlak 32 * Forecast 159 jeze 17
kismet 192 jeze 123 Wlleiotl 30 D82 156 Brawn BGP 001 15
an1res 190 KWSN - DSM 98 Makarias 29 jokuvaan 156 LB 10
* Current 182 coyoteBR 77 August 4 * Current 109 KWSN - DSM 9

Guesses on P6-P10:

Rosberg Schumacher Kobayashi Petrov Liuzzi
* Potential 252 coyoteBR 289 * Potential 171 * Potential 169 * Potential 163
Anderis 172 KWSN - DSM 286 kNt 108 an1res 40 jokuvaan 100
Crazy Canuck 170 Estwald 230 Estwald 72 arcsine 36 fisichella_2001 50
Viceroy 169 Kooper 226 fisichella_2001 71 skylark68 32 kismet 46
KWSN - DSM 165 dnbn 205 gerry nassar 70 fisichella_2001 30 arcsine 44
jokuvaan 161 Ladaman 205 scheivlak 67 * Forecast 28 Grayson 41
an1res 160 LB 200 Ladaman 62 jeze 27 Slick 37
Estwald 153 scheivlak 196 Viceroy 61 Viceroy 26 jeze 36
LB 150 * Potential 194 jokuvaan 60 Anderis 24 paranoik0 36
* Forecast 149 gerry nassar 193 Grayson 55 Brawn BGP 001 23 an1res 30
kismet 149 paranoik0 192 D82 54 gerry nassar 20 Estwald 30
August 143 August 191 Anderis 51 jokuvaan 20 Viceroy 29
scheivlak 141 D82 187 Costaz 51 LB 20 Kooper 27
Apex 140 Makarias 182 jonnyw01 50 Apex 19 Ladaman 27
mark f1 139 Crazy Canuck 180 LB 50 * Current 19 Brawn BGP 001 25
Makarias 138 shays 180 Wlleiotl 50 shays 15 Crazy Canuck 25
dnbn 133 jonnyw01 170 arcsine 49 mark f1 14 gerry nassar 25
paranoik0 132 Wlleiotl 170 Kooper 47 Wlleiotl 14 mark f1 25
arcsine 130 Viceroy 167 skylark68 44 Costaz 12 Wlleiotl 25
D82 130 mark f1 162 mark f1 43 Grayson 12 scheivlak 24
Grayson 130 arcsine 160 AcuraF1 42 jonnyw01 12 Anderis 22
gerry nassar 128 Grayson 160 Slick 36 kNt 12 kNt 22
shays 125 Brawn BGP 001 156 Brawn BGP 001 35 coyoteBR 11 skylark68 22
coyoteBR 124 Costaz 156 paranoik0 35 Estwald 11 * Forecast 19
fisichella_2001 121 jeze 154 jeze 34 Crazy Canuck 10 AcuraF1 18
AcuraF1 120 fisichella_2001 151 KWSN - DSM 33 Slick 10 D82 18
kNt 120 AcuraF1 150 August 32 dnbn 8 Makarias 18
skylark68 120 jokuvaan 150 Makarias 32 Kooper 8 dnbn 15
Wlleiotl 120 kNt 150 * Forecast 31 Ladaman 8 * Current 13
jonnyw01 114 skylark68 150 kismet 30 Makarias 8 Costaz 12
Brawn BGP 001 111 Slick 146 shays 30 AcuraF1 7 shays 12
Kooper 109 kismet 144 coyoteBR 27 D82 7 Apex 11
Ladaman 109 an1res 140 Apex 22 paranoik0 7 coyoteBR 10
* Current 102 Anderis 139 dnbn 21 scheivlak 6 KWSN - DSM 7
Costaz 101 Apex 130 * Current 21 August 1 August 6
Slick 99 * Forecast 64 Crazy Canuck 20 kismet 1 LB 5
jeze 97 * Current 44 an1res 15 KWSN - DSM 1 jonnyw01 3

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast
skylark68 1655,0 -7,8
Apex 1635,2 -15,1
dnbn 1617,2 -13,9
Costaz 1614,7 -10,5
LB 1607,5 5,0
an1res 1604,4 -25,7
mark f1 1594,2 -10,4
Anderis 1593,2 7,1
Viceroy 1589,3 -0,9
kismet 1589,2 -24,7
arcsine 1587,0 -9,5
jokuvaan 1582,0 4,9
shays 1578,5 -16,1
Makarias 1577,4 8,7
kNt 1574,8 -3,8
jonnyw01 1572,9 -17,7
scheivlak 1571,9 -10,2
Slick 1571,0 14,1
Grayson 1570,9 17,2
paranoik0 1553,2 3,1
gerry nassar 1549,2 -10,4
Crazy Canuck 1544,6 -13,9
Estwald 1538,2 7,1
August 1537,5 -6,5
Wlleiotl 1525,9 -28,7
Ladaman 1521,8 -2,6
AcuraF1 1521,2 -10,4
Brawn BGP 001 1521,1 -15,5
fisichella_2001 1513,0 -8,9
D82 1510,7 -12,8
Kooper 1477,8 7,4
jeze 1472,8 7,5
coyoteBR 1446,3 -10,0
KWSN - DSM 1339,3 -7,6