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[Makarias]

The standings after the Singapore GP:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) skylark68 1453 78
2) Anderis 1424 56
3) kNt 1421 65
4) dnbn 1418 80
5) kismet 1410 82
6) mark f1 1409 78
7) arcsine 1408 66
8) Viceroy 1407 75
9) an1res 1405 72
= Apex 1405 78
11) gerry nassar 1401 78
= Grayson 1401 73
13) Crazy Canuck 1397 78
14) Estwald 1385 72
= jokuvaan 1385 55
16) Costaz 1384 68
= jonnyw01 1384 70
18) AcuraF1 1383 76
19) shays 1365 74
20) LB 1360 70
21) Makarias 1359 76
22) fisichella_2001 1357 67
23) Wlleiotl 1355 66
24) Brawn BGP 001 1352 65
25) scheivlak 1349 72
26) Slick 1347 61
27) paranoik0 1337 66
28) Ladaman 1335 58
29) D82 1323 66
30) coyoteBR 1317 58
31) August 1311 57
32) Kooper 1300 58
33) jeze 1286 56
34) KWSN - DSM 1181 52

Proper differences in the scores now, with people missing points from different top drivers. A proper lead for skylark68.

The entries

The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Kubi 228,0 121,3 34
Petr 126,2 46,3 22
Webb 125,2 83,8 33
Suti 120,1 60,3 24
Butt 99,4 76,6 15
Rosb 91,7 70,5 12
Vett 87,5 63,7 4
Alon 79,5 61,4 3
Hami 76,6 58,5 0
Barr 69,4 38,6 7
Mass 62,7 44,3 0
Liuz 50,1 12,9 8
Koba 45,8 19,3 2
Hülk 35,1 18,3 2
Algu 27,1 11,1 2
Schu 25,9 15,9 0
Buem 25,3 5,8 1
dlRo 14,1 5,6 1

Button narrowly missing out on his 100% expectation mark, needing another two points to make it...

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2010 this is 34.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Alonso Vettel Webber Button Rosberg
jeze 310 August 283 * Potential 302 * Potential 277 * Potential 222
* Potential 291 * Potential 281 * Forecast 256 shays 230 Anderis 172
an1res 290 Costaz 255 an1res 240 * Forecast 224 Crazy Canuck 170
Costaz 280 kismet 247 * Current 202 Slick 224 Viceroy 169
Brawn BGP 001 278 Apex 245 kismet 201 Brawn BGP 001 220 KWSN - DSM 165
Makarias 276 an1res 244 dnbn 187 jokuvaan 220 jokuvaan 161
KWSN - DSM 271 Wlleiotl 240 kNt 184 KWSN - DSM 216 an1res 160
August 270 * Forecast 229 skylark68 184 jonnyw01 210 * Forecast 155
Kooper 264 jonnyw01 228 Costaz 183 Costaz 202 Estwald 153
Ladaman 264 scheivlak 226 Anderis 182 skylark68 202 LB 150
Wlleiotl 260 dnbn 221 LB 180 LB 200 kismet 149
D82 259 D82 220 arcsine 176 Makarias 196 August 143
mark f1 259 LB 220 mark f1 176 mark f1 191 scheivlak 141
scheivlak 253 Viceroy 219 AcuraF1 172 Apex 190 Apex 140
LB 250 paranoik0 217 jonnyw01 172 dnbn 189 mark f1 139
paranoik0 249 arcsine 213 August 171 Anderis 184 Makarias 138
arcsine 246 AcuraF1 212 Crazy Canuck 170 kNt 182 dnbn 133
* Forecast 242 Slick 209 Viceroy 167 Crazy Canuck 180 paranoik0 132
Crazy Canuck 240 Anderis 202 jokuvaan 166 Estwald 180 arcsine 130
jonnyw01 239 fisichella_2001 202 Makarias 166 AcuraF1 179 D82 130
AcuraF1 238 shays 202 Estwald 165 gerry nassar 179 Grayson 130
fisichella_2001 236 Ladaman 200 gerry nassar 165 * Current 177 gerry nassar 128
dnbn 233 Makarias 198 Grayson 165 Viceroy 174 shays 125
shays 232 Grayson 195 shays 160 Grayson 170 coyoteBR 124
Apex 230 mark f1 195 Brawn BGP 001 156 scheivlak 169 * Current 122
gerry nassar 230 coyoteBR 190 paranoik0 155 coyoteBR 163 fisichella_2001 121
kismet 227 Crazy Canuck 190 Slick 154 August 162 AcuraF1 120
coyoteBR 224 jokuvaan 190 Apex 150 kismet 160 kNt 120
kNt 222 skylark68 190 Wlleiotl 150 Wlleiotl 160 skylark68 120
skylark68 222 gerry nassar 187 D82 147 Ladaman 155 Wlleiotl 120
Viceroy 214 jeze 187 fisichella_2001 142 arcsine 148 jonnyw01 114
Grayson 197 Kooper 181 scheivlak 139 jeze 144 Brawn BGP 001 111
Estwald 195 * Current 181 Kooper 131 paranoik0 143 Kooper 109
* Current 191 Brawn BGP 001 178 Ladaman 130 an1res 140 Ladaman 109
Slick 184 Estwald 175 jeze 123 D82 139 Costaz 101
Anderis 169 kNt 170 KWSN - DSM 98 fisichella_2001 134 Slick 99
jokuvaan 156 KWSN - DSM 106 coyoteBR 77 Kooper 119 jeze 97

