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[Makarias]

The standings after the Japan GP:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) skylark68 1516 63
2) dnbn 1491 73
3) an1res 1480 75
4) Anderis 1479 55
= Apex 1479 74
6) kismet 1477 67
= mark f1 1477 68
8) arcsine 1475 67
9) Viceroy 1474 67
10) Costaz 1466 82
= kNt 1466 45
12) jonnyw01 1463 79
13) AcuraF1 1452 69
14) gerry nassar 1451 50
15) Grayson 1448 47
16) Crazy Canuck 1445 48
17) shays 1438 73
18) LB 1437 77
19) jokuvaan 1433 48
20) Makarias 1428 69
21) Wlleiotl 1422 67
22) fisichella_2001 1420 63
23) Estwald 1419 34
24) scheivlak 1416 67
25) Slick 1411 64
26) Brawn BGP 001 1406 54
27) paranoik0 1404 67
28) Ladaman 1396 61
29) D82 1389 66
30) August 1376 65
31) coyoteBR 1366 49
32) Kooper 1342 42
33) jeze 1334 48
34) KWSN - DSM 1233 52

Outstanding result of the race belongs to Costaz, who happens to be the only one to have placed any points on Heidfeld!

The entries

The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
Heid 4533,3 100,0 34
Kubi 228,0 121,3 34
Webb 136,4 91,3 33
Petr 126,2 46,3 22
Suti 120,1 60,3 24
Butt 106,1 81,8 21
Vett 99,5 72,5 18
Rosb 91,7 70,5 12
Alon 85,8 66,2 5
Hami 80,8 61,7 1
Barr 73,0 40,6 8
Mass 62,7 44,3 0
Koba 58,9 24,8 4
Liuz 50,1 12,9 8
Hülk 35,1 18,3 2
Schu 30,4 18,6 0
Buem 28,9 6,7 2
Algu 27,1 11,1 2
dlRo 14,1 5,6 1

Jenson Button and Nick Heidfeld make it past their 100% expectation marks, and Quick Nick also becomes a 100% surprise while at it! Vettel next for 100% expectation it seems.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2010 this is 34.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Vettel Webber Alonso Button Hamilton
August 283 * Potential 295 jeze 310 * Potential 264 Apex 310
* Potential 281 * Forecast 261 an1res 290 shays 230 jeze 295
Costaz 255 an1res 240 * Potential 281 * Forecast 224 Costaz 286
kismet 247 * Current 220 Costaz 280 Slick 224 August 283
Apex 245 kismet 201 Brawn BGP 001 278 Brawn BGP 001 220 Kooper 274
* Forecast 245 dnbn 187 Makarias 276 jokuvaan 220 * Potential 267
an1res 244 kNt 184 KWSN - DSM 271 KWSN - DSM 216 Slick 265
Wlleiotl 240 skylark68 184 August 270 jonnyw01 210 Makarias 264
jonnyw01 228 Costaz 183 Kooper 264 Costaz 202 paranoik0 262
scheivlak 226 Anderis 182 Ladaman 264 skylark68 202 LB 260
dnbn 221 LB 180 Wlleiotl 260 LB 200 Ladaman 256
D82 220 arcsine 176 D82 259 Makarias 196 shays 255
LB 220 mark f1 176 mark f1 259 mark f1 191 scheivlak 254
Viceroy 219 AcuraF1 172 scheivlak 253 Apex 190 kNt 249
paranoik0 217 jonnyw01 172 LB 250 dnbn 189 skylark68 249
arcsine 213 August 171 paranoik0 249 * Current 189 D82 240
AcuraF1 212 Crazy Canuck 170 arcsine 246 Anderis 184 dnbn 233
Slick 209 Viceroy 167 * Forecast 245 kNt 182 mark f1 232
* Current 206 jokuvaan 166 Crazy Canuck 240 Crazy Canuck 180 Grayson 230
Anderis 202 Makarias 166 jonnyw01 239 Estwald 180 * Forecast 228
fisichella_2001 202 Estwald 165 AcuraF1 238 AcuraF1 179 Estwald 226
shays 202 gerry nassar 165 fisichella_2001 236 gerry nassar 179 coyoteBR 225
Ladaman 200 Grayson 165 dnbn 233 Viceroy 174 gerry nassar 225
Makarias 198 shays 160 shays 232 Grayson 170 arcsine 222
Grayson 195 Brawn BGP 001 156 Apex 230 scheivlak 169 jokuvaan 221
mark f1 195 paranoik0 155 gerry nassar 230 coyoteBR 163 Wlleiotl 220
coyoteBR 190 Slick 154 kismet 227 August 162 Brawn BGP 001 219
Crazy Canuck 190 Apex 150 coyoteBR 224 kismet 160 Anderis 216
jokuvaan 190 Wlleiotl 150 kNt 222 Wlleiotl 160 jonnyw01 214
skylark68 190 D82 147 skylark68 222 Ladaman 155 Crazy Canuck 210
gerry nassar 187 fisichella_2001 142 Viceroy 214 arcsine 148 fisichella_2001 209
jeze 187 scheivlak 139 * Current 206 jeze 144 Viceroy 202
Kooper 181 Kooper 131 Grayson 197 paranoik0 143 AcuraF1 198
Brawn BGP 001 178 Ladaman 130 Estwald 195 an1res 140 KWSN - DSM 196
Estwald 175 jeze 123 Slick 184 D82 139 kismet 192
kNt 170 KWSN - DSM 98 Anderis 169 fisichella_2001 134 * Current 192
KWSN - DSM 106 coyoteBR 77 jokuvaan 156 Kooper 119 an1res 190

Vettel takes a bunch of new scalps and Hamilton his first for the year. It happens late when expectations are high...