The top five all beat new players this round, Webber now having just an1res left to beat for a 100% surprise. That opportunity is now gone for Vettel, however.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Barrichello Kubica Massa Sutil Hülkenberg
* Potential 139 * Potential 214 KWSN - DSM 288 * Potential 147 * Potential 117
Crazy Canuck 100 * Forecast 144 shays 282 Grayson 77 Anderis 92
Anderis 86 * Current 114 jeze 267 jokuvaan 61 D82 87
skylark68 80 coyoteBR 93 Slick 260 * Forecast 60 AcuraF1 76
jokuvaan 75 an1res 80 coyoteBR 241 kismet 60 gerry nassar 75
paranoik0 73 arcsine 77 Brawn BGP 001 234 dnbn 56 Brawn BGP 001 70
Slick 72 Anderis 72 * Potential 228 fisichella_2001 56 jeze 70
Kooper 71 kNt 72 Makarias 221 Kooper 51 fisichella_2001 69
Ladaman 71 skylark68 72 an1res 220 Ladaman 51 paranoik0 68
Apex 70 Apex 65 kNt 215 Wlleiotl 50 Slick 66
Grayson 70 jokuvaan 61 mark f1 214 scheivlak 49 arcsine 60
Wlleiotl 70 Crazy Canuck 60 August 211 skylark68 49 Wlleiotl 60
kismet 67 fisichella_2001 60 Kooper 210 * Current 47 coyoteBR 58
fisichella_2001 66 jeze 55 LB 210 coyoteBR 45 scheivlak 54
AcuraF1 65 Kooper 52 kismet 201 jonnyw01 45 Viceroy 52
Brawn BGP 001 63 Ladaman 52 Crazy Canuck 200 Viceroy 45 kismet 51
gerry nassar 63 Grayson 51 Grayson 199 gerry nassar 42 Apex 50
Costaz 56 KWSN - DSM 47 fisichella_2001 198 August 41 Crazy Canuck 50
D82 55 mark f1 46 skylark68 195 kNt 41 jokuvaan 50
Estwald 55 Viceroy 46 Viceroy 194 Anderis 40 Grayson 45
scheivlak 55 D82 45 paranoik0 193 Apex 40 Estwald 43
mark f1 53 kismet 45 arcsine 191 Estwald 40 Kooper 39
arcsine 52 Slick 45 Estwald 190 mark f1 40 Ladaman 39
dnbn 52 Brawn BGP 001 43 Wlleiotl 190 Costaz 37 mark f1 37
jonnyw01 50 dnbn 43 AcuraF1 186 paranoik0 35 KWSN - DSM 36
* Forecast 49 AcuraF1 42 jonnyw01 183 Slick 35 skylark68 34
jeze 48 Estwald 42 gerry nassar 182 arcsine 32 Makarias 33
Viceroy 48 gerry nassar 42 Costaz 181 AcuraF1 31 Costaz 30
kNt 40 Costaz 41 Ladaman 180 an1res 30 shays 28
* Current 39 paranoik0 41 scheivlak 178 D82 29 dnbn 27
Makarias 37 jonnyw01 40 Anderis 177 Crazy Canuck 25 LB 26
shays 35 shays 40 dnbn 176 Makarias 25 jonnyw01 25
an1res 30 LB 35 * Forecast 162 shays 22 kNt 24
LB 30 scheivlak 32 Apex 160 jeze 17 * Forecast 22
August 25 Wlleiotl 30 D82 156 Brawn BGP 001 15 * Current 17
coyoteBR 14 Makarias 29 jokuvaan 156 LB 10 August 14
KWSN - DSM 13 August 4 * Current 128 KWSN - DSM 9 an1res 10

Massa still needs at least two races just to beat D82 and jokuvaan. Hopefully the Korean GP manages to go ahead as planned!

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast
skylark68 1648,3 -25,9
dnbn 1648,1 0,6
an1res 1641,9 12,6
Apex 1636,3 -2,2
mark f1 1628,1 7,5
Costaz 1627,1 2,4
arcsine 1618,7 7,2
kismet 1618,5 1,6
jonnyw01 1615,2 14,0
LB 1611,3 -13,7
Viceroy 1598,9 -8,3
Anderis 1598,2 -5,2
scheivlak 1589,1 -2,7
jokuvaan 1589,0 0,1
Crazy Canuck 1587,6 11,5
shays 1586,5 -23,3
Makarias 1574,7 -14,8
gerry nassar 1572,7 -3,0
Wlleiotl 1569,9 17,0
kNt 1568,1 -30,6
Grayson 1564,2 -9,2
Brawn BGP 001 1561,6 9,0
paranoik0 1557,1 -7,5
AcuraF1 1553,7 5,0
Slick 1545,2 -24,1
Estwald 1541,7 -6,7
fisichella_2001 1538,7 1,3
D82 1536,1 6,3
August 1536,0 -5,4
Ladaman 1532,1 -7,4
Kooper 1478,1 -7,4
jeze 1469,0 -10,4
coyoteBR 1464,8 -12,3
KWSN - DSM 1378,3 5,3

Much much closer at the forecast front, as forecast points move from Hamilton to Alonso. Helpful for an1res, bad news for skylark68, something in between for dnbn!