Guesses on P6-P10:

Schumacher Kobayashi de la Rosa Barrichello Buemi
coyoteBR 289 kNt 108 kNt 106 * Potential 116 KWSN - DSM 119
KWSN - DSM 286 * Potential 102 D82 98 Crazy Canuck 100 * Potential 83
Estwald 230 Estwald 72 AcuraF1 87 Anderis 86 coyoteBR 65
Kooper 226 fisichella_2001 71 * Potential 81 skylark68 80 Wlleiotl 50
dnbn 205 gerry nassar 70 jonnyw01 75 jokuvaan 75 Estwald 38
Ladaman 205 scheivlak 67 August 62 paranoik0 73 fisichella_2001 38
LB 200 Ladaman 62 Estwald 60 Slick 72 Kooper 37
scheivlak 196 Viceroy 61 Grayson 60 Kooper 71 Ladaman 37
gerry nassar 193 jokuvaan 60 Crazy Canuck 55 Ladaman 71 Apex 36
paranoik0 192 Grayson 55 dnbn 53 Apex 70 Anderis 31
August 191 D82 54 kismet 49 Grayson 70 Makarias 31
D82 187 Anderis 51 Kooper 49 Wlleiotl 70 jokuvaan 30
Makarias 182 Costaz 51 Ladaman 49 kismet 67 paranoik0 30
Crazy Canuck 180 jonnyw01 50 fisichella_2001 45 fisichella_2001 66 kismet 29
shays 180 LB 50 Wlleiotl 45 AcuraF1 65 mark f1 28
jonnyw01 170 Wlleiotl 50 Makarias 44 Brawn BGP 001 63 Slick 28
Wlleiotl 170 arcsine 49 Viceroy 42 gerry nassar 63 AcuraF1 27
Viceroy 167 Kooper 47 arcsine 41 Costaz 56 scheivlak 26
mark f1 162 skylark68 44 Brawn BGP 001 40 D82 55 dnbn 25
arcsine 160 mark f1 43 mark f1 37 Estwald 55 Viceroy 25
Grayson 160 AcuraF1 42 paranoik0 37 scheivlak 55 arcsine 20
Brawn BGP 001 156 Slick 36 Slick 34 mark f1 53 Crazy Canuck 20
Costaz 156 Brawn BGP 001 35 gerry nassar 33 arcsine 52 skylark68 20
jeze 154 paranoik0 35 an1res 30 dnbn 52 LB 18
fisichella_2001 151 jeze 34 skylark68 28 jonnyw01 50 shays 18
AcuraF1 150 KWSN - DSM 33 jeze 25 * Forecast 49 Brawn BGP 001 17
jokuvaan 150 August 32 scheivlak 25 jeze 48 gerry nassar 15
kNt 150 Makarias 32 shays 25 Viceroy 48 Grayson 15
skylark68 150 * Forecast 32 LB 22 * Current 41 August 14
Slick 146 kismet 30 Anderis 21 kNt 40 jeze 14
kismet 144 shays 30 Apex 20 Makarias 37 jonnyw01 13
an1res 140 coyoteBR 27 Costaz 18 shays 35 * Forecast 10
Anderis 139 * Current 27 KWSN - DSM 17 an1res 30 an1res 10
Apex 130 Apex 22 coyoteBR 11 LB 30 Costaz 8
* Potential 129 dnbn 21 * Forecast 7 August 25 * Current 8
* Forecast 64 Crazy Canuck 20 * Current 6 coyoteBR 14 D82 7
* Current 54 an1res 15 jokuvaan 0 KWSN - DSM 13 kNt 2

With three races to go, Schumacher hasn't even got a chance to beat the lowest of expectations. You couldn't have imagined that four years ago, if you expected him to ever come back... I haven't prepared a column for Heidfeld this season, so Pedro takes his place here (Nick's column would have been all zeroes, except for Costaz' three points).

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast
Apex 1644,8 8,5
Costaz 1644,0 16,9
an1res 1642,8 0,9
skylark68 1642,3 -6,0
dnbn 1639,0 -9,1
mark f1 1626,3 -1,8
kismet 1621,9 3,5
arcsine 1617,9 -0,8
jonnyw01 1614,3 -1,0
LB 1606,1 -5,2
scheivlak 1587,3 -1,8
Viceroy 1586,4 -12,4
Anderis 1585,1 -13,1
shays 1581,9 -4,6
Wlleiotl 1581,3 11,4
jokuvaan 1580,3 -8,8
Makarias 1573,6 -1,2
gerry nassar 1570,7 -2,0
Crazy Canuck 1570,5 -17,1
kNt 1563,9 -4,2
Brawn BGP 001 1561,9 0,3
Grayson 1556,5 -7,7
paranoik0 1555,3 -1,8
August 1552,6 16,6
AcuraF1 1551,7 -2,0
Slick 1540,7 -4,5
D82 1539,8 3,7
fisichella_2001 1535,1 -3,7
Estwald 1531,6 -10,1
Ladaman 1530,3 -1,8
Kooper 1476,3 -1,8
jeze 1466,6 -2,4
coyoteBR 1459,5 -5,3
KWSN - DSM 1371,1 -7,2

Largely minor changes in the forecast that right now promises a nail-biting five-way battle to the title! Sounds familiar, doesn't it?